OT: Spring Warmth, 3/5-3/12+? Winter 2025-26 - Patterns and Potential Winter Storms
- Thread starter RU848789
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Thanks for the info, I'll be keeping an eye out for more info as models change and you interpret what could happen.
Yeah, thanks to RU848789.
I gotta tell you this one that their projecting for Sunday is making me more nervous than these sort of things usually do.
Because if it edges further north and becomes more of an ice event like they are calling for a little south of us, the ice on power lines and tree limbs could knock out power for days for large parts of the state…at a time when low temperatures are going to be in the single digits from Monday through Saturday and high temps not getting out of the mid 20’s. Add 6-12” possibly more of snow on top of that and I’d say he has legitimate concern.
I'm not sure. Perhaps it has something to do with age or the lack of recent big time snow storms that has me uncomfortable reading this thread and watching the weather reports that project a large amount of snow coming my way. Perhaps I'm worried about maybe losing power. Or me doing something stupid as far as clearing the snow.
I don't know. All I know is I really enjoyed the lack of significant snow in recent winters.
BTW, it's probably all my fault as I was recently gloating to my sister who moved to Florida 25 years ago that we don't get snow in New Jersey anymore. As Ralph Kramden would say..."I got a BIG MOUTH."
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For higher snow totals yes, not for higher frozen precip totals, by mass, as no model has plain rain for anyone other than a short period at the end in SENJ. And snow + sleet is just as impactful as all snow (mass is the key impact factor for driving and snow removal), but maybe not as pretty or as fun. And even in the sleetier scenarios, which can't be ruled out, there would almost certainly still be 6-8" of snow thump on the front end and that is modeled to come down in less than 6 hours, so it'll be a fun show after sunrise. But all snow is still very much on the table, as per the NWS. Even the normally conservative TWC has DC to Boston getting 12-18".
DJ Sliink Ft Gov. Phil Murphy - Jersey Anthem ( We're from jersey baby and you're not ! )
DJ Sliink Ft Gov. Phil Murphy - Jersey Anthem ( We're from jersey baby and you're not ! )
on.soundcloud.com
On TWC earlier tonight - forecast was around 12-15 inches for CNJ when they forecasted totals by county etc. I was a bit surprised as well how bullish TWC was.
Local Mets are in 6- 10 + range playing it conservatively !
That's fair to play it conservatively, but Lee Goldberg did say 6-12" was 40% likely, but 12-18" was 30% likely with 3-6" 20% and <3" 10% for Central Park; he said he'll have an actual map/forecast tomorrow.
0Z models have completed their runs and are summarized below; comments are generally for between 78 and 176/195 in EPA/CNJ and also include NENJ/NYC near 95. Bottom line is the ICON and GFS moved much snowier, the AIGFS, UK, and Euro-AIFS stayed snowy and the Euro was 90% snow ending as sleet. Only the CMC still has appreciable sleet for CNJ/NYC and south of there. IMO, this builds confidence in the higher snowfall totals the NBM (model blend) has been showing (13-18" for almost everyone) and at the very least makes getting 8"+ a fairly high probability as every model (even the CMC shows an initial heavy thump of snow from about 6 am to noon on Sunday. My guess is that if we see a fairly similar model suite tomorrow, we're going to see pro mets posting forecasts of 6-12" or 8-14" and noting that 12-18" is possible. We'll see then.
- The ICON is a snow bomb with 12-16" at 10:1 (would be 14-21" at 13:1) of 276/195 and 8-12" S of there, due to sleet (not rain)
- The GFS made a big jump snowier with 10-15" vs. 5-7" at 18Z, due to a much stronger coastal (would be 13-20" at 13:1); some sleet near the end for Philly/SNJ, but no rain
- The AIGFS stayed steady, with 10-12" at 10:1 (would be 13-16" at 13:1); some sleet for the last 20% of the precip S of 276/195.
