How much did bringing in Lathan contribute towards future success?
Zero
Because we got priced out and he transfered out.
Zero
Because we got priced out and he transfered out.
Parker Jefferson 6'10" Center
- Thread starter Knights 1212
- Start date
Show me where I said I like Francis.....I have him at 18 to 22 minutes a game and have Lino Mark and Kaden Powers as developing into a potential starting backcourt in some spots. I just think Francis is better than most of the guards we brought in via the portal (not a big leap there, LOL), but this wild bashing of Francis, when he's clearly better than JMike (across the board) doesn't add up to me.
If we are fine with JMike, I dont see how fans are up in arms on a role playing 6th man type of guard in Francis.
My January/February 2026 starters are
Center or big Forward (Portal)
Grant
Buchanan
Mark
Kaden Powers or Portal SG
Bench
Jmike
Francis
Powers
Nwuli
Jefferson
Ogbole
Ware
Dortch
All we need is JMike to be a solid floor general to run the 2nd unit with in Francis in spots, once Powers starts getting more comfortable. This is unless someone at SG, falls into our laps at a reasonable price.
There is mostly defensive players on this roster, specifically Grant, Nwuli and Buchanan, which mixed with Ogbole and a better off season of development from Dortch, is more than enough defensive players.
This roster lacks scoring, which is why Jefferson is a big plus. I like Jefferson, Nwuli, Mark and Powers a LOT, based on tape and upside.
I do get that this is a development season, so if we go 14-18 or 16-16, I'm not going to cry murder like some fans, but I am reserving comments until I see the 2026 HS class put together. I think we can get 2 Top 100 kids again and let the roster compete for playing time in 2026-27.
Not relevant, that can be said for any player on any roster. You are only priced out, if you dont have any other options, like Washington did in overpaying for Lathan. Just because a player stays one year or just 2, doesn't mean much to me anymore. It's about what can RU afford and creating depth, so you dont need 9 players every spring in the portal. 2 is reasonable, 3 is not good, 4 or more and you're not going to succeed without having 10M or more to spend.
It’s highly unlikely that Francis is better than J Mike. Again, J Mike played 18 minutes for us, a BIG team, in 2023-24 as a true frosh. We weren’t the best team in the world, granted, but we also weren’t a 6 win American East team. Whatever Francis did there is meaningless. Your only looking at points. Nothing else. He’s smaller than J Mike. A far worse defender for sure. And probably won’t even be a better offensive player up against real opponents. It’s an extreme long shot.
I’ll tell you what. Since you like offense so much, I suggest you go back and review the scrimmage clips from last pre-season. J-Mike looked like a scoring machine up against our garbage defensive units. That should give you a taste of what he might’ve been able to do if he played a bunch of terrible teams with no shot blockers and was green lighted to take +18 shots per game.
I agree with both of you, except for the Dortch at center part. He’d be really out of position. Could be a mini Caleb though.
I mean geez. If the boards are short changing anyone, it’s Buchanan. The A-10 is a real league. Derek Simpson is proof of it. 8.3 ppg for us. 8.9 ppg for St Joes averaging more minutes per game. Derek was a junior.
Buchanan scored 15.6 ppg for GW as a frosh. He had an injury that slowed him down some and he never found a niche in the system GW shifted to when he was out. But if anyone has potential to bounce back and be a 13 ppg type for us as a junior, it’s him. I hope we’re hunting for 2-3 more guys just like him (different positions obviously).
Buchanan scored 15.6 ppg for GW as a frosh. He had an injury that slowed him down some and he never found a niche in the system GW shifted to when he was out. But if anyone has potential to bounce back and be a 13 ppg type for us as a junior, it’s him. I hope we’re hunting for 2-3 more guys just like him (different positions obviously).
He can play center if we press. Like Wolf did early on before Mag got hurt. That’s the role I envision him in. Hes 6-9 so hopefully
Bulking up. Hoping for 15-20 minutes there. And maybe 5-10 at forward spelling the others when Ogbole is in and we shift to traditional halfcourt style.
Scratch Dortch to center if we don’t press of course. But I think we will.
