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Bacatology 3/10: NCAA Tournament Analysis

bac2therac

bac2therac

Hall of Famer
Jul 30, 2001
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Morning update


ONE SEEDS: Auburn*, Duke*, Houston*, Florida

TWO SEEDS: Alabama, Tennessee, Michigan State*, St John's*

THREE SEEDS: Kentucky, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Iowa State

FOUR SEEDS: Purdue, Wisconsin, Clemson, Arizona

FIVE SEEDS: Maryland, Oregon, Mississippi, UCLA

SIX SEEDS: Michigan, Missouri, Louisville, Gonzaga

SEVEN SEEDS: St Mary’s, Illinois, BYU, Kansas

EIGHT SEEDS: Marquette, Memphis*, Connecticut, New Mexico*

NINE SEEDS: Creighton, Mississippi State, Utah State, Oklahoma

TEN SEEDS: Drake*, Georgia, Arkansas, Baylor

ELEVEN SEEDS: Vanderbilt, West Virginia, VCU*, San Diego State/North Carolina

TWELVE SEEDS: Texas/Indiana, UC San Diego*,Liberty*, McNeese State*

THIRTEEN SEEDS: Yale*, High Point*, Akron*, Lipscomb*

FOURTEEN SEEDS: Troy*, Utah Valley State*, UNC Wilmington*, Montana*

FIFTEEN SEEDS: Wofford*, Robert Morris*, Omaha*, Bryant*

SIXTEEN SEEDS: Norfolk State*, SIUE*, Quinnipiac*/American*, St Francis*/Jackson State*



LAST 4 IN: INDIANA,TEXAS, NORTH CAROLINA, SAN DIEGO STATE

FIRST 4 OUT: XAVIER, BOISE STATE, DAYTON, NEBRASKA

NEXT 4 OUT: COLORADO STATE, WAKE FOREST, UC IRVINE, OHIO STATE,

OTHERS: SMU, GEORGE MASON, VILLANOVA
 
G

G- RUnit

All-American
Sep 13, 2004
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TDIrish27 said:
Who do you see in the Big Ten winning 2 in the NCAA's besides Sparty ?
Click to expand...
I think B1G might be underrated.
A healthy Illinois, Maryland and Purdue when they are on could easily win two.
Wiscy is perplexing.
I think Michigan should be better than they are.
 
bac2therac

bac2therac

Hall of Famer
Jul 30, 2001
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IMPACT GAMES


ACC

North Carolina is likely to secure a bid if they can take down Duke in the ACC semis. A loss probably puts them out but not necessarily when the dust settles
Clemson/Louisville playing for NCAA seeding in the other ACC semis


AAC

Memphis is the projected AQ and a loss to Wichita State ion the AAC quarterfinals will make this a two bid league. The Tigers need to win the conference tourney if they have any hope of escaping the 8/9 line.


ATLANTIC 10

VCU must take care of St Bonaventure in the A10 quarters if they want to keep their so so at large hopes alive if they do not win the A10 tourney.
Dayton must beat St Joe's in their quarterfinal matchup if they want to keep any realistic hope of an at large.
George Mason is waaaaaaaaaay out on the fringes of the bubble and a win over George Washington would not change that.


BIG 12

Houston has wrapped up a #1 seed regardles of the outcome of their semifinal matchup with BYU.
BYU may be able to bump to the 6 seed line with a win here and possibly a 5 if they win the Big 12 tourney.
Texas Tech has likely secured a 3 seed with an outside chance of a 2 if they can win the Big 12 tourney so they will need to beat Arizona.
Arizona is straddling the the 4/5 line and win here could put them into that protected 4 seed depending on Big 10 tourney results


BIG EAST

St John's needs to be Marquette if they want to strengthen their case as the final 2 seed.
Marquette, UConn, Creighton all on the 8-9 line need to win the Big East tourney to get them off those lines and onto the 7.


BIG 10

Michigan State has wrapped up a 2 seed regardless of the outcome of their quarterfinal matchup with Oregon
Oregon straddling that 4/5 line would bump to that protected 4 seed with a win over Michigan State.
Wisconsin profile has been slipping of late and any chance of getting back to a 3 seed rests with getting to the Big 10 finals. Not out of the question that a loss to UCLA could drop them to a 5.
UCLA is straddling the 5/6 line but nothing less than a Big 10 tourney title could move them to a 4.
Maryland is straddling the 4/5 so getting a win today over Illinois could mean a protected 4 seed.
Illinois getting a bit squeezed out in the very close 5-7 seed race as they are projected a 7 but could improve on that by defeating Maryland and then winning tomorrow to reach the Big 10 tourney finals.
Purdue needs to beat Michigan to solidify their protected 4 seed.
Michigan profile has been sinking and have dropped to a 6 so beating Purdue is a step in the right direction to get back to a 5.


