Bacatology 3/3: NCAA Tournament Analysis

[bac2therac]

Arkansas up 10 at Vandy in the 2nd half

 

[RAC93]

send it into to double overtime

OSU Nebraska in a true bubble battle, Double OT, both teams keep fighting like they know if they lose they’re out

 

[bac2therac]

I think both with wins on Sunday could play their way back in but its tight, especially with Texas winning and UNC/SMU/Xavier lurking plus bid stealers. Neither wants to near the last in or two

SEC dream of 14 bids still alive

 

[bac2therac]

Ohio State wins 116-112

now a gigantic bubble matchup with Indiana awaits. Winning team is in, loser....well not necessarily out but sitting in a very very precarious spot hoping no bid stealers and subject to all the other bubbles around them

we shall see when the smoke clears tomorrow with the metrics

 

[bac2therac]

good chance Nebraska wakes up with an additional Q3 loss tomorrow giving them 3

 

[bac2therac]

Arkansas wins at Vandy...not a lock but big win

great night for the 3 SEC bubble

didnt expect San Diego State to lose to UNLV for a 2nd time. This one was just a Q2 as opposed to the earlier Q3 home loss. Resume takes a hit but still in but with Boise lurking, Aztecs better not screw up at home vs Nevada.

 

[Scarlet Shack]

good chance Nebraska wakes up with an additional Q3 loss tomorrow giving them 3

Forget that

Try this one on for size

Nebraska plays Iowa on Sunday

Nebraska lost to
Iowa
Rutgers
USC
Minnesota

But beat northwestern


if Nebraska looses to Iowa , and northwestern wins they are out of everything ,

Out of the ncaa AND the big ten tourney,

It’s all or nothing for them when they play Iowa this weekend

 

[shields]

Nebraska is 7-12 in conference. Not good.

 

[King of S]

Nebraska is 7-12 in conference. Not good.

Nebraska is not getting in unless they win at least two games in Big Ten tournament.

 

[bac2therac]

ONE SEEDS: Auburn*, Duke*, Houston*, Tennessee

TWO SEEDS: Alabama, Florida, Michigan State*, St John's*

THREE SEEDS: Texas A&M, Wisconsin, Kentucky, Iowa State

FOUR SEEDS: Purdue, Michigan, Texas Tech, Missouri

FIVE SEEDS: Arizona, Maryland, Marquette, Oregon

SIX SEEDS: Clemson, Saint Mary's*, Illinois, UCLA

SEVEN SEEDS: Kansas, Louisville, Mississippi, Memphis*

EIGHT SEEDS: BYU, Mississippi State, Connecticut, Gonzaga

NINE SEEDS: Creighton, Vanderbilt, New Mexico*, West Virginia

TEN SEEDS: VCU*, Utah State, Baylor, Arkansas

ELEVEN SEEDS: Georgia, San Diego State, UC San Diego*, Ohio State/Texas

TWELVE SEEDS: Indiana/Oklahoma, Drake*, McNeese State*, Yale*

THIRTEEN SEEDS: Akron*, High Point*, Lipscomb*, Jacksonville State*

FOURTEEN SEEDS: Utah Valley State*, Chatanooga*, Northern Colorado*, South Alabama*

FIFTEEN SEEDS: Towson*, Robert Morris*, Central Connecticut State*, Norfolk State*

SIXTEEN SEEDS: Bryant*, Quinnipiac*, Omaha*/Southern*/, SE Missouri*/Bucknell*


LAST 4 IN: TEXAS, OKLAHOMA, INDIANA, OHIO STATE
FIRST 4 OUT: NEBRASKA, BOISE STATE, XAVIER, NORTH CAROLINA
NEXT 6 OUT: SMU, CINCINNATI, DAYTON, COLORADO STATE, WAKE FOREST, SAN FRANCISCO


Big changes....Nebraska moves out, Texas moves in just barely.

What is fascinating is that my first four schools will be playing each other this weekend. Oklahoma at Texas and Ohio State at Indiana. Winners of those games are likely in. Losers may not be out but not a spot to me in given some action around the bubble and you dont want to be sitting on the last 2 in lines with potential bid stealers lurking in conference tournaments.

bubble is very weak..i mean very weak and shrinking fast. Not like last year. Anyone advocating for expansion by 6 or 8 or 28 schools is absolutely nuts. Alot of drek would be playing.


