Severe Wednesday / Significant severe Thursday

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

SPC has upgraded NW MS to a slight risk for severe weather Wednesday for a conditional low end event and maintaining a significant severe weather event possible late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. As I was expecting, they did retract the threat back slightly westward for Thursday as it looks like the timing of the storm has slowed slightly. By the time the storms reach the golden triangle area the system will be weakening as the best dynamics start to pull away from the region. However, parts of western and central MS are still fully under the gun and the SPC is saying an upgrade to a moderate risk is likely with the threat for damaging winds and tornadoes (some strong) in the black hatched area. I would not be surprised if most of any mod risk is in parts of AR and LA and possibly extending into the delta region. Just have to see how it plays out.

 

[GhostOfJackie]

SPC has upgraded NW MS to a slight risk for severe weather Wednesday for a conditional low end event and maintaining a significant severe weather event possible late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. As I was expecting, they did retract the threat back slightly westward for Thursday as it looks like the timing of the storm has slowed slightly. By the time the storms reach the golden triangle area the system will be weakening as the best dynamics start to pull away from the region. However, parts of western and central MS are still fully under the gun and the SPC is saying an upgrade to a moderate risk is likely with the threat for damaging winds and tornadoes (some strong) in the black hatched area. I would not be surprised if most of any mod risk is in parts of AR and LA and possibly extending into the delta region. Just have to see how it plays out.

It looks like a Delta day. Delta spotting is the best spotting. I was 2 miles south of the Bassfield-Soso Easter tornado (the third largest tornado in United States history) and only could get a clear view of it for about a minute. South Mississippi is a jungle for chasing storms.

First time I've truly been scared of a storm.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

It looks like a Delta day. Delta spotting is the best spotting. I was 2 miles south of the Bassfield-Soso Easter tornado (the third largest tornado in United States history) and only could get a clear view of it for about a minute. South Mississippi is a jungle for chasing storms.

First time I've truly been scared of a storm.

There's two spots in the state that is good terrain to chase in. The delta and the black prairie region between West Point and Tupelo.

A few years ago I was down near Meridian for a tornado on some tree shrouded highway. I was close enough to hear it and look up and see the rotation of the mesocyclone but I never saw the tornado.

 

[Drebin]

There's two spots in the state that is good terrain to chase in. The delta and the black prairie region between West Point and Tupelo.

A few years ago I was down near Meridian for a tornado on some tree shrouded highway. I was close enough to hear it and look up and see the rotation of the mesocyclone but I never saw the tornado.

That is a scary situation to be in.

 

[DAWGSANDSAINTS]

What time of day on Thursday in the Delta will be the most significant chance of severe storms/tornadoes?
Does this extend up to Memphis as well ?
Thanks!

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

I really started trying to learn and follow this stuff about three years ago. Back in 2011 my hometown was wiped off the map. My family was lucky. My brother and nephews were not home. There is a memorial where his house stood. He moved but Mom is still there and I have a bunch of family members and friends around Mississippi and Alabama. I get to follow closely because I have the time to spend much of my time reading and following the latest developments in weather.
I have never seen a system this complex. I wish I could chase but I do what I can with RadarScope and the internet. I'm not predicting doom but I would be alert starting tomorrow and keep listening Thursday and Friday from Texas across to Georgia and the Carolinas. This is a big system that will take days to cross the country. It's already been causing problems in California.

 

[ababyatemydingo]

I really started trying to learn and follow this stuff about three years ago. Back in 2011 my hometown was wiped off the map. My family was lucky. My brother and nephews were not home. There is a memorial where his house stood. He moved but Mom is still there and I have a bunch of family members and friends around Mississippi and Alabama. I get to follow closely because I have the time to spend much of my time reading and following the latest developments in weather.
I have never seen a system this complex. I wish I could chase but I do what I can with RadarScope and the internet. I'm not predicting doom but I would be alert starting tomorrow and keep listening Thursday and Friday from Texas across to Georgia and the Carolinas. This is a big system that will take days to cross the country. It's already been causing problems in California.

I drove through smithville a few weeks back driving from a client in Amory to the hotel in Fulton. That dent is still in the top of that water tower, where the Ford Explorer got thrown 1700 yards and into the top of the water tower, and on past it another 400 yards. That thing formed over one of the holding lakes in Amory and was an EF-5 almost immediately after forming

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

If you ever have time, watch this video, it takes a while. They also have several from the major tornadoes from that day and other tornadoes in United States.