There were a whole lot of things wrong with this past season's team but you can't give them a pass just because they were terrific on offense, they were *** on defense.
After your 800 years of experience and "knowing more ball than the average person" or whatever, you would think you would've grasped by now that freshmen are extremely unlikely to come in and be solid players in the Big Ten right away. But no, every year it's "Pike must start using [freshman that isn't playing] immediately, he will be the difference maker"
Ogbole doesn't offer rim protection, he averages 2 blocked shots a month
He doesn’t block shots but he’s a big physical presence. Unfortunately - he still doesn’t understand the game that well like when to step out and screen - things like that. But guys didn’t drive at him the way they did Lathan. He adds nothing on offense, but if we can work around that with other scorers we could be okay for stretches. There were certain match ups where playing Lathan basically meant an automatic basket. In the big 10, it’s really hard to rely on an offense only center. You can cover up for lack of offense at one position easier than you can poor post defender. Teams drove right at Lathan. Scored every time. It really hurt us. And Ace was a frosh so he was often late on the help too. The post D was historically bad and Dylan had trouble with stamina on D as Green predicted he would. At the NBA level he’ll be fine because he won’t be seeing as many minutes right away.
Francis is not 1/10 the on the ball defender that JMike is, and of much weaker stature.
Agree the whole team played matador defense, including Ace and Dylan. Pike is a defensive guru but got nothing out of this team on that end of the floor. This was a colossal disaster by Pike. Probably could have been better if he had $$$ for a center. I still feel like he could have got more out of the transfers if he ran an offense.
Am I forgetting someone? Who is Jefferson?
If Mark and Powers are starting in February, something has gone either very right, or very wrong
Jefferson is the person this thread is supposed to be about.
So many comments ...
1) In re PSAL: Davis actually played 23 mpg as a freshman, 18 mpg last season as a sophomore, not 18 mpg as a freshman. He was notably better offensively in those fewer minutes last season (not sure it was BECAUSE of the fewer minutes, though it might have been): Oddly enough, same overall FG% each year, but worse 2-point FG% combined with a sharp increase in 3-point FG% and a nice increase in FT% (from 52% to 65%) ... on a per 40 minute basis, Davis took fewer 2-point FG and 50% more 3-ppint FG's ... but his biggest improvement was taking care of the ball, sharply improving his assist to turnover ratio from 1.4 to 1 as a freshman, to 3.4 to 1 as a sophomore ... huge. His per 40 minute foul rate went up pretty sharply - probably an indication of less good defense (could not and did not defend as well without fouling last year - need that to reverse).
2) In re NJHawk: It would horrify me if Francis averaged 18-22 minutes per game. And mean, probably, RU may not even win 10 games. For perspective: Playing behind a top 5 NBA pick, and a top 15 Biug 10 player - and arguably one fo the 5 best PG's in the country, in Harper, averaged 18 mpg ... Derkack, who as a sophomore in the NEC (same as Francis was in the AEC), and a better player (after all he was player of the year and defensive player of the year in the NEC, while Francis was not even on 1 of the AEC's top 3 All Conference team - in other words not considered one of the 15 best players in that equally bad conference) averaged just 17 mpg for RU . Here is what might happen to a player like Francis at RU - look at Derkack as perhaps a perfect example - here are his stats:
a) Overall: 17 mpg, 36% FG, 25% 3-point FG, 42.5% 2-point FG, 73.5% FT, 2.7 rpg, 1.5 ***/g, 1.3 TO/g, ***/TO ratio of 1.14 to 1
b) OOC (12 games): 22 mpg, 36.5% FG, 15% 3-point FG (crazy - 3-20), 46.5% 2-point FG, 73% FT, 4.4 rpg, 2.7 ***/g, 1,.25 TO/g, ***/TO ratio of 2.1 to 1
c) Big 10 games (21 games - with big 10 tourney): 12.6 mpg, 36% FG, 33% 3-point FG (8-24), 38% 2-point FG, 73% FT, 1.65 rpg, 0.8 ***/g, 1.35 TO/g, NEGATIOVE ***/TO ratio
d) Big 10 without the crazy MSU game (where he was 7-11 FG, 4-7 3-pt FG and 8-9 FT): 20 games: 11.9 mpg, 30% FG, 23.5% 3-point FG, 33% 2-point FG, 71% FT, 1.5 rpg, 0.7 ***/g, 1.2 TO/game, horrible negative ***/TO ratio
I would emphasize how Derkack's TURNOVERS sky-rocketed when he entered Big 10 play, while his assists PLUMMETTED and his assist to turnover ratio went from a rather good 2.1 to 1 in OOC play to 0.6 to 1 NEGATIVE ration in Big 10 play ... and his 2-point shooting and rebounding also dropped materially - even if you would look at it on a per minute basis (even if Derkack played the same minutes vs Big 10 teams as he did in OOC, - on a per minute basis his Big 10 equivalent rebounds were just 2.9 rpg (vs 4.4 rpg OOC), 1.4 ***/g (vs 2.7 ***/g OOC), etc., etc., etc.