BIG 12

Cincinnati must win at home vs Kansas State to remain in contention for an at large.

BIG EAST

Xavier must win at Butler to keep their legitimate hopes alive

BIG 10

Wisconsin's hopes for a 2 seed would end with a loss at Minnesota

SEC

Oklahoma would get "some" breathing room with a win over Missouri. A loss would not necessarily drop them out of the field.
Florida needs to win at Alabama to remain in consideration for a one seed.
Alabama win vs Florida plus a win over the weekend at Auburn would earn them a #1 seed without a doubt. A loss here would not necessarily put them out of the running for a one but would mean a win at Auburn was mandatory.
Tennessee needs to win at Ole Miss to maintain their positioning in the slight drivers seat for that final one seed.

 

[goru7]

ONE SEEDS: Auburn*, Duke*, Houston*, Tennessee

TWO SEEDS: Alabama, Florida, Michigan State*, St John's*

THREE SEEDS: Texas A&M, Wisconsin, Kentucky, Iowa State

FOUR SEEDS: Purdue, Michigan, Texas Tech, Missouri

FIVE SEEDS: Arizona, Maryland, Marquette, Oregon

SIX SEEDS: Clemson, Saint Mary's*, Illinois, UCLA

SEVEN SEEDS: Kansas, Louisville, Mississippi, Memphis*

EIGHT SEEDS: BYU, Mississippi State, Connecticut, Gonzaga

NINE SEEDS: Creighton, Vanderbilt, New Mexico*, West Virginia

TEN SEEDS: VCU*, Utah State, Baylor, Arkansas

ELEVEN SEEDS: Georgia, San Diego State, UC San Diego*, Ohio State/Texas

TWELVE SEEDS: Indiana/Oklahoma, Drake*, McNeese State*, Yale*

THIRTEEN SEEDS: Akron*, High Point*, Lipscomb*, Jacksonville State*

FOURTEEN SEEDS: Utah Valley State*, Chatanooga*, Northern Colorado*, South Alabama*

FIFTEEN SEEDS: Towson*, Robert Morris*, Central Connecticut State*, Norfolk State*

SIXTEEN SEEDS: Bryant*, Quinnipiac*, Omaha*/Southern*/, SE Missouri*/Bucknell*


LAST 4 IN: TEXAS, OKLAHOMA, INDIANA, OHIO STATE
FIRST 4 OUT: NEBRASKA, BOISE STATE, XAVIER, NORTH CAROLINA
NEXT 6 OUT: SMU, CINCINNATI, DAYTON, COLORADO STATE, WAKE FOREST, SAN FRANCISCO


Big changes....Nebraska moves out, Texas moves in just barely.

What is fascinating is that my first four schools will be playing each other this weekend. Oklahoma at Texas and Ohio State at Indiana. Winners of those games are likely in. Losers may not be out but not a spot to me in given some action around the bubble and you dont want to be sitting on the last 2 in lines with potential bid stealers lurking in conference tournaments.

bubble is very weak..i mean very weak and shrinking fast. Not like last year. Anyone advocating for expansion by 6 or 8 or 28 schools is absolutely nuts. Alot of drek would be playing.


BIG 12

Cincinnati must win at home vs Kansas State to remain in contention for an at large.

BIG EAST

Xavier must win at Butler to keep their legitimate hopes alive

BIG 10

Wisconsin's hopes for a 2 seed would end with a loss at Minnesota

SEC

Oklahoma would get "some" breathing room with a win over Missouri. A loss would not necessarily drop them out of the field.
Florida needs to win at Alabama to remain in consideration for a one seed.
Alabama win vs Florida plus a win over the weekend at Auburn would earn them a #1 seed without a doubt. A loss here would not necessarily put them out of the running for a one but would mean a win at Auburn was mandatory.
Tennessee needs to win at Ole Miss to maintain their positioning in the slight drivers seat for that final one seed.

Of the 9 at large spots , I have Vandy , Georgia , Baylor , West Virginia , Indiana and San Diego State. That leaves 3 slots and those fighting for them are Arkansas , Texas , Xavier , Ohio State , UNC and Boise State. Everybody else is done. So 3 spots and 6 contenders. Who you got ?

