Bacatology 3/10: NCAA Tournament Analysis

[toby83]

Check out St Francis last six games (wins), must be cool under pressure!

 

[bac2therac]

Considering that the bubble seems as weak as it is this year, I am thinking the committee might change it up and factor the conference tournament games in this year. Reason I say this is that some of these teams that might be in right now (North Carolina) or close on the bubble just have not proven that they belong, committee might be left with no choice but to get more looks at some of these teams and make them prove it for the last spots. Other reason is they always seem to like to change things up, this year they do their interviews after the selection show and say the new wrinkle this year was more consideration of the conference tournaments. What say you?

basicallly we are in a situation where we have 36 at larges and need one more so you may be right

cmon bid stealers

 

[bac2therac]

St Marys has looked awful all night but only down 5 at the under 4 timeout.

Gaels not passing any eye test and these 2 schools riding high more on metrics than quality wins.

If this results stands....

I had St Marys my lowest 5 and Gonzaga an 8 coming in. I think St Marys in danger of falling to right through the 6 to a 7 and the Zags likely a 7 but outside shot at 6 and last year they were the benefactors of the byu sunday rule and got moved up 2 seed lines and byu lurking around that same seed again so shall see

its really close with the 6s and 7s so this makes things even tougher

 

[bac2therac]

Zags going to win the WCC tourney. They are top 10 NET and we shall see what happens when the dust settles tomorrow with updated metrics to see where they fall and how far down St Marys falls

 

[bac2therac]

St Marys only has 2 wins vs the field....2x regular season over Gonzaga

At 27-5 their 5 losses....Gonzaga,Boise State, Utah State, San Francisco, Arizona State

 

[Erial_Lion_rivals140457]

For anyone that's interested (or needs a refresher)...

https://www.ncaa.com/_flysystem/public-s3/images/2025/01/10/2025 Principles and Procedures.pdf

 

[bac2therac]

For anyone that's interested (or needs a refresher)...

https://www.ncaa.com/_flysystem/public-s3/images/2025/01/10/2025 Principles and Procedures.pdf

thanks for posting that...its alot of work and rules for the committee...that is why I think after Friday they are not bothering with whats going on in conference tourneys

I do not think SEC finals will determine who is a one of if Houston moves past Duke as the 2 seed. Seen evidence of that the last couple of years of top seed lines being unchanged..one year Iowa won the big 10 tourney as a big ten 5 seed and remained a 6 seed as everyone was projecting before the big 10 tourney started

 

[Erial_Lion_rivals140457]

thanks for posting that...its alot of work and rules for the committee...that is why I think after Friday they are not bothering with whats going on in conference tourneys

I do not think SEC finals will determine who is a one of if Houston moves past Duke as the 2 seed. Seen evidence of that the last couple of years of top seed lines being unchanged..one year Iowa won the big 10 tourney as a big ten 5 seed and remained a 6 seed as everyone was projecting before the big 10 tourney started

I've probably mentioned it before, but I did a mock selection committee with Jerry Palm's old CollegeRPI group about 20 years ago...Wednesday to Sunday, spending most of Wednesday-Friday nights and all day Saturday/Sunday (my wife isn't proud of it, lol). We mirrored everything the committee does, and I came away thinking wow, that is a crap ton of work. It's not like you just say "ok, team a just pulled an upset on Saturday, let's move them up a line"...it's so much voting, sorting, reviewing teams and discussing, voting again, adding a team, voting again, removing a team, voting again, etc, etc. It's not a process that's flexible, or where you can just quickly move a team from one slot to another...you need to back out what you've done, and go through the full process and vote on it again.

I don't think it's a situation where the committee says "we don't care about conference tournaments"...it's one where once you've reached Friday, they've pretty much got the field set and have moved on to building the bracket. If there is still a team left that can impact the field itself via an auto-bid, they'll need to double up the work to build multiple potential brackets...2 teams left in that scenario, and you're starting to put together 4 potential brackets.

