OT: Spring Warmth, 3/5-3/12+? Winter 2025-26 - Patterns and Potential Winter Storms
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As of about 2 pm, when the snow was nearly done here, I measured 2.2", which was a huge surprise - beautiful fluffy dendrites fell heavily from about 1:15 to 1:45 pm; we're up to 13.4" on the season. After measuring, I "broomed" mostly as the snow was easy to push and then went shopping (party tonight at our house as we had to postpone our NYE party until tonight as my wife had COVID, but is fine now). Temp is up to 34F now and some melting is going on, but the side streets are all snow covered still.
You got beat worse than the Scarlet Knights men's basketball team on the road.
That's because they largely didn't even pay attention to the possibilities shown in several models (talking about Sunday mostly) and some didn't even mentioned that there was some modest chance of a more significant system (which I've been talking about for 2+ days and it's been all over the weather boards); Lee Goldberg, to his credit did mention the chance but said it was low probability. Many of them are stuck in only looking at the GFS and Euro and ignoring the AI models, which are performing the best this winter.
Very few would've predicted how much today's snow overperformed as almost every model until this morning wasn't showing much accumulation south of 78 and SE of 287 in NENJ.
Also, I've spent years talking about how good most of the NWS and media mets are and rarely tear them down (like you do all the time) - I think I'm allowed to be critical once in awhile.
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As expected, advisories are up for 2-4" of snow for all of CNJ/EPA north of 276/195 and for all of NNJ (except Sussex/Warren/W Passaic; also no WWA's for the Poconos or Lehigh Valley - 1-2" is expected in those locations) and NYC/Hudson Valley/LI. The WWA's are for 1-3" for the counties on either side of the Delaware south of 276/195. Coastal NJ only expects 1-2" due to mixing (and even less for far SENJ. There is some potential for this storm to overperform those numbers, based on some models showing up to 5-6" in some locations, especially NE of 195 in CNJ and towards NENJ/NYC. We'll see. No NWS maps up yet.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
252 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026
KEY MESSAGE 2...A coastal low is now expected to bring widespread
snow accumulation to the area for Sunday with 1 to 4 inches
generally expected.
The latest indications are that the coastal low expected for Sunday
will track a bit farther north and west than earlier thinking
bringing a more widespread accumulating snowfall event to the area.
Overnight tonight into early Sunday, a shot of upper level energy
will be rounding the based of the long wave upper level trough over
the east helping to initiate surface cyclogenesis near the SE coast
along the baroclinic zone. Expect that associated precipitation with
with this developing low will start to break out over the area
around dawn from SW to NE. Given the lack of any "fresh" arctic air
over the area along with the cloud cover, temperatures by late
tonight will only be down into the 20s to around 30 north of the I-
95 corridor and in the low to mid 30s for areas along and SE here.
As a result, current thinking is precip will likely start as rain or
a rain/snow mix near the coast with even some mixing as far N/W as
the I-95 corridor possible. However as we progress through the day
Sunday the low will continue to deepen and move north and east off
the coast with the center tracking by well to our east. As this
occurs, precip should intensify somewhat through the late morning
into the early afternoon with the system also infusing with an
arctic boundary coming in from the west and shifting winds to more
of a N/NW direction. The upshot of this as the precip should
transition to mainly just snow through the late morning into the
afternoon as temperatures hold fairly steady or even start to fall.
With the shift in the system a bit farther north and west it now
appears areas near and S/E of the urban corridor will see around .25
to .50 inches of liquid. The initial rain mix will keep snow amounts
down near the coast where amounts of around .5 to 1.5 inches are
expected. However this setup now looks to put the jackpot near the I-
95 corridor and adjacent zones on either side just NW and SE. As a
result, we`ve issued a Winter Weather Advisory now in effect from
6AM to 8 PM Sunday for these zones across the heart of our CWA where
2 to 4 inches of snow can generally be expected. North and west of
here across the Lehigh Valley into the southern Poconos and extreme
NW NJ generally expect around 1 to 2 inches of snow.
you said 6 hours ago your area wouldn’t sniff 2 inches.
You were wrong. Take the L and give numbers the W.
2020-2021, where I got about 43" of snow at our house and most of the area was above normal (28" in NYC; think it's 26" in NB) to well above normal. 4 lousy winters since then.
We got 3” of heavy snow. Great snowball or snowman stuff.
New neighbor across the street pays two teenagers to clear their driveway. I was out clearing mine and I watched the two boys struggle hard to push their big snowblower up the block, over the snow on the uncleared sidewalks.
All the while thinking of the Progressive Insurance TV ads. “Don’t turn into your father. Don’t go over and tell them if they turn their snowblower on they can stroll behind it.”
New neighbor across the street pays two teenagers to clear their driveway. I was out clearing mine and I watched the two boys struggle hard to push their big snowblower up the block, over the snow on the uncleared sidewalks.
All the while thinking of the Progressive Insurance TV ads. “Don’t turn into your father. Don’t go over and tell them if they turn their snowblower on they can stroll behind it.”
Exactly. So 2 inches falls into the 2-4 range - a range you said your area wouldn’t see.
