Chronicle as usual pulls no punches-

[hart2chesson]

No question we face a tough road, but Vegas is giving us pretty good odds and we have as much talent as any team in the country. See how the Chronicle grades Duke if they fail to make it to the FF, and respond with your own take....OFC

http://www.dukechronicle.com/articl...e-mens-basketball-its-time-for-the-final-exam

 

[PixelDevil]

Very well written and I agree whole heartedly. I'll be completely honest, don't hate me, I don't think this team makes the final four. Every year I aways pick Duke to win it all, but maybe as I get older I'm starting to think more objectively. We certainly have the talent to win it all, and if our shots fall, we have a good chance to. But the 3 ball is so inconsistent, that it won't allow us to get there. So I'm not gonna put myself through the ringer, just gonna enjoy each game and keep my expectations low.

 

[Mac9192]

Very interesting take. After last season, I didn't think there would be a season as frustrating, given the talent on hand. I stand corrected.
Our last few Duke teams moved the ball real well, but had no inside presence. This team has really good big men, but to me this is the worst Duke team in terms of ball movement I've seen in a long time. Duke set the benchmark in that department, and that is one reason the Holes took 2 of 3 from us. Man that hurts to admit.
I think we went from one extreme to the other. Turnovers aren't helping either.
It will feel like a major letdown if we don't make a strong run, because we had a solid team in place last summer, and became more dangerous when we landed Bagley.

 

[LouisiAaron]

I believe the squad will be ok. Lack of effort won’t be the reason we lose at this point. It’ll come down to can we make shots and stops. One thing this zone will do is prevent an opposing player from hitting their career high. In the past we’ve had a major problem with that. Also we need to get back to whatever we were doing on offense before Bagley got hurt

 

[Nycdoc01]

I agree. An even greater issue is the inconsistent PG play IMO. The combo of this and the inconsistent outside shooting will prove to be our downfall.

Very well written and I agree whole heartedly. I'll be completely honest, don't hate me, I don't think this team makes the final four. Every year I aways pick Duke to win it all, but maybe as I get older I'm starting to think more objectively. We certainly have the talent to win it all, and if our shots fall, we have a good chance to. But the 3 ball is so inconsistent, that it won't allow us to get there. So I'm not gonna put myself through the ringer, just gonna enjoy each game and keep my expectations low.

 

[DukeDenver]

I liked the article. This is an Econ. major from Philly, so you know you're getting it straight, no filter. I like his take. We have more talent than any team, but we have only played like a cohesive unit for short stretches. If we falter, it's most likely because we're playing too much one on one offense or not switching well on D. I don't think it's an effort thing with us, it's more efficiency. Against UNC and in our losses, we took mostly high difficulty shots and gave up too many easy buckets. If we rotate on D and create advantages on O and look for open players, we are damn near unbeatable. I hope we're watching tape of how we played while Bagley was out and try and replicate that efficiency. Go Duke! Let's win this thang!

 

[DukeDenver]

I agree. An even greater issue is the inconsistent PG play IMO. The combo of this and the inconsistent outside shooting will prove to be our downfall.

-apologies for incoming snark missile-
Why even watch?

 

[LouisiAaron]

I liked the article. This is an Econ. major from Philly, so you know you're getting it straight, no filter. I like his take. We have more talent than any team, but we have only played like a cohesive unit for short stretches. If we falter, it's most likely because we're playing too much one on one offense or not switching well on D. I don't think it's an effort thing with us, it's more efficiency. Against UNC and in our losses, we took mostly high difficulty shots and gave up too many easy buckets. If we rotate on D and create advantages on O and look for open players, we are damn near unbeatable. I hope we're watching tape of how we played while Bagley was out and try and replicate that efficiency. Go Duke! Let's win this thang!

We were less efficient offensively when Bagley went out. Grayson may have scored more but as far as efficiency we dropped when Bagley went out. We need to get back to the offense we had before Bagley went out.

 

[dukiejay]

Good article.