3) In re NJHawk - and should Francis average 18-22 mpg ... Noah Fernandes did average 20 mpg for RU, after starting for UMass (though he did miss mots of his JR season due to injury): He averaged 6.4 ppg, 1.6 ***/g, 1.1 turnovers per game. overall But in Big 10 play he averaged just 15 mpg, 5 ppg and 1.2 ***/g - though in fairness he also shot better from 3-point range in Big 10 play (40% vs 35% overall) - took fewer shots, forced fewer shots, role changed?
My point is: Francis should not be playing 18-22 mpg - nor have been promised by Knight and Pikiell he'd be the "alpha" and likely the starting PG ... and if he is playing more than 8-10 mpg RU seems likely to be even worse than many of us expect. I am FINE with Francis being a 8-10 mpg guy ... but not more, and not for the price of NIL RU has supposedly spent on him.
I would add that in essentially the same minutes last year, Davis averaged just 1 ppg fewer than Derkakc, and shot a better FG%, better 3-point FG%, more ***/g, MANY fewer TO/g, more rpg, more steals/g. And Davis, in slightly more mpg than Fernandes, actually shot better from FG% overall, and way better 2-point FG% - though much worse 3-point FG%, scored fewer ppg by less than 1 ppg, had more rpg, more ***/g, more steals/g ... and was a much better defensive player. I would argue Davis was better than Fernandes in 2023-24 and better than Derkack in 2024-25 - and both Fernandes and Derkack are better - and will prove to have been better - than Francis is likely to be.
4) In re Dortch - if he can gain 25 pounds without losing his quickness and quick leaping athleticism, he MIGHT be able to play SOME Center defensively - I think he actually may be a legitimate 6'10" - he was clearly 1" to 2" taller than Bailey, FYI.
1) In re PSAL: Davis actually played 23 mpg as a freshman, 18 mpg last season as a sophomore, not 18 mpg as a freshman. He was notably better offensively in those fewer minutes last season (not sure it was BECAUSE of the fewer minutes, though it might have been): Oddly enough, same overall FG% each year, but worse 2-point FG% combined with a sharp increase in 3-point FG% and a nice increase in FT% (from 52% to 65%) ... on a per 40 minute basis, Davis took fewer 2-point FG and 50% more 3-ppint FG's ... but his biggest improvement was taking care of the ball, sharply improving his assist to turnover ratio from 1.4 to 1 as a freshman, to 3.4 to 1 as a sophomore ... huge. His per 40 minute foul rate went up pretty sharply - probably an indication of less good defense (could not and did not defend as well without fouling last year - need that to reverse).
