Who ya go tonight?

[columbiadawg2]

I say UGA rolls. Just have a feeling the clock hits midnight on Cinderella. Also after two awesome semi's, I'm worried we're due for a blowout.

 

[Felonious Junk]

70% of the bets are on TCU to cover so I’m assuming UGA will cover easily.

 

[FQDawg]

My heart wants TCU to win but I think Georgia probably wins by 10+.

 

[patdog]

I think you're right. Just hard to see UGA losing this one.

 

[karlchilders.sixpack]

If I'm betting, I take TCU with 13 points.
Straight up, it's a coin flip to me, TCU has speed to burn, and have shown that they can play on the big stage.

 

[Cantdoitsal]

70% of the bets are on TCU to cover so I’m assuming UGA will cover easily.

That surprises me. I thought Vegas set the lines to get it closer to 50/50.

 

[Dawg1976]

I don't bet but will be pulling for TCU.

 

[Cantdoitsal]

I'm almost within walking distance to TCU's Campus but it's a little too far for that. I'll drive 3 miles to the Kroger on University Ave and find a bar to go watch and check out an atmosphere I haven't experienced. GO FROGS!!!

 

[SchrodingersDawg]

Well, I'm pulling for TCU. Should be a good game.

 

[patdog]

That surprises me. I thought Vegas set the lines to get it closer to 50/50.

I think there's a lot of misinformation that gets put out about betting trends. Las Vegas doesn't make big bets, it makes sure bets and the sure bet is to get the money close to 50/50. Since 1992, Vegas has made 5.17% on football bets, with the percent by year ranging from about 3% to 8%.

 

[Felonious Junk]

I think there's a lot of misinformation that gets put out about betting trends. Las Vegas doesn't make big bets, it makes sure bets and the sure bet is to get the money close to 50/50. Since 1992, Vegas has made 5.17% on football bets, with the percent by year ranging from about 3% to 8%.

This is from one of the data guys at MGM

 

[BulldogBlitz]

I got the team with the most points as time expires. That's a 100% winner.

 

[patdog]

This is from one of the data guys at MGM

Are these kinds of statements regulated or audited?

 

[Felonious Junk]

Are these kinds of statements regulated or audited?

He’s just reporting the wagering data that he has access to as an employee of MGM. He reports all types of betting data on his twitter feed.

 

[patdog]

He’s just reporting the wagering data that he has access to as an employee of MGM. He reports all types of betting data on his twitter feed.

So MGM voluntarily lets an employee publish proprietary betting information to the world? How do you know the information he reports is accurate? Is it audited, regulated, or otherwise independently verified?

 

[Felonious Junk]

So MGM voluntarily lets an employee publish proprietary betting information to the world? How do you know the information he reports is accurate? Is it audited, regulated, or otherwise independently verified?

Well yes they allow him to publish this data as you can see he does it regularly and hasn’t been fired.
As far as your question on third party verification, I’m not sure that this rises to that level of scrutiny. You don’t have to believe him if you don’t want to.

 

[Rupert Jenkins]

I'm pulling for TCU but know that the SEC Champs always take care of business

 

[patdog]

Well yes they allow him to publish this data as you can see he does it regularly and hasn’t been fired.
As far as your question on third party verification, I’m not sure that this rises to that level of scrutiny. You don’t have to believe him if you don’t want to.

So which is more likely. MGM voluntarily allows an employee to publish proprietary information or it has an employee who publishes what MGM wants its potential customers to hear? If Vegas is allowing bets on big games to be skewed so heavily (70/30), how is its gross profit on football so consistent from year to year staying within 1% of a 5.17% gross profit in almost all years? Shouldn't it have some big years and some lean years?

 

[dorndawg]

So which is more likely. MGM voluntarily allows an employee to publish proprietary information or it has an employee who publishes what MGM wants its potential customers to hear? If Vegas is allowing bets on big games to be skewed so heavily (70/30), how is its gross profit on football so consistent from year to year staying within 1% of a 5.17% gross profit in almost all years? Shouldn't it have some big years and some lean years?

 

[Felonious Junk]

So which is more likely. MGM voluntarily allows an employee to publish proprietary information or it has an employee who publishes what MGM wants its potential customers to hear? If Vegas is allowing bets on big games to be skewed so heavily (70/30), how is its gross profit on football so consistent from year to year staying within 1% of a 5.17% gross profit in almost all years? Shouldn't it have some big years and some lean years?

