Except they brought him in to be the starter. That’s how awful this signing is and why it will probably be the final chapter for Pike and the assistant coaches.
Parker Jefferson 6'10" Center
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Of many problems with your post - and do not get me wrong, I LOVE your optimism (I am generally an optimist also ... this Francis situation just feels SO wrong to me): Indications from Richie, confirmed by Francis' own interview after he committed to RU, is that HE thinks the RU staff (read: Knight and Pikiell) view him as the starting PG and the "alpha", NOT the "7th" man.
To NJHawk: I completely disagree with your presumptive choices for potential outcomes. You pruposefully list the "choices" so your analysis would be correct. That is analytical dishonest (not saying you are dishonest - just that your analytics are intellectually dishonest because you set analytical criteria that ensure your "analysis" is correct no matter what the outcome). And I know this - not because I am smarter than you or Knight or Pikiell (though I have eyes), but because my entire career for 40+ years has been predicated on performing analyses - and winnowing out bad or intellectually dishonest analysis from better analysis. You have an agenda (not sure what it is - but that is okay, each and everyone of us has an agenda) - and you are clearly using that agenda to shape your analytical FRAMEWORK, rather than look at the FACT basis and fuller comparisons to then let your analysis take the argument where it will. That leads to an inherently flawed conclusion. That siad, FRancis might outperform my expectations - might even be a positive contributor. And I'd be happy if that helped the team. But PSAL is correct: It is STILL the wrong decision to pay Francis that much - it is bad odds.
I think the much better comparison player is Acuff: A volume shooter, playing for a poor team in a weak conference, who led the conference in scoring (21.7 ppg) ... who was an inconsistent role player at RU and the Big 10 level, whose offensive strengths did NOT translate to the Big 10 play. I will say that Acuff's foot injury probably affected his play all or most of the season. Even so ... There are large differences between Francis and Acuff, NONE of which favor Francis:
1) Acuff was listed at 6'4" - though I think he was actually 6'3" - he was clearly 1" shorter than the 6'4" J. Williams. Francis is listed at 6'0", but appears to be shorter. Acuff was also older, more physically built - Francis is skinny.
2) Acuff's team was below average, but 13-18 or so ... not NEARLY as bad as NJIT (though in Acuff's JUNIOR season, when he was the 2nd leading scorer on the team, EMU had as poor a record). And though the MAC is a poor conference, it is NOT as bad as is the AEC. So Acuff led a better team in a better conference.
3) Acuff was a much better shooter - mid-range and 3-point - than Francis is - in a better conference, therefore against better competition.
4) Acuff was being asked to play to his strengths: Come off the bench, provide scoring spark, at 2G ... and even then he was unable to do so in more than a small handful of games. Francis is apparently being asked to START, at PG - which he has never played before, and has shown no skill set to be.
Yet ... Acuff could only average about 6 ppg for RU in the Big 10 ... he did have some very good games, but also MANY games of zero or negative contribution. What on earth in Francis' game makes you think he would do any better?
FYI: Derkack is no comparison either - Derkack's qualifications (as a FR and SO - the same as Francis) were VASTLY superior to Francis' qualifications. Yet HE also failed to translate those qualifications ot be being a consistent positive contributor at the Big 10 level.
FYI: Billy is an optimist ... NJHawk is simply delusional. And there is a difference.
It’s true that I’m an optimist, but I would say more accurately that I’m an optimistic realist. My guess, based on what we know about Pike, is that he told Francis he’d have a chance to compete for a starting PG role, versus anointing him as such.
And I’ll say again, that if Tariq legitimately wins a starting role, and proves that he deserves it in actual games, then at $350k we would have gotten a bargain. And if he’s relegated to 7th man status, then he would still be compensated fairly, imo, based on current market factors.
In that NJIT/GW match up, Buchannon had like 5 rebounds, 6 assists, 4 steals, and zero turnovers and shot like 8-13. Francis was 6-17, with 9 assists, but 5 turnovers. Efficiency vs non Efficiency
Francis did lead the league in scoring, but there was only one guy who took more shots and that guy shot a better % from 2, shot a better % from 3, and shot a better % from the FT line. Francis just took 2 more shots a game to average 1/2 a point more than the kid from Bryant.
I agree, I don't think they guaranteed the kid a starting role, but the opportunity to compete. I see him like as the 8th/9th guy and $350K would be too high, but if hes a first guy off the bench, yeah, $350 K is probably in line. Just don't think that will be good for the team outlook.