- The CMC is half snow and half sleet, like it was at 12Z as it's track goes right over SNJ; has 5-7" thump for everyone in the region, then about 1" of sleet and near the end of the precip it shows 0.2-0.3" of freezing rain for the 95 corridor and rain at the coast. Clearly an outlier, but like for 12Z the Op run is an outlier to its ensemble mean, which has little sleet, so hard to put a lot of stock in the CMC yet.
- The UK stayed steady vs. 12Z, with 10-13" at 10:1 (13-17" at 13:1); Precip ends as some sleet for CNJ and rain for SNJ
- The Euro AIFS stayed steady vs. 18Z with 10-12" (13-16" at 13:1); precip ends as a little bit of sleet for CNJ and freezing drizzle for SNJ
- And the Euro had about 8-10" at 10:1 (10-13" at 13:1) before changing to sleet around 4 pm, with 90% of the precip having fallen; also was a bit less sleet than at 18Z.
- Finally, the 01Z NBM (model blend) shows 13-17" (at a ratio of about 13-14:1) region-wide, which is maybe 1" less than at 19Z and 12Z; however, it's a time lagged model (meaning it includes snowfall data from previous runs to minimize big swings) and with the models at 0Z being a bit snowier, overall than at 18Z and 12Z, it's possible the NBM goes back up a bit tomorrow.
- Note: the NBM snow map is below, but is not a forecast at all.
Well, my son texted us, he's booked an extra day in PR in case his Sunday flight is cancelled. He used his points credit card where you get your money back even in a last minute cancellation.
Well, my son texted us, he's booked an extra day in PR in case his Sunday flight is cancelled. He used his points credit card where you get your money back even in a last minute cancellation.
Mix of sleet and rain during 2nd half of storm will suppress snow totals per Mike Masco and per Rizzo on tv 12 in Monmouth / Ocean and Southern Middlesex Counties
4-6 inches for Monmouth and Ocean per Masco.
Up to 15 inches in North and NW NJ in areas that will have all snow.
4-6 inches for Monmouth and Ocean per Masco.
Up to 15 inches in North and NW NJ in areas that will have all snow.
NWS-Philly issued winter storm watches for heavy snow to sleet and freezing rain/rain for counties south of 276/195 and for all snow for counties north of that line, i.e., from western Montco/Bucks to Mercer to Monmouth and Ocean (surprised on Ocean being in that list) and north of those counties. New NWS-Philly discussion is below and while there is no snowfall forecast yet the discussion, they do discuss (bolded part) that there's a high probability of exceeding 10" even for the southern counties that eventually mix/changeover and they have a high probability for the counties north of 276/195 to exceed 10" and probably more; the NBM model is still showing 12-18" for the entire region except a bit less for just Cape May County.
However, at 6Z there are a couple of models that show a changeover to sleet up to 78 after ~8-12" of snow with maybe 1-2" of sleet for the counties between 276/195 and 78, whereas most have all snow or all snow with just a touch of sleet at the end of the precip (and 12"+ of snow). Going to be an interesting modeling battle from now until the event on when and if and where any mixing/changeovers occur and how much snow falls before any mix/changeover.
One comment for those who don't love snow: I think you'd rather have 15" of snow (which is easy to move) than 10" of snow, 1" of sleet and 0.2-0.3" of freezing rain on top, as the latter will lead to compaction and a fairly quick freeze into a potentially solid mass within a few hours, as temps in areas where we see freezing rain/rain will dop well below 32F within a few hours of the precip ending - temps everywhere will be in the mid-20s everywhere by Monday at 7 am and will stay there during the day with Monday night lows around -5 to +5F - and it might not reach 20F again until next Sunday.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
547 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026
KEY MESSAGE 2...A significant winter storm appears increasingly
likely Saturday night through Monday morning. Substantial snow
accumulations will be possible across much of the area. Some
mixed precipitation is expected as well.
A closed mid-level low off the southwestern coast of CA will
gradually open and pivot northeastward, eventually phasing with
the northern jet as it approaches our region. This will place
our entire region in the left exit region of a potent trough.