 

[bac2therac]

I would flip Arky with Indiana.

UNC gets in with a win over Duke so alot depends on that.

Xavier is close..more so for what they didnt do than what they have done. But really their profile is behind the 3 Big East bubbles who were snubbed last year.

Boise State is getting there but have a hard time believing the Mountain West is going to get 5 based on their disastrous history in the NCAA vs ACC only getting 3.

I dont see Oklahoma on your list. They have very good wins to go along with the bulky losses. In fact they have better wins that any around the bubble

watch out for the bid stealers...VCU, UC San Diego and even Drake are attractive at large candidates. Watch out for a bid stealers from the AAC because Memphis is a lock. Also in the WCC.

 

[goru7]

I would flip Arky with Indiana.

UNC gets in with a win over Duke so alot depends on that.

Xavier is close..more so for what they didnt do than what they have done. But really their profile is behind the 3 Big East bubbles who were snubbed last year.

Boise State is getting there but have a hard time believing the Mountain West is going to get 5 based on their disastrous history in the NCAA vs ACC only getting 3.

I dont see Oklahoma on your list. They have very good wins to go along with the bulky losses. In fact they have better wins that any around the bubble

watch out for the bid stealers...VCU, UC San Diego and even Drake are attractive at large candidates. Watch out for a bid stealers from the AAC because Memphis is a lock. Also in the WCC.

Agreed there will be bid stealers for sure. Oklahoma ‘s lost total in the SEC bothers me. After they started 10-0 out of conference they are 17-12 which means they are 7-12 since and 4-12 in conference. 4-12 is a no no for me. I know they have close wins over Arizona , Michigan and Louisville but not lately and they look like a team that will be beat in their first game. But you are correct they have something on their resume

 

[TDIrish27]

I agree on Arky Bac and think they still throw UNC a bid if they lose to Duke and win 2 ACC Tournament games.

 

[bac2therac]

Agreed there will be bid stealers for sure. Oklahoma ‘s lost total in the SEC bothers me. After they started 10-0 out of conference they are 17-12 which means they are 7-12 since and 4-12 in conference. 4-12 is a no no for me. I know they have close wins over Arizona , Michigan and Louisville but not lately and they look like a team that will be beat in their first game. But you are correct they have something on their resume

If they beat Texas they will still be in but easy prey for bid steelers

I don't like their conference mark either but the NCAA claims the committee doesn't consider. Those non conference wins are so good though and they did a few more vs tourney teams

 

[bac2therac]

I agree on Arky Bac and think they still throw UNC a bid if they lose to Duke and win 2 ACC Tournament games.

It will be tough to overcome 1-11 in Q1 with Q2 not all that impressive.

Alot of chances where they failed..they overscheduled

But does anyone think only 3 ACC schools go? In the past few years, Virginia, Pitt, and Notre Dame all got in with weak resumes

 

[G- RUnit]

Last 5 years ACC has been perceived as poor yet have done relatively well in the B1G Dance. They are getting more than 3 in.

 

[bac2therac]

Maryland gets a huge win at Michigan. Both are going to straddle that 4/5 line in the next week. With Purdue looking solid as at least a 4, both Maryland and Michigan will not be on the 4 line, someone will be 4, someone a 5

 

[G- RUnit]

Although NCAA says Tournaments don’t matter but do believe they will have to wait for end of SEC to seed.

Looks like Fla will beat Bama at Bama. Cliff clutch at line. Cliff nice game.

So try to seed Auburn, Tenn, Bama and Florida right now. A&M, Kentucky, Missouri lurking.

 

[G- RUnit]

I’m hesitant giving St.John’s a two seed.
Think down year for Big East.

 

[bac2therac]

Alabama loses at Florida and looks unlikely to get that final 1 seed. Likely to be decided between Florida and Tennessee

I know they have a game at Auburn left by the Tide are 0-3 vs the other big 3

Florida is now 3-1 and Tennessee is 2-2 vs the other big 3 with a split vs each other

Auburn is 2-1

 

[bac2therac]

I’m hesitant giving St.John’s a two seed.
Think down year for Big East.