He cancelled ? Back to open try outs for a Center? Amazing we don’t even seem to get any visitors
I thought Richie said RU cancelled the visit, wonder who did the actual cancelling.
Why would we Cancel the visit? We need him badly. Probably got cold feet or may have received other offers.
Maybe we would cancel when he disclosed what he wanted to consider coming to RU?
No we don't, we need an experienced big badly.
We’re open to kids with potential, who can grow. We don’t have the money for a good experienced big. So we’ll have to scrape what we can get from
The bargain bin.
A solid high school big isn't the bargain bin, it's more like a lotto ticket, hoping it would stick around. The more youth you bring in, it's more likely a few stick around to keep your culture moving forward. You need kids like this, in addition to kids ready to play now.
We’re open to high school bigs with potential and we’ll also be shopping the portal bargain bin for kids with experience. Hope this clears things up.
1) he’s going to be in the top 10 of the rotation for sure. 2) Back up are making way more than you are guesstimating… the worst player on the team is going to make $80k just with the Vegas tournament $$. Most likely $100k-$150k at least.
He better get a serviceable big or coach is toast. Nail in the coffin! The administration will realize the money that will be lost this year and years to come and drop him!
Until the settlement is finalized, we are unable to make tangible offers to kids, only contingent offers, and that puts us in a weaker position relative to the competition.
Why discuss Acuff when he's was not a player who was given the ball to make plays, with JWill, Derkack, JMike and Dylan Harper and then say "he only averaged 6PPG.....LMAO....and then compare that to Francis who is more of a create his own shot AND doesn't have to find opportunities like Acuff did with others handling the ball.
On the surface, the height item is literally the only drawback on Francis and even with that, his stats are miles better than Derkack and JMike and I could argue JWill is more effective than Francis but that's based on defense and rebounding BUT JWill was also not used the same way he was in 2023-24, because of all the things I just outlined for Acuff.....you cannot evaluate players across seasons, as if the personnel and usage is the same. You know that and I know that.
So....with Francis not sharing usage with Derkack, JWill and Dylan Harper AND without Ace Bailey touches. It is IMPOSSIBLE to forecast anything but solid numbers for Francis.....I say SOLID in the context of not taking Richie information on how much he did or didn't get paid, because that information is spotty at best.....
We were also told RU was taking Jefferson AND a portal big, which also is factually wrong.....so I would suggest stop assuming that everything the mods say is 100% correct all the time.....RU was NEVER taking 2 bigs, with Dortch, Ware and Ogbole....
Which explains why Jefferson is now not coming and a portal option up front is now likely. So, while Francis may think he's a starter, so did Noah Fernandes, so did Jordan Derkack, so did Tyson Acuff, so did Gavin Griffiths and so did Jeremiah Williams......in almost ALL those cases, players ALL think they're an alpha and going to be the man or starters the minute they walk in the door......and then they see there's competition and they're playing 18 to 22 minutes a game. Which is where Francis likely lands by mid January 2026, once Lino Mark eventually takes over.
It is funny we were repeatedly told Jefferson had noting to do with the teams plan for a portal big and here we are...
On #2: Are we sure the Vegas money gets distributed equally among all scholarship players? Seems like the coaches should decide who gets what, since it would have been allocated as part of the recruitment process.
It’s been noted that the team distributed evenly this past year.
This staff is toast unless they are competitive next year. Odds are not good here.
Stop, the offers already have that baked in. We're still bottom of the power conferences in total available funds either way and that is hampering everything.
Are you effing kidding me? There are SO many things wrong in this post it is difficult to get to all of them.
"Why discuss Acuff when he's was not a player who was given the ball to make plays ... and then compare that to Francis who is more of a create his own shot AND doesn't have to find opportunities like Acuff did ..." HELLO!!!! My "comparison" was Acuff AT EASTERN MICHIGAN vs Francis AT NJIT ... and whether any of what they actually did was likely to translate into adequate Big 10 performance. Simple reading comprehension would help you a LOT. Acuff WAS Francis when he was at Eastern Michigan - except taller, bigger, stronger and a better shooter, playing against better competition.
