tariffs

baltimorened

All-American
May 29, 2001
7,969
5,971
113
Here's a Goldman Sachs analysis of who is carrying the cost of tariffs:

Goldman Sachs economists estimated that as of August, U.S. businesses were absorbing a net 51% of tariff costs, while American consumers were shouldering 37% of the burden. They also estimated that 9% of the cost was paid by foreign exporters, and about 3% was attributed to potential tariff evasion.

"Our analysis suggests that at the moment, U.S. businesses are bearing the largest share of the tariff costs because some tariffs have only recently gone into effect and it takes time to raise prices on consumers and negotiate lower import prices with foreign suppliers," the Goldman economists wrote.

The report went on to note that if the newly implemented and future tariffs end up having the same price impact as those that have taken effect so far, then American consumers will eventually be absorbing the majority of costs.

Interesting analysis.
 

UrHuckleberry

Heisman
Jun 2, 2024
10,568
22,712
113
Here's a Goldman Sachs analysis of who is carrying the cost of tariffs:

Goldman Sachs economists estimated that as of August, U.S. businesses were absorbing a net 51% of tariff costs, while American consumers were shouldering 37% of the burden. They also estimated that 9% of the cost was paid by foreign exporters, and about 3% was attributed to potential tariff evasion.

"Our analysis suggests that at the moment, U.S. businesses are bearing the largest share of the tariff costs because some tariffs have only recently gone into effect and it takes time to raise prices on consumers and negotiate lower import prices with foreign suppliers," the Goldman economists wrote.

The report went on to note that if the newly implemented and future tariffs end up having the same price impact as those that have taken effect so far, then American consumers will eventually be absorbing the majority of costs.

Interesting analysis.
All makes sense to me. Particularly with how many times tarriffs have been threatened then removed, and how many industries stocked up on things they'd need in advance of them taking effect. Would think as things seem to become more set or long term, you will need more and more shifted to the consumer as the analysis noted. All sounds like I'd expect.
 

baltimorened

All-American
May 29, 2001
7,969
5,971
113
All makes sense to me. Particularly with how many times tarriffs have been threatened then removed, and how many industries stocked up on things they'd need in advance of them taking effect. Would think as things seem to become more set or long term, you will need more and more shifted to the consumer as the analysis noted. All sounds like I'd expect.
yes, I think you're right. For me, it's hard to keep up with on again, off again tariffs. I understand the logic, but the implementation is a little strange. but, I guess that's Trump's style. it's going to be interesting to hear the arguments before the court. because, from what i've read, it really is the congress' authority to approve tariffs,
 

UrHuckleberry

Heisman
Jun 2, 2024
10,568
22,712
113
yes, I think you're right. For me, it's hard to keep up with on again, off again tariffs. I understand the logic, but the implementation is a little strange. but, I guess that's Trump's style. it's going to be interesting to hear the arguments before the court. because, from what i've read, it really is the congress' authority to approve tariffs,
Agree with that as well. I'm sure they could put forth a bill to give the President additional power over the implementation of tariffs, but they would need to actually do that.
 

yoshi121374

Heisman
Jan 26, 2006
13,194
22,932
113
yes, I think you're right. For me, it's hard to keep up with on again, off again tariffs. I understand the logic, but the implementation is a little strange. but, I guess that's Trump's style. it's going to be interesting to hear the arguments before the court. because, from what i've read, it really is the congress' authority to approve tariffs,
Agree with most of this. The chaos is sort of Trump's MO. He learned it from Roy Cohn.

Honestly, if you've never ready about Roy Cohn I recommend it. That dude was a horrendous human.
 

dpic73

Heisman
Jul 27, 2005
33,959
30,177
113
Sigh, this yo-yo pattern is getting old.

