New Rankings week of 12/8 - The King is Dead, Long Live The King edition

[Wrestleknownothing]

Flo and Intermat have updated their rankings to reflect the fact that Josh Barr has not wrestled this year (along with other changes, but that is the big one). In Flo's rankings that is enough to bump Ohio State ahead of Penn State in the team rankings.

But I say not so fast, my friend. Long time readers know I am not a fan of the way Wrestlestat, Intermat, Flo, etc. do their team rankings. They take a binary approach (which directly opposes their claim that their rankings are not predictions, but enough of that soap box). I prefer a probabilistic approach.

Based on Flo's rankings and my scoring I still have PSU with a very small advantage over anOSU. More importantly, Iowa separates itself from ISU to be side by side with PSU and anOSU in the conversation for first.

 

[O&Ghawkfan]

 

[Dean111!]

Flo and Intermat have updated their rankings to reflect the fact that Josh Barr has not wrestled this year (along with other changes, but that is the big one). In Flo's rankings that is enough to bump Ohio State ahead of Penn State in the team rankings...

conversation for first.

Machievelli advise ... "if you strike the King, you must kill the King."

 

[sdvike]

So what is going on that Barr has not wrestled?

 

[AndEEss]

So what is going on that Barr has not wrestled?

Broke a rib at U23 Worlds.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

Machievelli advise ... "if you strike the King, you must kill the King."

Maybe I shoulda called it the Omar Little edition

 

[ChicagoHawk2020]

Willie is crashing out on twitter over this. But, definitely not a PSU homer though.

 

[Sett1997]

That's sweet, I don't care who takes the bitches out. Love to see it happen!

 

[kingstown]

That's sweet, I don't care who takes the bitches out. Love to see it happen!

It won't even be competitive. t0su will win 141 and 285 but probably not another match in the dual. PSU scores way too much bonus for it to be competitive score wise in a tournament.

 

[sdvike]

It won't even be competitive. t0su will win 141 and 285 but probably not another match in the dual. PSU scores way too much bonus for it to be competitive score wise in a tournament.

Possibly 125 and 133. I don't think those are locks for PSU.

 

[Steelhead52]

I know we all realize that these early rankings can be totally useless and ultimately they will self adjust. But to exclude top PfP freshman that everyone knows will be top 5 before the season is over makes little sense. When football teams are rated early season it’s totally subjective but at least makes some sense. I could see OSU winning 3 weights with 1 bonus.

 

[Corby2]

I know we all realize that these early rankings can be totally useless and ultimately they will self adjust. But to exclude top PfP freshman that everyone knows will be top 5 before the season is over makes little sense. When football teams are rated early season it’s totally subjective but at least makes some sense. I could see OSU winning 3 weights with 1 bonus.

Rankings aren't predictions they're based off of results. So if a freshman has wins over college guys at opens in HS they will be ranked early on as true freshman. Blaze had wins against college guys so he was ranked accordingly where Duke didn't have any so he was ranked lower.

 

[Crablegs1]

Rankings aren't predictions they're based off of results. So if a freshman has wins over college guys at opens in HS they will be ranked early on as true freshman. Blaze had wins against college guys so he was ranked accordingly where Duke didn't have any so he was ranked lower.

100%. I appreciate the transparency of Flo’s rankings.

Why should Barr, or Crookham be ranked right now? They shouldn’t. They haven’t wrestled, are the going to? Cael even indicated the other day that the wrestle off with Mirasola at 97 is a real thing.

The rankings are a point in time thing, and the team ranking is 100% just a formula based on team points for individual rankings. Barr shouldn’t be ranked, and PJ is low based on his results. This shouldn’t upset anyone, and we all know end of year that PSU is a heavy favorite.

 

[maxpain]

Possibly 125 and 133. I don't think those are locks for PSU.

I am picking OSU at 133. I think 157 is in play too. I know these are insane recruits but I like to see it before I pick it.

 

[Steelhead52]

Rankings aren't predictions they're based off of results. So if a freshman has wins over college guys at opens in HS they will be ranked early on as true freshman. Blaze had wins against college guys so he was ranked accordingly where Duke didn't have any so he was ranked lower.

Thanks and I appreciate the feedback. I just don’t understand the purpose of poles just based on historical metrics.

 

[blcoach80]

I am picking OSU at 133. I think 157 is in play too. I know these are insane recruits but I like to see it before I pick it.

