4A Massey Playoff Projections Rd 3

[GrizzlyDevil]

3rd RD Projections:
1 Brevard vs 8 Burns = BVD by 6
4 Pisgah vs 5 Mount Pleasant = P by 2
2 Hibriten vs 7 Stuart Cramer = H by 6
3 Newton vs 6 Maiden = M by 12
----------
1 Reidsville vs 9 Eastern Wayne = R by 26
4 Central Davidson vs 12 North Pitt = CD by 20
2 West Craven vs 7 TW Andrews = WC by 27
3 East Duplin vs 11 SW Edgecombe = ED by 14

4th RD Projections:
1 Brevard over 4 Pisgah
6 Maiden over 2 Hibriten
----------
1 Reidsville over 4 Central Davidson
2 West Craven over 3 East Duplin

Regional Finals Projections:
6 Maiden over 1 Brevard
----------
1 Reidsville over 2 West Craven

State Championship Projection:
Reidsville by 5 over Maiden

 

[GrizzlyDevil]

TEAM	OVR W	OVR L	OVR %	PF	PA	APF	APA	AVG DIFF
Hibriten	10	1	90.9%	527	188	47.9	17.1	30.8
Reidsville	9	2	81.8%	475	153	43.2	13.9	29.3
Central Davidson	10	1	90.9%	421	119	38.3	10.8	27.5
Brevard	11	0	100.0%	449	174	40.8	15.8	25.0
Stuart Cramer	9	2	81.8%	437	214	39.7	19.5	20.3
West Craven	10	1	90.9%	398	181	36.2	16.5	19.7
East Duplin	9	2	81.8%	367	158	33.4	14.4	19.0
Burns	7	4	63.6%	437	233	39.7	21.2	18.5
Eastern Wayne	8	3	72.7%	384	189	34.9	17.2	17.7
Maiden	7	4	63.6%	371	236	33.7	21.5	12.3
TW Andrews	9	2	81.8%	294	174	26.7	15.8	10.9
SW Edgecombe	7	5	58.3%	352	223	29.3	18.6	10.8
Pisgah	8	3	72.7%	374	273	34.0	24.8	9.2
Newton	9	2	81.8%	368	282	33.5	25.6	7.8
North Pitt	7	5	58.3%	329	272	27.4	22.7	4.8
Mount Pleasant	8	3	72.7%	302	252	27.5	22.9	4.5

 

[GrizzlyDevil]

Strength of Schedule Rankings from MP, Massey, and Simmons:

SOS Rank	TEAM	MaxPreps	Massey	Simmons	AVG
1	Maiden	12.9 (1)	24.60 (1)	1 (1)	1.0
2	Newton	9.2 (2)	19.97 (2)	4 (2)	2.0
3	Mount Pleasant	8.9 (3)	15.39 (5)	5 (3)	3.7
4	West Craven	7.4 (4)	14.23 (6)	13 (5)	5.0
5	Reidsville	3.8 (10)	18.94 (3)	12 (4)	5.7
6	Pisgah	4.9 (7)	13.28 (7)	14 (6)	6.7
7	North Pitt	6.7 (6)	11.87 (9)	16 (7)	7.3
8	Burns	3.6 (11)	18.52 (4)	21 (9)	8.0
9	SW Edgecombe	6.9 (5)	8.08 (12)	23 (10)	9.0
10	Brevard	2.3 (12)	11.16 (10)	17 (8)	10.0
11	East Duplin	4.1 (8)	10.41 (11)	29 (12)	10.3
12	Eastern Wayne	4.0 (9)	8.03 (13)	26 (11)	11.0
13	Stuart Cramer	-1.1 (13)	11.95 (8)	41 (15)	12.0
14	TW Andrews	-2.7 (14)	5.73 (14)	35 (14)	14.0
15	Central Davidson	-3.2 (15)	1.93 (16)	34 (13)	14.7
16	Hibriten	-8.5 (16)	4.63 (15)	49 (16)	15.7

**Simmons SOS does not include the 2nd RD games. I didn't feel like waiting till Friday for the update.

 

[amaidendevil]

That anchor conference @beamer24

 

[beamer24]

That anchor conference @beamer24

Prepared us well lol.

 

[Oldway44]

Prepared us well lol.

I'm pulling for y'all Beamer. Looking for a rematch.