Dow drops 400 points on more trade fears, latest earnings: Live updates​


"Stocks fell on Wednesday as new trade developments out of Washington exacerbated concerns among investors about U.S.-China relations. Disappointing corporate earnings from companies including Texas Instruments and Netflix also weighed on the major averages.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded lower by 406 points, or 0.9%. The S&P 500 fell 1.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite shed 1.8%.
Stocks took a leg down Wednesday after Reuters, citing a U.S. official and three people briefed by U.S. authorities, reported that the White House is weighing curbs on exports to China made with U.S. software. The sources said the plan is not the only option being considered and might not proceed.

The developments come after President Donald Trump almost two weeks ago said that the U.S. would implement export restrictions by Nov. 1 on “any and all critical software.”


 
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yoshi121374

Heisman
Jan 26, 2006
13,194
22,932
113
Chill out. The S&P 500 is down 0.8% today and up 15% so far this year.

Wonder which of Trump's buddies bought on the low today?

That's been the pattern, say something dumb, tank the economy, say you weren't serious, fix it,sell, profit.
 
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dpic73

Heisman
Jul 27, 2005
33,959
30,177
113
Chill out. The S&P 500 is down 0.8% today and up 15% so far this year.
I'll do what I want but I'm getting tired of Trump yanking my portfolio around with his stupid and unnecessary mean tweets.
 

baltimorened

All-American
May 29, 2001
7,969
5,971
113
Got that also but interest rates have fallen too. I'm up 59% in the market since 2020 and I don't like losing my smart decisions because of his dumb ones.
sorry, I though you were concerned about the ups and downs in the market.
 

scotchtiger

Heisman
Dec 15, 2005
135,043
23,010
113
My company is bearing 100% of the tariff costs that we face. It's hurt margin and FCF this year, but zero impact to American consumers or the businesses we serve. FWIW.
 
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scotchtiger

Heisman
Dec 15, 2005
135,043
23,010
113
Is that a long term strategy or are you trying to wait it out or something?

Competitive environment doesn't give us many options in the immediate term. It will factor into overall margin profile and may have a slight impact in the future, but the uncertainty makes it difficult to really forecast.

We have also changed our supply chain to navigate around tariffs. For example, we have certain items that are made in China. Those items are shipped to Europe and "modified" enough to count that as the export country. That softens the impact a bit.
 

UrHuckleberry

Heisman
Jun 2, 2024
10,568
22,712
113
Competitive environment doesn't give us many options in the immediate term. It will factor into overall margin profile and may have a slight impact in the future, but the uncertainty makes it difficult to really forecast.

We have also changed our supply chain to navigate around tariffs. For example, we have certain items that are made in China. Those items are shipped to Europe and "modified" enough to count that as the export country. That softens the impact a bit.
Were yall thinking about going public, or recently went public, or something? Or am I totally misremembering?
 
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bdgan

All-American
Oct 12, 2021
5,201
5,026
113
I'll do what I want but I'm getting tired of Trump yanking my portfolio around with his stupid and unnecessary mean tweets.
The sad part is you don't even realize how ridiculous you sound. Biden oversaw a 20% drop in 2022 and an 11% drop in 2023.

Besides you've been quite clear that Trump is destroying the economy. What are you doing in the market anyway?
 
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bdgan

All-American
Oct 12, 2021
5,201
5,026
113
Wonder which of Trump's buddies bought on the low today?

That's been the pattern, say something dumb, tank the economy, say you weren't serious, fix it,sell, profit.
That's quite a conspiracy theory but if it's true YOU could buy after he says something dumb and buy after he says he wasn't serious. Are you a billionaire yet?
 
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scotchtiger

Heisman
Dec 15, 2005
135,043
23,010
113
Were yall thinking about going public, or recently went public, or something? Or am I totally misremembering?

We were considering it. But that’s shifted over the last year (nothing to do with tariffs or administration). We have easy access to capital through well-heeled VCs if we need it, being private is better for M&A activity we’re pursuing, you don’t have the quarterly earning cycle to force less than ideal behaviors, etc etc. We will probably wait a few years now.
 

