What are your thoughts??
http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-ba...oach-k-one-and-done/1rfrlhgh7npp1wqtu9e1ux7z1
http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-ba...oach-k-one-and-done/1rfrlhgh7npp1wqtu9e1ux7z1
Is the Duke-Kentucky system working?
- Thread starter hart2chesson
- Start date
Personally I'd like to see more balance. I like the fact we are interested in sub-five stars Girard and Moore. Pair them with a couple of fives and I think it works better in the long run. I didn't check thoroughly, but I think Nova had maybe two five stars on the entire roster. The complete remake every year is frustrating.
OFC
OFC
Yes and no.
Yes. We've had three classes with multiple one-and-done's. With one of those we won a national championship.
No. The yearly changes to Duke's roster make it frustrating as a 'purist' fan. Plus, the disappointment of how the last two season's have ended. Although, I'd surmise the disappointment would be the same regardless of who was on the roster.
I know basketball is a game of so many if's, but if Grayson's shot drops against Kansas at the end of regulation then we have two Final Four's in three year's with multiple one-and-done's. Who wouldn't take that?
I'm pretty much down the middle. The selfish person in me wants wins more than anything else. What made 2010 so fun was watching a group who had some giant growing pains to go through first. I didn't always enjoy those growing pains, though. The three years prior to that were tough. But, I'd argue 2015 was every bit as fun, and the three national championships before the two aforementioned, as well.
This is a fan message board. While I understand the argument against the one-and-done process, I still think that ultimately winning solves most of those perceived issues. Duke just hasn't won at the rate we'd like with some really talented teams the last two season's.
Yes. We've had three classes with multiple one-and-done's. With one of those we won a national championship.
No. The yearly changes to Duke's roster make it frustrating as a 'purist' fan. Plus, the disappointment of how the last two season's have ended. Although, I'd surmise the disappointment would be the same regardless of who was on the roster.
I know basketball is a game of so many if's, but if Grayson's shot drops against Kansas at the end of regulation then we have two Final Four's in three year's with multiple one-and-done's. Who wouldn't take that?
I'm pretty much down the middle. The selfish person in me wants wins more than anything else. What made 2010 so fun was watching a group who had some giant growing pains to go through first. I didn't always enjoy those growing pains, though. The three years prior to that were tough. But, I'd argue 2015 was every bit as fun, and the three national championships before the two aforementioned, as well.
This is a fan message board. While I understand the argument against the one-and-done process, I still think that ultimately winning solves most of those perceived issues. Duke just hasn't won at the rate we'd like with some really talented teams the last two season's.
That is why I really want Girard. Would we have been better if Jeter and Thornton had stayed? Without Jeter leaving we probably don't get Bagley. Thornton could have helped us this year. If Bolden comes back I am pretty pleased with having 4 guys with a decent amount of experience back to blend with the 4 freshman.
I want balance. Yes it's hard to win it all, but having a good veteran or more, is so critical. Give me 2, no more than 3 one and done's a season. Develop the bench. After all, we're Duke right? Getting good talent shouldn't be a problem. Surely there's talent in between Bagley and Robinson across the country that can contribute with quality minutes.
This is divided: millennials on one side of the aisle, most on other side.
This is divided: millennials on one side of the aisle, most on other side.
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The Jeter and Thornton transfers set us back from that perspective. I always wished Chase would have accepted the redshirt that Duke wanted him to take. He was so young for his class that the extra year would have done wonders for him. With Derryck, we'll just never fully know what was going on there. We hear all the different stories, but I can't help but think both Duke and Derryck would have been better off had he stayed put. He's probably our starting point guard each of the last two year's and an upcoming senior captain.
I wish Thornton never left. He could have helped the last 2 years.
I don’t miss Jeter at all.
I really hope the NBA does something to help alleviate this problem.
OFC
OFC
Every season, Kentucky and Duke both have a team capable of winning a national title when it comes time for the tournament. Basketball is random and anything can happen in a 1 game scenario...all you can ask is for is a team good enough to win it all
For example, in 2014 you all had a way better team than Kentucky. We stumbled into the tournament and our backs were against the wall with having to play as an 8 seed. You guys were a 3 seed and were a pretty solid group. You all had a bad game against Mercer and we had a stretch of luck with the Aaron Harrison shots that hasn't been before.
Guess what...you all were better and just had a bad game. We were struggling all year and got hot at the right time. But I believe because of the talent...we both had good chances to win the championship and it was not an indictment on the "system" that season...we both had a lot of talent and luck/randomness just played a role in the tournament finish.