Synoptic scale ascent is expected to begin overspreading the
region by Saturday evening. As surface low pressure begins to
approach from the southwest, precipitation is expected to begin
overspreading the region from southwest to northeast Saturday
night. Given the very cold airmass in place initially,
precipitation is expected to start as all snow. As the vertical
column moistens, snow rates may quickly become heavy, with rapid
accumulations possible.
During the day on Sunday, additional surface cyclogenesis is
expected off the Mid-Atlantic coast, with the surface low
tracking northeastward. The primary remaining uncertainty with
this forecast is the exact low track. In general, guidance
continues to suggest a low track fairly to the coast, with the
GFS as a relative outlier a little bit farther out to sea. Given
this low track, it is becoming increasingly likely that sleet,
freezing rain, and even plain rain will enter the picture for
parts of the area during the day on Sunday. Right now, this
appears most likely from about the Philadelphia metro and south,
and perhaps farther north for the Coastal Plain. While this
could decrease snow totals some, exactly where mixing occurs
remains uncertain, and confidence remains high in significant
snow accumulations. In addition, mixed precipitation would still
cause significant issues. For this region, DESI probabilities
of exceedance for warning criteria snow (5 inches) are over 90%.
Depending on how soon, and to what extent, mixing occurs,
amounts could exceed 10 inches for this area. Outside of the
aforementioned areas, all snow is expected, with significant
accumulations likely. DESI probabilities of exceedance for
warning level snow (6 inches) across the remainder of our
eastern PA and northern NJ counties are over 90%. In fact,
probabilities of exceeding 10 inches are 70-90%.
While this event remains a few days out, confidence is higher
than usual for this range in significant impacts across the
region. Specifics will continue to be refined as the event
approaches, but confidence is high enough in warning level snow
to issue a Winter Storm Watch for the entire area, starting at 7
PM Saturday and continuing through early Monday afternoon. Stay
tuned for future updates as this has the potential to be a very
impactful storm for much of the area.
However, at 6Z there are a couple of models that show a changeover to sleet up to 78 after ~8-12" of snow with maybe 1-2" of sleet for the counties between 276/195 and 78, whereas most have all snow or all snow with just a touch of sleet at the end of the precip (and 12"+ of snow). Going to be an interesting modeling battle from now until the event on when and if and where any mixing/changeovers occur and how much snow falls before any mix/changeover.
One comment for those who don't love snow: I think you'd rather have 15" of snow (which is easy to move) than 10" of snow, 1" of sleet and 0.2-0.3" of freezing rain on top, as the latter will lead to compaction and a fairly quick freeze into a potentially solid mass within a few hours, as temps in areas where we see freezing rain/rain will dop well below 32F within a few hours of the precip ending - temps everywhere will be in the mid-20s everywhere by Monday at 7 am and will stay there during the day with Monday night lows around -5 to +5F - and it might not reach 20F again until next Sunday.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
547 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026
KEY MESSAGE 2...A significant winter storm appears increasingly
likely Saturday night through Monday morning. Substantial snow
accumulations will be possible across much of the area. Some
mixed precipitation is expected as well.
A closed mid-level low off the southwestern coast of CA will
gradually open and pivot northeastward, eventually phasing with
the northern jet as it approaches our region. This will place
our entire region in the left exit region of a potent trough.
Synoptic scale ascent is expected to begin overspreading the
region by Saturday evening. As surface low pressure begins to
approach from the southwest, precipitation is expected to begin
overspreading the region from southwest to northeast Saturday
night. Given the very cold airmass in place initially,
precipitation is expected to start as all snow. As the vertical
column moistens, snow rates may quickly become heavy, with rapid
accumulations possible.