UrHuckleberry

Heisman
Jun 2, 2024
10,568
22,712
113
We were considering it. But that’s shifted over the last year (nothing to do with tariffs or administration). We have easy access to capital through well-heeled VCs if we need it, being private is better for M&A activity we’re pursuing, you don’t have the quarterly earning cycle to force less than ideal behaviors, etc etc. We will probably wait a few years now.
Makes sense. Thought I remembered you discussing it. Do wonder if decisions are different for where the cost of the tariffs is carried for companies beholden to their stakeholders.
 

PalmettoTiger1

Heisman
Jan 24, 2009
13,074
13,022
113
put your money in cash..problem solved

Convert to diamonds and hold and bury in your back yard
Got that also but interest rates have fallen too. I'm up 59% in the market since 2020 and I don't like losing my smart decisions because of his dumb ones.

My wife's portfolio is doing nicely this year 2025 up 90%

Mostly tex I bought for her

Recently bought a bunch of Quantum computing fliers Rocking
 

FLaw47

All-American
Dec 23, 2010
3,790
5,028
113
That's quite a conspiracy theory but if it's true YOU could buy after he says something dumb and buy after he says he wasn't serious. Are you a billionaire yet?

You have to sell before he says the dumb thing and buy before he says nvm. The whole thing only (hypothetically) works if his buddies are given a heads up.
 

firegiver

Heisman
Sep 10, 2007
74,093
21,167
113
It's so quiet in here.
Hey guys, what happens if you attack NATO land?
.... maybe NATO drops their US Treasury bonds. The US is like 38 Trillion in debt... just imagine, trying to field an army when you can't feed them.
 
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dpic73

Heisman
Jul 27, 2005
33,959
30,177
113
It's so quiet in here.
Hey guys, what happens if you attack NATO land?
.... maybe NATO drops their US Treasury bonds. The US is like 38 Trillion in debt... just imagine, trying to field an army when you can't feed them.
Oh shut it you blue-haired limp. We are owning our NATO allies and that feels SO GOOD.
 

Jfcarter3

All-Conference
Aug 26, 2004
2,785
4,196
93
Our POTUS is so fing dumb. He is literally terrible at everything not closing down the border.
 
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dpic73

Heisman
Jul 27, 2005
33,959
30,177
113
"The New World Order is a world without the U.S. I'm a smart guy but I can't figure out how we ever put this toothpaste back in the tube. We might be cooked."

"Even if a Dem administration comes in next, the foundation that allowed him to even become president, not once but TWICE, is still there. Until the GOP is purged of that element, I for one will never trust the US again"

"We've shown the world that a full 40-50 million of us would happily turn the US into the world's bully and that our political system can be corrupted so completely that an autocracy may only be as far away as the next election"
https://www.threads.com/@starr__1204
 
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TigerGrowls

Heisman
Dec 21, 2001
48,014
37,103
113


BREAKING: US tariff revenue surged +234% YoY in 2025, to a record $264 billion, up +$185 billion compared to 2024.

In December alone, tariff revenue jumped +$21 billion or +300%, to $28 billion.

This followed $31 billion recorded in November and October.

In the 2nd half of 2025, tariff revenue averaged $30 billion.

At this pace, tariff revenue will rise to $360 billion in 2026, up another +36% YoY.

Tariff revenue is surging at an unprecedented rate.
 

FLaw47

All-American
Dec 23, 2010
3,790
5,028
113


BREAKING: US tariff revenue surged +234% YoY in 2025, to a record $264 billion, up +$185 billion compared to 2024.

In December alone, tariff revenue jumped +$21 billion or +300%, to $28 billion.

This followed $31 billion recorded in November and October.

In the 2nd half of 2025, tariff revenue averaged $30 billion.

At this pace, tariff revenue will rise to $360 billion in 2026, up another +36% YoY.

Tariff revenue is surging at an unprecedented rate.


You mean if we increase tariffs, tariffs will increase?!

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