Then go to 2015....we were the favorites to win it all and went 38-0 before a bad game at the wrong time. You guys played your best ball in March and were the best team at the end of the season. Was the system broken that caused us to lose to Wisconsin where we needed to change and not want to have a team that dominant? No...I'd take that team any day of the week...we had a championship caliber team and just lost to a good Wisconsin team on a day we played bad.
For example, in 2014 you all had a way better team than Kentucky. We stumbled into the tournament and our backs were against the wall with having to play as an 8 seed. You guys were a 3 seed and were a pretty solid group. You all had a bad game against Mercer and we had a stretch of luck with the Aaron Harrison shots that hasn't been before.
Guess what...you all were better and just had a bad game. We were struggling all year and got hot at the right time. But I believe because of the talent...we both had good chances to win the championship and it was not an indictment on the "system" that season...we both had a lot of talent and luck/randomness just played a role in the tournament finish.
Then go to 2015....we were the favorites to win it all and went 38-0 before a bad game at the wrong time. You guys played your best ball in March and were the best team at the end of the season. Was the system broken that caused us to lose to Wisconsin where we needed to change and not want to have a team that dominant? No...I'd take that team any day of the week...we had a championship caliber team and just lost to a good Wisconsin team on a day we played bad.
You're bringing up the other discussion that is so heated christophero. It's a combination of things. First, because of K, Duke is the polarizing team in college. I think Duke could be on pay per view and still get a lot of viewers. K is in a predicament because of past kids leaving (Tyus) that cause a hurry up and grab one to protect yourself. Did Thornton only leave due to his family, or did his family not like Frank coming in, making for a crowded backcourt? So now K keeps recruiting to protect himself.
If we understand kids today leaving for the pros, then we should understand them leaving for somewhere for pt. Personally, I don't know why some of these kids come, then leave. Tucker is a mystery. He had to know he wouldn't play. K wasn't going to sit Allen, Duval and Trent more just to please him. We all know how K coaches, and how his minutes are distributed.
There's a lot of truth in here, IMO. What happened in 2015 was obviously a blessing on the surface, but it also caused the sort of chain reaction no one saw coming three months prior.
Initially, it looked like all would work out when Thornton came in early. And despite some lumps that all freshmen take their first year, I would classify Thornton's play as pretty good.....some obvious things to work on but about as good as we could expect from someone who was expected to be playing their senior year in high school at the time. I hope it wasn't the competition he was scared of, though. He was going to play.
There were a lot of rumors going around about Tucker. In a private conversation I had with @timo0402 last fall, he had mentioned some things before we even played our first game that he was hearing. Then, when watching the ACCT there were the segments with players and coaches they would air coming in and out of breaks....well, both Grayson and K were asked who was most likely to be late for practice. Both said Jordan Tucker. Their comments confirmed a lot of what Timo had told me prior. Since, others have said Tucker lacked the commitment that was required to be in the program. True or not? I don't know. One poster on another board said that if Jordan Tucker had half the drive that Jordan Goldwire had, he would be an All-ACC performer before he left Duke. Good to hear about Goldwire, but disappointing with regards to Tucker. My guess is that Tucker puts up pretty good numbers at Butler.
Developing the bench falls on Koach. His zero tolerance for mistakes during the regular season has to stop
It certainly did- it kind of goes to the whole issue though on why it isn’t as black and white as some want to make it out to be. It’s so incredibly difficult. Also, if the only barometer of success you’re using is NCAAT than you’re most likely going to be let down regardless of how you spin any “ Recruiting strategy.”
I think by and large an overwhelming amount of our fan base and I’m sure all fan bases of elite programs want a balance of experience and elite OADs. I think that is common sense. There is no substitute for elite talent and you cannot teach seasoned experience. I think when Kyrie popped for us, as we had failed to land a OAD prior to that, it landed in the perfect situation. Keep in mind we were also recruiting other OADs for that class- Barnes being the top target. We recruited a few- but again without the success we are enjoying now. There was zero way of knowing then or now how it would all unfold. But we recruited Barnes knowing that we also had Kyle, think about the MOP of the final 4 coming back and sharing time with a OAD. K figured it would work just fine.