The other thing you learn in the process is how much Geography plays a role. They aren't trying to pair up the 4th #1 with the best #2. They are putting the ones into the position, and then when you get to the 5th spot, looking for the best geographical fit that meets all of the other principals (though you might try to avoid 4/5 if possible). But that's how you get the 4th overall seed with the 8th overall seed, as they can both head out West if you don't have any other good candidates from out West (and it works out with conferences).

 

[bac2therac]

SOUTH REGION – Atlanta

1) Auburn*

16) American*/St Francis*

8) New Mexico*

9) Creighton

5) Clemson

12) Liberty*

4) Purdue

13) Yale*

6) Missouri

11) VCU*

3) Texas Tech

14) UNC Wilmington*

7) Illinois

10) Vanderbilt

2) Saint John's*

15) Wofford*

WEST REGION San Francisco

1) Florida

16) SIUE*

8) Marquette

9) West Virginia

5) Oregon

12) UC San Diego*

4) Arizona

13) Akron*

6) Mississippi

11) San Diego State

3) Wisconsin

14) Utah Valley State*

7) BYU

10) Utah State

2) Alabama

15) Bryant*

EAST REGION – Newark

1) Duke*

16) Quinnipiac*/Southern*

8) Memphis*

9) Georgia

5) Michigan

12) McNeese*

4) Iowa State

13) Lipscomb*

6) Louisville

11) Oklahoma

3) Kentucky

14) Troy*

7) St Mary's

10) Arkansas

2) Michigan State

15) Robert Morris*

MIDWEST REGION – Indianapolis

1) Houston*

16) Norfolk State*

8) Connecticut

9) Mississippi State

5) UCLA

12) Baylor/North Carolina

4) Maryland

13) High Point*

6) Gonzaga*

11) Indiana/Xavier

3) Texas A&M

14) Northern Colorado*

7) Kansas

10) Drake*

2) Tennessee

15) Omaha*

LAST 4 IN: NORTH CAROLINA, BAYLOR, XAVIER, INDIANA

FIRST 4 OUT: OHIO STATE, DAYTON, BOISE STATE, WAKE FOREST

NEXT 4 OUT: COLORADO STATE, NEBRASKA, TEXAS, SMU

OTHERS: UC IRVINE, VILLANOVA, GEORGE MASON, CINCINNATI



WEDNESDAY'S IMPACT GAMES


ACC

North Carolina must beat Notre Dame in 2nd Round of ACC tourney or their at large chances will take a serious blow.
SMU must defeat Syracuse in 2nd Round of ACC tourney to even keep their flickering hopes alive.


BIG 12

Cincinnati very faint hopes stay alive with a win over Iowa State in the Big 12 tourney 2nd round.
Baylor cannot afford a loss to Kansas State which would drop them to just 3 games above 500 at 17-14 and put them at the mercy of the bubble around them. A win by the Bears will not lock them in but will move them up a notch or two in the pecking order.
Kansas playing for seeding either 6/7/8 and a loss to UCF would not help their case to stay out of the 8
West Virginia will stay on the 9 line with a win over Colorado but could slip on seed list to a 10 with a loss.


BIG EAST

Villanova will remain a distinct longshot even with a win over Seton Hall. A loss and they will not be considered at all.


BIG SKY

Northern Colorado and Montana meet in the Big Sky Tourney Final


BIG 10

Ohio State in must win situation vs Iowa in Big 10 opening round to remain hovering around the cut line. A win could temporarily put them in the field. A loss would drop them to 17-15 and no school has received an at large bid (in non covid year) since Georgia 16-14 in 2001


PATRIOT

American and Navy meet in the Patriot League Tourney Final


SEC

Arkansas will remain above the bubble fray with a win over South Carolina. Another loss to the Cocks could move them back into the last 4 in grouping.
Texas must beat Vanderbilt to have any hope of keeping their at large hopes alive but the Horns still would not move into the field.
Vanderbilt can become a mortal lock with a win. They still are likely in even with a loss but could be perilously close to moving to having to play in Dayton.
Oklahoma would become all but a lock with a win over Georgia. A loss would likely drop them back to last 4 in and subject to bubble results around them.
Georgia can absorb a loss but seeding would take a hit perhaps down to the 10 or even 11 line.
Mississippi State needs to beat LSU to remain on that 8/9 line as their seeding has been dropping of late.


