Projected Playoff Brackets based on Massey

wildkit_fan · Oct 8, 2024

Saw another thread on showing projected playoff brackets. Thought I would take a swing at it based on Massey collected data. So, here's how I am doing it:

Take current record and add Massey Projected W's , rounding to integer (e.g. a team currently 4-2 with 2.3 projected additional wins is projected to finish 6-3)
Use SoS as an estimate of how many opponent wins a team will collect in order to break ties from step 1. I can probably use the projections from step 1 to project opponents wins, but it's a bit more work than I feel like right now

So, here we go...

8A		7A		6A		5A
1	Lincoln-Way East (9-0)	1	Downers Grove-N (9-0)	1	Cary-Grove (9-0)	1	Sycamore (9-0)
32	St Ignatius (4-5)	32	Harlem (5-4)	32	Eisenhower-BI (4-5)	32	Bulls Col Prep (5-4)
16	Naperville-North (6-3)	16	Glenbard East (7-2)	16	Glenwood (6-3)	16	Highland (6-3)
17	Maine South (6-3)	17	Addison Trail (7-2)	17	Lemont (6-3)	17	Metamora (6-3)
8	Barrington (7-2)	8	St Rita (7-2)	8	Washington (7-2)	8	Mahomet-Seymour (7-2)
25	Taft (6-3)	25	Wheaton-North (5-4)	25	Riverside-Brookfield (5-4)	25	Marmion Acad (5-4)
9	Sandburg (7-2)	9	Chi-Mt Carmel (7-2)	9	Richards-OL (7-2)	9	Peoria (7-2)
24	Minooka (6-3)	24	Bradley-Bourbonnais (6-3)	24	Grant (5-4)	24	Burlington Cent (5-4)
4	Marist (8-1)	4	Batavia (8-1)	4	Libertyville (8-1)	4	Morgan Park (8-1)
29	Waubonsie Val (5-4)	29	Andrew (5-4)	29	Deerfield (4-5)	29	Centralia (5-4)
13	Downers Grove-S (7-2)	13	Jacobs (7-2)	13	Kennedy (7-2)	13	Joliet Cath (6-3)
20	Huntley (6-3)	20	Prospect (6-3)	20	Simeon (6-3)	20	Glenbard South (6-3)
5	Naperville Cent (8-1)	5	Maine West (8-1)	5	Kankakee (8-1)	5	Triad (8-1)
28	Plainfield North (5-4)	28	Kenwood (5-4)	28	Senn (5-4)	28	Sterling (5-4)
12	Palatine (7-2)	12	Arlington Hts-Hersey (7-2)	12	Mather (7-2)	12	St Francis (6-3)
21	Edwardsville (6-3)	21	Rolling Meadows (6-3)	21	Shepard (6-3)	21	Calumet City-TFN (6-3)

2	Oswego (9-0)	2	Quincy (9-0)	2	East St Louis (8-1)	2	Prairie Ridge (8-1)
31	Glenbard West (4-5)	31	Willowbrook (5-4)	31	East Moline (4-5)	31	Payton Prep (5-4)
15	Loyola Acad (6-3)	15	Normal (7-2)	15	Kaneland (6-3)	15	Morris (6-3)
18	Homewood-Flossmoor (6-3)	18	Brother Rice (6-3)	18	Crete Monee (6-3)	18	Sacred Ht-Griffin (6-3)
7	Fremd (8-1)	7	Lincoln Park (8-1)	7	Normal-Comm W (7-2)	7	Nazareth Acad (7-2)
26	Niles West (6-3)	26	Wheaton-W'ville S (5-4)	26	Springfield (5-4)	26	Hillcrest (5-4)
10	York (7-2)	10	St Charles-North (7-2)	10	Bloomington (7-2)	10	Grayslake North (7-2)
23	South Elgin (6-3)	23	Hoffman Estates (6-3)	23	Lake Zurich (5-4)	23	Corliss (6-3)
3	Aurora-West (9-0)	3	Hononegah (9-0)	3	Geneva (8-1)	3	Rochelle (8-1)
30	Joliet West (5-4)	30	Schaumburg (5-4)	30	Hinsdale South (4-5)	30	Westinghouse (5-4)
14	Stevenson (7-2)	14	Pekin (7-2)	14	Lake Forest (6-3)	14	Benet Acad (6-3)
19	Warren Twp (6-3)	19	Lincoln-Way Cent (6-3)	19	Oak Forest (6-3)	19	Marion (6-3)
6	Lyons (8-1)	6	Young (8-1)	6	Belvidere North (8-1)	6	Antioch (8-1)
27	Glenbrook South (5-4)	27	Lincoln Way West (5-4)	27	Fenton (5-4)	27	Freeport (5-4)
11	Plainfield South (7-2)	11	Fenwick (7-2)	11	Wauconda (7-2)	11	Woodstock North (7-2)
22	Belleville-East (6-3)	22	Moline (6-3)	22	Dunlap (6-3)	22	Jacksonville (6-3)

wildkit_fan · Oct 8, 2024

And smaller schools....