The narrative then became well Duke only targets one or two and mixes them in with seasoned Vets, that’s the way to do it. Well, that’s not exactly true and it’s a great example of revisionist history. Duke was recruiting multiple OADs the very next year- we just happened to “only” land Austin. So yet again you have an elite level OAD mixed with vets. Ok well, we flamed out in the first round. So for the purists what was the excuse? I’d argue it was Ryan Kelly’s injury and the team chemistry which often gets blamed on Austin (incorrectly mind you) led to the downfall of what was a pretty solid year overall. The next year we had zero OAD, whiffing on all of our OAD targets. That year we went to the elite 8, got blown out in the 2nd half to the eventual champ and ended a pretty solid year. Again, I’d argue that Ryan’s injury that year was to partially blame for not getting to the final 4 or win the ACCT. The next year we have again just one OAD- to go along with a RSo transfer and both were the two best players on the court. Our downfall that year had zero to do with the OAD we had but the lack of a post presence and very inconsistent at best PG play. We also wiffed on a couple thought to be OAD post players and Tariq Black Who eventually went to KU. Then we get to the real crux of the argument. 2015. For the fifth straight season we bring back a lot of “experience” and we coupled that with the top player arguably in the country coming in- a big man we sorely missed the year prior. We also brought in a true PG and a wing that Duke had always had success with. Both thought to be at least two year players. We all know how that one turned out. We won it all, and the latter two used that momentum to propel themselves to the NBA. So- all of the points scored in the 2nd half of that game were from freshmen. However some solid Defense played by a junior and Soph helped win- that’s it then right that is the recipe! Let’s go to next year. Now we get, 1, OAD and you guessed it, we couple him with a lot of experience. However- not the experience that the staff had envisioned. We didn’t have our Soph pg. we had planned for. So the staff has to adjust- they convince a then would be senior to forego his last year and come into duke with the expectation that he will learn on the job better there than he would playing in HS another year, and be better prepared to lead the next years all stud class, of whom he was boys with. Well a key injury to a Senior happens, and we are left with some experienced fifth year senior center who’s experience was mostly watching and a stud Soph. To go along with learning on the job freshmen and an out of place position wise junior- forced to play pg while said freshmen was learning. The next year comes the studs- two guaranteed OADs, first time ever for the program, to go along with another two high level recruits one of which Bolden could be OAD. Wow. Guess what, we got that red shirt senior stud back in Amile, a junior all American, another senior stopper and we are ready to roll, not to mention a stud Soph in Luke. Problem- that learn on the job Pg took exception to his role a year earlier and bolted. Oh, so now we have no pg. that season also featured more injuries than any team has ever seen for one season i can remember. Season goes sideways, our coach goes out, we have the media frenzy over Grayson, and we still managed to make history in BK. We got a ****** ****** draw and lose- meanwhile our hated rival wins it all and everyone loses their **** and starts pointing fingers. How the tables had turned. Then we come to this year- one blown season with More baggage than you’d need for a week long trip to Italy and everyone is on pins and needles. We have a class of four guaranteed OADs, most in program history. Granted we couple them with Grayson, and a few sophs with limited experience. Not idea they say- that team won 29 games and was a tip away from the final 4.
So what did we learn. Well we learned that i left a lot out:
Andre takes a year Away
Mike G and Alex M transferred
Semi didn’t want to wait even though he knew Jabari and Rodney were there . He also didn’t listen to the staff on how to use his ability and Body- which ironically he finally did at SMU after sitting out 1.5 years.
Sheed gets booted- first kid ever- so he wasn’t there for 2016 either with Brandon
Amile gets hurt having a great senior start
Chase jester and DT transferred
Jordan Tucker transferred
Coach has surgery
Grayson has his meltdown
Luke and Frank leave unexpextedly for the league
And I’m sure I’m missing a ton. Bottom line is the answer is not as simple as some want to paint it. Every season is a roller coaster and things happen. The staff is learning froM each and every one of them. I think the “shift” in recruiting strategy if there even is much of one is that they are trying to make sure they aren’t left in the dust if kids leave unexpectedly for transfer or OAD or two and done.
As long as the system remains as it is, I want Coach K to pursue the best players each year so long as they are really committed to their Duke experience. I am proud of our one year alums and how they represent Duke. I watch snippets of NBA games solely to see former Duke players (like Winslow and Redick in their game last night). I wish the system were different but I don't want Duke to turn down five star players if they fit the Duke criteria.