The 18z nam has a weird look for tomorrow and the gfs is east giving most an inch or so
Terrible models all over the place the last 72 hours
Terrible models all over the place the last 72 hours
I'm in that darker blue section just below the S in Somerville Rocktown Hill just at the west edge of the Sourland "Mountains". But thst elevation coming up from. The Delaware River Valley always produces a bit more snow.NWS - Philly finally put out their map. Nice, especially for me, lol.
Storms slide up the Amwell Ridge im told. Thats been my experience here last 35 years too.
NWS - Philly finally put out their map. Nice, especially for me, lol.
NWS - Philly finally put out their map. Nice, especially for me, lol.
The NBM (model blend) finally caught up to the models, lol. This looks just like the NWS map (not a coincidence). I'll take it. For those of you asking, expect snow/mix early in the morning through mid-morning (mix or even rain at the coast and a bit inland), then probably a bit of a lull and then the heaviest precip looks to be 2-7 pm. And it's going down into the low 20s Sunday night, so anything not shoveled will freeze solid. And then we start tracking next weekend's storm...
The mets on Eyewitness News are generally accurate- this is probably a good call for our area.
If your modeling the Mets.. I can tell you the storm will get off good, show promise, hype folks then fall short in the end.
If your modeling the Mets.. I can tell you the storm will get off good, show promise, hype folks then fall short in the end.
False. You said some terrible words about Amy Freeze in the past.
So let's start with the observations. As per the radar it looks like it started snowing here around 5:30 am and I got up around 7 am and went for a walk and as of 7:00 am we have 0.3" otg at 32F and snowing lightly to moderately. Everything is covered including the roads in our neighborhood. Hoping to overperform vs. my 3.1" forecast for my house yesterday morning. Pretty out there..
Updated NWS map is below - still expected to get 3-4" in the Edison area and the advisories for most of the 95 corridor from Philly to NYC are for 2-5" from the NWS-Philly office (3-5" for NENJ/NYC as they're in the NWS-NYC area). Less towards the coast due to mixing and even plain rain. Timing wise (for the 95 corridor in general) it looks like maybe 1-2" of snow through late morning with a lull for a few hours through mid-afternoon and then another 2" or so from 3-8 pm.
Updated NWS map is below - still expected to get 3-4" in the Edison area and the advisories for most of the 95 corridor from Philly to NYC are for 2-5" from the NWS-Philly office (3-5" for NENJ/NYC as they're in the NWS-NYC area). Less towards the coast due to mixing and even plain rain. Timing wise (for the 95 corridor in general) it looks like maybe 1-2" of snow through late morning with a lull for a few hours through mid-afternoon and then another 2" or so from 3-8 pm.
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Again with the lousy reading comprehension. I said "most" - Amy Freeze was lousy, as she wasn't a meteorologist and it showed in her forecasts and numerous errors in describing weather situations.
The map I posted has a few differences, thats strange.So let's start with the observations. As per the radar it looks like it started snowing here around 5:30 am and I got up around 7 am and went for a walk and as of 7:00 am we have 0.3" otg at 32F and snowing lightly to moderately. Everything is covered including the roads in our neighborhood. Hoping to overperform vs. my 3.1" forecast for my house yesterday morning. Pretty out there..
Updated NWS map is below - still expected to get 3-4" in the Edison area and the advisories for most of the 95 corridor from Philly to NYC are for 2-5" from the NWS-Philly office (3-5" for NENJ/NYC as they're in the NWS-NYC area). Less towards the coast due to mixing and even plain rain. Timing wise it looks like maybe 1-2" of snow through later morning with a lull for a few hours through mid-afternoon and then another 2" or so from 3-8 pm.
Snowing decent in Hamilton for now. Everything covered
I'm sure she used to collab with Golberg and other mets on Channel 7 especially when she worked together with him on broadcasts.
John Elliot has Euro only 1.3 but has gone to 3-5 general.
BTW... Freeze has a certificate from AMS and is NWA and AMSS approved. Your just splitting hairs.
Huge gorgeous dendrites falling now and we got 0.3" the last 1/2 hour with 1.0" new snow otg, as of 8:30 am. Down to 31F. Had some great fun trying to throw snowballs (great packing snow) into my disc golf basket in the backyard - don't quite get that sweet sound you get when you hit the chains with a disc.
The NWS is likely going to bust for areas SE of 95 in Monmouth/Ocean - it's been snowing a good 20-30 miles SE of the line they show on that map and a poster in Colts Neck is already reporting 1.3" when the NWS map would've had them with "mostly rain." Sure, the immediate coast will likely get rain/mix through mid-afternoon, but 5-10 miles inland is snowing now.
Good move by Elliot - just saw his updated forecast. I have a hard time seeing most of the area not getting at least 3" with some getting 5" or more, especially in areas like SE Middlesex/NW Monmouth assuming they stay all snow, as those areas should get the most precip.
Huge difference between an AMS certificate and a meteorology degree - not splitting hairs at all. I know she didn't make the forecasts she reported, but one could tell she often struggled explaining what was going on, especially for complext situations.
I’m supposed to drive from the Red Bank area NE Monmouth, to the Berkeley Heights area in Union county for an NFL playoff get together. We were going to leave around 1 and drive back around 7. Think we should scrap it or will the highways be good enough?