2) In re NJHawk: It would horrify me if Francis averaged 18-22 minutes per game. And mean, probably, RU may not even win 10 games. For perspective: Playing behind a top 5 NBA pick, and a top 15 Biug 10 player - and arguably one fo the 5 best PG's in the country, in Harper, averaged 18 mpg ... Derkack, who as a sophomore in the NEC (same as Francis was in the AEC), and a better player (after all he was player of the year and defensive player of the year in the NEC, while Francis was not even on 1 of the AEC's top 3 All Conference team - in other words not considered one of the 15 best players in that equally bad conference) averaged just 17 mpg for RU . Here is what might happen to a player like Francis at RU - look at Derkack as perhaps a perfect example - here are his stats:
a) Overall: 17 mpg, 36% FG, 25% 3-point FG, 42.5% 2-point FG, 73.5% FT, 2.7 rpg, 1.5 ***/g, 1.3 TO/g, ***/TO ratio of 1.14 to 1
b) OOC (12 games): 22 mpg, 36.5% FG, 15% 3-point FG (crazy - 3-20), 46.5% 2-point FG, 73% FT, 4.4 rpg, 2.7 ***/g, 1,.25 TO/g, ***/TO ratio of 2.1 to 1
c) Big 10 games (21 games - with big 10 tourney): 12.6 mpg, 36% FG, 33% 3-point FG (8-24), 38% 2-point FG, 73% FT, 1.65 rpg, 0.8 ***/g, 1.35 TO/g, NEGATIOVE ***/TO ratio
d) Big 10 without the crazy MSU game (where he was 7-11 FG, 4-7 3-pt FG and 8-9 FT): 20 games: 11.9 mpg, 30% FG, 23.5% 3-point FG, 33% 2-point FG, 71% FT, 1.5 rpg, 0.7 ***/g, 1.2 TO/game, horrible negative ***/TO ratio
I would emphasize how Derkack's TURNOVERS sky-rocketed when he entered Big 10 play, while his assists PLUMMETTED and his assist to turnover ratio went from a rather good 2.1 to 1 in OOC play to 0.6 to 1 NEGATIVE ration in Big 10 play ... and his 2-point shooting and rebounding also dropped materially - even if you would look at it on a per minute basis (even if Derkack played the same minutes vs Big 10 teams as he did in OOC, - on a per minute basis his Big 10 equivalent rebounds were just 2.9 rpg (vs 4.4 rpg OOC), 1.4 ***/g (vs 2.7 ***/g OOC), etc., etc., etc.
3) In re NJHawk - and should Francis average 18-22 mpg ... Noah Fernandes did average 20 mpg for RU, after starting for UMass (though he did miss mots of his JR season due to injury): He averaged 6.4 ppg, 1.6 ***/g, 1.1 turnovers per game. overall But in Big 10 play he averaged just 15 mpg, 5 ppg and 1.2 ***/g - though in fairness he also shot better from 3-point range in Big 10 play (40% vs 35% overall) - took fewer shots, forced fewer shots, role changed?
My point is: Francis should not be playing 18-22 mpg - nor have been promised by Knight and Pikiell he'd be the "alpha" and likely the starting PG ... and if he is playing more than 8-10 mpg RU seems likely to be even worse than many of us expect. I am FINE with Francis being a 8-10 mpg guy ... but not more, and not for the price of NIL RU has supposedly spent on him.
I would add that in essentially the same minutes last year, Davis averaged just 1 ppg fewer than Derkakc, and shot a better FG%, better 3-point FG%, more ***/g, MANY fewer TO/g, more rpg, more steals/g. And Davis, in slightly more mpg than Fernandes, actually shot better from FG% overall, and way better 2-point FG% - though much worse 3-point FG%, scored fewer ppg by less than 1 ppg, had more rpg, more ***/g, more steals/g ... and was a much better defensive player. I would argue Davis was better than Fernandes in 2023-24 and better than Derkack in 2024-25 - and both Fernandes and Derkack are better - and will prove to have been better - than Francis is likely to be.
4) In re Dortch - if he can gain 25 pounds without losing his quickness and quick leaping athleticism, he MIGHT be able to play SOME Center defensively - I think he actually may be a legitimate 6'10" - he was clearly 1" to 2" taller than Bailey, FYI.
Haha, thanks, not on team yet, couldn't figure it out! That's my stupid for the day.
Thanks for the correction on Davis’ minutes. 23 minutes on a 15 win BIG team as a frosh. Yeah - I get it that for us 15-17 sucks, but sucking is a relative term. That team was closer to being a tournament team than it was to being a 6 win American East team. A lot closer. I think some are losing sight of how terrible Francis’ team was. This is a comparison to the team Agee played for. Except it’s actually worse because Francis took all the shots and piled up a pound of points in a bunch of blow out losses that mean nothing.