Well as you can see in the first line of the tweet he says that the line moved from -12.5 to -13 which is what they do in order to adjust discrepancies in betting on one side of the line.

 

[dawgstudent]

I don't see UGA covering.

 

[OG Goat Holder]

I'm torn between betting the easy money on Georgia covering, or pulling for TCU.

I think Georgia wins like 42-14 but I want to be wrong.

Just have a feeling the clock hits midnight on Cinderella.

Yep, SEC blue blood talent is going to take over. TCU is capable in a one-game scenario, but in multiple games back to back, their odds drastically decrease. They shot their wad against Michigan.

 

[patdog]

Well as you can see in the first line of the tweet he says that the line moved from -12.5 to -13 which is what they do in order to adjust discrepancies in betting on one side of the line.

No doubt the line moves to get the bets closer to 50-50. But 70-30 is a HUGE imbalance that would lead to massive gains or losses for Vegas depending on the game results. I'm not buying that without knowing how it's been independently verified.

 

[Felonious Junk]

No doubt the line moves to get the bets closer to 50-50. But 70-30 is a HUGE imbalance that would lead to massive gains or losses for Vegas depending on the game results. I'm not buying that without knowing how it's been independently verified.

 

[Trojanbulldog19]

I'll be cheering for the frogs but my guess is UGA experience and recruiting goes to work and they win easily.

 

[patdog]

Also, the spread moved in the OPPOSITE direction of how it would move if 70% of the money was on TCU. Moving it from 12.5 to 13 would entice even more money to be bet on TCU.

 

[L4Dawg]

UGA big. Michigan played about as bad as they could have in the first half against TCU and they still nearly won the game.

 

[greenbean.sixpack]

I think this will be a UGA blowout. The golden moon has UGA -13.5, I gonna lay the lumber this afternoon on them.

 

[Felonious Junk]

Also, the spread moved in the OPPOSITE direction of how it would move if 70% of the money was on TCU. Moving it from 12.5 to 13 would entice even more money to be bet on TCU.

He doesn’t say 70% of the money is on TCU. He said 70% of the bets are on TCU. Which means the 30% on UGA are a larger percentage of the total money wagered. That’s why the line moved in UGAs favor

 

[patdog]

He doesn’t say 70% of the money is on TCU. He said 70% of the bets are on TCU. Which means the 30% on UGA are a larger percentage of the total money wagered. That’s why the line moved in UGAs favor

That's possible then. Still seems like a pretty huge imbalance but could be true. If it is true, it means that the big bettors are betting very heavily on Georgia.

 

[Trojanbulldog19]

Gonna hypnotize Georgia and win the game

 

[Felonious Junk]

That's possible then. Still seems like a pretty huge imbalance but could be true. If it is true, it means that the big bettors are betting very heavily on Georgia.

Yes. I know. That’s the point.

 

[Anon1669338224]

I'm just hoping for a good game.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

I’m pulling for TCU. I think they’ll cover but Georgia will win.

 

[Ghostman]

UGA by 3 TDs or more. TCU has to be +2 or better in the turnover margin to have a chance.

 

[Perd Hapley]

TCU won a nailbiter over the 3rd most talented team in the CFP. They still haven’t played a Top 5 team in terms of pure talent yet. They are about to go up against #1. I wouldn’t expect it to be close, but we’ll see.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

Which is why I think Georgia will cover late.

 

[Cantdoitsal]

If it's 70% TCU, I'm thinking something's up and Las Vegas knows something. If UGA covers, think I'll take a 3 day trip to MGM and take advantage of all the free schit they'll be handing out. At any rate, I'll be pulling for TCU tonight at one of their campus bars. GO FROGS!!!!

 

[bullygrowl]

That surprises me. I thought Vegas set the lines to get it closer to 50/50.

They do want the money close to 50/50. 10 people in line - 7 bet TCU for $100 each - 3 bet GA $250 each. 70% bet TCU but more money on GA, the line moves toward GA. Small sample, but, you get the picture.

 

[Cantdoitsal]

They do want the money close to 50/50. 10 people in line - 7 bet TCU for $100 each - 3 bet GA $250 each. 70% bet TCU but more money on GA, the line moves toward GA. Small sample, but, you get the picture.

Gotcha. So the bottom line money part still close to 50 / 50 I reckon,