BIG WEST

UC San Diego needs to beat Cal St Barbara to make the best case for an at large if they do not win the Big West Tourney. Do note that they accrued a 2nd Q3 loss this morning as Cal Riverside slipped into that grouping.
UC Irvine has moved up into the next 4 out grouping for the first and needs to beat Cal Poly to reach the BW finals. A loss here would end any realistic hopes.


MOUNTAIN WEST

Boise State needs to beat New Mexico to possibly vault into the field which is no guarantee. A loss likely leaves them just on the outside pending full scrub on Sunday morning.
New Mexico currently stradding the 8/9 line can possibly move to a 7 by winning the Mountain West Tournament
Colorado State must beat Utah State to keep any hopes they have alive but more than likely their hopes rest with winning the Mountain West Tourney outright.


SEC

Auburn is locked in as the overall #1 seed regardless of the outcome of their game with Ole Miss.
Mississippi has been moving up the seed line and could affirm their currently precarious spot on the 5 with a victory over Auburn
Texas has moved into the field for now but may have to beat Tennessee to remain there. Hard to say if the Longhorn run is actually making a difference or did the committee dismiss them before the SEC began. Big uncertainty!
Tennessee must defeat Texas to keep any slim hopes alive for a #1 seed
Florida must beat Missouri to remain in the drivers seat for the last #1 seed.
Missouri needs to win to fortify their seeding along the 6 line
Alabama must beat Kentucky to keep their #1 seed hopes alive.
Kentucky must beat Alabama to keep their hopes alive to grab that final #2 seed.
 
bac2therac

bac2therac

Hall of Famer
Jul 30, 2001
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TDIrish27 said:
Who do you see in the Big Ten winning 2 in the NCAA's besides Sparty ?
Click to expand...
given the right matchups all of them can but I think Maryland and Oregon are well equipped and we might actually see two Big 10 schools playing in the 2nd round as it might be unavoidable with so many crowded on the 4-5 line.

On their best days, Wisconsin/Purdue/UCLA can all be Sweet 16 teams. I dont we have had as many legit schools from the Big 10 that could make runs in recent years. This year there is a shot. Illinois is so hot and cold and Underwood has underperformed in the NCAA tourney. Michigan is an enigma but dont discount having 2 bigs is a touch matchup. Across the board the schools through the 8 seeds are all very tough and hard to seperate. I mean Memphis had an excellent non conferenc performance and are down at 8 because some bad AAC losses but even as a 7 that is a tough out. Look at UConn being an 8.

I think 2 possible frauds are Clemson and Louisville both tough to seed. If the committee was watching last night, they would be questioning both. I think Clemson might pull off a 4 seed unfortunately and Auburn licking their chops. In general the ACC is terrible. One great team, a few nice teams and then complete garbage...there were too many schools anyhow and then they added to Cal schools which really makes zero sense at all...could you shed light on why
 
bac2therac

bac2therac

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Jul 30, 2001
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I moved Xavier out of the field and Texas in. I have Indiana as last team in and you know I do not want them getting a bid....4-13 vs Q1 and 2-10 vs the field with 4 losses to non tourney schools. I know UNC is 1-11 in Q1 and 1-9 vs the field but at least they played a tough schedule but I am also keeping in mind Bubba and the push to have a 4th ACC school rather than a 4th Mountain West or a 14th SEC

Very close for me between Xavier and Indiana...neither did anything OOC. Thats why I give the edge to Texas even with their bulky loss total soon to be 15....7-11 in Q1 and 7-14 vs the field...have not lose one game to a school not in the tournament. Will their be a cap on the SEC? Is 14 schools out of 16 going to be tolerated?

A school like WVU has lost 5 to non tourney school as they are just 4-8 vs the field. I dont particularly like both theirs and Baylor 4-11 vs field, 12-14 in Q1/2/3

Watch for the AAC for the bid stealer.
 
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bac2therac

bac2therac

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Jul 30, 2001
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Bracketology involves a little guess work of how the committee things.....If I were on the committee here is what I would do with last 4 in and last 4 out

LAST 4 IN: UC IRVINE, XAVIER, TEXAS, BAYLOR

FIRST 5 OUT: BOISE STATE, INDIANA, NORTH CAROLINA, COLORADO STATE, DAYTON
 
D

dconifer0

All-Conference
Oct 4, 2004
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bac2therac said:
IMPACT GAMES

Maryland is straddling the 4/5 so getting a win today over Illinois could mean a protected 4 seed.
Click to expand...
I'm not hopeful about beating a fully-loaded (unlike last time) Illinois team. But 5th seed is good enough for this Terp fan...
 