SOUTHLAND

Mc Neese and Lamar meet in the Southland Tourney Finals.

 

[dconifer0]

Bid stealer.

 

[bac2therac]

Some notes...

Yes I moved Gonzaga up to a 6 after they won the WCC final. Their numbers are similar to last year where they were a 6 but got bumped to a 5 because of the BYU Sunday rule. Certainly straddling that 6/7 but I think the committee loves them.

I moved St Marys from a 5 to a 7. They only have 2 wins over the field and that to Gonzaga. I just do not think they have a resume of a 6 with all the other competition around them. I actually would not be surprised if they fall to an 8. Should they really be seeded better than Memphis who has big time OOC wins. Will revisit with several scrubs later in the week.

UCLA now bumped up to 5...for now. That presents major issues because the Big 10 has Purdue, Maryland, Michigan, and Oregon also sitting on the 4/5 line and some brackets have Wisconsin a 4 as well. This means someone has to play each other in the 2nd round and its 4 seed Maryland and 5 seed UCLA. They did only meet once in league play.

Xavier actually picked up a 2nd Q1 win as UConn slid up to 30 in the NET. Now 2-8.....just that increase makes things more aesthetically pleasing to the eye. Do note they are 9-10 in Q1/2 so that is strong. I moved them up a notch in the first 4 and moved Baylor down a notch to next to last school in the field.

Also moved Drake up to a 10....just feel like they are a 10 which bumped San Diego State down to 11.

Also bumped UC San Diego down to a 12...didnt like their last 2 performances last week..again more of a feel thing.

Right now I have the Dayton first fours split up with the 11s and 12s

 

[King of S]

Xavier will be fighting for their NCAA lives tomorrow against Marquette. Should be a great game

 

[bac2therac]

Arkansas up on South Carolina 47-30 at half

Cincinnati hanging around down 58-50 to Iowa State with about 8 minutes to go

 

[bac2therac]

Cincy gave up the ghost losing 76-56 falling to 18-15 and also with just 1 Q1 win, the Bearcats are more than finished

 

[MiamiWolv]

Some notes...

Yes I moved Gonzaga up to a 6 after they won the WCC final. Their numbers are similar to last year where they were a 6 but got bumped to a 5 because of the BYU Sunday rule. Certainly straddling that 6/7 but I think the committee loves them.

I moved St Marys from a 5 to a 7. They only have 2 wins over the field and that to Gonzaga. I just do not think they have a resume of a 6 with all the other competition around them. I actually would not be surprised if they fall to an 8. Should they really be seeded better than Memphis who has big time OOC wins. Will revisit with several scrubs later in the week.

UCLA now bumped up to 5...for now. That presents major issues because the Big 10 has Purdue, Maryland, Michigan, and Oregon also sitting on the 4/5 line and some brackets have Wisconsin a 4 as well. This means someone has to play each other in the 2nd round and its 4 seed Maryland and 5 seed UCLA. They did only meet once in league play.

Xavier actually picked up a 2nd Q1 win as UConn slid up to 30 in the NET. Now 2-8.....just that increase makes things more aesthetically pleasing to the eye. Do note they are 9-10 in Q1/2 so that is strong. I moved them up a notch in the first 4 and moved Baylor down a notch to next to last school in the field.

Also moved Drake up to a 10....just feel like they are a 10 which bumped San Diego State down to 11.

Also bumped UC San Diego down to a 12...didnt like their last 2 performances last week..again more of a feel thing.

Right now I have the Dayton first fours split up with the 11s and 12s

I think UCLA is lower than that.

They played 7 Q4 games. Committee won’t like that, and could ding them.

 

[MadRU]

North Carolina sure looks the part in the first half today

 

[G- RUnit]

What was Calipari thinking? Why purposely miss a foul shot when you can go up 4 with 2.5 seconds left?

