Top recruiting classes and their results

[LetsGoDukies]

Okay guys I have a Tarhole friend who posted this on Facebook..

"Duke has had the top recruiting class for 3 straight years and all they have to show for it is an Elite 8.
What a massive waste of talent."

So this prompted me to do a little research to find out how the other top recruiting classes have fared compared to ours and I thought I would share what I found here. Basically, having a top recruiting class means absolutely nothing in terms of tournament success. Here are the top 5 recruiting classes for the past 10 years and how far each made it in the tourney.

2018
Duke - E8
Kentucky - S16
Arizona - 1st round
Missouri - 1st round
UCLA - Play in game

2017
Duke - 2nd round
Kentucky - E8
Michigan State - 2nd round
Florida State - 2nd round
NC State - failed to make tournament

2016
Kentucky - 2nd round
Duke - S16
Arizona - 1st round
Texas A&M - S16
Ohio State - failed to make tournament

2015
Duke - Champs
Kentucky - Final Four
Arizona - E8
UNLV - failed to make tournament
Louisville - E8

2014
Kentucky - Runner up
Kansas - 2nd round
Memphis - 2nd round
Indiana - failed to make tournament
Louisville - S16

2013
Kentucky - failed to make tournament
UCLA - 1st round
Arizona - S16
Baylor - failed to make tournament
North Carolina - 2nd round

2012
Kentucky - Champs
Duke - 1st round
Lousville - Final Four
Arizona - failed to make tournament
Texas - 1st round

2011
Kentucky - Final Four
Memphis - 1st round
Ohio State - S16
Syracuse - 2nd round
Florida - E8

2010
Kentucky - E8
North Carolina - failed to make tournament
Texas - 1st round
Villanova - 2nd round
UCLA - failed to make tournament

2009
Kentucky - failed to make tournament
Georgia - failed to make tournament
UCLA - 2nd round
Memphis - S16
Ohio State - 1st round

 

[jnastasi]

I think it’s just further proof that’s it’s fun to watch talented freshman but for the most part you don’t win with them come March. I really wish we would start moving away from so many OAD kids.

 

[DFerryFan]

Wait, NC State had a top 5 recruiting class?

 

[DFerryFan]

An interesting stat check (for someone who may be more experienced in this) would be to try to first decide when the OAD era begins. And statistically see if those teams fared better than traditional 4-year players in the tournament. Although, it may not be conclusive because the tournament is only a 6 game stretch, so luck plays a big part rather than stats. Kinda like flipping a coin – if you flipped a coin 1,000 times there may be a string of 6 heads in there.

 

[ajmitch81]

That's just a textbook example of how you can twist stats to support any argument. If you simply add one more season to that list the argument looks:

In the four years Duke has recruited predominantly one and done players they have three sweet sixteens, two elite eights, a final four and a national championship....

That looks pretty damn good.

 

[youknowit1]

Simple look at 2015 team 4 freshmen 4 upperclassmen. 8 men rotation who knew there roles. U need a bleed and some luck. This year suffered from inexperience.

 

[DukeRulesBasketball]

That's just a textbook example of how you can twist stats to support any argument. If you simply add one more season to that list the argument looks:

In the four years Duke has recruited predominantly one and done players they have three sweet sixteens, two elite eights, a final four and a national championship....

That looks pretty damn good.

Definitely nothing to sneeze at and we were just a roll away from going back to the final four this year...Damn it... there I go again

 

[LetsGoDukies]

That's just a textbook example of how you can twist stats to support any argument. If you simply add one more season to that list the argument looks:

In the four years Duke has recruited predominantly one and done players they have three sweet sixteens, two elite eights, a final four and a national championship....

That looks pretty damn good.

Exactly! I see so many posts where the Hole fans twist the stats to make us look bad and make them look like world beaters.

 

[ajmitch81]

Same method ESPN uses when showing how close the UNC vs Duke rivalry is. There's a reason they go back to 100 games.

Because apart from the four year Hansbrough window, Duke has thoroughly dominated the rivalry at a 2 to 1 clip since 1998, and that is even including Hansbrough's teams, it's even worse if you remove those years.

That's a fact.

 

[The Optimist]

I think expecting 3 rings out of 3 top-recruitment class is insane. We did it in 2015 and can do it again in 2019. I'll take that.

 

[HuffyJB]

There isn't any "right" way to do things. Duke has won as much or more than literally any other team in the 64-team tournament era, and they have done it a number of different ways. I think you do what K does - try to consistently acquire the best talent you can, as long as they fit your profile and program.

 

[Quavarius]

From 2005-2009, Duke had 0 OAD's and didn't get past the Sweet 16.

 

[younggamechanger]

I think preseason rankings are more indicative, not just the recruiting classes. I think it's a better classification of "underachieving" but that term should also include regular season results, not just the NCAA tournament. Listed below is the preseason top 5 rankings and results. I bolded the most "underachieving" top 5 team according to tourney results:

2018:
Duke - Elite 8
MSU - 2nd round
Arizona - 1st round
Kansas - Final Four (TBD result)
Kentucky - 2nd round

2017:
Duke - 2nd round
Kentucky - Elite 8
Kansas - Elite 8
Nova - 2nd round
Oregon - Final Four

2016:
UNC - Runner up
Kentucky - 2nd round
Maryland - Sweet 16
Kansas - Elite 8
Duke - Sweet 16

2015:
Kentucky - Final Four
Arizona - Elite 8
Wisconsin - Runner up
Duke - Champs
Kansas - Sweet 16

2014:
Kentucky - Runner up
Michigan State - Elite 8
Louisville - Sweet 16
Duke - 1st round
Kansas - Sweet 16

2013:
Indiana - Sweet 16
Louisville - Champs
Kentucky - NIT
Ohio State - Elite 8
Michigan - Runner up

2012:
UNC - Elite 8
Kentucky - Champs
Ohio State - Final Four
Uconn - 2nd round
Syracuse - Elite 8


Results are Duke and UK tied for most underachieving teams with the talent on their rosters since 2012 (last year with preseason top 25 i could find on ESPN). Most of the teams listed in the top 5 have the most talent and some of the best recruiting classes.