From 2015 to today, the most veteran team we've had was the 15-16 team. Amile (Sr), Marshall (Sr), Matt (Jr), and Grayson (So) were starters and/or major contributors. Amile getting hurt really hurt that team. But add in a freshman Brandon Ingram and you have, at least by class, the makeup of the kind of team the anti-OADers are craving.
That was the worst team we've had the last 4+ years. In 15', 17', and 18' I thought we had a legit shot at winning it all. It'd take a big homer to think we could have won it in 16'. At least our chances were worse than the other years.
This year was the first we've had 4 OAD kids. Next year, we may, but it wouldn't be hard to imagine say Tre coming back for a soph year. So the 1 time we've had 4 OAD kids we lost in the elite 8 in overtime. The 2 times we've had 3 OAD kids we won a title and lost to hot SC team (they made the final 4) in a de facto road game after winning the conference title game by winning 4 in 4 days (including beating the eventual national champ). Both teams that didn't win it all had shooters disappear (Luke in 16' and Grayson/Gary in 18'). Those teams didn't lose because of lack of veterans.
I understand the emotional side of wanting veteran players. But the logical side of wanting less talent so they stay around longer is something I just can't understand.
Give me the most talented team and the best coach in the history of the game. That team has a chance to win it all every year.
That was the worst team we've had the last 4+ years. In 15', 17', and 18' I thought we had a legit shot at winning it all. It'd take a big homer to think we could have won it in 16'. At least our chances were worse than the other years.
This year was the first we've had 4 OAD kids. Next year, we may, but it wouldn't be hard to imagine say Tre coming back for a soph year. So the 1 time we've had 4 OAD kids we lost in the elite 8 in overtime. The 2 times we've had 3 OAD kids we won a title and lost to hot SC team (they made the final 4) in a de facto road game after winning the conference title game by winning 4 in 4 days (including beating the eventual national champ). Both teams that didn't win it all had shooters disappear (Luke in 16' and Grayson/Gary in 18'). Those teams didn't lose because of lack of veterans.
I understand the emotional side of wanting veteran players. But the logical side of wanting less talent so they stay around longer is something I just can't understand.
Give me the most talented team and the best coach in the history of the game. That team has a chance to win it all every year.
I've heard Coach K say (and w/justification) "we're spoiled" because we've had so much success. Its hard to win nattys, and just getting to a final four is extremely difficult. Last year I thought we had the right blend of OAD's and vets, but injuries derailed that dream.
However after Brooklyn I felt that team had it all together. Its always been my speculation Luke getting the ACC tourney MVP over Tatum splintered that team's chemistry somewhat. I dont know if you could ever say those two got along, and that may have exacerbated things.
This year even w/Grayson I felt we were just TOO YOUNG, and may be looking at the same movie next year. In short, I say you need a blend of two/three OAD's some solid 4 star vets who plan to stay multi-years and CHEMISTRY. You also need a little luck to reach the FF, and of course cut down the nets.
Per the DeCourcy article I would say hes on target about Duke winning, just not enough for the rabid Duke fan who gets stoked by lofty preseason expectations.
OFC
However after Brooklyn I felt that team had it all together. Its always been my speculation Luke getting the ACC tourney MVP over Tatum splintered that team's chemistry somewhat. I dont know if you could ever say those two got along, and that may have exacerbated things.
This year even w/Grayson I felt we were just TOO YOUNG, and may be looking at the same movie next year. In short, I say you need a blend of two/three OAD's some solid 4 star vets who plan to stay multi-years and CHEMISTRY. You also need a little luck to reach the FF, and of course cut down the nets.
Per the DeCourcy article I would say hes on target about Duke winning, just not enough for the rabid Duke fan who gets stoked by lofty preseason expectations.
OFC
Bingo. All we can ask for is a chance, and the only year we didn't have a chance was 2016. We are a Grayson roll away from making the final-four 2 out of 3 seasons with a OAD type team. That is exceptional.
Excellent post timo. I also believe the "shift" in going so hard after so many one and dones came after Tyus/Justice both left before they were expected leaving us in a bad spot the next season. Imagine if even just Tyus had stayed to play on the Ingram team.
I actually think the issue this year wasn't the youth. It was the expectation Grayson was going to be a Quinn style leader and that's just not who he is. Since he was "supposed" to be that guy, everyone kept waiting on it all season. He had it in flashes, but not overall.