4A		3A		2A		1A
1	Breese (9-0)	1	St Joseph-Ogden (9-0)	1	Wilmington (9-0)	1	Lena Winslow (9-0)
32	Harrisburg (5-4)	32	Carver (5-3)	32	Bp McNamara (4-5)	32	Central A&M (5-4)
16	Dyett (7-2)	16	New Berlin (7-2)	16	Elmwood (7-2)	16	Savanna (7-2)
17	Chi-Sullivan (7-2)	17	Chi-Marshall (7-1)	17	Warrensburg-Latham (7-2)	17	Rockford Luth (6-3)
8	University-Norm (7-2)	8	N Lawndale Col Prep (8-1)	8	Pana (8-1)	8	Gibson City (8-1)
25	Notre Dame-Peoria (5-4)	25	Fairfield (6-3)	25	El Paso-Gridley (5-4)	25	Stockton (5-4)
9	Cahokia (7-2)	9	Sullivan (8-1)	9	Chester (8-1)	9	Casey-Westfield (8-1)
24	Sandwich (5-4)	24	Frankfort (6-4)	24	Red Bud (6-3)	24	Hope Acad (5-4)
4	Dixon (8-1)	4	Princeton (8-1)	4	Bismarck-Henning (9-0)	4	Althoff (8-1)
29	Charleston (5-4)	29	Clinton (5-4)	29	Marian Cath-W (4-5)	29	Tuscola (5-4)
13	Manteno (7-2)	13	Roxana (7-2)	13	Arthur-Lovington (8-1)	13	Rushville (7-2)
20	Carterville (6-3)	20	Unity-Tolono (6-3)	20	Rockridge (6-3)	20	Carrollton (6-3)
5	East Richland (8-1)	5	Roseville-Yorkwood (8-1)	5	Tri-Valley (8-1)	5	Calhoun (8-1)
28	Effingham (5-4)	28	Prairie Cent (5-4)	28	Dwight (5-4)	28	Brown Co (5-4)
12	Boylan (7-2)	12	Monticello (7-2)	12	Johnston City (8-2)	12	Salt Fork (7-2)
21	Columbia (6-3)	21	Benton (6-3)	21	Westville (6-3)	21	Wethersfield (6-3)

2	Waterloo (8-1)	2	Byron (9-0)	2	Maroa-Forsyth (9-0)	2	Leroy (9-0)
31	Kewanee (5-4)	31	Aurora Cent Cath (5-4)	31	Athens (4-5)	31	Aurora Chr (5-4)
15	Macomb (7-2)	15	DuQuoin (7-2)	15	Chicago Chr (7-2)	15	Nokomis (7-2)
18	St Laurence (6-3)	18	Montini (6-3)	18	Carmi-White Co (7-2)	18	Winchester (6-3)
7	Rochester (7-2)	7	Greenville (8-1)	7	Vandalia (8-1)	7	Greenfield (8-1)
26	Geneseo-Darnall (5-4)	26	King (6-3)	26	Bloom'ton Cent Cath (5-4)	26	Galena (5-4)
10	Coal City (7-2)	10	Bowen (8-1)	10	Seneca (8-1)	10	Sesser (8-1)
23	Johnsburg (5-4)	23	Mt Carmel (6-3)	23	Virden (6-3)	23	Cumberland (6-3)
3	Wheaton Acad (8-1)	3	Pecatonica (9-0)	3	Farmington (9-0)	3	Stark Co (9-0)
30	Ridgewood (5-4)	30	Carlinville (5-4)	30	Unity-Mendon (4-5)	30	Routt (5-4)
14	Murphysboro (7-2)	14	Paxton (7-2)	14	Notre Dame-Quincy (7-2)	14	Princeville (7-2)
19	DePaul Col Prep (6-3)	19	Peotone (6-3)	19	Pearl City (6-3)	19	Marquette-Ottawa (6-3)
6	South Shore Intl (8-0)	6	Eureka (8-1)	6	Nashville (8-1)	6	Camp Pt-Cent (8-1)
27	Mt Zion (5-4)	27	Genoa-Kingston (5-4)	27	Erie-Prophetstown (5-4)	27	Morrison (5-5)
11	Richmond-Burton (7-2)	11	Williamsville (7-2)	11	Momence (8-1)	11	Newman Cath (7-2)
22	Phoenix Military (6-2)	22	Olympia (6-3)	22	Shelbyville (6-3)	22	Dupo (6-3)

wildkit_fan · Oct 8, 2024

Looks like I need to correct some schools from conferences that don't participate in playoffs. UPDATED above

Blacknight36 · Oct 8, 2024

Awesome. Great work. I assume you're retired.

SiuCubFan8 · Oct 8, 2024

8A and 7A are the only ones that go true 1-32 but very cool, nonetheless.

OldSICA · Oct 8, 2024

I’m still curious how St Laurence is 4A and listed 844 on state site.
All co-ed years enrollment, no multiplier
2021-2022-913
2022-2023-1030
2023-2024-1110
2024-2025-1203

SiuCubFan8 · Oct 8, 2024

OldSICA said:
I’m still curious how St Laurence is 4A and listed 844 on state site.
All co-ed years enrollment, no multiplier
2021-2022-913
2022-2023-1030
2023-2024-1110
2024-2025-1203

On IHSA playoff outlook they are in 5A with their 844-enrollment listed.

