THE OFFICIAL RUTGERS-PENN STATE PREDICTION THREAD

[bac2therac]

RUTGERS 76 Penn State 71

 

[Rutgers56_rivals]

Rutgers 77
Penn’s Taint 73

 

[BillyC80]

This is a game where Lathan’s skills can be useful in breaking the press.

JWill has to bring the ball up so Ace Baldwin has to decide to stop ball or stay with Dylan.

Our Ace could have some high flying finishes when the press is broken.

Crowd will be a huge factor in our favor.

Rutgers wins, 78-72

 

[fatsam98]

I refuse to believe Pike can't figure this out.

Rutgers 81-76

 

[RUskoolie]

Historically anytime Rutgers is in a tail spin and people are jumping off buildings, Pike pulls a 180 and wins.So I am going with that Tuesday night.

 

[dfr1966]

RU 72-66

 

[Mr. Magoo1]

Rutgers 76
Penn State 72

I’m betting the crowd takes us to victory but it won’t be easy.

 

[fluoxetine]

Rutgers 87, Penn St 86 OT

 

[bethlehemfan]

Historically anytime Rutgers is in a tail spin and people are jumping off buildings, Pike pulls a 180 and wins.So I am going with that Tuesday night.

Usually though it happens after bacs predictions go dark so I’m a little worried.

 

[fluoxetine]

I feel like bac is pretty level headed in the predictions even when he is doom and gloom in the recaps.

 

[RUJMM78]

Home game means must win for Rutgers.

Rutgers 79 Penn State 74

 

[zebnatto]

RU 81
PSU 74

 

[motel00]

I like the optimism. Not buying it, but I like it!

 

[LeapinLou]

With a win, we break the losing streak and remain in a small hole, only needing to make up for the KSU loss. With a loss, we are in a vast crater of despair. Other than that, just a typical Tuesday night game.

 

[toby83]

Rutgers 87, Penn St 86 OT

agree with both teams in mid 80s , i think they both get there in regulation time...should be fun one to watch

 

[gmay8]

Penn State - 85
RU - 79

Hope I'm wrong. Haven't seen enough from our squad

 

[RUSCFORMERLYRULOU]

PSU 85
RU 72

 

[cRURah]

PSU 80
RU 72
don’t see us winning the game based on play this season. We have only 3-4 players that belong on this level. The rest of the roster is an abomination.

 

[Freddy Stubbs]

PSU 90
RU 75
This team has no clue on defense and only 2 players on offense.
Pike is doing an Eddie Jordan level coaching job this year.

 

[RW90]

I think the team senses the urgency of this one.

RU 69
PSU 64

 

[Degaz-RU]

There's an awful lot of unwarranted optimism in this thread. A few stats to make you throw up your lunch:

- Penn State has the highest scoring offense in the B1G right now at 90.1 ppg. Rutgers is 10th at 79.7.
- Penn State is 8th in ppg defense, giving up an average of 67.8 ppg. Rutgers is dead last (18th) at 75.6 ppg.
- Penn State has the 4th best "differential" between points scored and points allowed at +22.3. Rutgers is 15th at +4.1.
- Penn State is 1st in FG% offense at 51.9%. Rutgers is 12th at 45.4%.
- Penn State is 3rd in 3-pt FG% offense at 38.2%. Rutgers is 12th at 32.2%.
- Penn State is 2nd in assists per game at 18.2. Rutgers is 17th at 13.8.

I cannot see us winning this game even though it is at the RAC. Forget about the fact that the name "Penn State" doesn't scream "basketball power" -- the Nittany Lions are one of the best teams in the Big Ten right now and are playing with a ton of confidence. The only thing you can't account for is whether PSU's big win over Purdue gives them a hangover, especially on the road. But I think they overcome that, get an early lead and then play with confidence.

Penn State 82
Rutgers 74

 

[Corycord1]

PSU 88 RU 71

 

[BillyC80]

There's an awful lot of unwarranted optimism in this thread. A few stats to make you throw up your lunch:

- Penn State has the highest scoring offense in the B1G right now at 90.1 ppg. Rutgers is 10th at 79.7.
- Penn State is 8th in ppg defense, giving up an average of 67.8 ppg. Rutgers is dead last (18th) at 75.6 ppg.
- Penn State has the 4th best "differential" between points scored and points allowed at +22.3. Rutgers is 15th at +4.1.
- Penn State is 1st in FG% offense at 51.9%. Rutgers is 12th at 45.4%.
- Penn State is 3rd in 3-pt FG% offense at 38.2%. Rutgers is 12th at 32.2%.
- Penn State is 2nd in assists per game at 18.2. Rutgers is 17th at 13.8.