Where did you hear that we actually paid a sizable bag to Francis? Is that just the Richie speculation or was something more reported? I don’t see how we could’ve offered more than maybe a couple thousand or so bucks more than Pepperdine did if they were his only offer. In all seriousness - Rutgers is a non-profit so I’d assume with the money coming from us right now and not a legitimate NIL deal, we’d be careful
To avoid obvious conflicts of interest being that it’s publicly known that he is Brandon’s close family friend. I can’t imagine we’re paying him hundreds of thousands more than anyone else offered.
$$ reported are premium info fr the round table about which it would be inappropriate for me to reveal the details. Notice I gave been very careful not to specify the $$ that have been reported on the round table on this board. I am not saying they are accurate, but that premium info is the only info out there at all
I actually, horrifyingly, infer that info is correct, partly based o. The track record of the person reporting it (while not perfect, pretty good), and based on a recent interview Francis gave where he was quoted as saying the RU staff (read: Knight, and maybe Pikiell) brought him in to be the "alpha". Which I interpret means to start. And since it us obvious RU is still.looking for a stsrting 2G in the portal, I infer he may have been "promised" the starting PG spot. Or perhaps Francis THINKS he was made that promise. Maybe he only thinks that, since if he had been and I were Davis, and I thought a non-pg with awful PG skills and little defense had been brought in to be the starting PG, I'd think seriously about entering the portal. Which he has not yet done so.
Lsdtly, I never mentioned Pepperdine, which.may also be premium info, or maybe mentioned on this Board. But if so, remember that none of these offers are truly public - not until.the revenue sharing goes into effect at which time I think much becomes public, so the real.nsrkrt may become more visible then not. Meaning normally, RU would not know what a school.like Pepperdine offered... It is in the interest of the player to not reveal that so a team is forced to bid against itself, basically. You would like to think Knight, as a close family friend, would know the truth... But did he? And if he did, but still bid 50% or 100% more... Well... Ouch...
Richie threw out a suggestion that he had to be making at least 350k on the podcast. Those guys didn’t seem to know anything for sure though. Pepperdine was reported in a few places as his only other offer. We wouldn’t have hard information about that offer but the point is, being it was his only one, it could not be reasonably assumed that he’s worth a sum like this. Nobody else seemed to want him.
Of course he is not worth that amount - which does not mean RU did not pay that amount, or more ... it is not unheard of for teams to overpay, after all. Especially in a "blind" ,auction where you do not know for sure the other bids. I do not think he is "worth" more than $100K, as a deep reserve, playing 8-10 mpg. But it seems like RU is willing to pay him the so-called "value" as a potential starting PG.
I would add the # you cited above is consistent - though a comment was made that it actually was probably more (yes, that was what was posted in response to one of my Round Table posts analyzing the available revenue sharing and NIL available to RU, and the possible strategy RU could or should follow).
And there WAS an interview with Francis in which Francis DID state the RU coaching staff told him they were looking for him to be the "alpha." Ugh ...
The money for all players seems outlandish but it’s the new normal. The way I choose to look at it is this:
If we spend $5,000,000 on our primary 10 players, and they were all close in caliber (no 5- stars) and all played 20 minutes per game, then the average investment would be $500,000 for a 20-minute player.
So, if Francis gets $350,000 then he is getting 30% less than the average to play 20 minutes.
I know it’s not the reality, but it’s the way I choose to think about it.
Well... I choose to think of it like by paying $200k to $250k MORE than RU should have (I.e. By paying $350k to $400k), RU cannot pay an extra $200k-$250k to a good 2G. So instead of getting a $1 million or more 2G, RU may only have $750k... Thus won't get a 2G with length who could defend, create his own shot and hit the 3 and have the potential to average 14-15 ppg for RU.