 

[ababyatemydingo]

Good one here, too

 

[GhostOfJackie]

I really started trying to learn and follow this stuff about three years ago. Back in 2011 my hometown was wiped off the map. My family was lucky. My brother and nephews were not home. There is a memorial where his house stood. He moved but Mom is still there and I have a bunch of family members and friends around Mississippi and Alabama. I get to follow closely because I have the time to spend much of my time reading and following the latest developments in weather.
I have never seen a system this complex. I wish I could chase but I do what I can with RadarScope and the internet. I'm not predicting doom but I would be alert starting tomorrow and keep listening Thursday and Friday from Texas across to Georgia and the Carolinas. This is a big system that will take days to cross the country. It's already been causing problems in California.

All you need is radar scope my friend. Have fun and be careful. Been doing it for years as a hobby and when I retire (in 30 years) it's all I will do. Some people like to play golf in their free time. Personally, I'd rather be near inclement weather, especially hurricanes.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

I really started trying to learn and follow this stuff about three years ago. Back in 2011 my hometown was wiped off the map. My family was lucky. My brother and nephews were not home. There is a memorial where his house stood. He moved but Mom is still there and I have a bunch of family members and friends around Mississippi and Alabama. I get to follow closely because I have the time to spend much of my time reading and following the latest developments in weather.
I have never seen a system this complex. I wish I could chase but I do what I can with RadarScope and the internet. I'm not predicting doom but I would be alert starting tomorrow and keep listening Thursday and Friday from Texas across to Georgia and the Carolinas. This is a big system that will take days to cross the country. It's already been causing problems in California.

If you want to chase let me offer the following advice.

1. Take a basic and advanced spotter training class from the NWS. A lot of offices offer them online and they should be in full swing now.

2. Start small. This summer or anytime there are non-severe storms get out there and practice approaching them and setting up to their south and southwest. If you make a mistake far better to make one on a pop up storm than a supercell that just dropped a EF-3.

3. Find somebody nearby (or within what you consider driving distance) that chases and you consider safe and ok to learn from and ask to ride along. You will be shocked the access that you will get by uttering the following phrase: "I'll chip in on gas."

4. Don't let others deter you from doing it. It's addictive as hell and at the same time you are providing data that an save lives and at the end of the day that is what it comes down to. Research has shown people are 80% more likely to take shelter if they know for certain a tornado is on the ground. So if a chaser can provide that pic of the tornado or damage one just caused that can save lives. It's like I tell my family - One day doing this may well end up killing me, but if it does then know I went out on my terms, doing what I love, and trying to help people to my last breath.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

If you ever have time, watch this video, it takes a while. They also have several from the major tornadoes from that day and other tornadoes in United States.

That day was unlike any I'd ever seen. Torcon was literally 10 and it was almost as if you knew with certainty it was coming, like a hurricane. The tornadoes were on the ground and so strong and put together that you knew they were coming right for you. There was no question.

That puts it in perspective when we get these 'elevated' threats weekly.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Been some changes to the severe threats. Parts of north MS have been upgraded to an enhanced risk this afternoon and tonight and Thursday night/Friday not looking nearly as impressive as before. Most of the northern 1/3 of the state has been included in a 10% hatched tornado threat. The regular 10% chance means there is a 10% chance of there being a tornado within 25 miles of any given point. The hatched means that there is at least a 10% chance of any of those tornadoes being EF2+ in strength. One thing I am seeing on forecast soundings is the presence of a capping inversion just above the surface over in east MS. Current thinking is that the storms won't be able to overcome the cap along the 82 corridor in east MS so that area may not see much in the way of storms. However, if any do happen to be able to break the cap then the atmosphere will be primed for severe storms including tornadoes.

The bottom graphic is for Thursday where a moderate risk has been issued for areas to our west with parts of west MS under an enhanced risk with a 10% hatched like today. As models come in I have been less and less impressed with this second event. Not to say nothing could happen in MS, but it looks to peak back over AR in the moderate risk area.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

Looks like they finished the repairs to the Jackson radar. Now Little Rock is down for repairs.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

What time of day on Thursday in the Delta will be the most significant chance of severe storms/tornadoes?
Does this extend up to Memphis as well ?
Thanks!