I agree somewhat.....they are only 5-3 vs the field...7-3 if you include Quinnipiac and Bryant

Still winning a down Big East likely pushes them to 2. The other option there is Wisconsin or perhaps Texas Tech

 

[bac2therac]

Although NCAA says Tournaments don’t matter but do believe they will have to wait for end of SEC to seed.

Looks like Fla will beat Bama at Bama. Cliff clutch at line. Cliff nice game.

So try to seed Auburn, Tenn, Bama and Florida right now. A&M, Kentucky, Missouri lurking.

I think it will not matter if all the teams make the semis. Just going off some recent history where teams won the conference tourney but never got the bump over the team they beat

Auburn is clearly a one...either UF/Tenn gets a one with the other a 2. A&M/KY feel like 3s and Missouri I have 4 now but they dont deserve that and they are losing to OK tonight...feel more like a 5/6

 

[bac2therac]

Xavier gets a Q2 road win at Butler to move to 20-10. We will see tomorrow morning how their metrics look and could they bump Texas out and sneak in. That 1-9 Q1 mark is a tough sell

 

[bac2therac]

Cincy suffers a Quad 3 home loss to Kansas State. Now down to 17-13, 1-10 in Quad 1 and suffering there first Q3 loss, cannot really see a case made and they likely stay in that 6-10th out grouping

 

[G- RUnit]

Xavier gets a Q2 road win at Butler to move to 20-10. We will see tomorrow morning how their metrics look and could they bump Texas out and sneak in. That 1-9 Q1 mark is a tough sell

Great stuff BAC per usual. Don’t see how Xavier makes it with a 1-9 Q1 record. And if you are correct, which you probably are, over Texas no less. Not going to happen.

 

[bac2therac]

big high level Q1 win for Oklahoma by double digits. It is their 7th win vs a team in the field. I know they are just 5-12 in the SEC and the 1-7 road mark is bad...but note 3 neutral site wins over Michigan, UL, and Arizona. They belong.

 

[G- RUnit]

Still have to remember Oklahoma in SEC.
League so good so agreed.

Just wonder with all the love for SEC if actually overrated. Wonder if MSU, Purdue, Maryland may be under rated this year. Not at all impressed with Dusty May coaching.
Have given up trying to figure out Illinois.

Watching Wiscy v Minny. Can’t tell if Wiscy overrated or Minny better than we think.

 

[bac2therac]

Wisconsin is very good. Minnesota plays like the Bannon/Rice teams...good enough to play close and sometimes pull off an upset but generally a middling program around 500

 

[G- RUnit]

Wiscy foul shooting will make them a tough out in tourney. Still I wasn’t wowed.

Garcia will be tough for us.
Wonder about psyche. Johnson looked like crying and wonder if that was his last home game.

 

[bac2therac]

I think its such a tough job. He is a Minnesota native I believe. He had them in the NIT last year but they lost guys to portal...Garcia turned down million offers to stay there..says alot..good kid. I suppose he gets another year because what are the other options, they got rid of Little Ricky who is doing well at New Mexico and could be in line to jump ship to Virginia or even Nova

 

[King of S]

Clemson wins and should move to the 4 seed line.

 

[bac2therac]

Clemson wins and should move to the 4 seed line.

their resume isnt good...gaudy record but where are the wins...were full out to win tonight vs a horrible team

they are literally 2-2 vs the field...that is pathetic....how can they have only have played 4 schools in the field....sure they beat Duke and Kentucky but nothing after that

beat bubbles smu and unc but also lost to memphis and boise

plus a Q3 loss

ACC is a mid major

do they have a better resume than Maryland or Oregon or Arizona...if the answer is no, then how can they be a 4.

Marquette did lose to UConn so have to see how the numbers matchup tomorrow as there would be an opportunity for the Tigers to move to 5 dropping Marquette to 6.

 

[bac2therac]

OIe Miss up late over Tennessee. A loss by the Vols will give Florida the edge for the final one seed.

 

[G- RUnit]

their resume isnt good...gaudy record but where are the wins...were full out to win tonight vs a horrible team

they are literally 2-2 vs the field...that is pathetic....how can they have only have played 4 schools in the field....sure they beat Duke and Kentucky but nothing after that

beat bubbles smu and unc but also lost to memphis and boise

plus a Q3 loss

ACC is a mid major

do they have a better resume than Maryland or Oregon or Arizona...if the answer is no, then how can they be a 4.