Even if RU has the $$ to average $500k per player for 10 players, you do NOT want 10 $500k players. You then risk having ZERO players who are legit Big 10 starters unless a FR or two develop into Big 10 starters. But anyway, RU is going yo have 13 scholarship.players, do $5 million is divided by 13, not 10... So an average of about $375k per player. Which means Francis was not only not paid at a discount to his value in the portal, but is not even at a discount to the "average" RU player.
This is the type of roster management that NBA/professional front offices have been doing forever.
While everyone has the same budget/salary cap in the NBA - they also have guaranteed multi year contracts.
When a team is “stuck” with an expensive non-usable player (such as Ben Simmons), they have to get creative to fill out the roster.
Rutgers is in a similar situation with less money than peers and needing to get creative.
The new GM needs to have experience with roster building and asset allocation on that level.
And the HC (Pike or whomever) has to be willing to give up ultimate control of the program and utilize the help they need.
Initial remarks by HC Pike seem to indicate he doesn’t think he needs any help with roster management and asset allocation.
I agree with these sentiments in general, and in particular I also agree that, at $350k, Francis appears to be overpaid. I’m not defending it, but only making the point that every college player appears to be vastly overpaid these days.
And yes, I know that we’re likely going to be paying 13 scholarship players (even though we only had 12 this year), but there’s no way the 11th, 12th, and 13th players will be making anywhere near an average of $375k. Maybe $50k, tops.
IMO, there is more likelihood that we will have 10 guys averaging around $500k, some a little more and some a little less, but honestly, I’ll be (pleasantly) shocked if we bring in even one guy that makes $1 million.
We’ll see.
Here’s an example of how it could play out, assuming we have a $5,000,000 player budget:
#1 starter: $1,000,000
#2 starter: 800,000
#3 starter: 600,000
#4 starter: 500,000
#5 starter: 500,000
6th man: 450,000
7th man: 350,000
8th man: 250,000
9th man: 200,000
10th man: 200,000
Deep bench: 50,000
Deep bench: 50,000
Deep bench: 50,000
In this scenario, if Francis turns out to be our 7th man, at $350k, it would make sense. If he turns out to be a productive starter, then we got a bargain. And if he winds up 8th or worse, then we overpaid.
This is how I see it, in context of the entire player budget and how it’s ultimately allocated.
Whether we overpaid or got a bargain on any individual player won’t be known until the season plays out.
#1 starter: $1,000,000
#2 starter: 800,000
#3 starter: 600,000
#4 starter: 500,000
#5 starter: 500,000
6th man: 450,000
7th man: 350,000
8th man: 250,000
9th man: 200,000
10th man: 200,000
Deep bench: 50,000
Deep bench: 50,000
Deep bench: 50,000
In this scenario, if Francis turns out to be our 7th man, at $350k, it would make sense. If he turns out to be a productive starter, then we got a bargain. And if he winds up 8th or worse, then we overpaid.
This is how I see it, in context of the entire player budget and how it’s ultimately allocated.
Whether we overpaid or got a bargain on any individual player won’t be known until the season plays out.
Send this post to Rutgers as your GM application!
That basically how we need to do it.
People will say "but then we are screwed if we cheap out on deep bench/walk on level and there is an injury."
We're screwed anyway if we need to play our 10th - 13th players.
Were we somehow safe if Chol and Jalen Miller needed to play heavy minutes?
Totally out of touch with the market. Most high major starters are getting between $500k - $1.5m. So $350k would be cheap. We know Buchanan is getting $400k, can’t see Francis getting less when they want him to be the “alpha” per the coaches comments on his visit.
See my subsequent post.
Francis is not a high major starter (yet), and at $350k would only be “cheap” if he becomes a productive starter for us. Anything less than the 7th man on the floor and we would have overpaid, imo.
If he is inefficient on offense and can’t defend well enough to stay on the floor against B1G competition, then there’s no way he’ll be an alpha player for us.
I hope it works out but it remains to be seen.
All of that is fine but 35% from 3 is still 35% from 3, when you have that many attempts
I guess we will see how wrong you will be on Francis....but i again already have penciled in Mark as the better player, so if Francis DOES play 18 to 22 minutes a game it will be because.......