OldSICA · Oct 8, 2024

SiuCubFan8 said:
On IHSA playoff outlook they are in 5A with their 844-enrollment listed.

I’m still confused at how they are listed at 844

wildkit_fan · Oct 9, 2024

Updated, trying to align with IHSA method.... select field 1st, then create classes, and select/seed based on Wins followed by Opponent Wins (both projected by Massey). Ties (same wins, same opponent wins) in my case were broken randomly:

8A		7A		6A		5A
1	Lincoln-Way East (9-0)	1	Downers Grove-N (9-0)	1	Cary-Grove (9-0)	1	Sycamore (9-0)
32	Glenbard West (4-5)	32	Reavis (5-4)	32	Fenton (5-4)	32	Bulls Col Prep (5-4)
16	Loyola Acad (6-3)	16	Brother Rice (6-3)	16	Kennedy (7-2)	16	Corliss (6-3)
17	Maine South (6-3)	17	Prospect (6-3)	17	Kaneland (6-3)	17	Sacred Ht-Griffin (6-3)
8	Barrington (7-2)	8	Chi-Mt Carmel (7-2)	8	Fenwick (7-2)	8	Peoria (7-2)
25	Niles West (6-3)	25	Schaumburg (5-4)	25	Shepard (6-3)	25	Freeport (5-4)
9	Sandburg (7-2)	9	St Charles-North (7-2)	9	Richards-OL (7-2)	9	Woodstock North (7-2)
24	Minooka (6-3)	24	Wheaton-W'ville S (5-4)	24	Glenbard South (6-3)	24	Burlington Cent (5-4)
4	Marist (8-1)	4	Batavia (8-1)	4	Kankakee (8-1)	4	Prairie Ridge (8-1)
29	Joliet West (5-4)	29	Andrew (5-4)	29	Springfield (5-4)	29	Marmion Acad (5-4)
13	Stevenson (7-2)	13	Normal (7-2)	13	Pekin (7-2)	13	Joliet Cath (6-3)
20	Belleville-East (6-3)	20	Hoffman Estates (6-3)	20	Glenwood (6-3)	20	Jacksonville (6-3)
5	Naperville Cent (8-1)	5	Young (8-1)	5	Belvidere North (8-1)	5	Triad (8-1)
28	Glenbrook South (5-4)	28	Harlem (5-4)	28	Riverside-Brookfield (5-4)	28	Goode STEM (5-4)
12	Downers Grove-S (7-2)	12	Arlington Hts-Hersey (7-2)	12	Wauconda (7-2)	12	Morris (6-3)
21	South Elgin (6-3)	21	Bradley-Bourbonnais (6-3)	21	Lake Forest (6-3)	21	Marion (6-3)

2	Oswego (9-0)	2	Hononegah (9-0)	2	Libertyville (8-1)	2	Rochelle (8-1)
31	Lockport Twp (4-5)	31	W Chicago (5-4)	31	Senn (5-4)	31	Prosser (5-4)
15	Naperville-North (6-3)	15	Addison Trail (7-2)	15	Mather (7-2)	15	St Francis (6-3)
18	Warren Twp (6-3)	18	Lincoln-Way Cent (6-3)	18	Lemont (6-3)	18	Metamora (6-3)
7	Fremd (8-1)	7	Maine West (8-1)	7	East St Louis (8-1)	7	Mahomet-Seymour (7-2)
26	Edwardsville (6-3)	26	Lincoln Way West (5-4)	26	Dunlap (6-3)	26	Centralia (5-4)
10	York (7-2)	10	Glenbard East (7-2)	10	Washington (7-2)	10	Grayslake North (7-2)
23	Taft (6-3)	23	Kenwood (5-4)	23	Crete Monee (6-3)	23	Hillcrest (5-4)
3	Aurora-West (9-0)	3	Quincy (9-0)	3	Geneva (8-1)	3	Morgan Park (8-1)
30	Waubonsie Val (5-4)	30	Willowbrook (5-4)	30	Grant (5-4)	30	Sterling (5-4)
14	Plainfield South (7-2)	14	Jacobs (7-2)	14	Normal-Comm W (7-2)	14	Benet Acad (6-3)
19	Homewood-Flossmoor (6-3)	19	Rolling Meadows (6-3)	19	Simeon (6-3)	19	Calumet City-TFN (6-3)
6	Lyons (8-1)	6	Lincoln Park (8-1)	6	Antioch (8-1)	6	Nazareth Acad (7-2)
27	Plainfield North (5-4)	27	Wheaton-North (5-4)	27	Lake Zurich (5-4)	27	Payton Prep (5-4)
11	Palatine (7-2)	11	St Rita (7-2)	11	Bloomington (7-2)	11	Highland (6-3)
22	Huntley (6-3)	22	Moline (6-3)	22	Oak Forest (6-3)	22	Westinghouse (5-4)

SilverHelmet · Oct 9, 2024

wickerpark wildcat said:
Updated , trying to align with IHSA method.... select field 1st, then create classes, and select/seed based on Wins followed by Opponent Wins (both projected by Massey). Ties (same wins, same opponent wins) in my case were broken randomly:

As a Glenbard West fan, I prefer your first model. Hitters sneaking in as a 31 seed instead of 32. 8A seems like LWE vs the field this year so not being 32 is ideal. Oswego would still likely kill GW but mindset would be different going there instead of LWE.

wildkit_fan · Oct 9, 2024

brucealmighy said:
As a Glenbard West fan, I prefer your first model. Hitters sneaking in as a 31 seed instead of 32. 8A seems like LWE vs the field this year so not being 32 is ideal. Oswego would still likely kill GW but mindset would be different going there instead of LWE.