Marquette did lose to UConn so have to see how the numbers matchup tomorrow as there would be an opportunity for the Tigers to move to 5 dropping Marquette to 6.

Wins over Kentucky and Duke will play well and gaudy record helps.

 

[bac2therac]

Ole Miss hangs on to beat Tennessee.

Florida is now the projected final one seed

Ole Miss is definitely in play for a 6 in what has been such tight positioning with the 6s and 7s all year

 

[bac2therac]

ONE SEEDS: Auburn*, Duke*, Houston*, Florida

TWO SEEDS: Alabama, Tennessee, Michigan State*, St John's*

THREE SEEDS: Wisconsin, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Texas Tech

FOUR SEEDS: Purdue, Iowa State, Michigan, Arizona

FIVE SEEDS: Maryland, Oregon, Missouri, Clemson

SIX SEEDS: Mississippi, Saint Mary's*, Illinois, Marquette

SEVEN SEEDS: UCLA, Louisville, Kansas, Memphis*

EIGHT SEEDS: Connecticut, BYU, Gonzaga, Mississippi State

NINE SEEDS: Creighton, New Mexico*, West Virginia, Vanderbilt

TEN SEEDS: Utah State, Arkansas, VCU*, Georgia

ELEVEN SEEDS: Baylor, San Diego State, UC San Diego*, Ohio State/Texas

TWELVE SEEDS: Indiana/Oklahoma, Drake*, McNeese State*, Yale*

THIRTEEN SEEDS: Akron*, High Point*, Lipscomb*, Jacksonville State*

FOURTEEN SEEDS: Utah Valley State*, Chatanooga*, Northern Colorado*, South Alabama*

FIFTEEN SEEDS: Towson*, Robert Morris*, Central Connecticut State*, Norfolk State*

SIXTEEN SEEDS: Bryant*, Quinnipiac*, Omaha*/Southern*/, SE Missouri*/Bucknell*


LAST 4 IN: TEXAS, OKLAHOMA, INDIANA, OHIO STATE
FIRST 4 OUT: NEBRASKA, XAVIER, BOISE STATE, NORTH CAROLINA
NEXT 4 OUT: SMU, DAYTON, WAKE FOREST, COLORADO STATE


BIG WEST

UC San Diego cannot afford a Quad 4 loss to Long Beach State and still have strong at large hopes if they fail to win the Big West tournament.

CONFERENCE USA

Liberty will become the projected AQ from CUSA again if they beat Middle Tennessee State


LAST SPOT

Very very very tight for that last spot between Texas, Nebraska, Xavier and Boise State.
I sided under protest with Texas despite a 10-13 Q3 mark. They do have 5 wins vs the field but its a 5-12 mark. Those are ugly numbers. If they do not beat Oklahoma on Saturday they will not be getting a bid.

Nebraska does have 6 wins vs the field but the 2 Q3 losses and now 11-13 in that spot hurts. I also do not see 3 Big 10 schools in that last 4 in. Is beating Iowa enough?

Xavier is just 1-10 vs Q1 and 3-6 vs the field. Not impressive numbers but their resume is clean and do not discount that factor. I have seen this type of profile get a bid.

Boise State has 2 incredible non conference wins over St Marys and Clemson. 2 additional home wins over New Mexico and Utah State. By all rights they should be in...well I have issues with them not having a quality road win, getting swept by San Diego State and having 2 Q3 losses, plus I have a hard time seeing the Mountain West with 5.

North Carolina....y'all know the deal here. Beat Duke and they are in. The 1-10 Q1 mark is tough to look at otherwise with just 1 win (UCLA) currently vs field

Looking like 6 spots open and only 10 schools competing for them but beware of the bid stealers.

 

[King of S]

I have a feeling Xavier will find a way in. Hot team right now.

 

[bac2therac]

I have a feeling Xavier will find a way in. Hot team right now.

Definitely an acceptable clean alternative to 14 loss schools..better hope UNC doesn't beat Duke though

 

[bac2therac]

Liberty beats Middle Tennessee State and moves back into first place tie with Jacksonville State in CUSA but has the tiebreak so will become the projected AQ