A) JMike does not make the necessary jump in his 3rd year in the program and 3rd year in the B1G
B) RU doesn't find a better SG than Powers, who I also think is better than Francis.....
C) Francis outplayed your expectations, which means he outplays BOTH JMike Davis if Davis DOES improve across the board.
There are too many variables going against you and you assessment of Francis, you're more likely to be 1000% wrong than right.
In terms of "if Francis plays 18 to 22 minutes a game", that RU will win 10 games....that won't be because of Francis playing, it will be because JMike fell apart and literally everyone else on the roster, is underachieving by a LOT......you have to be god-awful to not win 10 games, like Seton Hall 2024-25 this past season. I don't see that happening for RU in 2025-26.
Francis is not going into the season as the starting PG ahead of JDavis, unless we plan on winning 3-4 Big 10 games.
No - it doesn’t work like that. This isn’t a job in the traditional sense of the new pay transparency laws requiring a range to be posted for a specific position. The “market” is driven (or at least outside of potential favors to friends) should be driven by supply and demand. In this case - what was NJIT willing to pay Francis to keep him there. And what was another team willing to pay to land him. If nobody else was willing to give him $150k and we think we’ve found a hidden gem- the “market” is $160k - in effect, just enough more than the next offer to secure him. You don’t pay $350k simply because that’s what other power teams paid for their 7th man. Thats ridiculous.
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Well ... I disagree with both your desired allocations - and with your statement I bolded. Let me start with the bolded statement. Based on my understanding of the Francis situation, as reported (I have no inside information), Francis may be being brought in to start at PG. So you missed the most likely scenario: RU got Francis "cheap" for a starting PG - but he is awful as a PG ... but still starts. In that case ANY $$ allocated ot him above $100K is wasted $$ that could have been used elsewhere to better effect.
In re the allocation, you are starting at the worng point. You should not start with the $5 million - no one has any idea what the 4 (or 5 if RU gets Jefferson) are getting, nor what the retention of the 4 returning players cost. Let;s say the frosh and the retention cost $1.5 million.
Your starting point is then actually $3.5 million, not $5 million ... assuming RU even HAS $5 million. And of that $3.5 million, $1 million is from the upcoming participation in the Vegas NIL tourney. There are conflicting reports on how the Vegas $$ are shared. A number of reports indicate the $1 million may be split evenly amongst all scholarship players ($77K per player, 13 scholarship players) - and would NOT be available for paying portal transfers.
This might mean RU has just $2.5 million for the desired 4 portal players:
Buchanan - DK - $400K? $500K?
Francis - not 100% sure, but seems that $400K is very possible - could be a little less, or a little more.
This leaves 2 players to be obtained ... and $1.7 million left. Here is the problem with that math: You apparently cannot get even a no-score rim-protecting center for less than $1 million. And you cannot get a starting 2G with length, the ability to defend, and to score both from mid-range and form 3, who might have the potential to lead RU ins coring (maybe 14-15 ppg) for less than $1 million, probably. But you are $300 -$400K short of being able to spend $1 million each on a center and a 2G.
And THAT is the mistake of paying Francis: It costs you either a starting center or a starting 2G. THAT is your trade off.
What SHOULD have happened:
1) After its retention $$ commitments, RU should have focused on obtaining TWO starters, 1 at center and 1 at 2G - THAT is where RU's freshmen and returning players are unable to contribute. Sure, maybe the staff does not think Davis is a starter at PG - or that Lino Mark is not ready yet ... but at least both PLAY the PG position. RU literally has ZERO 2G's other than a truly development mode Powers ... none ... and RU has only Ogbole and the raw incoming Ware at center - not enough to play the defense Pikiell wants to play.
2) So what RU SHOULD have done was allocate $2 million of its available $2.5 million to TWO players: a $1 million center and a $1 million 2G.
3) Add Buchanan as well - I think his skills could translate to be a #2 or #3 scorer for RU in the Big 10 (10-11 ppg).
4) Use the scrap heaps to add 2 very low priced situational specialists at Guard (perhaps a 8 mpg shooter), and at forward (an 6-8 mpg defender). You may only have $50K each for these players. And Francis is not one of them.