My only real disagreement would be that this team is given an ‘F’ if they don’t make the final four. Getting to the final four isn’t easy. It wasn’t easy when Duke went seven of nine years from ‘86 to ‘94, and it’s probably harder today than it was then.

 

[Dahntay#1]

Very well written and I agree whole heartedly. I'll be completely honest, don't hate me, I don't think this team makes the final four. Every year I aways pick Duke to win it all, but maybe as I get older I'm starting to think more objectively. We certainly have the talent to win it all, and if our shots fall, we have a good chance to. But the 3 ball is so inconsistent, that it won't allow us to get there. So I'm not gonna put myself through the ringer, just gonna enjoy each game and keep my expectations low.

This is what I did many years ago. Once you do so, you enjoy the games much better. As I have said before, I have concluded that K has probably won his last title. I hope he can win one more but I'm not holding my breath for it.

 

[DukeDenver]

We were less efficient offensively when Bagley went out. Grayson may have scored more but as far as efficiency we dropped when Bagley went out. We need to get back to the offense we had before Bagley went out.

I normally don't respond to you, but couldn't resist this time.

I just did the math on this, and you're wrong. The first number in each row is our pts scored per 100 possessions, the second numbers pts against per 100 possessions. Averages before, during and after Bagley went out are in bold. We were slightly more efficient or equally efficient on offense with Bagley out. Our defensive efficiency was best when he was out too. That said, our defense has remained pretty good since Bagley has been reinserted, so I chalk that up to switching to all zone, which I believe happened around the time Bagley went out.


Bagley In (PTS scored per 100 possessions = 111.3 average; PTS given up per 100 possessions = 107.0 average)
UVA 92.6 95.6
ND 127.5 95.7
SJU 108.5 114.1
UNC 116.4 122.4

Bagley Out (PTS scored per 100 possessions = 113.2 average; PTS given up per 100 possessions = 87.5 average)
GT 112.7 97.2
VT 127.6 89.7
Clem 98.5 85.1
UL 113.9 77.8

Bagley Back (PTS scored per 100 possessions = 101.0 average; PTS given up per 100 possessions = 89.9 average)
Cuse 92.3 67.7
VT 94.0 95.5
UNC 101.4 87.7
ND 123.9 98.6
UNC 93.2 100.0

 

[Mac9192]

I normally don't respond to you, but couldn't resist this time.

I just did the math on this, and you're wrong. The first number in each row is our pts scored per 100 possessions, the second numbers pts against per 100 possessions. Averages before, during and after Bagley went out are in bold. We were slightly more efficient or equally efficient on offense with Bagley out. Our defensive efficiency was best when he was out too. That said, our defense has remained pretty good since Bagley has been reinserted, so I chalk that up to switching to all zone, which I believe happened around the time Bagley went out.


Bagley In (PTS scored per 100 possessions = 111.3 average; PTS given up per 100 possessions = 107.0 average)
UVA 92.6 95.6
ND 127.5 95.7
SJU 108.5 114.1
UNC 116.4 122.4

Bagley Out (PTS scored per 100 possessions = 113.2 average; PTS given up per 100 possessions = 87.5 average)
GT 112.7 97.2
VT 127.6 89.7
Clem 98.5 85.1
UL 113.9 77.8

Bagley Back (PTS scored per 100 possessions = 101.0 average; PTS given up per 100 possessions = 89.9 average)
Cuse 92.3 67.7
VT 94.0 95.5
UNC 101.4 87.7
ND 123.9 98.6
UNC 93.2 100.0

Great post Denver. I believe it was our ball movement while he was out, and lack of, after he came back. Nothing against him, but those figures don't lie. While he was out, the shots were easier to distribute around.
I do understand why Dachamp thinks that it was better. Earlier in the year, we were scoring mid to high 80's.

 

[SwatX1]

I think we are better with Bagley, but not with Bagley and Carter both clogging the lane up. I made this statement before. I would really like to see how our offense would flow if we rotated those two in and out about every 5 or 6 minutes, or, get Carter a little farther out away from the lane. I think that would improve our penetration ability and ball movement, but, I have not coached a single national championship game!!

