State of the bubble

[DawgatAuburn]

I think the bubble is really weak this year. The question I keep asking myself is this. If a team is projected in the tournament now loses like we did, as did Pitt, Nevada, USC, and Rutgers, and you want to knock them out, then who do you put in their place??

North Carolina?
Arizona State?
Michigan?
Oklahoma State?
All of those except OSU lost this weekend too.

Makes me think two things are coming up.

One, conference tournaments are going to be important for bubble teams but even an early loss won’t kill you as long as your competition loses too. And also you don’t take a bad quad 3 or 4 loss.

Two, the real battle is to be in the main draw and not get sent to Dayton. I’d take Dayton over the NIT 100 times out of 100, but I’d love to sneak into the main draw as one of the last teams with a bye.

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

I will take our chances in Dayton if need be, there’s not another 10 or 11 seed type team that I don’t think we can beat. Plus there are several instances of teams that started in Dayton and were still able to make runs in the tournament. I think VCU in 2011 and UCLA in 2021 both started in Dayton and ended up in the Final Four.

There’s a weird stigma about being sent to Dayton but I don’t mind at all, definitely better than getting left out. Besides, not like we have much room to be picky given how infrequently we’ve been to the NCAAT in the last 12-15 years.

 

[klong-dog]

Agreed. Plus it's prime time, exposure, ect... and you get a game under your belt, assuming you can come away with a win.

 

[Drebin]

I think the bubble is really weak this year. The question I keep asking myself is this. If a team is projected in the tournament now loses like we did, as did Pitt, Nevada, USC, and Rutgers, and you want to knock them out, then who do you put in their place??

North Carolina?
Arizona State?
Michigan?
Oklahoma State?
All of those except OSU lost this weekend too.

Makes me think two things are coming up.

One, conference tournaments are going to be important for bubble teams but even an early loss won’t kill you as long as your competition loses too. And also you don’t take a bad quad 3 or 4 loss.

Two, the real battle is to be in the main draw and not get sent to Dayton. I’d take Dayton over the NIT 100 times out of 100, but I’d love to sneak into the main draw as one of the last teams with a bye.

You make some good points here. The bubble is really weak.

I'll stand by my analysis from this time last week: we could afford a loss to Vandy and would probably still get in....but we'll have to sweat it.

I do think we got a somewhat favorable draw to make a little run in the SEC tourney, though. Getting Florida is good....an opportunity to right that wrong, and then I think we match up pretty well with Bama, but even losing to them would improve our NET.

 

[Dawgg]

I think the bubble is really weak this year. The question I keep asking myself is this. If a team is projected in the tournament now loses like we did, as did Pitt, Nevada, USC, and Rutgers, and you want to knock them out, then who do you put in their place??

North Carolina?
Arizona State?
Michigan?
Oklahoma State?
All of those except OSU lost this weekend too.

Makes me think two things are coming up.

One, conference tournaments are going to be important for bubble teams but even an early loss won’t kill you as long as your competition loses too. And also you don’t take a bad quad 3 or 4 loss.

Two, the real battle is to be in the main draw and not get sent to Dayton. I’d take Dayton over the NIT 100 times out of 100, but I’d love to sneak into the main draw as one of the last teams with a bye.

I think you're right. I also struggle to remember when there was an NCAA field this wide open. There's no one 'overdog' this year. Even the pool of 'overdogs' (which I would consider Houston, Alabama, Kansas, UCLA, and maybe Purdue) have been extremely vulnerable at times. I think this is a year where you could see a lot of 1-3 seeds dropping in the first 2 rounds and some double digit seeds making deep runs.

 

[615dawg]

West Coast Conference semifinals are tonight. Really need Gonzaga and St. Mary's to win their games and play for the title tomorrow.

I think Florida Atlantic will get a bid, so cheering for them in Conference USA.

I just don't see any other mid-major conferences to worry about. Can a team like UNC win the ACC Tournament and steal a bid? Sure, but that's more difficult than a team like BYU winning a neutral site game against St. Mary;s and getting a bid.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

You make some good points here. The bubble is really weak.

