NCAA Team Race Update 12/23/25 : The All Is Right With The World Edition

[Wrestleknownothing]

God's in its heaven—
All's right with the world!

Hallelujah. The darkness has passed. A new day dawns. And the sun shines upon PSU wrestling once again.

We have survived the worst. We have weathered the storm. It is only through our great and goodly struggle that we have been justly re-anointed the favorites we never weren't.

Using expected points combined with Flo rankings, the team race now looks like this:



May our faith and devotion never be tested again.

Interestingly (at least to me) is the overlap in AA probabilities between PSU and anOSU. While PSU is expected to have 1 more AA, it is certainly not a foregone conclusion. There is a lot of overlap between those two graphs.

I know - heresy.

 

[Col]

God's in its heaven—
All's right with the world!

Hallelujah. The darkness has passed. A new day dawns. And the sun shines upon PSU wrestling once again.

We have survived the worst. We have weathered the storm. It is only through our great and goodly struggle that we have been justly re-anointed the favorites we never weren't.

Using expected points combined with Flo rankings, the team race now looks like this:



May our faith and devotion never be tested again.

Interestingly (at least to me) is the overlap in AA probabilities between PSU and anOSU. While PSU is expected to have 1 more AA, it is certainly not a foregone conclusion. There is a lot of overlap between those two graphs.

I know - heresy.

I agree but be careful... PSU AA and tOSU AA are not independent variables so the overlap is less than it appears (but there still is one). In other words if PSU gets an AA it might be at the expense of an Ohio State wrestler hence the AA totals are related.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

I agree but be careful... PSU AA and tOSU AA are not independent variables so the overlap is less than it appears (but there still is one). In other words if PSU gets an AA it might be at the expense of an Ohio State wrestler hence the AA totals are related.

Given that there are 8 AA slots per weight they aren't overly dependent either. The juice isn't worth the squeeze.

 

[98lberEating2Lunches]

Is tOSU within reach of breaking its dubious record of highest runner-up score of 133.5*?

*134.5 reported elsewhere

 

[Nitlion1986]

Is tOSU within reach of breaking its dubious record of highest runner-up score of 134.5?

No.

 

[SleepyLion]

Is tOSU within reach of breaking its dubious record of highest runner-up score of 134.5?

I'd rather the record for least number of points scored by the 2nd place team be broken.

 

[98lberEating2Lunches]

I'd rather the record for least number of points scored by the 2nd place team be broken.

Set an even more dubious record!

 

[Lil Nicky Scarfo]

I'd rather the record for least number of points scored by the 2nd place team be broken.

No quarter! Slaughter them all and sow their territory with salt so nothing will ever grow

 

[Dogwelder]

No quarter! Slaughter them all and sow their territory with salt so nothing will ever grow

No quarter! Not even a nickel or a penny either!

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

I'd rather the record for least number of points scored by the 2nd place team be broken.

That is a very recent record.

Since going to 8 AAs in 1979 Cornell's 72.5 in 2024 is the lowest for a second place team.

Arizona State scored 70.5 in 1989, but placement points were lower then for 3rd through 8th. Rescoring with today's rules gets you 74 points, just easing out Cornell.

 

[psumac]

Given that there are 8 AA slots per weight they aren't overly dependent either. The juice isn't worth the squeeze.

i made the mistake of giving it a moment's thought and oh lord it would be complicated. they only way they would directly keep each other from AA'ing would be if they both lose in the quarters or earlier and meet on the backside in the bloodround or earlier. even if they both lose early, it's unlikely that they would match up against each other and it would be entirely dependent on their seeds. i'm sure you could model that if you wanted to, but i agree with your assessment of 'not even close to worth it'.

 

[PSU Mike]

No quarter! Not even a nickel or a penny either!

Or Nicolls.

 

[98lberEating2Lunches]

@Wrestleknownothing

Can you share the dubious records for:
1) Highest NCAA 1st runner-up point total
2) Lowest NCAA 1st runner up point total
(all adjusted for current tournament scoring, as you see fit)

How about similar extended to the 2nd and 3rd runner-ups?