Lockport opponents expected to have 52 wins, while GBW expected to have 50... so will be very close if those are indeed the two last spots.

tmjgrady · Oct 9, 2024

SiuCubFan8 said:
On IHSA playoff outlook they are in 5A with their 844-enrollment listed.

The most recent week 6 outlook has the black n gold as the 9th largest school in 4A. It may shift a bit over the next few weeks and as far as 844, someone explained it to me but I forgot the IHSA logic

wildkit_fan · Oct 9, 2024

tmjgrady said:
The most recent week 6 outlook has the black n gold as the 9th largest school in 4A. It may shift a bit over the next few weeks and as far as 844, someone explained it to me but I forgot the IHSA logic

The projection I have above would make them largest 4A qualifier at 844, Morris the smallest 5A at 848.

SiuCubFan8 · Oct 9, 2024

tmjgrady said:
The most recent week 6 outlook has the black n gold as the 9th largest school in 4A. It may shift a bit over the next few weeks and as far as 844, someone explained it to me but I forgot the IHSA logic

Here is what the IHSA site says regarding enrollment, not sure if this adds any clarification or not. They are not multiplied fyi.

The list below gives official IHSA member school enrollments for the two-year cycle beginning in 2023-24.
The figure listed under "Enrollment" is the average of the school's enrollment during the previous two school years, as reported to the Illinois State Board of Education (ISBE), and adjusted by the IHSA according to Policy 17

Cross Bones · Oct 9, 2024

This Massey guy doesn't have much Raider Pride

Wags14 · Oct 10, 2024

Who does Massey have Geneva losing to? They should end up 9-0

wildkit_fan · Oct 10, 2024

Fisk72 said:
Who does Massey have Geneva losing to? They should end up 9-0

They are predicted to win each game individually, but Massey gives an overall Expected Wins & Losses remaining using probabilities of each game.... so it comes up with a prediction of Geneva going 2.45 wins and 0.55 losses in next 3 games, so my records represent rounding those numbers.

To give some intuition, imagine being a 51% favorite in every game... you wouldn't expect a team to finish undefeated. In Geneva's case, the probability of winning each of next 3 (per Massey) is 88%, 94% and 63%, which results in expected total wins of 2.45.

Wittymoniker1 · Oct 10, 2024

Fisk72 said:
Who does Massey have Geneva losing to? They should end up 9-0

In my opinion:

Geneva 42, Wheaton North 21
Geneva 49, SCE 12
Geneva 28, SCN 14.

I agree: 9 - 0.

crusader_of_90 · Oct 10, 2024

ESL will shock the world and beat IMG.

SiuCubFan8 · Oct 10, 2024

crusader_of_90 said:
ESL will shock the world and beat IMG.

IMG gets two weeks to get ready for Flyer...

crusader_of_90 · Oct 10, 2024

SiuCubFan8 said:
IMG gets two weeks to get ready for Flyer...

They will get fat and soft during that time!

godfthr53 · Oct 10, 2024

Something is up with 5A. Benet, Francis and Naz don't seem right. You seem to have Naz losing to 1 of the 2, but also have the other 2 losing.

SiuCubFan8 · Oct 10, 2024

godfthr53 said:
Something is up with 5A. Benet, Francis and Naz don't seem right. You seem to have Naz losing to 1 of the 2, but also have the other 2 losing.

I think it has to do with the way the predictions were done. It was not done for example SF is beating Marian, DePaul and losing to Naz. It took the percentages ect...

PowerI66_ · Oct 10, 2024

godfthr53 said:
Something is up with 5A. Benet, Francis and Naz don't seem right. You seem to have Naz losing to 1 of the 2, but also have the other 2 losing.

That happened in 8A as well with Fremd, Palatine, and Barrington

Gold5606 · Oct 10, 2024

Man….could we get a Loyola at LWE week 2 of the playoffs? East most likely will go 9-0 with 1 seed. Loyola, I think, will lose to Carmel. They should get highest 6-3 seed which puts them at 15-17 seed??? I can’t remember if Loyola ever had to play at East in the past. Could be a monster week 2 game.

Wittymoniker1 · Oct 14, 2024

Now that Week 7 is in the books and a few "upsets" happening, are you submitting a new list?

SiuCubFan8 · Oct 14, 2024

New IHSA outlook came out and Laurence is 5A now, barley.

wildkit_fan · Oct 14, 2024

Updated with most recent results & Massey Projections.
Last 4 IN: Dwight, Bulls Prep, Red Hill, Kenwood.
Last 4 OUT: Plainfield North, Oswego East, Glenbard West, Lockport.