 

[bac2therac]

I think UCLA is lower than that.

They played 7 Q4 games. Committee won’t like that, and could ding them.

We shall see. Someone had to move to 5. Thursday and Friday will sort of a mess of seedings with the Big 10

 

[bac2therac]

Arkansas shaky but hangs on vs South Carolina. Now 20-12 they are 99% in the field

 

[bac2therac]

North Carolina sure looks the part in the first half today

They will need to today and then tomorrow vs Wake and then again on Friday night vs Duke

 

[bac2therac]

9-21 and #326 Grambling State upsets top seed Southern in the SWAC tourney semis

 

[bac2therac]

North Carolina takes care of business topping Notre Dame 76-56

Bubba pleased

 

[bac2therac]

Texas says not done yet...up 33-19 over Vandy nearing halftime

WVU having a tough time shaking Colorado only up 4 with under 8 to play

 

[bac2therac]

Colorado now up 49-46

Texas up 41-26 at half...wow

Dream big dreams

 

[bac2therac]

Looks as if WVU is going down to Colorado

A Q2 loss..they still are 14-13 vs Q123

I think they are okay but just 4 wins vs the field...all high level though Gonzaga Arizona Iowa State Kansas...4-8 vs field...lost 5 games to non tourney teams...food for thought

 

[MiamiWolv]

We shall see. Someone had to move to 5. Thursday and Friday will sort of a mess of seedings with the Big 10

True--I think the sheer number of B1G teams hovering around the same seed line in some ways could create some value in the B1G quarters/semis.

95% of the bracket is probably done by Friday. But it's pretty easy if you're debating between say Purdue/Michigan for a spot, or Maryland/Wisconsin for a spot, to just have one spot reserved for the winner of the game, and one for the loser of the game.

I recall in 2017 where Michigan beat Wisconsin in the Sunday, and Michigan received a 7, and Wisconsin a 8, that the committee essentially said those spots were determined by the final.

 

[bac2therac]

McNeese up on Lamar 33-30 at half in the Southland Final

 

[bac2therac]

Texas beats Vandy

Longhorns are 8-14 in q1/2 but only 11-14 in q123 games. 5-12 vs the field. Need to beat Texas A&M tomorrow and then keep winning

Vandy should be alright but don't rule out a trip to Dayton

 

[TDIrish27]

They will need to today and then tomorrow vs Wake and then again on Friday night vs Duke

I think Wake vs UNC tmow is for a bid.

 

[bac2therac]

I think Wake vs UNC tmow is for a bid.

I think Wake is far out right now despite being 4th team out..they need to beat Duke. UNC might just need tomorrow

 

[bac2therac]

Ohio State tied with Iowa 37 all at half

 

[bac2therac]

Mc Neese beats Lamar 63-54 to take the Southland Conference Tourney. As a 12 seed they will be a tough out for a 5 seed from the Big 10.

 

[bac2therac]

update with the Texas win today

LAST 4 IN: NORTH CAROLINA, BAYLOR, XAVIER, INDIANA

FIRST 4 OUT: OHIO STATE, DAYTON, BOISE STATE, TEXAS

NEXT 4 OUT: WAKE FOREST, COLORADO STATE, NEBRASKA, SMU

OTHERS: UC IRVINE, VILLANOVA, GEORGE MASON

 

[fatsam98]

Ohio State tied with Iowa 37 all at half

Down 8 now. Playing like ***

 

[ancienthooper]

25 of the last 33 posts are by Bac in his own thread. “Who loves me, baby”?

 

[bac2therac]

25 of the last 33 posts are by Bac in his own thread. “Who loves me, baby”?

and..so...the thing is you are still reading my work

 

[bac2therac]

Could the Hawkeyes be a double bid stealer...and I do not just mean ending the Buckeyes hopes

 

[ancienthooper]

and..so...the thing is you are still reading my work

Impossible to miss.

 

[bac2therac]

Impossible to miss.

so great, your posts here are all stalkerish

 

[bac2therac]

Ohio State