 

[GrizzlyDevil]

Team Overall Ratings:

I dove into Massey's ratings for offense and defense for the 4A schools and calculated what the overall rating would be for each playoff teams offense, defense, and team.

Looking at the range for 4A there was a 44.35 rating difference between the top 4A offense and lowest 4A offense, for defense that difference was 45.20 - I took the individual rating for each playoff team and calculated what the overall rating would be on a scale from 1 to 100 based off the existing data range for 4A schools given by Massey.

The existing Offensive Power rating by Massey is a score based off of a team's ability to score versus the defenses they've faced.
The existing Defensive Power rating by Massey is a score based off a team's ability to prevent scoring based off the offenses they've faced.
So the ratings change weekly.

As of now, this is what we have:

TEAM	OFF OVR	DEF OVR	TEAM OVR
Reidsville	100.0	96.2 (3)	98
Maiden	89.1 (4)	100.0	95
Brevard	91.6 (2)	92.7 (4)	92
Burns	90.0 (3)	88.6 (7)	89
West Craven	81.8 (8)	92.6 (5)	87
Central Davidson	82.7 (6)	90.6 (6)	87
East Duplin	75.2 (11)	97.8 (2)	87
Hibriten	88.8 (5)	80.8 (13)	85
Newton	82.6 (7)	84.0 (11)	83
Stuart Cramer	81.0 (9)	82.6 (12)	82
Mount Pleasant	75.2 (11)	85.6 (8)	80
Pisgah	79.3 (10)	79.9 (14)	80
SW Edgecombe	70.5 (13)	84.2 (9)	77
Eastern Wayne	69.8 (14)	84.2 (9)	77
North Pitt	66.5 (15)	79.5 (15)	73
TW Andrews	56.9 (16)	77.1 (16)	67

 

[Flyrod]

@GrizzlyDevil is the man.


Needs a sports statistician job.

 

[beamer24]

.

 

[SPRedRaider]

Team Overall Ratings:

I dove into Massey's ratings for offense and defense for the 4A schools and calculated what the overall rating would be for each playoff teams offense, defense, and team.

Looking at the range for 4A there was a 44.35 rating difference between the top 4A offense and lowest 4A offense, for defense that difference was 45.20 - I took the individual rating for each playoff team and calculated what the overall rating would be on a scale from 1 to 100 based off the existing data range for 4A schools given by Massey.

The existing Offensive Power rating by Massey is a score based off of a team's ability to score versus the defenses they've faced.
The existing Defensive Power rating by Massey is a score based off a team's ability to prevent scoring based off the offenses they've faced.
So the ratings change weekly.

As of now, this is what we have:

TEAM	OFF OVR	DEF OVR	TEAM OVR
Reidsville	100.0	96.2 (3)	98
Maiden	89.1 (4)	100.0	95
Brevard	91.6 (2)	92.7 (4)	92
Burns	90.0 (3)	88.6 (7)	89
West Craven	81.8 (8)	92.6 (5)	87
Central Davidson	82.7 (6)	90.6 (6)	87
East Duplin	75.2 (11)	97.8 (2)	87
Hibriten	88.8 (5)	80.8 (13)	85
Newton	82.6 (7)	84.0 (11)	83
Stuart Cramer	81.0 (9)	82.6 (12)	82
Mount Pleasant	75.2 (11)	85.6 (8)	80
Pisgah	79.3 (10)	79.9 (14)	80
SW Edgecombe	70.5 (13)	84.2 (9)	77
Eastern Wayne	69.8 (14)	84.2 (9)	77
North Pitt	66.5 (15)	79.5 (15)	73
TW Andrews	56.9 (16)	77.1 (16)	67

Based on the teams they've played, correct? I think that is the factor that creates the deviation.

 

[GrizzlyDevil]

Based off this data, here are the most competitive games this week in order (best bang for you buck):

Pisgah vs Mt Pleasant
Brevard vs Burns
Hibriten vs Stuart Cramer
E Duplin vs SW Edgecombe
Newton vs Maiden
C Davidson vs N Pitt
W Craven vs TW Andrews
Reidsville vs E Wayne

 

[GrizzlyDevil]

Based on the teams they've played, correct? I think that is the factor that creates the deviation.

Correct

 

[GrizzlyDevil]

.