8A		7A		6A		5A
1	Lincoln-Way East (9-0)	1	Young (9-0)	1	Geneva (9-0)	1	Nazareth Acad (8-1)
32	Niles West (5-4)	32	Kenwood (4-5)	32	Senn (5-4)	32	Bulls Col Prep (5-4)
16	Sandburg (6-3)	16	Bradley-Bourbonnais (7-2)	16	Lemont (6-3)	16	St Francis (6-3)
17	Naperville-North (6-3)	17	Moline (7-2)	17	Mather (6-3)	17	Burlington Cent (6-3)
8	Lyons (8-1)	8	Chi-Mt Carmel (7-2)	8	East St Louis (8-1)	8	Mahomet-Seymour (7-2)
25	Edwardsville (6-3)	25	Wheaton-W'ville S (5-4)	25	Kaneland (5-4)	25	Sterling (5-4)
9	Stevenson (8-1)	9	St Charles-North (7-2)	9	Washington (7-2)	9	Prairie Ridge (7-2)
24	Andrew (6-3)	24	Willowbrook (6-3)	24	Dunlap (6-3)	24	Centralia (5-4)
4	Marist (8-1)	4	Batavia (8-1)	4	Richards-OL (8-1)	4	Morgan Park (8-1)
29	Homewood-Flossmoor (5-4)	29	Guilford (5-4)	29	Springfield (5-4)	29	Marmion Acad (5-4)
13	Downers Grove-S (7-2)	13	Fenwick (7-2)	13	Normal-Comm W (7-2)	13	Benet Acad (6-3)
20	Belleville-East (6-3)	20	Arlington Hts-Hersey (6-3)	20	Lake Forest (6-3)	20	Marion (6-3)
5	Naperville Cent (8-1)	5	Downers Grove-N (8-1)	5	Kankakee (8-1)	5	Triad (8-1)
28	Warren Twp (5-4)	28	Wheaton-North (5-4)	28	Riverside-Brookfield (5-4)	28	Payton Prep (5-4)
12	Palatine (7-2)	12	Pekin (7-2)	12	Wauconda (7-2)	12	Highland (6-3)
21	South Elgin (6-3)	21	Lincoln-Way Cent (6-3)	21	Oak Forest (6-3)	21	Prosser (6-3)

2	Oswego (9-0)	2	Hononegah (9-0)	2	Cary-Grove (9-0)	2	Sycamore (8-1)
31	Joliet West (5-4)	31	W Chicago (5-4)	31	Grant (5-4)	31	Jacksonville (5-4)
15	Plainfield South (7-2)	15	Jacobs (7-2)	15	Kennedy (7-2)	15	Morris (6-3)
18	Loyola Acad (6-3)	18	Addison Trail (7-2)	18	Glenwood (6-3)	18	Metamora (6-3)
7	Fremd (8-1)	7	Maine West (8-1)	7	Antioch (8-1)	7	Corliss (7-2)
26	Curie (5-4)	26	Lincoln Way West (5-4)	26	Lake Zurich (5-4)	26	Goode STEM (5-4)
10	Barrington (7-2)	10	St Rita (7-2)	10	Bloomington (7-2)	10	Woodstock North (7-2)
23	Taft (6-3)	23	Hoffman Estates (6-3)	23	Fenton (6-3)	23	Hillcrest (5-4)
3	Aurora-West (9-0)	3	Quincy (9-0)	3	Libertyville (8-1)	3	Rochelle (8-1)
30	Waubonsie Val (5-4)	30	Harlem (5-4)	30	Deerfield (5-4)	30	Tinley Park (5-4)
14	Minooka (7-2)	14	Normal (7-2)	14	Shepard (7-2)	14	Joliet Cath (6-3)
19	Maine South (6-3)	19	Brother Rice (6-3)	19	Crete Monee (6-3)	19	Sacred Ht-Griffin (6-3)
6	York (8-1)	6	Lincoln Park (8-1)	6	Belvidere North (8-1)	6	Peoria (7-2)
27	Glenbrook South (5-4)	27	Schaumburg (5-4)	27	Eisenhower-BI (5-4)	27	Calumet City-TFN (5-4)
11	Glenbard East (7-2)	11	Prospect (7-2)	11	Simeon (7-2)	11	Grayslake North (7-2)
22	Huntley (6-3)	22	Rolling Meadows (6-3)	22	Glenbard South (6-3)	22	Westinghouse (5-4)

wildkit_fan · Oct 14, 2024

Smaller schools....