I'll stand by my analysis from this time last week: we could afford a loss to Vandy and would probably still get in....but we'll have to sweat it.

I do think we got a somewhat favorable draw to make a little run in the SEC tourney, though. Getting Florida is good....an opportunity to right that wrong, and then I think we match up pretty well with Bama, but even losing to them would improve our NET.

I agree that we could make a run in the tournament. If Jan's has their head in the right place, and they believe that they can put the ball in the basket, we could surprise some folks next week. It's going to be interesting to see how they perform on a neutral port, especially against Alabama IF we get by Florida. I don't think the Gators will do well away from home. If my math is correct, they've only won three games on the road this year.

 

[FlotownDawg]

Since beating Tennessee in early February, Florida has gone 3-6. Those three wins were against three of the worst teams in the league (Ole Miss, Georgia, LSU). If we can’t beat this Florida team without Castleton, we really don’t deserve to be in the NCAA Tournament.

 

[RopeDawg]

Lunardi still has us as last 4 in as of his update today

 

[jethreauxdawg]

So the selection committee will be choosing between us and UNC? I’m sure that will go our way**

 

[klong-dog]

I agree that we could make a run in the tournament. If Jan's has their head in the right place, and they believe that they can put the ball in the basket, we could surprise some folks next week. It's going to be interesting to see how they perform on a neutral port, especially against Alabama IF we get by Florida. I don't think the Gators will do well away from home. If my math is correct, they've only won three games on the road this year.

you know they beat us at the Hump?

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

you know they beat us at the Hump?

I really think we're playing a different defensive game presently. I could be wrong, but I don't think we're playing anything like we did back then.

 

[mstateglfr]

you know they beat us at the Hump?

That was with Castleton. Thats the point another poster was making- perhaps that is the difference between then and this week's game.

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

West Coast Conference semifinals are tonight. Really need Gonzaga and St. Mary's to win their games and play for the title tomorrow.

I think Florida Atlantic will get a bid, so cheering for them in Conference USA.

I just don't see any other mid-major conferences to worry about. Can a team like UNC win the ACC Tournament and steal a bid? Sure, but that's more difficult than a team like BYU winning a neutral site game against St. Mary;s and getting a bid.

Any worries about Oral Roberts if they don’t win the Summit tourney? They’re 24-4 with a NET of 42. Weak conference but they went undefeated in it, all four losses are Q1. They haven’t beaten anybody with a pulse, though.

Don’t think they’d get in but think I’ll root for them to win their tourney just to be safe.

 

[DawgatAuburn]

West Coast Conference semifinals are tonight. Really need Gonzaga and St. Mary's to win their games and play for the title tomorrow.

I think Florida Atlantic will get a bid, so cheering for them in Conference USA.

I just don't see any other mid-major conferences to worry about. Can a team like UNC win the ACC Tournament and steal a bid? Sure, but that's more difficult than a team like BYU winning a neutral site game against St. Mary;s and getting a bid.

The only two that gives me pause are Oral Roberts and Charleston.

ORU is somehow 42 in the NET with an 0-4 record in Q1 and 1-0 in Q2. But 5-0/18-0 in 3 and 4. I think I heard they were the only team to finish conference play undefeated. Not that that counts for anything. They are in the Summit semifinals tonight against St Thomas-Minnesota who I literally never heard of until this very second. If they win that one, it's the winner of ND State/SD State. Tournament is in South Dakota, so I guess I'm for North Dakota State so ORU doesn't have to play a de facto road game in the finals!

Charleston is 52 with similar quad records to ORU (0-1 / 3-0 / 8-2 / 17-0). Top four seeds are in the semis of the CAA tonight. So Charleston plays Towson tonight and with a win they would play winner of Hofstra/UNC-Wilmington.

I could see the NCAA throwing a bone to one or both of them if they lose in their finals.