During the day on Sunday, additional surface cyclogenesis is
expected off the Mid-Atlantic coast, with the surface low
tracking northeastward. The primary remaining uncertainty with
this forecast is the exact low track. In general, guidance
continues to suggest a low track fairly to the coast, with the
GFS as a relative outlier a little bit farther out to sea. Given
this low track, it is becoming increasingly likely that sleet,
freezing rain, and even plain rain will enter the picture for
parts of the area during the day on Sunday. Right now, this
appears most likely from about the Philadelphia metro and south,
and perhaps farther north for the Coastal Plain. While this
could decrease snow totals some, exactly where mixing occurs
remains uncertain, and confidence remains high in significant
snow accumulations. In addition, mixed precipitation would still
cause significant issues. For this region, DESI probabilities
of exceedance for warning criteria snow (5 inches) are over 90%.
Depending on how soon, and to what extent, mixing occurs,
amounts could exceed 10 inches for this area. Outside of the
aforementioned areas, all snow is expected, with significant
accumulations likely. DESI probabilities of exceedance for
warning level snow (6 inches) across the remainder of our
eastern PA and northern NJ counties are over 90%. In fact,
probabilities of exceeding 10 inches are 70-90%.
While this event remains a few days out, confidence is higher
than usual for this range in significant impacts across the
region. Specifics will continue to be refined as the event
approaches, but confidence is high enough in warning level snow
to issue a Winter Storm Watch for the entire area, starting at 7
PM Saturday and continuing through early Monday afternoon. Stay
tuned for future updates as this has the potential to be a very
impactful storm for much of the area.
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lol, Masco way overpredicted the 12/27 storm and this past weekend's snow, so now he's gun shy
TWC still holding firm on 12-18 inches for CNJ even with sleet mix which I think is quite bullish. Expected to see 6-12 ish range.
This is what I've been saying about the "floor" being pretty high (graphic on the left with the 1 in 10 chance, low end amounts) and, of course, we know the ceiling is quite high (graphic on right). Pretty bold for the NWS and probably a little higher than I'd go on the floor (been saying 8"), but nice to see them putting this out there; it's in their briefing.
chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf
chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf
Forecasts all over the place for Monmouth County:
Masco : 4-6 inches.
TWC : 12-18 inches.
Fox Weather : 18-24 inches.
Masco : 4-6 inches.
TWC : 12-18 inches.
Fox Weather : 18-24 inches.
we should have a good idea of snow totals sometime Monday
Figure by Tuesday, they'll be able to have exact amounts
Seems like every time I look more and more mixing working up north according to the models. It wouldn’t surprise me if thy cut totals drastically by Saturday night
Somewhere between 4-24. Hopefully it’s closer to 4.Forecasts all over the place for Monmouth County:
Masco : 4-6 inches.
TWC : 12-18 inches.
Fox Weather : 18-24 inches.
thank youForecasts all over the place for Monmouth County:
Masco : 4-6 inches.
TWC : 12-18 inches.
Fox Weather : 18-24 inches.
I've pored over every model and I don't think the amount of mixing has changed appreciably - a few models have it after 7-9" (south of 78), but most have it later, after 12-16" or so (assuming 13:1 ratios roughly), which is why the NBM still shows 13-17" region wide. But, the chance that it verifies is why I would start low with an 8-12" forecast and just note that 12-18" is possible if the mixing is significantly delayed. I'd rather do that than put out a 12-18" forecast now and have to backtrack later.
We're going to get the same amount of frozen precip by mass almost no matter what - I think you'd rather get 15" of fluffy, easy to move snow than 6" of snow, 2" of sleet and 1/3" of freezing rain, which will be ugly and freeze solid by Monday morning. 4" simply isn't on the table right now - Masco is saying 4-6" of sleet/snow, which is something like 4" of snow then 2" of sleet (equivalent mass to 6" of snow), then 1/4-1/2" of freezing rain, which will be absorbed into the snow sleet making for a heavy slushy mass that freezes shortly after the storm.
To my very amateur understanding, it seems the key will be where the surface low tracks and how intense it is. Less intense and more west a lot more sleet. More intense and further east a lot more snow.