I need something else to look for beyond PSU breaking the record again when I number watch the tournament scoring.

 

[98lberEating2Lunches]

Using expected points combined with Flo rankings, the team race now looks like this:

Do you ever add confidence intervals to the final scores?

 

[JoeBagobagels]

@Wrestleknownothing

Can you share the dubious records for:
1) Highest NCAA 1st runner-up point total
2) Lowest NCAA 1st runner up point total
(all adjusted for current tournament scoring, as you see fit)

How about similar extended to the 2nd and 3rd runner-ups?

I need something else to look for beyond PSU breaking the record again when I number watch the tournament scoring.

I will guess the highest runner up total is OSU in 2018 with 134.5. Yep, BTW Iowa had the second highest runner up total in 2001 with 125.5.

 

[SleepyLion]

@Wrestleknownothing

Can you share the dubious records for:
1) Highest NCAA 1st runner-up point total
2) Lowest NCAA 1st runner up point total
(all adjusted for current tournament scoring, as you see fit)

How about similar extended to the 2nd and 3rd runner-ups?

I need something else to look for beyond PSU breaking the record again when I number watch the tournament scoring.

Got to keep that weekend interesting.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

@Wrestleknownothing

Can you share the dubious records for:
1) Highest NCAA 1st runner-up point total
2) Lowest NCAA 1st runner up point total
(all adjusted for current tournament scoring, as you see fit)

How about similar extended to the 2nd and 3rd runner-ups?

I need something else to look for beyond PSU breaking the record again when I number watch the tournament scoring.

I present "The Five Least Four Most" (podium position teams with the five lowest scores by podium position)

• Kind of interesting that if you rescore 1999 Iowa and Minnesota wind up in a tie for first rather than Iowa first and Minnesota 2 points behind.

And the "In Any Other Year Five" (podium position teams with the five highest scores by podium position)

• Oops. Penn State still has some work to do.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

I will guess the highest runner up total is OSU in 2018 with 134.5. Yep, BTW Iowa had the second highest runner up total in 2001 with 125.5.

I know the wrestlingstats doc says 134.5, but it should be 133.5. While I do not always agree with the official NCAA history doc (I have contacted them about a few scores...we will see), in this case I do. I am not sure where the error crept in.

Go to Page 50

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

Do you ever add confidence intervals to the final scores?

No but I have thought about doing distributions like what I do with AAs. I just haven't done the work yet.

 

[SleepyLion]

I present "The Five Least Four Most" (podium position teams with the five lowest scores by podium position)

• Kind of interesting that if you rescore 1999 Iowa and Minnesota wind up in a tie for first rather than Iowa first and Minnesota 2 points behind.

And the "In Any Other Year Five" (podium position teams with the five highest scores by podium position)

• Oops. Penn State still has some work to do.

It is great you can pull this together.
Thank you.

 

[JoeBagobagels]

I know the wrestlingstats doc says 134.5, but it should be 133.5. While I do not always agree with the official NCAA history doc (I have contacted them about a few scores...we will see), in this case I do. I am not sure where the error crept in.

Go to Page 50

Honestly I just checked Wikipedia .

 

[Col]

i made the mistake of giving it a moment's thought and oh lord it would be complicated. they only way they would directly keep each other from AA'ing would be if they both lose in the quarters or earlier and meet on the backside in the bloodround or earlier. even if they both lose early, it's unlikely that they would match up against each other and it would be entirely dependent on their seeds. i'm sure you could model that if you wanted to, but i agree with your assessment of 'not even close to worth it'.