At EMU, Acuff averaged 38 mpg, took 18.7 FG's per game (vs Francis' 18 FG/g), did have a lower 3-point FG% his last season at EMU (30% v Francis' 32,5% last season) - but took more than 2 FEWER 3-point shots per game, shot OVER 50% from 2-point range (vs Francis shooting 40% from 2-pount range) ... he did have fewer assists (2.8/g v Francis' 3.6/g), but he ALSO had many fewer TO/g despite having the ball in his hands all the time (2.0/g) - his assist to TO ratio was not great at 1.4 to 1 - but 20% better than Francis' ratio. Acuff created his own shot ALL THE TIME at EMU, the ball in his hands all the time. In essence they were IDENTICAL players - except, as I said, Acuff was taller, bigger, stronger and a better shooter in general, and took care of the ball better. Acuff WOULD have played a bigger role at RU had he been able to translate his skills better to Big 10 competition - but he could not.
What on earth do you see that would imply that the shorter, smaller, less good shooter, less good ball-handling Francis' skills will translate better to the Big 10? I will argue there is strong ANALYTICAL cause to assume he will have a HARDER time contributing than did Acuff - and because there is more time available for him to soak up because of no Harper or Bailey, that is actually WORSE for RU ... I would argue, in fact, that should Francis get 18-22 mpg because he was beaten out by other RU players, that is STILL TOO MANY MINUTES - and an awful sign for RU's team performance.
"On the surface, the height item is literally the only drawback on Francis and even with that, his stats are miles better than Derkack and JMike ..." There are only two things dead wrong about that statement: That Francis' height is Francis' only drawback, and that his stats are "miles better" than Derkack and J. Davis. But otherwise, sound analysis.
I have been thorough posting the stats. Derkack was a superior player for Merrimack as a SO than Francis was as a SO for NJIT: he not only was a 1st Team, All Conference player (vs Francis not even being on the 1st THREE All Conference teams in HIS conference) and a 1st Team All Defense, but actually WON both Player fo the Year and Defensive Player of the Year in the NEC - as a SO. My general understanding is that those awards meant the Conference considered Derkack the best player in the conference and the best defender in the conference ... I guess I could be wrong and that Francis was really better than Derkack when he was not even considered one of the top 15 players in the AEC (a nearly equally woeful conference). It IS true that as a SO Francis shot much better from 3-point range than did Derkack (32.5% to 27.5%), but Derkack was HUGELY better from 2-point range (58%!!! vs Francis' 40%), and averaged just 2 ppg fewer than did Francis averaging 2 fewer mpg - and importantly, scored 2 fewer ppg in more than SIX (6) fewer shots per game. Derkack was significantly more efficient offensively than was Francis - not even close., Francis WAS the better FT shooter - Derkack was a respectable 72% ... but Derkack also attempted nearly twice as many FTs per game as did Francis, and may have made more FT's than Francis even attempted. It is also true that as bad as Francis was with his assist/TO ratio, Derkack was worse - Derkakc turned the ball over an enormous amount of the time (4/g vs Frabcis 3.1/g). But Derkack was a WING FORWARD, not a Guard - so played a different playmaking role ... Francis had a very poor assist/TO ratio for a guard at less than 1.2 to 1 - and now you think he deserves 18-22 mpg (and that those minutes would be good for RU) as a PG? In what alternate universe do you live?
I would add, Derkack's skills ALSO did not translate to adequate Big 10 performance - yes, he had the awesome MSU game, but outside of that he provided energy and some aggressiveness resulting in FT's and not much else. Whydo you think an under 6'0" 2G who has to play PG for RU, who had significantly worse offensive efficiency performance against equally bad competition, would be able to translate better to the Big 10 than did Derkack? And, of, by the way, Derkakc was likely more athletic than is Francis. Francis does have more quickness than Acuff, for example, but not clear he is actually quicker than Derkack - and Derkack certainly had good vertical leap athleticism and straight0ahead speed.
As to Davis, it is difficult to compare the 2 because Davis has ONLY ever been a PG, has never been called upon to carry the load offensively, so the "numbers" are not really apples ot apples. EXCEPT, here are some FACTS to remind you of: Davis actually shot better form 3-point range last season as a SO than did Francis as a SO ... Davis had a HUGELY better assist to turnover ratio of 3.4 to 1, vs Francis 1.2 to 1 ... Davis, even with a worse defensive season than the prior year a s a FR, is still probably 10 times the defender Francis is ... and Davis is a legitimate 6'2" AND STRONG, 2" to 4" taller than Francis.
