As of right now, Venezuela’s militias, specifically the Bolivarian Militia and the urban paramilitary networks known as colectivos, have not backed down. Far from allowing America’s Secretary of War and a US-appointed “group” to run the country, they have become the primary agents of what is rapidly evolving into a chaotic and dangerous resistance.
Since the abduction of Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Caracas has effectively become a ghost town. Citizens are skipping work, businesses are shuttered, and people are staying indoors because of the colectivos.
The leftist paramilitaries are now the most visible armed presence in the capital.
The colectivos have also reframed the conflict. What might once have been portrayed as a struggle to defend Maduro has now been recast as a “decolonial war” against US occupation.
Despite US assertions that Venezuela’s military was “incapacitated,” Defence Minister Vladimir Padrino López appeared on national television alongside Vice President Delcy Rodríguez to declare that the armed forces and militias remain loyal to the Bolivarian Revolution.
According to the Robert Lansing Institute, if the United States limits itself to air power and special operations while leaving Venezuelans to manage the transition, insurgency is likely to emerge not as classic guerrilla warfare against US troops, but as urban unrest, terrorism, and targeted attacks on perceived collaborators.
Conversely, Lansing warns that a large and prolonged US troop presence would almost certainly catalyse a broader, more organised armed resistance.
Either path is bleak. Trump has initiated a process he cannot easily reverse, and there is no clean off-ramp for him or his war secretary.
The contradiction is clearest around oil. While US officials talk openly about rebuilding Venezuela’s oil infrastructure, militias and loyalist military units are expected to target those facilities to prevent the foreign plunder.
This dynamic is already visible in the Orinoco Belt, which accounts for roughly two-thirds of Venezuela’s oil production. The United States may control ports and terminals, but militias control pipelines and territory. Production is in freefall.