I think Davino is in the mix to win it all at 133 this year. Tan Tom has as good a 1-2 punch at 133/141 as there is in D1 right now (Bouzakis is solid, but I'm not sold on him for the whole season at 125). Blaze is going to be a hammer too. Drake needs to peak in March as B10s and NCAAs are absolutely loaded at 133.

 

[AndEEss]

I am picking OSU at 133. I think 157 is in play too. I know these are insane recruits but I like to see it before I pick it.

I don't know how anyone watches this match and thinks, "Ben Davino will beat Marcus Blaze".

61 lbs 3rd Place Match - Marcus Blaze, Titan Mercury Wrestling Club (TMWC) vs Benjamin Davino, Ohio RTC/ Titan Mercury Wrestling Club (TMWC)

61 lbs 3rd Place Match - Marcus Blaze, Titan Mercury Wrestling Club (TMWC) vs Benjamin Davino, Ohio RTC/ Titan Mercury Wrestling Club (TMWC)

www.flowrestling.org

 

[sdvike]

Thanks and I appreciate the feedback. I just don’t understand the purpose of poles just based on historical metrics.

Metrics were smaller historically so easier to climb and swing on the poles but yes no real purpose.

 

[Corby2]

I don't know how anyone watches this match and thinks, "Ben Davino will beat Marcus Blaze".

61 lbs 3rd Place Match - Marcus Blaze, Titan Mercury Wrestling Club (TMWC) vs Benjamin Davino, Ohio RTC/ Titan Mercury Wrestling Club (TMWC)

61 lbs 3rd Place Match - Marcus Blaze, Titan Mercury Wrestling Club (TMWC) vs Benjamin Davino, Ohio RTC/ Titan Mercury Wrestling Club (TMWC)

www.flowrestling.org

Davino did beat him in the Ironman finals a 2 years ago in OT. It's gonna be a good match but I like Blaze. Blaze is special

 

[js8793]

I really don't understand why people freak out over Flo's rankings every year. They are extremely clear about their criteria. The newcomers have to earn their rankings. By the time the rankings actually matter, everything is evened out and it's all based on results, not hype.

 

[maxpain]

I don't know how anyone watches this match and thinks, "Ben Davino will beat Marcus Blaze".

61 lbs 3rd Place Match - Marcus Blaze, Titan Mercury Wrestling Club (TMWC) vs Benjamin Davino, Ohio RTC/ Titan Mercury Wrestling Club (TMWC)

61 lbs 3rd Place Match - Marcus Blaze, Titan Mercury Wrestling Club (TMWC) vs Benjamin Davino, Ohio RTC/ Titan Mercury Wrestling Club (TMWC)

www.flowrestling.org

You are right, once a guy wins in freestyle then it’s impossible for him to win in folk… even if their last folk match Davino won.

 

[AndEEss]

You are right, once a guy wins in freestyle then it’s impossible for him to win in folk… even if their last folk match Davino won.

So, Davino, who has scored one (1) TD against Blaze in their last three matches, while giving up seven, is magically going to figure it out, because…Folk?

Ok.

 

[Corby2]

So, Davino, who has scored one (1) TD against Blaze in their last three matches, while giving up seven, is magically going to figure it out, because…Folk?

Ok.

What's the score when they wrestle?

 

[maxpain]

So, Davino, who has scored one (1) TD against Blaze in their last three matches, while giving up seven, is magically going to figure it out, because…Folk?

Ok.

How many times has he taken down Davino in a Folkstyle match? Blaze is super dangerous in freestyle because his short offense. He threatens exposure so well. That element doesn’t matter in folk. Neither does his gut wrench. The kid’s a stud, but folk is different for a reason. Some things transfer and some not so much.

 

[AndEEss]

What's the score when they wrestle?

5-3, 6-4, 7-0.

 

[IRON HAWK]

Davino looked very good against Ayala, it IS only one match( although he looked good in others TWOOOO) and could be a match up thing, a weight cut thing etc.... On the other hand, I was not at all impressed with Blaze against Lehigh, and you can just repeat the above again.

ALL that and I will take Davino!

 

[Corby2]

5-3, 6-4, 7-0.

I meant what's your prediction for this year

 

[trufan]

Blaze is the real deal. He's very good, he definitely is much more than a freestyle only wrestler.

