Michigan 8-0 in recent close games

[Miggins]

They are a good team, but their record is a bit misleading. 8-0 in last 8 games decided by 4 points or less.
This is ALL of their wins as well, they have not won a game by more than 4 points since Jan 12.
They need to get some credit for closing out games, but much of this is just luck.

We are still a decided dog even considering this but I would not count on a Michigan blowout.
The betting line should be very interesting for this one, Kem Pom and Torvik would have it in the low double digits.
I am going to guess Michigan by 8.5.

 

[ruhoopshq]

Goes to show that Michigan is good at closing out games

I have to imagine with Dylan Harper playing like he did in the USC game and the supporting cast knocking down shots they do have a chance at pulling off an upset

Last time both teams met, might've been one of the worst shooting performances from Rutgers all season and Rutgers only lost by 3

 

[RUJMM78]

They are a good team, but their record is a bit misleading. 8-0 in last 8 games decided by 4 points or less.
This is ALL of their wins as well, they have not won a game by more than 4 points since Jan 12.
They need to get some credit for closing out games, but much of this is just luck.

We are still a decided dog even considering this but I would not count on a Michigan blowout.
The betting line should be very interesting for this one, Kem Pom and Torvik would have it in the low double digits.
I am going to guess Michigan by 8.5.

Michigan has shown they can win close games because their defense keeps them in games when the team isn't scoring at a high level.

 

[Degaz-RU]

We lost by 3 without Dylan and Ogbole. Let's see if they can make a difference. Michigan won't be able to swarm Ace with Dylan in the lineup, and Manny should be able to provide some size and muscle to counteract Vlad.

 

[RUChoppin]

Michigan looked like crap when we played them. The only problem was we fought very hard to limbo below the bar they set.

 

[Doteman]

They are due to lose a close one just like USC was 12-0 when scorring 77+ pts.

 

[stribucher]

Last night's game looked like old school Rutgers rock fight as neither team could throw the ball in the ocean. I expect that Michigan will make more shots above their average FG percentage as our defense stinks. Hopefully, we can simply outscore them. Wolf and Golden are real match up problems. Hopefully, we can attack their point guard into turnovers.

 

[bac2therac]

9-0 in games decided by 4 or less. Execution but coaching plays a big time role. Dusty May deserves Coach of Year in Big 10

 

[RUChoppin]

Rutgers is 5-5 in games decided by four points or less. The problem was we were 2-2 in such games vs Q3/Q4 teams, which should have never been that close.

 

[fluoxetine]

Lots of

Spoiler

luck

 

[bac2therac]

Lots of

Spoiler

luck

Disagree

The difference between average mediocre and championship type teams

Michigan 9-0 as luck is a comical take

 

[fluoxetine]

Disagree

The difference between average mediocre and championship type teams

No. You go 8-0 in close games that’s lucky. You know this. That’s why you complain when Rutgers lets the game get close instead of winning comfortably.

 

[bac2therac]

No

And actually I would take first RU Michigan game out. It was 66-60 and J Mike hit a 3 at the buzzer ..that game was never down to the wire

 

[fluoxetine]

Yes

 

[bac2therac]

Yes

No

 

[RUChoppin]

That final three to beat us last night had a less than 50% chance of going in. They beat the odds for that win, which definitely has an element of luck. That's apart from all the other small things through the end of the game that were not directly in the player's control.

 

[fluoxetine]

No

Yes

No

Yes

And actually I would take first RU Michigan game out. It was 66-60 and J Mike hit a 3 at the buzzer ..that game was never down to the wire

I agree with that

 

[bac2therac]

That final three to beat us last night had a less than 50% chance of going in. They beat the odds for that win, which definitely has an element of luck. That's apart from all the other small things through the end of the game that were not directly in the player's control.

I wouldn't necessarily focus on Michigan last shot. Its more than that for them. In the last 2-3 minutes in every game they seem to step up an execute in close games. Great teams do that alot. Average teams will do it every so often. That's your receipts on seperation

 

[RUChoppin]

I wouldn't necessarily focus on Michigan last shot. Its more than that for them. In the last 2-3 minutes in every game they seem to step up an execute in close games. Great teams do that alot. Average teams will do it every so often. That's your receipts on seperation

They worked hard to put themselves in a position to win, yes .. but actually winning on a 26-ft buzzer beater takes an element of luck that can't be ignored.

There is luck in every game... Usually it's a matter of winning by 8 instead of winning by 11, or whatever. In single possession games, luck is a much larger factor because of so many things that happen during a game that are not directly the result of actions in the player's sphere of influence.