 

[maroonmania]

Seriously, after already losing to Florida on our home court, if we lose to them again on a neutral court do we really deserve to be in? We have struggled lately with home loss to KY, near road loss to Ole Miss, and not sealing the deal at Missouri. TA&M is the only recent game where we looked like an NCAA tournament team. We won but we didn't look too good against SC either.

 

[curseddawgs]

Seriously, after already losing to Florida on our home court, if we lose to them again on a neutral court do we really deserve to be in? We have struggled lately with home loss to KY, near road loss to Ole Miss, and not sealing the deal at Missouri. TA&M is the only recent game where we looked like an NCAA tournament team. We won but we didn't look too good against SC either.

You do realize Kentucky and Missouri are NCAA locks right? We could have won both of those games but let's not pretend that losing by a combined 5 points in those makes us a bad team

 

[mstateglfr]

Seriously, after already losing to Florida on our home court, if we lose to them again on a neutral court do we really deserve to be in? We have struggled lately with home loss to KY, near road loss to Ole Miss, and not sealing the deal at Missouri. TA&M is the only recent game where we looked like an NCAA tournament team. We won but we didn't look too good against SC either.

I sure thought we looked like an NCAAT team against KY. And at Mizzou too.
Its possible for a team to look like an NCAAT team and lose to other NCAAT level teams.

 

[Dawgg]

Seriously, after already losing to Florida on our home court, if we lose to them again on a neutral court do we really deserve to be in? We have struggled lately with home loss to KY, near road loss to Ole Miss, and not sealing the deal at Missouri. TA&M is the only recent game where we looked like an NCAA tournament team. We won but we didn't look too good against SC either.

I feel like sometimes posts on this board read like they're written by abuse victims. It's like you've been told you're a piece of shiт for so long that you've started believing it.

I'm not advocating for a bunch of sunshine-pumping, but damn man. We have a legitimate NCAA Tournament resume with multiple wins over ranked teams, including the current #6.

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

If we miss the tourney it will be because of the stretch in January where we just weren’t playing well. We have looked like a Top 25 team since the close loss in Tuscaloosa. Have really done a great job of climbing out of the hole we dug early in SEC play, just have to do a tiny bit more climbing and we are there.

 

[patdog]

Any worries about Oral Roberts if they don’t win the Summit tourney? They’re 24-4 with a NET of 42. Weak conference but they went undefeated in it, all four losses are Q1. They haven’t beaten anybody with a pulse, though.

Don’t think they’d get in but think I’ll root for them to win their tourney just to be safe.

If they lose their conference tournament, that's going to be either a Q3 or Q4 loss, so probably drop them to about 50 or so. I think they have to win their tournament.

 

[maroonmania]

You do realize Kentucky and Missouri are NCAA locks right? We could have won both of those games but let's not pretend that losing by a combined 5 points in those makes us a bad team

My primary point was about the fact that if we don't take care of Florida Thursday then we shouldn't feel shafted if we get left out. You can always excuse road losses to pretty good teams but losing at home to KY and FL have ended up being hard to overcome when combined with a road loss to a bad GA team.

 

[maroonmania]

I feel like sometimes posts on this board read like they're written by abuse victims. It's like you've been told you're a piece of shiт for so long that you've started believing it.

I'm not advocating for a bunch of sunshine-pumping, but damn man. We have a legitimate NCAA Tournament resume with multiple wins over ranked teams, including the current #6.

Abuse victim? Heck I think Jans is a magician to have this team in the NCAA tourney conversation at allwith some of the worst 3 point shooting in the country. College basketball is a guard driven game and we suck at perimeter shooting. We get that fixed next year and we should be difficult to contend with for anyone.

 

[615dawg]

We are 15 points away from being 13-5 in the SEC. We had our chances to be as high as a 5 seed. But this is where we are. Beating Florida and couple other bubble teams losing and we might avoid the play in game. It would take 3-4 bid stealers. I don't see it this year.

Charleston is a no. Oral Roberts has an outside shot.

 

[QuaoarsKing]

Add Liberty to the list if possible bid stealers. NET of 44 (better than us) but lost the ASun Tournament.