 

[pish69]

Rankings aren't predictions they're based off of results. So if a freshman has wins over college guys at opens in HS they will be ranked early on as true freshman. Blaze had wins against college guys so he was ranked accordingly where Duke didn't have any so he was ranked lower.

I believe wrestling is the only sport that does this though. Think of college basketball. I remember when Kentucky had 5 stud freshman coming in. Never stepped on a college court and were ranked top 5 preseason that year.

 

[kingstown]

Blaze is the best 133 lb. in the country imo. Davino is really good but he needs his ties which Blaze won't give him. Every year Flo comes up with some ranking thing that makes it look like somebody matches up good with PSU, and then the dual happens and reality sits in. Barr or no Barr there is also no chance tOSU wins 197. PSU just has so much fire power. 7-3 in matches is likely. tOSU winning 4 would be a great showing. tOSU winning 5 would take a perfect storm and they would still get beat on bonus.

 

[Scrubby]

Blaze and duke are not ranked as high as they will place and psu has back ups that call has openly said are pretty much equal to barr in ability. This is fake news to generate excitement and attention in general.

 

[Corby2]

Blaze and duke are not ranked as high as they will place and psu has back ups that call has openly said are pretty much equal to barr in ability. This is fake news to generate excitement and attention in general.

It's not fake at all it's called rankings which are done by actual results. They're not predictions. Flo changed the philosophy they had on MFF to move Duke up. They were getting s*it about him being so low. If Duke wrestled for Sacred Heart he would still be ranked low. Blaze had results against college kids coming in so he was higher. Next year Bo will be ranked top 5 or higher immediately because he has college results already

 

[maxpain]

Blaze is the real deal. He's very good, he definitely is much more than a freestyle only wrestler.

Nobody is saying he’s only a freestyle guy. He’s elite for sure. I think Davino is elite as well. It wouldn’t surprise me one bit if Blaze wins but apparently it would shock some people if Davino wins. Fine with me I am not trying to convince anyone by making my pick.

 

[WillieTheBrain]

Willie is crashing out on twitter over this. But, definitely not a PSU homer though.

uh. no.

i could care less who leads in team score based on highly dubious rankings in December.

my twitter tirade was only in response to Pyles talking ****

 

[JoeBagobagels]

It's not fake at all it's called rankings which are done by actual results. They're not predictions. Flo changed the philosophy they had on MFF to move Duke up. They were getting s*it about him being so low. If Duke wrestled for Sacred Heart he would still be ranked low. Blaze had results against college kids coming in so he was higher. Next year Bo will be ranked top 5 or higher immediately because he has college results already

I get it but as others have pointed out other sports will factor in true or redshirt freshmen who haven't yet played any college ball.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

I get it but as others have pointed out other sports will factor in true or redshirt freshmen who haven't yet played any college ball.

I am with Flo on this one. Factoring in freshmen in a team sport is a whole different proposition than an individual sport. And this isn't just any individual sport. It is a one on one sport. People have mentioned swimming and track, but those are competitions against the clock. And the clock doesn't change from event to event, so comparing results across events is simple. Tennis (singles) would be a better comparison. I have no idea how NCAA tennis rankings work with freshmen.

 

[JoeBagobagels]

I am with Flo on this one. Factoring in freshmen in a team sport is a whole different proposition than an individual sport. And this isn't just any individual sport. It is a one on one sport. People have mentioned swimming and track, but those are competitions against the clock. And the clock doesn't change from event to event, so comparing results across events is simple. Tennis (singles) would be a better comparison. I have no idea how NCAA tennis rankings work with freshmen.

Well they are talking team rankings here. Not individual rankings. It's possible to somewhat extrapolate performance from high to to college just like other sports. There is plenty of evidence of true freshmen and redshirt freshmen performing at a high level in the NCAA tournament.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

Well they are talking team rankings here. Not individual rankings. It's possible to somewhat extrapolate performance from high to to college just like other sports. There is plenty of evidence of true freshmen and redshirt freshmen performing at a high level in the NCAA tournament.

Team performance is just the sum of individual performance in wrestling. That is nothing like team performance in team sports. I think PSU demonstrated this best when they win tournaments with only a subset of wrestlers qualifying or scoring in meaningful ways.

 

[funnyfletcher]

uh. no.

i could care less who leads in team score based on highly dubious rankings in December.

my twitter tirade was only in response to Pyles talking ****

RAF 12/20 Willie vs Pyles

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

RAF 12/20 Willie vs Pyles