 

[LouisiAaron]

I normally don't respond to you, but couldn't resist this time.

I just did the math on this, and you're wrong. The first number in each row is our pts scored per 100 possessions, the second numbers pts against per 100 possessions. Averages before, during and after Bagley went out are in bold. We were slightly more efficient or equally efficient on offense with Bagley out. Our defensive efficiency was best when he was out too. That said, our defense has remained pretty good since Bagley has been reinserted, so I chalk that up to switching to all zone, which I believe happened around the time Bagley went out.


Bagley In (PTS scored per 100 possessions = 111.3 average; PTS given up per 100 possessions = 107.0 average)
UVA 92.6 95.6
ND 127.5 95.7
SJU 108.5 114.1
UNC 116.4 122.4

Bagley Out (PTS scored per 100 possessions = 113.2 average; PTS given up per 100 possessions = 87.5 average)
GT 112.7 97.2
VT 127.6 89.7
Clem 98.5 85.1
UL 113.9 77.8

Bagley Back (PTS scored per 100 possessions = 101.0 average; PTS given up per 100 possessions = 89.9 average)
Cuse 92.3 67.7
VT 94.0 95.5
UNC 101.4 87.7
ND 123.9 98.6
UNC 93.2 100.0

Later on when I can actually sit down and provide my stats, I’ll debunk this. One thing I know definitely is that we were ranked 2nd offensively with a 124.2 ranking when he left. Now we’re 3rd with a rating of 122.6. Something isn’t adding up there.

 

[pisgah101]

Great article. We get an F if we don't make the elite eight

 

[500HP_Devil]

Opinion Disclaimer: Anything can happen in the dance and NOTHING is guaranteed.

That being said I will always side with Vegas. We may not make the FF but if they ran the tourney a zillion I think we make it more than anyone other than 1-2 teams.

All teams have flaws - we just see ours the most often

 

[SwatX1]

Opinion Disclaimer: Anything can happen in the dance and NOTHING is guaranteed.

That being said I will always side with Vegas. We may not make the FF but if they ran the tourney a zillion I think we make it more than anyone other than 1-2 teams.

All teams have flaws - we just see ours the most often

I agree 100%. Vegas doesn't make billions by NOT knowing what they are doing. Most of the time, when there is an upset, it it were a best of 3 or best of 5, the better team would advance, but in a win or go home scenario, nothing is guaranteed. I do believe, however, that like most years, a one or two seed wins the tournament

 

[denverexpat]

all I would say to the author of the article is ditto. He voices the same opinons I hold. The learning part is one i always cringe with....yes, learn to be a team but learning the basics? no so much. You should know how to box out, make a FT and play defense in a zone or man to man, throw a post entry pass. Basics they have been taught and practiced at a high level since they were young. Those are excuses. Learning to play together is one thing but with 7 months under their belt they should be a lot further along on that scale too.
Can they put together 6 games? Maybe...but we havent seen it yet.

 

[Alaskan_Assassin_21]

Good article.

My only real disagreement would be that this team is given an ‘F’ if they don’t make the final four. Getting to the final four isn’t easy. It wasn’t easy when Duke went seven of nine years from ‘86 to ‘94, and it’s probably harder today than it was then.

To me he made a valid point in that because this team failed to Win the regular season or tournament championship - it is now in a "do or fail" position. For example showing up to the Final Exam with a current grade of 'D'. Only an 'A' will result in passing

The only exception to me would be if Virginia also managed to win the NCAAT. Then we should cut 4 starting freshman some slack and say: yah they didn't win any banners because even their best might not have been good enough against Virginia in 2017/18

 

[LouisiAaron]

I normally don't respond to you, but couldn't resist this time.