4A		3A		2A		1A
1	Breese (9-0)	1	St Joseph-Ogden (9-0)	1	Farmington (9-0)	1	Leroy (9-0)
32	Rauner Col Prep (5-4)	32	Carver (5-4)	32	Dwight (5-4)	32	Red Hill (5-4)
16	University-Norm (7-2)	16	Unity-Tolono (6-3)	16	Warrensburg-Latham (7-2)	16	Tuscola (6-3)
17	Carterville (6-3)	17	Montini (6-3)	17	Carmi-White Co (7-2)	17	Wethersfield (6-3)
8	Richmond-Burton (7-2)	8	N Lawndale Col Prep (8-1)	8	Chester (8-1)	8	Sesser (8-1)
25	Ridgewood (5-4)	25	Frankfort (6-3)	25	Erie-Prophetstown (5-4)	25	Dupo (6-3)
9	Rochester (7-2)	9	Eureka (8-1)	9	Momence (8-1)	9	Stark Co (8-1)
24	Sandwich (5-4)	24	Dyett (6-3)	24	Shelbyville (6-3)	24	Aurora Chr (6-3)
4	Dixon (8-1)	4	Pecatonica (8-1)	4	Maroa-Forsyth (9-0)	4	Calhoun (8-1)
29	Comer Prep (5-4)	29	Clinton (5-4)	29	Illini West (5-4)	29	Galena (5-4)
13	Macomb (7-2)	13	King (7-2)	13	Elmwood (8-1)	13	Salt Fork (7-2)
20	Johnsburg (6-3)	20	Paxton (6-3)	20	El Paso-Gridley (6-3)	20	Cumberland (6-3)
5	East Richland (8-1)	5	Princeton (8-1)	5	Tri-Valley (8-1)	5	Gibson City (8-1)
28	Geneseo-Darnall (5-4)	28	Prairie Cent (5-4)	28	Red Bud (5-4)	28	Routt (5-4)
12	Manteno (7-2)	12	Williamsville (7-2)	12	Arthur-Lovington (8-1)	12	Newman Cath (7-2)
21	Mt Zion (6-3)	21	Fairfield (6-3)	21	Rockridge (6-3)	21	Rockford Luth (6-3)

2	Waterloo (8-1)	2	Sullivan (9-0)	2	Wilmington (9-0)	2	Lena Winslow (9-0)
31	Clemente (5-4)	31	Harrisburg (5-4)	31	Flora (5-4)	31	Bronzeville (5-4)
15	Cahokia (7-2)	15	Chi-Marshall (7-2)	15	Pearl City (7-2)	15	Rushville (7-2)
18	Columbia (6-3)	18	Benton (6-3)	18	Johnston City (7-2)	18	Winchester (6-3)
7	South Shore Intl (8-1)	7	Roseville-Yorkwood (8-1)	7	Notre Dame-Quincy (8-1)	7	Camp Pt-Cent (8-1)
26	Effingham (5-4)	26	Phoenix Military (6-3)	26	Sangamon Val (5-4)	26	Hope Acad (5-4)
10	Coal City (7-2)	10	DuQuoin (7-2)	10	Vandalia (8-1)	10	Princeville (8-1)
23	Chi-Ag Science (6-3)	23	New Berlin (6-3)	23	Virden (6-3)	23	Stockton (6-3)
3	Chi-Sullivan (8-1)	3	Byron (9-0)	3	Bismarck-Henning (9-0)	3	Casey-Westfield (9-0)
30	Notre Dame-Peoria (5-4)	30	Mt Carmel (5-4)	30	Bloom'ton Cent Cath (5-4)	30	Central A&M (5-4)
14	Murphysboro (7-2)	14	Roxana (7-2)	14	Seneca (8-1)	14	Nokomis (7-2)
19	DePaul Col Prep (6-3)	19	Peotone (6-3)	19	Chicago Chr (7-2)	19	Carrollton (6-3)
6	Wheaton Acad (8-1)	6	Greenville (8-1)	6	Nashville (8-1)	6	Greenfield (8-1)
27	Kewanee (5-4)	27	Oregon (5-4)	27	Carlinville (5-4)	27	Brown Co (5-4)
11	Boylan (7-2)	11	Monticello (7-2)	11	Pana (8-1)	11	Althoff (8-1)
22	St Laurence (6-3)	22	Olympia (6-3)	22	Westville (6-3)	22	Marquette-Ottawa (6-3)

wildkit_fan · Oct 14, 2024

SiuCubFan8 said:
New IHSA outlook came out and Laurence is 5A now, barley.

Projections I just updated would have St Laurence holding on to spot of largest 4A school, Morris as smallest 5A

SiuCubFan8 · Oct 14, 2024

wickerpark wildcat said:
Projections I just updated would have St Laurence holding on to spot of largest 4A school, Morris as smallest 5A

Probably should have put into a different thread. Wasn’t trying to say yours was incorrect.

PowerI66_ · Oct 14, 2024

wickerpark wildcat said:
Updated with most recent results & Massey Projections.
Last 4 IN: Dwight, Bulls Prep, Red Hill, Kenwood.
Last 4 OUT: Plainfield North, Oswego East, Glenbard West, Lockport.

