THE OFFICIAL RUTGERS-AMERICAN PREDICTION THREAD
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
I know they lost to GW by 40 but they lost to Wake by 14 and beat Penn
Rutgers struggled with Lehigh who is like 283
Gonna go with a wtf loss here. Everyone's favorite numbers
Rutgers 67
American 69
Rutgers 67
American 69
My biggest takeaway from researching this prediction is that all of a sudden, George Washington is good. They haven't been good for a really long time. They must have worked some NIL magic. They clobbered American.
Interesting to see that American beat Penn. That makes me feel a little more confident against Penn when they come to the RAC.
ESPN gives American a 9% chance to win this game. I'll put it like this:
15% - we lose
20% - RU by less than 6 points
25% - RU by 7 - 12 points
20% - RU by 13 - 19 points
20% - RU by more than 19 points.
Interesting to see that American beat Penn. That makes me feel a little more confident against Penn when they come to the RAC.
ESPN gives American a 9% chance to win this game. I'll put it like this:
15% - we lose
20% - RU by less than 6 points
25% - RU by 7 - 12 points
20% - RU by 13 - 19 points
20% - RU by more than 19 points.
Agree on the first part. American is capable of giving us a game and we always seem to struggle with Patriot league teams for some reason.
In terms of the second thing, each game takes on its own identity. Besides that - KenPom has less meaning than ever with midmajors only 3 games into the season. Whatever his algorithm is, prior season power ratings correlate less when there’s so much roster turnover. Lehigh hasn’t played any teams like Penn yet so it’s tough to say how they’ll do against other midmajors.
Also - it’s not like American ever really challenged WF. They had a double digit lead at halftime and never cut it to single digits. They lost by 14. Lehigh lost to Houston by 18. Granted there were some earlier points in the game where Houston has the lead over 20, but Houston is also a much better team than WF. It’s not enough info to know much of anything. You’d think Kenpom is more accurate though on the team Minny struggled with - GB. Green Bay lost to some random team I’ve never heard of by 19 points. It stands to reason that teams in the 300s with blow out losses to bad midmajors are probably ranked appropriately.
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American chucks up a lot of 3s. Averaging 30 per game. They’ve been shooting poorly but one thing is for sure, which is that Pike teams are highly susceptible to wide open 3s given his focus on help defense. If American gets hot, this one can go down to the wire.
The whole A-10 conference is ranked 7th on KenPom right now, which would be its highest since 1998. Five teams in the top 100 and then another five between 100-120 — that’s not to mention Loyola and St. Joes having bafflingly bad years.
I think the lack of FB makes those schools super well-suited for the NIL era
I picked RU to win by 6 (75-69) and I’ll admit to being a little nervous on this one.
American made the big dance last year and have some good young players.
For example, in their win over Fran McCaffrey’s Penn team, they had a freshman, Collins, come off the bench and scored 25 points, on 9-10 from 2, 2-7 from 3, and 1-1 from the line. Not bad for a sub playing in only his second collegiate game.
And they have other guys in their starting lineup who look pretty good as well.
I’ll say this, I would consider this a good win if we can get it.
American made the big dance last year and have some good young players.
For example, in their win over Fran McCaffrey’s Penn team, they had a freshman, Collins, come off the bench and scored 25 points, on 9-10 from 2, 2-7 from 3, and 1-1 from the line. Not bad for a sub playing in only his second collegiate game.
And they have other guys in their starting lineup who look pretty good as well.
I’ll say this, I would consider this a good win if we can get it.
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Well, I went 12 point spread. It ended a 9 point spread. AU was a bit better than I gave them credit for. Their 1st half defense was really good.
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