Next year, with no predetermined leader, I think you'll see RJ come in and take over that role. He looks like the type of Alpha leader that will welcome the role.
continue to recruit the best talent......but the best talent doesnt have to play the huge minutes they get....develop the bench guys more by getting more in game reps..............of the 4 frosh this year..who do you turn away in lieu of a lesser talent that would be around longer?.....may be easy to say Duval now, but def not at the start of the season...........which 1 or 2 of the 4 coming next year do you say no to for a lesser recruit?.....tough choices, we have a legit chance yearly....we were a bounce from the F4 would have had us w/ 2 F4 w/ three heavy OAD squads......I'd gladly take that .....2015 over 30 wins....2017 28 wins and 2018 29 wins
I have friends from Vegas whose kids were good friends with Chase. They told me before Chase had even come to Duke that 1. he was a great kid and 2. thought of himself as one and done. I would guess nearly any top 50 recruit thinks that way nowadays.
Part of the problem nowadays is some kids don't want to run their own race. They'd rather run the race other kids are running. Chase was never, ever a one-and-done kid, but his dad had those visions all along. He's a kid with a ton of talent and will get a chance to showcase it on an Arizona team that right now, doesn't look like it's going to be very good.
Hated to see him leave.He day out a year and played less than twenty minutes per game at a school that B.B. is a distant second to football as opposed to having the keys to the car at a school where B.B. is king.Wonder how his uncle feels about that
I think that is especially true when those players are teammates and friends.
Which is kind of why it is so remarkable that Bolden so far has done that.
Once again, the debate isn't necessarily over taking a one and done. The issue is when Duke takes many of them, some posters whine when one or more role players transfer, or complain about their lack of skills in the minimum minutes they get. Luck, injuries...we know all that play into winning it all.
Until it happens though, every NATIONAL CHAMPION in my lifetime has had veteran contributors. That's a fact. The 2012 Anthony Davis led Kentucky team had 2 sophomores and a senior as their top 6 players, plus they were an extremely balanced team. He led them with 14 points a game.
Until it happens though, every NATIONAL CHAMPION in my lifetime has had veteran contributors. That's a fact. The 2012 Anthony Davis led Kentucky team had 2 sophomores and a senior as their top 6 players, plus they were an extremely balanced team. He led them with 14 points a game.
Considering every single college basketball team in the history of college basketball has had veteran contributors, even the Fab 5 Michigan team brought veterans off the bench, your statement is a fact. Great point!
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Sure. You lobbed a softball up and I hit it out of the park. I'm now gonna take my time rounding the bases and consider this one a victory.
Now here you go again grasshopper. A victory? In what? You just don't know much because either you had nobody to teach you valuable things, or you didn't pay attention when they tried teaching you. Like I said, you get so close, but you just can't see the forest because of the trees in front of you.
Unless you have an entirely new program, one with no transfers, you’ll never have a true all freshmen led team. So yes by definition all national champions have had vets. Joking aside-
Huffy made a great post in a different thread- there isn’t just one way to do it. He pointed out that nova had three different players red shirt for a variety of reasons- academic, transfer, injury might have been the third. Do you think Jay Wright could have planned for that so masterfully that it is now the blueprint on how to successfully get it done? Of course not, nor is how we did it in 2010 or 2015. Or our 2001 team that was lead by 3 sophs and a freshman in the starting five, of course next to a legend. I also contend that of that group in today’s game, only 2 would have been on the 2001 team in today’s environment- Dunleavy and Duhon.
The goal the staff has been pushing for from the jump is a solid mix. If they leave, if they get hurt whatever, you have to adjust. I feel like they are doing that and continue to evolve better than anyone, but that doesn’t guarantee you squat in a 1&D tournament that is so much about luck. Does anyone think Loyola Chicago was better than us this year? Should we follow their recruiting philosophy? Even Michigan who we consistently beat out for recruits- last major one we lost to them was Mitch McGary, who we wanted badly.
I’m fine questioning the staff over the development or lack thereof in some folks eyes of the bench. I’m fine questioning in game calls and strategies, substitution patterns etc. The thought that we consistently bring in 4-5 OADs every year and say screw the multi-year guys and their development to the point that they are deer in headlights when they do play or flat out quit and transfer, though is beyond a stretch. Just last year we started Sr, Jr, Soph, Fresh, RS Sr. Can’t say we didn’t develop those guys bc in years prior they all got plenty of min- all of which they earned mind you. Ironically the folks who are old school in thinking that we should have less of a reliance on OAD are the same ones that seem to be anti “earn playing time thru practice” which is as old school thinking as it gets.