I cannot see us winning this game even though it is at the RAC. Forget about the fact that the name "Penn State" doesn't scream "basketball power" -- the Nittany Lions are one of the best teams in the Big Ten right now and are playing with a ton of confidence. The only thing you can't account for is whether PSU's big win over Purdue gives them a hangover, especially on the road. But I think they overcome that, get an early lead and then play with confidence.

Penn State 82
Rutgers 74

Stats-wise there’s no comparison, and PSU is clearly the better team. That said, this will be their first true road game of the season (they are 2-1 in neutral site games and 6-0 at home). So maybe a glimmer of hope there.

 

[Erial_Lion_rivals140457]

Rutgers is favored by 1...total at 158.5.

 

[JudgeSmails56]

Penn State 83-71.

 

[rudad02]

Can you see this game on Peacock?

 

[zappaa]

If we score 90 plus we can win

 

[zappaa]

Can you see this game on Peacock?

Yes sir…no channel surfing tomorrow

 

[fluoxetine]

There's an awful lot of unwarranted optimism in this thread. A few stats to make you throw up your lunch:

- Penn State has the highest scoring offense in the B1G right now at 90.1 ppg. Rutgers is 10th at 79.7.
- Penn State is 8th in ppg defense, giving up an average of 67.8 ppg. Rutgers is dead last (18th) at 75.6 ppg.
- Penn State has the 4th best "differential" between points scored and points allowed at +22.3. Rutgers is 15th at +4.1.
- Penn State is 1st in FG% offense at 51.9%. Rutgers is 12th at 45.4%.
- Penn State is 3rd in 3-pt FG% offense at 38.2%. Rutgers is 12th at 32.2%.
- Penn State is 2nd in assists per game at 18.2. Rutgers is 17th at 13.8.

I cannot see us winning this game even though it is at the RAC. Forget about the fact that the name "Penn State" doesn't scream "basketball power" -- the Nittany Lions are one of the best teams in the Big Ten right now and are playing with a ton of confidence. The only thing you can't account for is whether PSU's big win over Purdue gives them a hangover, especially on the road. But I think they overcome that, get an early lead and then play with confidence.

Penn State 82
Rutgers 74

Penn State has played the #296 schedule so far. I’m not saying they are bad, or that we are the better team, but those stats you posted are misleading. Penn State is good but not that good. We are disappointing, but not *that* bad in an absolute sense. Rutgers as a (very) slight favorite at the RAC makes a lot of sense to me.

 

[Rufans]

RU 87
PSU 83

 

[Rhuarc]

The only way I see us winning is we go with the old Loyola Marymount offense of shoot, shoot, shoot. Hopefully we get hot. Otherwise.....

PSU 88-RU 75

 

[Degaz-RU]

Penn State has played the #296 schedule so far. I’m not saying they are bad, or that we are the better team, but those stats you posted are misleading. Penn State is good but not that good. We are disappointing, but not *that* bad in an absolute sense. Rutgers as a (very) slight favorite at the RAC makes a lot of sense to me.

I hear you. But we can only go based on the stats that are out there, and I figure each team in the Big Ten has played a GENERALLY similar schedule up to this point, with mostly cupcakes plus a couple of high majors.

Remember too that Rutgers’ poor stats were accumulated against a bunch of low and mid majors (in addition to 4 high majors).

So there is some apples to apples here.

 

[fluoxetine]

I hear you. But we can only go based on the stats that are out there,

Well not really. You can adjust those stats for one thing, which is what Bart and Kenpom do and is the kind of analysis that is behind the Vegas line as well.

and I figure each team in the Big Ten has played a GENERALLY similar schedule up to this point,

You’d be wrong. Purdue has played the #15 schedule so far against teams with an average adjusted efficiency margin of +10.67. Penn State’s opponents have an an average of -4.36. That’s a difference of roughly 10 points per game. It does not even out.

Remember too that Rutgers’ poor stats were accumulated against a bunch of low and mid majors (in addition to 4 high majors).