I think anything in MS will be Thursday night into Friday morning. Memphis will be included.

 

[thatsbaseball]

Looks like they finished the repairs to the Jackson radar. Now Little Rock is down for repairs.

I haven't played with it yet but did they make any notable improvements/modifications ?

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

There's probably gonna be a flash flood threat in Mississippi tonight as well.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

I haven't played with it yet but did they make any notable improvements/modifications ?

I don’t think there were any improvements just a major refurbishment of the radar

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

I don’t think there were any improvements just a major refurbishment of the radar

Yeah, It was just a service upgrade. Trying to squeeze another 20 years out of them. Maybe by then they will be ready to transition to phased array radars.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

Yeah, It was just a service upgrade. Trying to squeeze another 20 years out of them. Maybe by then they will be ready to transition to phased array radars.

The government really needs to look at the radar sites age and coverage in the mid South for age many severe systems as you experience. There are some real empty spots. I would've had to been a forecaster before they put the Columbus radar up.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

The government really needs to look at the radar sites age and coverage in the mid South for age many severe systems as you experience. There are some real empty spots. I would've had to been a forecaster before they put the Columbus radar up.

I addressed that in the video series I made last year and posted the links to here a few days ago. The video on why chasers are important is the one. With the radar holes here in MS they can miss a lot of stuff.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

I addressed that in the video series I made last year and posted the links to here a few days ago. The video on why chasers are important is the one. With the radar holes here in MS they can miss a lot of stuff.

There needs to be a radar site around Greenville.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

\]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 50
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
330 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2023

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Central and southern Arkansas
Northern Mississippi
Extreme southeast Oklahoma
Southwest Tennessee
Northeast Texas

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 330 PM
until 1000 PM CST.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 3 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

SUMMARY...Storms should increase and coverage and intensity this
afternoon and evening, with a threat for large hail, damaging winds
and a few tornadoes.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles
north and south of a line from 50 miles northeast of Tupelo MS to 45
miles southwest of De Queen AR. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 25035.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

There needs to be a radar site around Greenville.

They have that one in Monroe but it's about worthless. They have to restrict the signal to not interfere with Jackson.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Likely tornado near Guntown.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

This cell southwest of me coming from Helena is starting to look a little suspicious.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Storm near Rienzi very close to being warned.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

This cell southwest of me coming from Helena is starting to look a little suspicious.

One of our chasers is on that storm now.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

One of our chasers is on that storm now.

man, that looks like a tighter rotation near Crenshaw.

 

[3000lbchicken]

why can't they link all the radars in radarscope? should be able to see the best velocity maps when moving around.

That storm in Ark near Dumas headed to Rosedale looks impressive.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Storm near Dumas, AR, is the real deal. If it drops one it's going to drop a big one. If you're in the path of this storm prepare to take shelter.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

It will be crossing the Mississippi River near Rosedale soon. It's a monster.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

We got a chaser near Mound Bayou waiting in it.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

It looks like it's trying to cycle right now. It has had an impressive hail core. Last time I saw one like that we ended up having to replace our roof when I first moved in this house.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

It looks like it's trying to cycle right now. It has had an impressive hail core. Last time I saw one like that we ended up having to replace our roof when I first moved in this house.

It's either cycling or dying. My initial guess is cycling.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

It's either cycling or dying. My initial guess is cycling.

It's crossing the river. Is the atmosphere in North Miss still volatile as it was earlier?

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

It's crossing the river. Is the atmosphere in North Miss still volatile as it was earlier?

Maybe a little more volatile down that way. It’s worked over up here.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

Maybe a little more volatile down that way. It’s worked over up here.

That's what I thought, then the storm prediction center just released released this discussion.

North Mississippi

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 50 continues.

SUMMARY...Local risk for severe weather may continue for the next 1
to 2 hours across parts of northern Mississippi. An extension of
the watch beyond the scheduled 04Z expiration may be needed.

 

[DerHntr]

Huntsville with a warning now. The storm is pretty damn big.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

Gonna be a long day tomorrow. Here's a nice big hail storm cranking up tonight south of San Antonio.