Last Year’s Team

[PhillyRU]

for the record, I am really not a believer in this years team, but how many wins would last year’s team have against this B1G schedule, even with Mag?

Indiana for sure, and then maybe Illinois or Ohio State/Iowa — I think they go 2-3. So this team is bad but the start to B1G is abjectly rough

 

[BillyC80]

You make a good point. We started the B1G season with a home game, but unfortunately it was against a top 10 team (IL currently #16 NET, after losing their best player, Shannon, who played against us).

Then we go on the road against three good but beatable teams in OSU, Iowa, and MSU. They’re all beatable but unfortunately we only play them once each, on the road. Minnesota the same.

On top of that we play the three best teams — Purdue, Wisconsin, and Illinois — twice each.

So, while we still have a path to 10 conference wins, mostly in the back half of our B1G schedule, we are staring at 2-8 for the front half.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Either 4-1 or 3-2 depending on officiating.

Last year 1st 5 (4-1, 3-2 depending how you score OSU)
Away bart #45 W/L
Home #35 W
Away #7 W
Home #31 W
Home #41 L

This year
Home #14
Away #37
Away #53
Home #88
Away #11

 

[bac2therac]

Either 4-1 or 3-2 depending on officiating.

Last year 1st 5 (4-1, 3-2 depending how you score OSU)
Away bart #45 W/L
Home #35 W
Away #7 W
Home #31 W
Home #41 L

This year
Home #14
Away #37
Away #53
Home #88
Away #11

Greene bought the receipts that end this thread

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Greene bought the receipts that end this thread

I know it was only like 6 weeks, but people forget how good we were. I remember sitting and watching the 1st half of the Maryland game and just being stunned at how good we were defensively.

 

[PhillyRU]

Either 4-1 or 3-2 depending on officiating.

Last year 1st 5 (4-1, 3-2 depending how you score OSU)
Away bart #45 W/L
Home #35 W
Away #7 W
Home #31 W
Home #41 L

This year
Home #14
Away #37
Away #53
Home #88
Away #11

We were rolling no doubt, but to me there are matchup-specific considerations. Even during the in-form stretch, Rutgers lost in Columbus and East Lansing, performing maybe 5 pts better in each last year, (a 17-4 MSU run helped them win 70-57) and to Iowa at home who Pike always seems to struggle against.

I’m hoping this is the end of my bargaining stage.

 

[FinalFourOrBust_rivals142702]

2-3 or 3-2 but they beat Princeton and Mississippi state and crush all their quad 3/4 non conference opponents

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

329-344-312
our ranking in 3pt, 2pt and 1 pt shooting %

we in the look in the fvcking mirror stage

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

At least we aren't Houston christian

https://barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Houston+Christian

 

[BillyC80]

Either 4-1 or 3-2 depending on officiating.

Last year 1st 5 (4-1, 3-2 depending how you score OSU)
Away bart #45 W/L
Home #35 W
Away #7 W
Home #31 W
Home #41 L

This year
Home #14
Away #37
Away #53
Home #88
Away #11

Not disputing we were better last year, just that who we played and where we played them has been difficult this year.

So for example, if we had started with IL on the road (for a loss), and then had OSU and Iowa at home in consecutive weeks, we might have started 2-1 versus 1-2.

Then a road loss to Mich St followed by a home win to Indiana (if the schedule were set up that way, with 3 home and 2 away, like last year), then we might be 3-2 at this point, just like last year.

 

[goru7]

329-344-312
our ranking in 3pt, 2pt and 1 pt shooting %

we in the look in the fvcking mirror stage

Which tells you that we are just terrible terrible shooters as an entire team or there has to be some reversion to just adequate shooting. We are a better foul shooting team than 312, just have to prove it down the stretch. Now that Wolf is making them , there is not one player who goes to the line and I think this is not going in.
Our 344 rank for 2 point shooting with all those missed layups. It has been an issue for years but really bad this year . The whole team has to shoot much much better but it would help if Cliff, Derek and Gavin hit their 2’s , Hyatt makes his layups and the guards don’t aimlessly throw up shots on their drives without using the backboard. We can improve that % by a lot by just adequate fundamental shooting.
We do not take a lot of 3’s relative to the rest of the country but the struggles from Gavin, Noah really make that number 329. IF Hyatt keeps shooting them , Oskar makes a few like last year , Gavin makes them ( after first driving to the hoop and seeing a 2 point shot go in ) and Noah takes and hits a few more , and Mag continues to be a threat from there , this % can rise as well.
Obviously , if the 329/344/312 number is the same at the end of these next 15 games then our record will be abysmal and we will know why. But if we just improve to the 200’s , a number of more wins will be forthcoming. Got to think we have a decent chance to get to the 200’s hopefully on the lower side.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I refuse to think we are this bad and some type of reversion is coming.