So there is some apples to apples here.

Rutgers has played against opponents with an average of +3.85. This is still 5-6 ppg better than Penn State’s opponents. It’s not apples to apples, that’s a significant difference

 

[Degaz-RU]

Well not really. You can adjust those stats for one thing, which is what Bart and Kenpom do and is the kind of analysis that is behind the Vegas line as well.




You’d be wrong. Purdue has played the #15 schedule so far against teams with an average adjusted efficiency margin of +10.67. Penn State’s opponents have an an average of -4.36. That’s a difference of roughly 10 points per game. It does not even out.



Rutgers has played against opponents with an average of +3.85. This is still 5-6 ppg better than Penn State’s opponents. It’s not apples to apples, that’s a significant difference

I’m glad to hear some of these stats, which put things in a finer perspective. And I sure do hope you’re right that Penn State is not as good as they appear, and Rutgers isn’t as bad as we appear.

That said, if we’re talking “adjusted” type stats:

- KenPom has PSU at #33 (+19.09 AdjE) and Rutgers at #74 (+10.59)

-Bart has PSU at #39 (.8593) and Rutgers at #58 (.8103)

So there is a significant gap in adjusted performance metrics despite the differences you point out. Crossing my fingers we can get it together tomorrow night.

 

[Scarlet Blind_rivals]

6 out of the next 8 are at Home with a Neutral vs Princeton and @ Indiana

I predict the team comes together over the next 8 games. It starts with Penn St, their first true road game this yr

Rutgers 91
Penn St 77

 

[fluoxetine]

I’m glad to hear some of these stats, which put things in a finer perspective. And I sure do hope you’re right that Penn State is not as good as they appear, and Rutgers isn’t as bad as we appear.

That said, if we’re talking “adjusted” type stats:

- KenPom has PSU at #33 (+19.09 AdjE) and Rutgers at #74 (+10.59)

-Bart has PSU at #39 (.8593) and Rutgers at #58 (.8103)

So there is a significant gap in adjusted performance metrics despite the differences you point out. Crossing my fingers we can get it together tomorrow night.

Yes, it’s actually interesting the Rutgers is favored given that gap in Kenpom which would be more than the home court advantage. I don’t have a Kenpom subscription but I would assume he has Penn State favored by a couple. Bart has Rutgers favored by like 1.5. Penn State would definitely be favored on a neutral court.

Despite the underwhelming win/loss record we HAVE played well at times this year. But we’ve also played very badly at times. The Rutgers that showed up to play Bama should beat PSU at home. The one that showed up at Ohio State, probably not.

 

[Erial_Lion_rivals140457]

Yes, it’s actually interesting the Rutgers is favored given that gap in Kenpom which would be more than the home court advantage. I don’t have a Kenpom subscription but I would assume he has Penn State favored by a couple. Bart has Rutgers favored by like 1.5. Penn State would definitely be favored on a neutral court.

Despite the underwhelming win/loss record we HAVE played well at times this year. But we’ve also played very badly at times. The Rutgers that showed up to play Bama should beat PSU at home. The one that showed up at Ohio State, probably not.

Ken has it as PSU 80-78 (58%). FWIW, he has PSU going 22-9 (12-8), and you guys going 14-17 (7–13). Ken doesn’t give as much of a bump to recruits as someone like Bart does, so Rutgers started at 64th which is obviously lower than anywhere else.

If I’m Rutgers, my strategy is to protect the ball and play the game in the half court. PSU thrives in transition, getting turnovers and/or speeding teams up, etc. Clemson was able to slow it down, and we don’t have a great half court offense (Hicks is the only guy that we’d really want shooting 3s). Baldwin would rather get to the rim (though he’s a good distributor), Kern wants to drive, Johnson wants to drive, Konan does his work off of pick and rolls and in the post.

PSU will pick up 94 feet, overplay passing lanes, etc. Gives up open 3s when the other team moves the ball, so Rutgers needs to knock them down, and take advantage of some easy scores when the press is broken.

Harper-Baldwin will be a great matchup. Ace is really able to get other guys off their game, so interesting to see how Dylan handles it.

 

[RUbytheshore]

RU 82 - PSU 79

 

[Newbrunfus]

Ace finally doesn’t pass and rather nails a game winning three. R U 80-77 winner over State Penn!

 

[teafan]

RU wins 90 - 78