8A 7A 6A 5A
1
Lincoln-Way East (9-0)
1
Young (9-0)
1
Geneva (9-0)
1
Nazareth Acad (8-1)
32
Niles West (5-4)
32
Kenwood (4-5)
32
Senn (5-4)
32
Bulls Col Prep (5-4)
16
Sandburg (6-3)
16
Bradley-Bourbonnais (7-2)
16
Lemont (6-3)
16
St Francis (6-3)
17
Naperville-North (6-3)
17
Moline (7-2)
17
Mather (6-3)
17
Burlington Cent (6-3)
8
Lyons (8-1)
8
Chi-Mt Carmel (7-2)
8
East St Louis (8-1)
8
Mahomet-Seymour (7-2)
25
Edwardsville (6-3)
25
Wheaton-W'ville S (5-4)
25
Kaneland (5-4)
25
Sterling (5-4)
9
Stevenson (8-1)
9
St Charles-North (7-2)
9
Washington (7-2)
9
Prairie Ridge (7-2)
24
Andrew (6-3)
24
Willowbrook (6-3)
24
Dunlap (6-3)
24
Centralia (5-4)
4
Marist (8-1)
4
Batavia (8-1)
4
Richards-OL (8-1)
4
Morgan Park (8-1)
29
Homewood-Flossmoor (5-4)
29
Guilford (5-4)
29
Springfield (5-4)
29
Marmion Acad (5-4)
13
Downers Grove-S (7-2)
13
Fenwick (7-2)
13
Normal-Comm W (7-2)
13
Benet Acad (6-3)
20
Belleville-East (6-3)
20
Arlington Hts-Hersey (6-3)
20
Lake Forest (6-3)
20
Marion (6-3)
5
Naperville Cent (8-1)
5
Downers Grove-N (8-1)
5
Kankakee (8-1)
5
Triad (8-1)
28
Warren Twp (5-4)
28
Wheaton-North (5-4)
28
Riverside-Brookfield (5-4)
28
Payton Prep (5-4)
12
Palatine (7-2)
12
Pekin (7-2)
12
Wauconda (7-2)
12
Highland (6-3)
21
South Elgin (6-3)
21
Lincoln-Way Cent (6-3)
21
Oak Forest (6-3)
21
Prosser (6-3)
2
Oswego (9-0)
2
Hononegah (9-0)
2
Cary-Grove (9-0)
2
Sycamore (8-1)
31
Joliet West (5-4)
31
W Chicago (5-4)
31
Grant (5-4)
31
Jacksonville (5-4)
15
Plainfield South (7-2)
15
Jacobs (7-2)
15
Kennedy (7-2)
15
Morris (6-3)
18
Loyola Acad (6-3)
18
Addison Trail (7-2)
18
Glenwood (6-3)
18
Metamora (6-3)
7
Fremd (8-1)
7
Maine West (8-1)
7
Antioch (8-1)
7
Corliss (7-2)
26
Curie (5-4)
26
Lincoln Way West (5-4)
26
Lake Zurich (5-4)
26
Goode STEM (5-4)
10
Barrington (7-2)
10
St Rita (7-2)
10
Bloomington (7-2)
10
Woodstock North (7-2)
23
Taft (6-3)
23
Hoffman Estates (6-3)
23
Fenton (6-3)
23
Hillcrest (5-4)
3
Aurora-West (9-0)
3
Quincy (9-0)
3
Libertyville (8-1)
3
Rochelle (8-1)
30
Waubonsie Val (5-4)
30
Harlem (5-4)
30
Deerfield (5-4)
30
Tinley Park (5-4)
14
Minooka (7-2)
14
Normal (7-2)
14
Shepard (7-2)
14
Joliet Cath (6-3)
19
Maine South (6-3)
19
Brother Rice (6-3)
19
Crete Monee (6-3)
19
Sacred Ht-Griffin (6-3)
6
York (8-1)
6
Lincoln Park (8-1)
6
Belvidere North (8-1)
6
Peoria (7-2)
27
Glenbrook South (5-4)
27
Schaumburg (5-4)
27
Eisenhower-BI (5-4)
27
Calumet City-TFN (5-4)
11
Glenbard East (7-2)
11
Prospect (7-2)
11
Simeon (7-2)
11
Grayslake North (7-2)
22
Huntley (6-3)
22
Rolling Meadows (6-3)
22
Glenbard South (6-3)
22
Westinghouse (5-4)

7A top would be a grind

OldSICA · Oct 14, 2024

SiuCubFan8 said:
New IHSA outlook came out and Laurence is 5A now, barley.

They should be 5A they have over 1200 student's and been over 1000 for the last 3 years

wildkit_fan · Oct 14, 2024

SiuCubFan8 said:
Probably should have put into a different thread. Wasn’t trying to say yours was incorrect.

I didn’t take it that way, was just reinforcing that they are right on the border of 4/5A

crazylegs777 · Oct 14, 2024

tmjgrady said:
The most recent week 6 outlook has the black n gold as the 9th largest school in 4A. It may shift a bit over the next few weeks and as far as 844, someone explained it to me but I forgot the IHSA logic

lol You used logic & Ihsa in the same sentence

Wittymoniker1 · Oct 21, 2024

For 7A, The Hononegah has one loss. They had to forfeit one of their games.

belviderebucs11 · Oct 21, 2024

Harlem in 7A is currently 7-1. They got the win over Hononegah and just beat Boylan Saturday.

wildkit_fan · Oct 21, 2024

Wittymoniker1 said:
For 7A, The Hononegah has one loss. They had to forfeit one of their games.

Gotcha- was just using records from the Massey site, which does not reflect the forfeit. Will update in this weeks update

Wittymoniker1 · Oct 21, 2024

wickerpark wildcat said:
Gotcha- was just using records from the Massey site, which does not reflect the forfeit. Will update in this weeks update

Appreciate you doing this!

wildkit_fan · Oct 21, 2024

OCT 21 update... using current records + Massey predicted week 9 outcomes.