B

Bayonnebomber79

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I know it’s a loooong shot, but I would love to see St. Joes run the table in the A10 and steal a bid. Besides seeing Simpson in the tourny, they have a very good team with lots of talent. They are fun to watch and could make some noise. I’ll be watching them tonight against Dayton. More than likely tho they are NIT bound,
 
bac2therac

bac2therac

Hall of Famer
Jul 30, 2001
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dconifer said:
I'm not hopeful about beating a fully-loaded (unlike last time) Illinois team. But 5th seed is good enough for this Terp fan...
Click to expand...
there is that small chance Maryland wins the whole thing and gets a 3 but its pretty small
 
bac2therac

bac2therac

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Jul 30, 2001
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VCU putting the finishing touches over St Bonnies and will advance to the A10 semis.

More convinced the more I study VCU resume that they MUST win the A10 tourney to get a bid.

sorry but 11-5 soon to be 12-5 in Q1/2/3 does not cut it...zero wins vs field..best win Dayton..nothing OOC besdes nice win over Colorado State and they have a Quad 4 loss to Seton Hall, but even worse is that they are 13-1 in Q4...to play 14 games in Quad 4 for a very high mid major is unconscionable...non conference sos of 280...sorry their profile is trash, I dont care if they look good now....nit type team
 
M

MiamiWolv

Heisman
Nov 2, 2006
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bac2therac said:
send it into double overtime

Some say its the best day of the year
Click to expand...

Tonight is insane if you like college basketball.

7 ranked matchups from 630 until 930

Florida/Missouri, Kentucky/Alabama, Marquette/SJU, Clemson/Louisville, BYU/Houston, Michigan/Purdue, Ill/MD

And that doesn't even include Duke/UNC, CT/Creighton or Zona/TT.
 
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M

MiamiWolv

Heisman
Nov 2, 2006
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bac2therac said:
there is that small chance Maryland wins the whole thing and gets a 3 but its pretty small
Click to expand...

If Michigan beats Purdue and MD (not counting on it), would they get back to 4 line? That would be like 11Q1 wins and no loss outside of Q2.
 
bac2therac

bac2therac

Hall of Famer
Jul 30, 2001
252,686
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MiamiWolv said:
If Michigan beats Purdue and MD (not counting on it), would they get back to 4 line? That would be like 11Q1 wins and no loss outside of Q2.
Click to expand...
maybe....their net is now down to 30 and SOR/WAB at 29/34 now are not good signs. Past 2 weeks their profile slipped while those around them in a very crowded area rose.

Certainly helped out by Oregon losing today, will be helped out if UCLA and Illinois also lose. I could see them get back to 5 not sure about 4, I think Purdue/MD in better shape for those spots even if Michigan beats them

Michigan as a 6 that wouldnt want to face Drake as an 11...but then as a 5 they wouldnt want to face a Mc Neese or UC San Diego either.
 
M

MiamiWolv

Heisman
Nov 2, 2006
13,451
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bac2therac said:
maybe....their net is now down to 30 and SOR/WAB at 29/34 now are not good signs. Past 2 weeks their profile slipped while those around them in a very crowded area rose.

Certainly helped out by Oregon losing today, will be helped out if UCLA and Illinois also lose. I could see them get back to 5 not sure about 4, I think Purdue/MD in better shape for those spots even if Michigan beats them

Michigan as a 6 that wouldnt want to face Drake as an 11...but then as a 5 they wouldnt want to face a Mc Neese or UC San Diego either.
Click to expand...
Yeah I’m more happy they avoided USC and a bad loss.

I’d rather draw a mediocre power five like Texas or West Virginia that barely made it in and the season has shown us is pretty average.

Better shot to do that as a 11 where the 5 almost certainly gets the best of the mid majors
 
bac2therac

bac2therac

Hall of Famer
Jul 30, 2001
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Michigan State takes care of Oregon

Auburn bears Ole Miss in a close one

Wisconsin up big over UCLA now in 2nd half.

Its funny how seeding issues resolve in the last week and its likely the spot you originally had for these schools was the one they are likely to get

I don't see Oregon as a 4. UCLA more a 6. Wisconsin affirming a strong 4 with shot at 3.
 
bac2therac

bac2therac

Hall of Famer
Jul 30, 2001
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Texas losing touch with Tennessee. With a loss Texas right on the cut line either way
 
bac2therac

bac2therac

Hall of Famer
Jul 30, 2001
252,686
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Duke wins 74-71

North Carolina is now 1-12 in Quad 1

There is no way they should get in...hear that Bubba
 
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