Your starting line-up might look like:
C - Rim protector portal transfer ($1 million)
PF - Grant
WF - Buchanan ($300K - $400K?)
2G - 14+ ppg portal transfer ($1 million)
PG - J. Davis (or Mark if he passes him at some point)
Bench:
#1 - Nwuli - at WF can sub for either Buchanan or Grant)
#2 - Mark - or J. Davis, whoever is not starting - sub at PG and 2G
#3 - Ogbole sub at center
#4 - Dortch - defensive specialist at PF and WF - and if he gains 25+ pounds of muscle, at Center also
#5 - Powers OR Portal shooting specialist ($100K)
#6 - Portal transfer specialist at WF/PF - defensive guy ($100K)
#7 - Portal shooting specialist or Powers
#8 - Ware
lion, I appreciate all the detail in your analysis. What concerns me is that we won’t be able to land any players that are worthy of $1million, even at today’s market rates.
Think about it, if someone can get $1 million from Rutgers, they could likely get at least $1.2 million from a team with deeper pockets and a better outlook for making it to the big dance.
The only way RU could land a guy for $1million, imo, is because no other team would offer more than 800 or 900k, and RU would offer, I assume, the opportunity for more playing time.
So in other words, we have to overpay (and likely over-promise playing time) to get the best players to commit. I hope I’m wrong, but that’s the way I see it.
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Yes - exactly this.
However, I’m actually starting to resign to the reality that a center whose actually a guarantee to help us might cost closer to $2M. This doesn’t change the core of your argument though, and if anything bolsters it. If bringing in a viable center is cost prohibitive, Pike needs to recruit and plan to play a style that’s less reliant on a traditional rim protector. But either way - we need 2 players as you said - one post player along with a guard with length. 350k would go a long way to inprove what we can get.
Even if that’s true - Lion’s point still stands. I’d rather overpay for someone who is close to a lock to be able to help us than overpaying an extreme long shot.
What if Pike is confident he’ll have $5million to work with (let’s say $3M from revenue share, $1M from NIL and $1M from Vegas tourney)?
In that case he may have reasonably budgeted $350k for the 7th man, which he projects Francis to be.
Knowing Pike, he may have budgeted $1M for a rim protector, which he seems to be stubborn about overpaying for. Same with getting another key portal addition, likely a guard, for whom he may have budgeted say, $800k.
I don’t think Pike can wrap his head around paying $2M, or 40% of his entire budget, on one player.
NJIT won only 6 games, playing a schedule of some of the worst teams in the country . . .
If that’s the case - it’s just plain irrational. In paper, Francis isn’t worth close to $350K because no other team would pay him that. If Francis has his pride and prefers not to join a major conference team for the 100K he’s actually worth, that’s his choice. Let him make 50K and stay at NJIT or whatever they can afford. But paying someone more than anyone else would based on their scouting report is simply stupid. I really hope we just have the information wrong. Even if Francis proves everyone wrong and is a star. It’s still wrong. Suppy and demand dictate the market. Period. On some teams like Rutgers, having individual stats despite the team failing doesn’t hurt your individual stock. When your team only wins 6 games for NJIT that alone holds you back big time. Anyone worth anything at a major conference level should be able to single handedly help a team like that not be as awful as they were. Especially a guard who had the ball in his hands most of the time.
Francis may or may not be worth that amount, but if Pike has $5 million to spend, and he budgeted $350k for the 7th man (which I believe Francis will be), I wouldn’t say that’s irrational.
Also, how do we know for sure that Francis couldn’t have gotten as much from another school? Yes, NJIT sucked and played in a lousy conference, but at least he was the leading scorer in that conference, as a sophomore.
Also, NJIT played most of their games away from home (17 road, 1 neutral) and one of those road games was at GW, where he had 20 points, 9 assists, and 3 rebounds which was very comparable to our other portal get, Buchanan, who had 20 points, 6 assists and 4 rebounds.
So, I’m not suggesting he’ll be a starter like Buchanan, although he could earn that role, but as a 7th man he would be fairly compensated, imo.
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