Me, or anyone else, can look at numbers and data points and film all day...but it comes down to the kids. I don't care how good a gameplan is, if the kids don't show up it doesn't matter.

Execution = Emotion + Ability + Gameplan

Any coach would agree that these 3 basic things have to be present for perfect execution during the game. You can have a great gameplan and very athletic kids, but if they play with zero emotion, you can get beat any time any place.

And it's not just for the entirety of a game...this is play by play...your execution versus the opponent's execution.

 

[beamer24]

Me, or anyone else, can look at numbers and data points and film all day...but it comes down to the kids. I don't care how good a gameplan is, if the kids don't show up it doesn't matter.

Execution = Emotion + Ability + Gameplan

Any coach would agree that these 3 basic things have to be present for perfect execution during the game. You can have a great gameplan and very athletic kids, but if they play with zero emotion, you can get beat any time any place.

And it's not just for the entirety of a game...this is play by play...your execution versus the opponent's execution.

Agreed. That's probably the best part about high school football. A 5'8" 160 pounder can out heart a D1 ball player on any given friday night.

 

[Chopper747_2.0]

potential blue devil bowl

 

[Goldendomer10]

Me, or anyone else, can look at numbers and data points and film all day...but it comes down to the kids. I don't care how good a gameplan is, if the kids don't show up it doesn't matter.

Execution = Emotion + Ability + Gameplan

Any coach would agree that these 3 basic things have to be present for perfect execution during the game. You can have a great gameplan and very athletic kids, but if they play with zero emotion, you can get beat any time any place.

And it's not just for the entirety of a game...this is play by play...your execution versus the opponent's execution.

Yes and the numbers can only tell the black and white story. In Pisgah’s case we had an ugly game right of the gates that skewed numbers. We played in a way to start non-conference that was very concerning to say the least. However, from Franklin on this current team would wear the Pisgah team from early in the year out and take its lunch money. Whenever(if) we bow out, this team has improved greatly and is a much better version of itself.

Against a team like West Iredell last week, earlier in the year, we would have committed the penalties and made the mistakes to lose that game. That hasn’t happened lately. Our emotion is different and, you’re correct, that makes a huge deal.

 

[beamer24]

Yes and the numbers can only tell the black and white story. In Pisgah’s case we had an ugly game right of the gates that skewed numbers. We played in a way to start non-conference that was very concerning to say the least. However, from Franklin on this current team would wear the Pisgah team from early in the year out and take its lunch money. Whenever(if) we bow out, this team has improved greatly and is a much better version of itself.

Against a team like West Iredell last week, earlier in the year, we would have committed the penalties and made the mistakes to lose that game. That hasn’t happened lately. Our emotion is different and, you’re correct, that makes a huge deal.

Some teams lose 3 or 4 games early then catch fire and go on a run. Davie 2010, South Point 2016, Shelby 2018. You definitely want to peak at the right time.

 

[GrizzlyDevil]

potential blue devil bowl

If we both make it there, it's a welcomed match for me personally. My senior year at Maiden we lost at Brevard 21-18. I would love a shot at redemption.

 

[CRblue23]

I like and agree with the general take on how Massy comes up with their outputs, but I do see a flaw that can make a small difference with some schools numbers. Some schools put stock in blowing teams out and keeping their first teams in longer then others do. With this years Max Prep RPI rankings, its about W-L and who those teams win and loose against. Some schools pull starters early to protect them from injury and give young players and back ups more time. This affects how much they score and win by and how many points they give up. Just something to think about. At this point in the playoffs anyone can beat anyone and why my dad always said "Games are played on the field, not on paper". Hope all the teams play to their ability and come out of this weeks game healthy. Should be a good Friday Night!

 

[Chopper747_2.0]

where is the Pisgah Mt Pleasant game? I mgiht go to that one, was planning on a hike and some squatch watching/hunting on Saturday.

 

[Shelby Lion]

where is the Pisgah Mt Pleasant game? I mgiht go to that one, was planning on a hike and some squatch watching/hunting on Saturday.

You know good and well you old skunk ape, you got no business in no woods looking for Knobby..... You might fall and break a hip pappy!!!!

 

[CRblue23]

where is the Pisgah Mt Pleasant game? I mgiht go to that one, was planning on a hike and some squatch watching/hunting on Saturday.

Pisgah.....