 

[dukiejay]

Over 20% of those teams didn't even make the tournament. Wow.

 

[DiehardDukeFan4Life]

One thing that sticks out is that Kentucky has missed the tournament twice (one of those times was the season after they won the title) and UNC has missed the tournament once (the season after they won the title) but Duke hasn’t missed the tournament during that time frame. In fact, if we hadn’t missed the tournament in 1995 when Coach K missed most of the season after surgery then Duke would have 35 consecutive NCAAT appearances starting in 1984 which would be 6 more than Ksnsas’ current streak of 29 consecutive NCAAT appearances.

 

[younggamechanger]

He

Over 20% of those teams didn't even make the tournament. Wow.

Not many of those are surprises though. Also, the 247 rankings are have a technical error. In 2008, it lists UGA as the #2 class but their average recruit was a 79, which would have them as a sub top 30 class.

I don't think any expected NCSU to make it last year.

OSU in 2016 had sub top 50 recruits and Jaquan Lyle was their highest rated at #40. They weren't preseason top 25 and lost D Russell and Shannon Scott the year before.

IU in 2014 wasn't even ranked preseason and only recruits were Yogi and Troy Williams, and just came off losing 4/5 starters.

UK was a surprise in 2013 - Noel getting hurt sealed their fate, I believe they wouldve snuck in.

Baylor 2013 - Isaiah Austin had a tough transition to college. I believe they should've made the tourney still. That was a surprise but only him and Gathers were top 35.

Arizona 2012 - Lost 4 starters, it was the year with Derrick Williams going HAM in sweet 16 vs duke. Nick Johnson and Josiah Turner - Turner was a complete bust. Mildly surprising they missed tourney.

UNC 2010 - Lost 4/5 starters after they won the national championship. Recruiting class so overhyped lol. Henson was so raw. The Wear twins blew. McDonald and Strickland were solid. I honestly don't believe not making tourney was all that surprising.

UCLA 2010 - Top Recruit was #31 Tyler Honeycutt. 3 other recruits varying from #60-85. Pretty average class honestly. Lost Holiday and Collison the year before. Not preseason top 25. Glitch with 247. Not a top 35 class.

UK 2009 - DeAndre Liggins #34 and Darius Miller #82 were their only two top 250 recruits lol. Gillespie average coach at best. Not preseason top 25. Same glitch as with UGA... Not even a top 25 class.

UGA 2009 - Not even a top 5 class... 247 had a technical error with them as #2 class. No surprise they didn't make tourney with a sub top 30 class.

 

[LouisiAaron]

The most talented team rarely wins. UNLV and Phi Slama Jama didn’t win titles when we all know they easily the most talented teams. That’s not even mentioning 99 Duke squad

 

[younggamechanger]

One thing that sticks out is that Kentucky has missed the tournament twice (one of those times was the season after they won the title) and UNC has missed the tournament once (the season after they won the title) but Duke hasn’t missed the tournament during that time frame. In fact, if we hadn’t missed the tournament in 1995 when Coach K missed most of the season after surgery then Duke would have 35 consecutive NCAAT appearances starting in 1984 which would be 6 more than Ksnsas’ current streak of 29 consecutive NCAAT appearances.

Very impressive indeed. I don't

The most talented team rarely wins. UNLV and Phi Slama Jama didn’t win titles when we all know they easily the most talented teams. That’s not even mentioning 99 Duke squad

Idk about "rarely" wins but sometimes the most talented team does not win it, such as Duke this year

 

[christophero]

A four year run of National Championship, Sweet 16, Second Round and Elite 8. The list of programs that can top that 4 year run is very small.

 

[lurkeraspect84]

2009
Kentucky - failed to make tournament
Georgia - failed to make tournament
UCLA - 2nd round
Memphis - S16
Ohio State - 1st round

Kentucky missed the tournament with Gillispie. He didn't have close to top recruiting class.

 

[LetsGoDukies]

Kentucky missed the tournament with Gillispie. He didn't have close to top recruiting class.

The 2009 tourney would have been the 2008 recruiting class.. Here are the team rankings from 247..
https://247sports.com/Season/2008-Basketball/CompositeTeamRankings

 

[younggamechanger]

The 2009 tourney would have been the 2008 recruiting class.. Here are the team rankings from 247..
https://247sports.com/Season/2008-Basketball/CompositeTeamRankings

That's flawed though as my I said above. Georgia in that has the #2 error - it is a tech malfunction. They had an average rating of 79, which wouldve put them as not even a top 35 recruiting class.

It also shows UK as having an average rating of 99.96 which is near impossible, especially considering their recruits were rated as: 98.5, 96.5, 85.5, 85.5, and 85.5. Liggins as #34 and Darius Miller at #82 were their only top 250 recruits - zero chance that is the #1 recruiting class in the country lol

 

[LetsGoDukies]

That's flawed though as my I said above. Georgia in that has the #2 error - it is a tech malfunction. They had an average rating of 79, which wouldve put them as not even a top 35 recruiting class.

It also shows UK as having an average rating of 99.96 which is near impossible, especially considering their recruits were rated as: 98.5, 96.5, 85.5, 85.5, and 85.5. Liggins as #34 and Darius Miller at #82 were their only top 250 recruits - zero chance that is the #1 recruiting class in the country lol

Oh I gotcha.. Should have read your previous post. Yeah definitely looks like an error to me.. thanks!