 

[DoggieDaddy13]

Usually you'd hate to wind up in the N.I.T. again.
We'd be damn fortunate to win even a play in game in the NCAA. We're too inconsistent at this point.
We probably could make a nice run in the N.I.T.

Either way. It is what it is.

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

Add Liberty to the list if possible bid stealers. NET of 44 (better than us) but lost the ASun Tournament.

Nah, not seeing it with them. Did not win their league regular season or tournament outright, best win is Bradley. They’ll be in the NIT.

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

Usually you'd hate to wind up in the N.I.T. again.
We'd be damn fortunate to win even a play in game in the NCAA. We're too inconsistent at this point.
We probably could make a nice run in the N.I.T.

Either way. It is what it is.

One and done in the NCAAT > winning the NIT. All day every day.

 

[Dawgg]

One and done in the NCAAT > winning the NIT. All day every day.

And it beats the ever loving hell out of losing the NIT.

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

Lunardi has us in the same spot as we were pre-Vandy as of tonight.

 

[615dawg]

Lunardi has us in the same spot as we were pre-Vandy as of tonight.

Its the first time he's had Wisconsin out. Lunardi doesn't control the committee, but he gets information.

From this morning's update with ZERO results, he's moved Wisconsin out of the tournament for the first time all season and moved Vanderbilt from next four out. That tells me the committee says that Wisconsin has work to do and Vandy isn't really being considered without a big run.

Also has Rutgers out and Penn State in from this am

 

[TilloDawg II]

BYU was down 26 early 2nd half to St Mary's....they've cut it to 7

 

[DawgatAuburn]

Oral Roberts and Charleston both got pushed hard but won. Would love to see both of them cut down their nets tomorrow. With St. Mary's knocking out BYU, it's up to Gonzaga to hold their lead (late first half) and prevent a bid stealer from even making the WCC final.

 

[msudawg1200]

Gonzaga wins. No bid stealer from the WCC. Need Oral Roberts to beat NDSU tonight, as well as Charleston to beat UNCW.

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

I don’t think Oral Roberts or Charleston get in without winning their tourney, but it wouldn’t hurt for them to both win.

 

[FlotownDawg]

I’ve noticed from previous years that by this time of the year, the last four in, first four out usually remains pretty static. If Lunardi is accurate, we seem to be fairly securely in. A win over Florida would surely lock it up.

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

I’ve noticed from previous years that by this time of the year, the last four in, first four out usually remains pretty static. If Lunardi is accurate, we seem to be fairly securely in. A win over Florida would surely lock it up.

Unless conference tourneys just go totally sideways then I tend to think you are right. Gonzaga and St. Mary’s taking care of business last night is a good start. I think the biggest possibility for chaos is from bubble teams in good leagues (Michigan, Texas Tech, Villanova, etc.) going on runs and winning their tournaments. Other than C-USA and maybe the AAC if Houston or Memphis doesn’t win that tournament, I’m not seeing much stolen bid potential from the mid major leagues.

 

[mstateglfr]

Gonzaga v St Mary's has become as good a rivalry as there is in college basketball over the last 15 years.
The history between the two teams in that time has really created an awesome atmosphere each time they meet, and the games often determine who wins the conference.

Worth watching tonight, if you like college basketball in general.

 

[patdog]

Unless conference tourneys just go totally sideways then I tend to think you are right. Gonzaga and St. Mary’s taking care of business last night is a good start. I think the biggest possibility for chaos is from bubble teams in good leagues (Michigan, Texas Tech, Villanova, etc.) going on runs and winning their tournaments. Other than C-USA and maybe the AAC if Houston or Memphis doesn’t win that tournament, I’m not seeing much stolen bid potential from the mid major leagues.

It's awfully hard for a bubble team in a power conference to win their conference tournament because they almost always have to play an extra game compared to the top 4 seeds who get byes.

 

[Ranchdawg]

The Florida game is a "play in game". Lose and we are NIT bound playing for 69th place.