When you only compare 2 teams for number of AA overlaps anytime an Ohio State wrester is predicted to finish 9th and there is a PSU wrestler that finishes above him the the only cause being considered is the PSU wrestler. Once again I don't think its a huge issue but it is enough of one to throw out a caveat. Another way to look at it is if PSU did not have a wrestling team (and the current wrestlers did not compete for another team) would Ohio State have more AA's? If the answer is yes then they are dependent, and if they are dependent they you can easily reach some false conclusions thinking they are not.
Does that mean I think the comparison is invalid? Not at all, but it does mean I am curious about the how much they are dependent on each other. Once again the only time it will matter is if Ohio State finishes 9th and PSU gets an AA. This means as Penn State gets more AA's Ohio State will get less. How much less and is it worth the squeeze I don't know but theocratically it could be hence the caveat. Also it also means that if any PSU wrestler were to finish 9th where Ohio State would AA makes them dependent in the opposite direction as well. Here, given the model, with more PSU wrestlers ranked ahead of their Ohio State counterparts this is much less likely to occur. This is making the assumption that the rankings are correct or more precisely perform to historical norms at the tournament.

 

[Psalm 1 guy]

I know the wrestlingstats doc says 134.5, but it should be 133.5. While I do not always agree with the official NCAA history doc (I have contacted them about a few scores...we will see), in this case I do. I am not sure where the error crept in.

Go to Page 50

As I was reading through this I thought I recalled tOSU being deducted a team point when Snyder threw his headgear after winning his title. AI confirmed this, citing their team score as 133.5.

I asked AI, "Did the Ohio State wrestling team get deducted one team point at the 2018 NCAA tournament":

Yes, the
Ohio State wrestling team did get one team point deducted at the conclusion of the 2018 NCAA tournament. The deduction occurred after the heavyweight finals match involving Kyle Snyder.

Point Deduction Details
The point was deducted because Ohio State's Kyle Snyder threw his headgear into the crowd after winning his third individual national championship title. This action was considered an unsportsmanlike conduct violation, leading to the one-point team penalty.
Before the deduction, Ohio State had scored 134.5 points; after the deduction, their final score was 133.5 team points, securing a second-place team finish behind Penn State's 141.5 points.

 

[dicemen99]

No quarter! Slaughter them all and sow their territory with salt so nothing will ever grow

Can't let that phrase get mentioned without dropping this. Enjoy!

 

[Psalm 1 guy]

I know Kyle wouldn't have thrown his headgear if the team title was on the line, but imagine the wailing and gnashing of teeth if his actions caused tOSU the team title! I still don't like it being a penalty if the wrestler throws their headgear in celebration. I hope it never affects the outcome of a dual or tournament in the future.

 

[Psalm 1 guy]

Can't let that phrase get mentioned without dropping this. Enjoy!

Definitely one of my favorite Led Zeppelin songs.

 

[jack66]

As I was reading through this I thought I recalled tOSU being deducted a team point when Snyder threw his headgear after winning his title. AI confirmed this, citing their team score as 133.5.

I asked AI, "Did the Ohio State wrestling team get deducted one team point at the 2018 NCAA tournament":

Yes, the
Ohio State wrestling team did get one team point deducted at the conclusion of the 2018 NCAA tournament. The deduction occurred after the heavyweight finals match involving Kyle Snyder.

Point Deduction Details
The point was deducted because Ohio State's Kyle Snyder threw his headgear into the crowd after winning his third individual national championship title. This action was considered an unsportsmanlike conduct violation, leading to the one-point team penalty.
Before the deduction, Ohio State had scored 134.5 points; after the deduction, their final score was 133.5 team points, securing a second-place team finish behind Penn State's 141.5 points.

PSU also got docked a point when Bo tossed his headgear.

 

[Dogwelder]

Oops. Penn State still has some work to do.

Ouch! I thought Penn State had already won the record! This feels like when Gandalf had ready won, and then …

 

[jack66]

Interesting comparison between OSU's 2018 vs 2026 teams.

On the left are their individual placements at the NCAAs. On the right are their current rankings on Flo.

125 3rd - 5th
133 4th - 2nd
141 3rd - 1st
149 R12 - 5th
157 6th - 1st
165 R16 - 13th
175 5th - 4th
184 2nd - 6th
197 4th - 10th
285 1st - 3rd

With bonus points, they could come close to the 134 total they achieved in 2018.