As to your statement that "on the surface Francis' height is his only drawback ..." HAHAHAHAHA. First, see above ... Other than being a fine FT shooter, he does NOTHING else that can remotely be called above average: BNot shooting from any range not taking care of the ball, not defending. Second, frankly, even if I am wrong, and you are correct, and Francis was and is a much better player than Derkack and Davis, the FACT that he is listed at 6'0", and the likelihood he is actually shorter, closer to 5'10" or maybe 5'11" IS BY ITSELF A COMPLETE DISQUALIFIER. We KNOW with certainty that even an excellent or at least solid on-ball defender like Fernandes COULD NOT DEFEND Big 10 2G's - he was just too short. Big 10 opponents simply shot right over the 5'11" Fernandes, and/or posted him up ... and there was lietrally nothing he could do to stop them. And Francis is not half the quality defender that Fernandes was. And frankly, I do not think Francis can even defend Big 10 PG's - he would be the literally shortest PG in the Big 10.
Your last paragraph is meaningless. And while I hope Francis exceeds my expectations, I see no data or any other reason to assume he will do so. And if he does indeed actually play 18-22 mpg, after being beaten out by Lino Mark and/or Davis, then RU will be awful - because he would STILL be playing too any minutes, and because the team would have been hurt horribly by him playing MORE than that early in the season as he was getting outplayed by the others - we all know how stubborn Pikiell can be when trying to be loyal to a player ... and we KNOW Knight will be very, very loyal to Francis, eh? In that case WHATEVER the unknown amount RU is paying him is probably twice what it should be (or more),, money that could have been allocated elsewhere with better affect.
The dollars are baked in but they’re not final until the settlement is finalized, which is why it’s a contingent offer. the paucity of funds plus the contingency of our offer makes it more difficult to recruit.
The coach was recruiting reasonably well until NIL became a thing
You don't need to write a War & Peace response dude...lol. He's no expert no matter how often he tries telling everyone he's the smartest guy in the room. He's had so many bad takes on football and basketball that he isn't one to take seriously.
I was never a fan of the Tyson Acuff pick up but Francis doesn’t belong in the same stratosphere as him. Acuff failed because he was not a fit at all for the role he was brought in for last season. We didn’t need a volume scorer - we had Dylan. At this point, I’d love to have him for 2025-26. He’s 6-4 with long arms for starters. Not a good half court defender but looked solid in the press scheme. He only played 15 mpg and scored over 5 ppg. Not a bad ball handler.
Francis is a tiny guard who the scouting report says struggles with ball handling at the American East Level. The thought of him as the starting PG is scary, but the alpha commentary doesn’t mean anything IMO about our plans. The staff always talks everyone up in pre-season.
I can’t get my hand on Billy’s logic though whether Pike thinks he’ll be a 7 man or a starter. To me that’s irrelevant - as is the fact that we may have budgeted $350k for a 7 man. I just don’t understand. Let’s say I got a new job and need to buy a suit. If in my head I come up with an upper limit of $1,500 that I’m willing to spend as my “budget”, but then I find something heavily discounted at Marshalls that I’m ok with (maybe slight irregularities or whatever) - am I going to offer the cashier at Marshalls $1,500 for that suit since I was willing to pay that amount? Of course not. There is no reason for us to be paying Francis or anyone else more than a couple thousand dollars premium above our best estimation of what another team is willing to spend on that player. No exceptions.
When Jefferson was canceled , he was replaced by an undisclosed player visit. There was a visitor but the name has not been leaked.
Iowa State got a point guard that was high on our list as we may need to keep looking. He may have been the individual close to giving a verbal. Goal is to bring in a starting point or combo guard, a shooter, and a starting center. Staff is playing with their cards face down so no one outside of the hierarchy knows what’s going on. All three may start for us but definitely two of the three.
Iowa State got a point guard that was high on our list as we may need to keep looking. He may have been the individual close to giving a verbal. Goal is to bring in a starting point or combo guard, a shooter, and a starting center. Staff is playing with their cards face down so no one outside of the hierarchy knows what’s going on. All three may start for us but definitely two of the three.
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Well now we know why they cancelled... Baye Fall is definitely a more intriguing option.
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Yeah a guy who's played 13 games in 2 seasons with no injury history is going to light it up for RU. 
This is another desperation move like Francis.
This is another desperation move like Francis.
We're not getting a star. I'd rather have the McDonald's all American with p4 experience going into his junior year.Yeah a guy who's played 13 games in 2 seasons with no injury history is going to light it up for RU.
This is another desperation move like Francis.
He’s another 3rd big option like Ogbole that is going to play way more than necessary.
Ernest Hemingway v. William Faulkner literary works type of posts going on between them.
Can we banish them to writing stone tablets? That will make them clean up the non-stop word salad quickly.
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