The ball bounced in Michigan's direction 9 out of 9 times, which is unusually fortunate when looking at the scope of all basketball teams and all basketball games.

It's like flipping a coin and getting heads nine times in a row... It happens, but it's rare.

 

[bac2therac]

They worked hard to put themselves in a position to win, yes .. but actually winning on a 26-ft buzzer beater takes an element of luck that can't be ignored.

There is luck in every game... Usually it's a matter of winning by 8 instead of winning by 11, or whatever. In single possession games, luck is a much larger factor because of so many things that happen during a game that are not directly the result of actions in the player's sphere of influence.

The ball bounced in Michigan's direction 9 out of 9 times, which is unusually fortunate when looking at the scope of all basketball teams and all basketball games.

Or maybe they have a great coach and players executing. That's your difference. Luck is a game here or there when you consistently perform in close games well that's more than luck

Rutgers is about 500 in close games.

 

[RUChoppin]

Or maybe they have a great coach and players executing. That's your difference. Luck is a game here or there when you consistently perform in close games well that's more than luck

Rutgers is about 500 in close games.

Most teams are roughly .500 in close games. It's abnormal to be 9-0 in close games, and it requires some things to break your way.

That's the great thing about college basketball - there is an element of randomness, it's not always the better coached better executing team that wins on any given night.

 

[seansherm]

Most teams are roughly .500 in close games. It's abnormal to be 9-0 in close games, and it requires some things to break your way.

That's the great thing about college basketball - there is an element of randomness, it's not always the better coached better executing team that wins on any given night.

Oh, IDK, it is usually the better executing team that wins. Sometimes it goes the other way.

 

[RUChoppin]

Oh, IDK, it is usually the better executing team that wins. Sometimes it goes the other way.

Yes, but usually the better executing team is not in a single possession game in the closing seconds, either. Michigan has been fortunate this year, there's really no getting around that.

 

[seansherm]

Yes, but usually the better executing team is not in a single possession game in the closing seconds, either. Michigan has been fortunate this year, there's really no getting around that.

Maybe, I haven't paid close enough individual attention to them, but the better executing team can be in close games when their overall talent level isn't there. That isnt a great Michigan team. They have two flexible bigs that cause trouble, but at a slower pace which leads to closer games. I don't consider their guard play above average.

 

[RUChoppin]

Ok, going to need to retcon some of this - because the comment from bac I was responding to wasn't accurate (I should have checked this first, but I was on my phone and not at my desktop). They are not 9-0 in close games at all - they are 11-4 in games decided by 4 points or less (73%), which is much more realistic. They've been on a run of 9 such wins after starting the season 2-4 in that department.

Still, the win vs. Rutgers had a definite element of luck. Burnett (a 41.2% 3P shooter) took a 30 footer to win. Odds are that shot misses, clean look or no - but odds weren't in our favor.

The prior game, Nebraska missed what would have been a game-tying 3 taken with 0:03 left.
The prior close game, Ohio State missed what would have been a game-tying 2 taken with 0:01 left.
Game prior to that, Purdue missed what would have been a game winning buzzer beater.

4 consecutive games came down to a final shot..... 4 times it went Michigan's way.

Cardiac kids.

I have very little faith in them making it out of the first weekend of the tournament.

 

[bac2therac]

Ok, going to need to retcon some of this - because the comment from bac I was responding to wasn't accurate (I should have checked this first, but I was on my phone and not at my desktop). They are not 9-0 in close games at all - they are 11-4 in games decided by 4 points or less (73%), which is much more realistic. They've been on a run of 9 such wins after starting the season 2-4 in that department.

Still, the win vs. Rutgers had a definite element of luck. Burnett (a 41.2% 3P shooter) took a 30 footer to win. Odds are that shot misses, clean look or no - but odds weren't in our favor.

The prior game, Nebraska missed what would have been a game-tying 3 taken with 0:03 left.
The prior close game, Ohio State missed what would have been a game-tying 2 taken with 0:01 left.
Game prior to that, Purdue missed what would have been a game winning buzzer beater.

4 consecutive games came down to a final shot..... 4 times it went Michigan's way.

Cardiac kids.

I have very little faith in them making it out of the first weekend of the tournament.

There won't be many teams with experience playing against 2 quality bigs

 

[RUChoppin]

There won't be many teams with experience playing against 2 quality bigs

But on the flip side, B1G programs have traditionally struggled with NCAA tournament officiating, because we're largely allowed to brutalize each other in conference. Goldin could have easily averaged 2 more fouls a game this season, for example - and Michigan's not especially deep, not especially great from range, and they turn the ball over a lot.