 

[Nitlion1986]

I always thought Snyder gave his headgear a toss to balance out Bo's toss.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

When you only compare 2 teams for number of AA overlaps anytime an Ohio State wrester is predicted to finish 9th and there is a PSU wrestler that finishes above him the the only cause being considered is the PSU wrestler. Once again I don't think its a huge issue but it is enough of one to throw out a caveat. Another way to look at it is if PSU did not have a wrestling team (and the current wrestlers did not compete for another team) would Ohio State have more AA's? If the answer is yes then they are dependent, and if they are dependent they you can easily reach some false conclusions thinking they are not.
Does that mean I think the comparison is invalid? Not at all, but it does mean I am curious about the how much they are dependent on each other. Once again the only time it will matter is if Ohio State finishes 9th and PSU gets an AA. This means as Penn State gets more AA's Ohio State will get less. How much less and is it worth the squeeze I don't know but theocratically it could be hence the caveat. Also it also means that if any PSU wrestler were to finish 9th where Ohio State would AA makes them dependent in the opposite direction as well. Here, given the model, with more PSU wrestlers ranked ahead of their Ohio State counterparts this is much less likely to occur. This is making the assumption that the rankings are correct or more precisely perform to historical norms at the tournament.

There is also path dependency. So not all PSU AA's block anOSU blood rounder.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

Ouch! I thought Penn State had already won the record! This feels like when Gandalf had ready won, and then …

Yeah, I though that may cause some agita.

 

[pawrstlersinpa]

God's in its heaven—
All's right with the world!

Hallelujah. The darkness has passed. A new day dawns. And the sun shines upon PSU wrestling once again.

We have survived the worst. We have weathered the storm. It is only through our great and goodly struggle that we have been justly re-anointed the favorites we never weren't.

Using expected points combined with Flo rankings, the team race now looks like this:



May our faith and devotion never be tested again.

Interestingly (at least to me) is the overlap in AA probabilities between PSU and anOSU. While PSU is expected to have 1 more AA, it is certainly not a foregone conclusion. There is a lot of overlap between those two graphs.

I know - heresy.

 

[District 4]

Can't let that phrase get mentioned without dropping this. Enjoy!

Classic song. Tool did a remake of that song that was pretty awesome as well

 

[NoSoup4U]

Can't let that phrase get mentioned without dropping this. Enjoy!

 

[Cali_Nittany1]

Yeah, I though that may cause some agita.

This is a great catch. You're the first to identify it that I've seen. I ran the #s and get the same. Using today's scoring, 1983 Iowa holds the record.

 

[Anon1683312534]

This is a great catch. You're the first to identify it that I've seen. I ran the #s and get the same. Using today's scoring, 1983 Iowa holds the record.

But they didn't use today's scoring did they?If Gable would have scored more points in the finals he would have been undefeated.

 

[ScottishSteel]

I present "The Five Least Four Most" (podium position teams with the five lowest scores by podium position)

• Kind of interesting that if you rescore 1999 Iowa and Minnesota wind up in a tie for first rather than Iowa first and Minnesota 2 points behind.

And the "In Any Other Year Five" (podium position teams with the five highest scores by podium position)

• Oops. Penn State still has some work to do.

Hey Shoutout to the Beavs for making the graphic for once!

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

But they didn't use today's scoring did they?If Gable would have scored more points in the finals he would have been undefeated.

 

[98lberEating2Lunches]

I present "The Five Least Four Most" (podium position teams with the five lowest scores by podium position)

• Kind of interesting that if you rescore 1999 Iowa and Minnesota wind up in a tie for first rather than Iowa first and Minnesota 2 points behind.

And the "In Any Other Year Five" (podium position teams with the five highest scores by podium position)

• Oops. Penn State still has some work to do.

When can we expect an update, so the eyesore of Iowa at highest 1st place (adjusted scoring) is removed (or did I miss it)?

Need to see PSU with 3/5 of the highest firsts.

Would also like to see Iowa with 3/5 of the highest fourths, since that position seems to be their current target.