 

[GrizzlyDevil]

You know good and well you old skunk ape, you got no business in no woods looking for Knobby..... You might fall and break a hip pappy!!!!

Oh man...imma show my inner nerd. Blonde hair and 6 fingers? Not a sasquatch, but a race of giants. Western tribes of giants grew from 10-15 feet or more...eastern tribes were smaller...7 to 10 feet. Tons of articles in the 1800s about burial mounds being uncovered with the large skeletons as such and massive skulls. I won't bore y'all with a nerd hobby...but 6 fingers definitely was a giant trait...not sasquatch.

 

[Goldendomer10]

You know good and well you old skunk ape, you got no business in no woods looking for Knobby..... You might fall and break a hip pappy!!!!

This guy made himself local famous with that interview. Trust me in my office if Bigfoot, Squatch, or Knobby get brought up somebody will quote something from this interview. “He had beautiful haaaiiirrr…”””or also the learned importance of “rough talking” this creature back into the shadows.

I’ve lived in the mountains all my life and been in the woods a ton and to this day the closest I’ve come to seeing a Sasquatch was at a NASCAR race on a hot day.

 

[Burns85Bulldogs]

For all you Upper Cleveland County lovers.... here is the ORIGINAL Knobby movie made way back in 1979.

 

[Shelby Lion]

Carpenters knob where Knobby origiinated from is literally in my backyard.. I have lived here 27 years now aint seen a bigfoot yet..

Cy'otes, Bear, meth heads, crack heads and big ole women with no teeth YES but nary a bigfoot


Grizz you are too smart for your own good.... LOL

 

[Goldendomer10]

I have lived here 27 years now aint seen a bigfoot yet..

So this isn’t you in that video????

 

[Burns85Bulldogs]

For all you Upper Cleveland County lovers.... here is the ORIGINAL Knobby movie made way back in 1979.

Sadly, I know - or knew - just about everybody in that fine motion picture. Yep... I'm a Belwood boy....

 

[Chopper747_2.0]

Pisgah.....

Thanks!

 

[Otis1144]

Thanks!

You will have a good time if you go. Pisgah has a fun rb to watch.

 

[Chopper747_2.0]

Oh man...imma show my inner nerd. Blonde hair and 6 fingers? Not a sasquatch, but a race of giants. Western tribes of giants grew from 10-15 feet or more...eastern tribes were smaller...7 to 10 feet. Tons of articles in the 1800s about burial mounds being uncovered with the large skeletons as such and massive skulls. I won't bore y'all with a nerd hobby...but 6 fingers definitely was a giant trait...not sasquatch.

Then what are the hairy tall guys then

For all you Upper Cleveland County lovers.... here is the ORIGINAL Knobby movie made way back in 1979.

The man said scientists came from Henrietta and Six Points... Bootleg moonshine scientists

 

[GrizzlyDevil]

Then what are the hairy tall guys then

The man said scientists came from Henrietta and Six Points... Bootleg moonshine scientists

Bigfoot/Sasquatch are the hairy ones...gorilla hairy...darker hair.

American Giants were human hairy... Italian hairy. 6 fingers...elongated skulls, most described to have 2 rows of teeth. Most red hair...older ones faded to blonde/Grey. DNA testing of similar skulls in Peru showed a 91% match to human DNA the other 9% was unknown.

 

[amaidendevil]

Bigfoot/Sasquatch are the hairy ones...gorilla hairy...darker hair.

American Giants were human hairy... Italian hairy. 6 fingers...elongated skulls, most described to have 2 rows of teeth. Most red hair...older ones faded to blonde/Grey. DNA testing of similar skulls in Peru showed a 91% match to human DNA the other 9% was unknown.

Are we getting into the nephilim

 

[Otis1144]

I cannot believe I watched that!

 

[GrizzlyDevil]

Are we getting into the nephilim

 

[Chopper747_2.0]

I cannot believe I watched that!

I fast forward to a bunch of corny parts

 

[Burns85Bulldogs]

Y'all boys don't know what you're missing by not spending more time in Upper Cleveland County.

 

[beamer24]

Where's this Gaston county?

 

[Chopper747_2.0]

Y'all boys don't know what you're missing by not spending more time in Upper Cleveland County.

Like the results of inbreeding from the 70s?

 

[ShinyTurd]

I remember a story coming out a few years ago about a Sasquatch being sited out near Burns, is this that video? They done methed up