That is bargaining though

 

[BillyC80]

Which tells you that we are just terrible terrible shooters as an entire team or there has to be some reversion to just adequate shooting. We are a better foul shooting team than 312, just have to prove it down the stretch. Now that Wolf is making them , there is not one player who goes to the line and I think this is not going in.
Our 344 rank for 2 point shooting with all those missed layups. It has been an issue for years but really bad this year . The whole team has to shoot much much better but it would help if Cliff, Derek and Gavin hit their 2’s , Hyatt makes his layups and the guards don’t aimlessly throw up shots on their drives without using the backboard. We can improve that % by a lot by just adequate fundamental shooting.
We do not take a lot of 3’s relative to the rest of the country but the struggles from Gavin, Noah really make that number 329. IF Hyatt keeps shooting them , Oskar makes a few like last year , Gavin makes them ( after first driving to the hoop and seeing a 2 point shot go in ) and Noah takes and hits a few more , and Mag continues to be a threat from there , this % can rise as well.
Obviously , if the 329/344/312 number is the same at the end of these next 15 games then our record will be abysmal and we will know why. But if we just improve to the 200’s , a number of more wins will be forthcoming. Got to think we have a decent chance to get to the 200’s hopefully on the lower side.

I tend to agree with this outlook, optimisticly.

Rutgers makes an average of 6 threes per game, which puts us at #305.

If we were making 1 more trey per game, our rank with 7 threes per game would be #223.

If we were taking an average of 21 attempts, and hitting 7, at 33.33% we’d be at #202.

Going forward if we do shoot 7/21 from three, our chances of winning will increase even though our season average will still be very low, due to our performance in our first 16 games.

The point is that we can still improve in all shooting areas (3,2,1) and start winning at a much better clip, possibly enough to go 9-6 in conference from this point forward.

Of course, if we shoot poorly and get beat by Nebraska, I won’t be quite so optimistic.

 

[PhillyRU]

I refuse to think we are this bad and some type of reversion is coming.

That is bargaining though

We’re 188th in ShotQuality’s AdjEM at 1.05 PPP, which is still very bad, but significantly better than where we’re at currently. We’re also 31 in their defensive rankings too, suggesting regression there is likely as well.

Speaking to poor recruiting/a lack of talent at Pike’s disposal, we’ve underperformed our ShotQuality PPP by 2-6 points the last four years (at 1.11 PPP our SQ offense was top-75 in the nation last year)

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

We’re 188th in ShotQuality’s AdjEM at 1.05 PPP, which is still very bad, but significantly better than where we’re at currently. We’re also 31 in their defensive rankings too, suggesting regression there is likely as well.

Speaking to poor recruiting/a lack of talent at Pike’s disposal, we’ve underperformed our ShotQuality PPP by 2-6 points the last four years (at 1.11 PPP our SQ offense was top-75 in the nation last year)

Explain this and is it public?

Thx

 

[PhillyRU]

Explain this and is it public?

Thx

Sure so ShotQuality is kind of like expected goals in soccer if you’re familiar, basically it takes the likelihood of making a particular shot (based on defender distance, off-dribble/catch-and-shoot, etc) and multiplies by the type of shot (2pt, 3pt, FT)

They have a “Team Standings” page that has offensive/defensive EM, Rim & 3PT Rate (which you might be better off not looking at lol) and some other cool nuggets. But most stuff is paywalled.

 

[Scarlet Shack]

I refuse to think we are this bad and some type of reversion is coming.

That is bargaining though

We are going to find out in the next two weeks with 3 of 4 At the RAC

 

[Scarlet Shack]

Sure so ShotQuality is kind of like expected goals in soccer if you’re familiar, basically it takes the likelihood of making a particular shot (based on defender distance, type of shot, etc) and multiplies by the type of shot (2pt, 3pt, FT)

They have a “Team Standings” page that has offensive/defensive EM, Rim & 3PT Rate (which you might be better off not looking at lol) and some other cool nuggets. But most stuff is paywalled.

Is there a link ? Love to check our even the limited free stuff

 

[PhillyRU]

Is there a link ? Love to check our even the limited free stuff

Whoops I mean to include that in the OP, here it is:

ShotQuality

shotquality.com