I just did the math on this, and you're wrong. The first number in each row is our pts scored per 100 possessions, the second numbers pts against per 100 possessions. Averages before, during and after Bagley went out are in bold. We were slightly more efficient or equally efficient on offense with Bagley out. Our defensive efficiency was best when he was out too. That said, our defense has remained pretty good since Bagley has been reinserted, so I chalk that up to switching to all zone, which I believe happened around the time Bagley went out.


Bagley In (PTS scored per 100 possessions = 111.3 average; PTS given up per 100 possessions = 107.0 average)
UVA 92.6 95.6
ND 127.5 95.7
SJU 108.5 114.1
UNC 116.4 122.4

Bagley Out (PTS scored per 100 possessions = 113.2 average; PTS given up per 100 possessions = 87.5 average)
GT 112.7 97.2
VT 127.6 89.7
Clem 98.5 85.1
UL 113.9 77.8

Bagley Back (PTS scored per 100 possessions = 101.0 average; PTS given up per 100 possessions = 89.9 average)
Cuse 92.3 67.7
VT 94.0 95.5
UNC 101.4 87.7
ND 123.9 98.6
UNC 93.2 100.0

Nice post but here's my rebuttal. I've crunched numbers myself and I can prove that we were a better offense before Bagley got hurt. These numbers are brought to you by
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/stat/offensive-efficiency

PRE-BAGLEY INJURY
Off Eff - FG% - EFG% - OR%
1.193 - 50.7 - 57.3 - 39.3

BAGLEY OUT
Game - Off Eff - FG (%) - EFG (%) - OR%
Ga Tech - 1.109 - 44.1 - 57.0 - 37.1
Va Tech - 1.269 - 50.0 - 64.4 - 42.3
Clemson - 0.985 - 38.8 - 44.9 - 25.8
Louisville - 1.132 - 48.3 - 55.8 - 33.3
Total - 1.123 - 45.3 - 55.5 - 34.6

What this table shows you is that before Bagley got injured we were literally better in each one of these categories. Everything was lesser than before he sat out. Since we have changed up the offense the efficiency rating keeps getting lower. Only person that really benefited from Bagley being out was Grayson (and Bolden because he got more PT). Everyone else numbers stayed pretty much the same. Now where did you get your numbers from? These numbers I'm giving you can all be found at that website I copied above.

 

[ticket2ride04]

I think we are better with Bagley, but not with Bagley and Carter both clogging the lane up. I made this statement before. I would really like to see how our offense would flow if we rotated those two in and out about every 5 or 6 minutes, or, get Carter a little farther out away from the lane. I think that would improve our penetration ability and ball movement, but, I have not coached a single national championship game!!

This is an interesting point you make. I don’t watch you guys that much, but the problem is reminiscent of what Roy tries to do. Two traditional bigs who tend to clog the lane and prohibit dribble penetration which tends to funk up the offense. The flip side is offensive rebounding gets way better with guys like Carter and Bags in at the same time.

 

[LouisiAaron]

This is an interesting point you make. I don’t watch you guys that much, but the problem is reminiscent of what Roy tries to do. Two traditional bigs who tend to clog the lane and prohibit dribble penetration which tends to funk up the offense. The flip side is offensive rebounding gets way better with guys like Carter and Bags in at the same time.

Offensive rebounding is what make our offense better. Those two guys usually convert on those offensive rebounds

 

[HeLooks2MuchLikeDave]

I think we are better with Bagley, but not with Bagley and Carter both clogging the lane up. I made this statement before. I would really like to see how our offense would flow if we rotated those two in and out about every 5 or 6 minutes, or, get Carter a little farther out away from the lane. I think that would improve our penetration ability and ball movement, but, I have not coached a single national championship game!!

As long as its not Bagley, Carter, AND DeLaurier. The bad spacing from that lineup always seems to get us in a hole...

 

[sheyduke]

I’ll give them an “F” if they don’t make it out of the first game, D if they don’t win the second a C if they don’t win in the sweet 16 , a B if they don’t win in the elite 8, an A if they make it to the final four and an A+ if they make it to the championship game. I think all grades are fair now roll the ball out and play.

Go Duke.