Notes:

St Rita going up->7A moves Quincy to 6A
Glenbard South, Antioch & East St L going ->6A; Simeon, Kaneland & Dunlap down to 5A
4-5 teams in: Kenwood, Lane, Oswego East, Collinsville, Glenbard We
Last 4 out: Lake Zurich, Ridgewood, Morton, Mundelein
Updated: Bold = Largest school in Class; Blue = Smallest schools in Class; Red = choosing to play up in Class

*** Updated at 11:40AM after discovering issue with Rich Central projection.

8A		7A		6A		5A
1	Lincoln-Way East (9-0)	1	Young (9-0)	1	Geneva (9-0)	1	Sycamore (9-0)
32	Oswego (East) (4-5)	32	Glenbard West (4-5)	32	Senn (5-4)	32	Bulls Col Prep (5-4)
16	Plainfield South (7-2)	16	Addison Trail (7-2)	16	Glenwood (7-2)	16	Benet Acad (6-3)
17	Loyola Acad (6-3)	17	Moline (7-2)	17	Lake Forest (7-2)	17	Corliss (6-3)
8	Fremd (8-1)	8	Maine West (8-1)	8	Bloomington (7-2)	8	Simeon (7-2)
25	Curie (5-4)	25	Andrew (6-3)	25	Glenbard South (6-3)	25	Prosser (6-2)
9	Stevenson (8-1)	9	Chi-Mt Carmel (7-2)	9	Pekin (7-2)	9	Prairie Ridge (7-2)
24	Plainfield North (5-4)	24	W Chicago (6-3)	24	Willowbrook (6-3)	24	Marion (6-3)
4	Aurora-West (9-0)	4	Downers Grove-N (8-1)	4	Richards-OL (8-1)	4	Morgan Park (8-1)
29	Joliet West (5-4)	29	Argo (5-4)	29	Springfield (5-4)	29	Sterling (5-4)
13	Belleville-East (7-3)	13	Jacobs (7-2)	13	Wauconda (7-2)	13	Highland (6-3)
20	South Elgin (6-3)	20	Arlington Hts-Hersey (6-3)	20	Kennedy (7-1)	20	Centralia (6-3)
5	Barrington (8-1)	5	Normal (8-1)	5	Belvidere North (8-1)	5	Triad (8-1)
28	Waubonsie Val (5-4)	28	Wheaton-North (5-4)	28	Wheaton-W'ville S (5-4)	28	Sacred Ht-Griffin (5-4)
12	York (7-2)	12	Prospect (7-2)	12	Fenwick (7-2)	12	Grayslake North (7-2)
21	Huntley (6-3)	21	Lincoln-Way Cent (6-3)	21	Lemont (6-3)	21	Calumet City-TFN (6-3)

2	Lyons (9-0)	2	Glenbard East (8-1)	2	Cary-Grove (9-0)	2	Nazareth Acad (8-1)
31	Lane (4-5)	31	Collinsville (4-5)	31	Deerfield (5-4)	31	Marmion Acad (5-4)
15	Minooka (7-2)	15	Bradley-Bourbonnais (7-2)	15	Crete Monee (7-2)	15	Joliet Cath (6-3)
18	Maine South (6-3)	18	Lincoln Way West (6-3)	18	Antioch (7-2)	18	St Francis (6-3)
7	Naperville Cent (8-1)	7	Lincoln Park (8-1)	7	Libertyville (7-2)	7	Peoria (7-2)
26	Glenbrook South (5-4)	26	Edwardsville (6-3)	26	Oak Forest (6-3)	26	Westinghouse (5-4)
10	Naperville-North (7-2)	10	St Charles-North (7-2)	10	Kankakee (7-2)	10	Metamora (7-3)
23	Sandburg (5-4)	23	Hoffman Estates (6-3)	23	Grant (6-3)	23	Jacksonville (6-3)
3	Oswego (9-0)	3	Batavia (8-1)	3	Quincy (9-0)	3	Rochelle (8-1)
30	Niles West (5-4)	30	Kenwood (4-5)	30	Guilford (5-4)	30	Payton Prep (5-4)
14	Downers Grove-S (7-2)	14	Harlem (7-2)	14	Normal-Comm W (7-2)	14	Kaneland (6-3)
19	Warren Twp (6-3)	19	Brother Rice (6-3)	19	Shepard (7-2)	19	Burlington Cent (6-3)
6	Marist (8-1)	6	Hononegah (8-1)	6	East St Louis (8-1)	6	Mahomet-Seymour (7-2)
27	Homewood-Flossmoor (5-4)	27	Schaumburg (5-4)	27	Fenton (6-3)	27	Hillcrest (5-4)
11	Palatine (7-2)	11	St Rita (7-2)	11	Washington (7-2)	11	Woodstock North (7-2)
22	Taft (6-3)	22	Rolling Meadows (6-3)	22	Mather (6-3)	22	Dunlap (6-4)

Projected Playoff Brackets based on Massey

Junior

Junior

Junior

Sophomore

All-Conference

Redshirt

All-Conference

Redshirt

Junior

All-Conference

Junior

Senior

Junior

All-Conference

All-Conference

Redshirt

Junior

All-Conference

All-American

All-Conference

All-American

All-Conference

All-Conference

All-Conference

Freshman

All-Conference

All-Conference

Junior

Junior

Junior

All-Conference

All-Conference

Redshirt

Junior

Senior

All-Conference

Redshirt

Junior

All-Conference

Junior