It has trended north for several days - originally it looked like it would be suppressed to our south with just modest amounts of snow in our area. But the models don't "learn" during an event. They simply start over every 6 hours with a new set of initial and boundary conditions and the models then run - it's not "misreading" it's that the reality at t=0 is now different than it was 6 hours previously in the previous model run. We now know a ton more about where everything is to start the models than we did 2-4 days ago. And there's zero reason for the future track to be more or less north, per se, since each model run is an independent event, unaffected by previous model runs, so it could move more north or south or stay the same.
Actually, the more intense/dynamic the storm is, the more it drives warm air further north causing sleet for us; the GFS, for example is weaker than the Euro right now, so it has all snow, while the Euro has a lot of snow and then sleet. The biggest key right now is there's a primary low heading from Baja towards the Ohio Valley eventually and then the models show that low dying off and a new low being forrmed off the coast of NC/VA, which often happens in such setups. If the primary low remains stronger longer and is to our west that brings in more warm air and more sleet; snow lovers want that primary low to die quickly and the coastal low to get stronger, as that would lead to more snow.
Am I correct in thinking this storm is something I need to start paying attention to up here in Maine?
most of state in mid to upper 40s. Im at 47 and certainly Knight shift is lucky to be at 50 right now and some low 50s being reported
No huge changes at 6Z or 12Z, really. The ICON got sleety (half snow/half sleet for most), but the CMC got a bit less sleety and the GFS got a bit snowier, while the UK held serve, as did the AIGFS, Euro-AIFS and Euro, for the most part. And the long range mesoscale models, NAM and RGEM and RRFSA didn't show anything earth shatteringly different, plus they're way beyond their useful range. I don't see anyone changing their forecasts based on 12Z right now, so folks who were low (those showing 6-10" for example) will likely stay low and the cowboys at the NWS (8-12" min and 20+" max) and TWC (12-18" area wide, except less at the coast south of Toms River) will likely stay high. Not going to do the model bullet points (no time today). Also, the new NBM is still showing an area-wide 12-18", which still surprises me a bit (I think it's too high). The NWS did issue their first map, which only goes through 7 am and it looks solid to me; I'm also including, again the low and high cases from the NWS (10% probability of each) for completeness.
Personally, my gut tells me to to go with 8-12" area wide this early in the game, but noting that 12-18" (with good ratios) is on the table if no mixing/changeover, but so is a change to sleet and maybe freezing rain for most, at least up to 78 or maybe 80, and that would keep depth under 12" (although it would be the same mass as 12-18" of good ratio snow), which is the 10% chance low case from the NWS (8-12"), since the front end thump will very likely deliver at least 6" of 10:1 snow for all before any changeover and that's 8-9" at 13-15:1 ratio, which is what most models are showing. Of course the models could still change towards more sleet/ZR so most don't get the "floor" of 8" (maybe just 4-8" snow/sleet) except way NW or they could follow the NBM and a few of the non-sleety models and move towards 12-18" for most. Obviously, at some point one would need to make a choice and have one prediction, but I don't see why that has to be 60 hours before the start of the event (I'd wait until 4 am tomorrow, 48 hrs before the event). Plenty of time to iron out the forecast.
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wow, you are petty - care to post about how you downplayed both 1/17 and 1/18? And every other storm in history?
its not petty since you said that we might not get over 32 for 2 weeks and we were 33 in alot of places on Monday and above freezzing yesterday with highs called in mid 40s for Thursday...petty is you saying knightshift would be lucky to get out of the 30s. Instead of leaving my comment alone you tried to downplay the idea of a warm Thursday..in fact we are overperforming right now bigly...53 the highest in NJ and im at 47. if you were concerned with petty or not you never would have been petty in the first place
I'm in shorts. 48 here in sunny Raritan Twp. I heard the MILFS at the Hillsborough Deli are wearing their thongs.