THE OFFICIAL RUTGERS-INDIANA PREDICTION THREAD

[bac2therac]

RUTGERS 64 Indiana 59 in front of a rain soaked crowd that will not be a full crowd due to rains and potential flooding concerns

 

[LeapinLou]

It does seem like home court has been an even bigger advantage than usual in the Big 10 so far, so I can see why you're going with RU. Granted we lost at home to Illinois but they are probably the 2nd best team in the conference. We need this one to prevent the season from spiraling. I hope the shots fall.

 

[RUBOB72]

Indiana 72 Rutgers 64

 

[BillyC80]

By almost any measure Indiana should win, except like most teams they don’t play as well on the road, and similar to our Stonehill victory they struggled at home to beat Morehead State by 1 point.

Granted, Morehead scored over 100 points against Saint Mary of the Woods and the vaunted Alice Lloyd squad (I did not make up those school names), but still.

We have to limit Reneau’s scoring inside, and Xavier Johnson’s scoring outside. Force other guys to try and beat us. Easier said than done.

RU wins a close one, 69-67.

 

[Freddy Stubbs]

If we don't win this one, it will be a long time before we get one.
IU 63
RU 64

 

[Mr. Magoo1]

Indiana is an underachieving bunch but they are big. I think we hang around for a while but we’re still who we are.

Indiana 74
Rutgers 67

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Rutgers 68
Indiana 59

 

[bac2therac]

It does seem like home court has been an even bigger advantage than usual in the Big 10 so far, so I can see why you're going with RU. Granted we lost at home to Illinois but they are probably the 2nd best team in the conference. We need this one to prevent the season from spiraling. I hope the shots fall.

this is our last gasp for any kind of decent season, its an opportunity in a very winnable game. Northwestern got punked by Illinois losing by 30 and picked themselves off their feet and throttled Michigan State by double digits days later. Indiana was down early vs Ohio State and then rallied in the 2nd half to win. If this program has any pulse it beats a mediocre team coming to the RAC and this coaching staff needs to be aware it has lost 4 or 5 straight Big 10 home games at the RAC

 

[fluoxetine]

By almost any measure Indiana should win,

Torvik has us favored by 3.3 points.
Massey has us favored by 3 points.
Kenpom has us favored by roughly 3 points or whatever he uses for HCA (our ratings are almost exactly equal - we are slightly higher)
If the NET predicted games, we'd be favored by.. roughly three points as we are also basically the same in NET (we are again slighly ahead)
When the Vegas line comes out.. I'd be willing to be a lot we'll be slightly favored. Let's revisit tomorrow / later tonight.

So really, there is almost NO objective measure by which Indiana "should" win. There is, however, the feelings of beaten down message board posters.

 

[BillyC80]

Torvik has us favored by 3.3 points.
Massey has us favored by 3 points.
Kenpom has us favored by roughly 3 points or whatever he uses for HCA (our ratings are almost exactly equal - we are slightly higher)
If the NET predicted games, we'd be favored by.. roughly three points as we are also basically the same in NET (we are again slighly ahead)
When the Vegas line comes out.. I'd be willing to be a lot we'll be slightly favored. Let's revisit tomorrow / later tonight.

So really, there is almost NO objective measure by which Indiana "should" win. There is, however, the feelings of beaten down message board posters.

I’m surprised by this, when you look at their record and who they’ve played.

They’re 11-4 vs our 8-6. Three of their four losses are to Top 25 teams, Auburn (#25), UConn (#4) and KS (#2, by only 4 points). They beat OSU which we were unable to do, and they have Xavier Johnson back, who is always tough and is shooting well from both 2 (45%) and 3 (58%) so far (smallish sample).

How many points. if any, do those analytics sites assign to playing at the RAC? In the past it may have been worth 5+ points, but in the recent past it hasn’t been an advantage at all against good teams.

Who would be favored on a neutral court?

 

[fluoxetine]

I’m surprised by this, when you look at their record and who they’ve played.

They’re 11-4 vs our 8-6. Three of their four losses are to Top 25 teams, Auburn (#25), UConn (#4) and KS (#2, by only 4 points). They beat OSU which we were unable to do, and they have Xavier Johnson back, who is always tough and is shooting well from both 2 (45%) and 3 (58%) so far (smallish sample).

How many points. if any, do those analytics sites assign to playing at the RAC? In the past it may have been worth 5+ points, but in the recent past it hasn’t been an advantage at all against good teams.

Who would be favored on a neutral court?

Three-ish points for home court. Rutgers and Indiana are almost exactly tied in all of these systems (Massey and Bart have a slight edge for Indiana on a neutral, NET and Kenpom slight edge for Rutgers)

 

[BillyC80]

Three-ish points for home court. Rutgers and Indiana are almost exactly tied in all of these systems (Massey and Bart have a slight edge for Indiana on a neutral, NET and Kenpom slight edge for Rutgers)

I’m not sold, lol. I think Vegas will have us as something like a 1.5 underdog. We’ll see…

 

[fluoxetine]

I’m not sold, lol. I think Vegas will have us as something like a 1.5 underdog. We’ll see…

Very unlikely, imo. Whether these lines are *correct*, I don’t know, but when every statistical model is in general agreement like this the betting lines don’t tend to open 4.5-5 points off that.

 

[BillyC80]

Very unlikely, imo. Whether these lines are *correct*, I don’t know, but when every statistical model is in general agreement like this the betting lines don’t tend to open 4.5-5 points off that.

How would the flux system have projected this game?

 

[Morrischiano2]

RUTGERS 64 Indiana 59 in front of a rain soaked crowd that will not be a full crowd due to rains and potential flooding concerns

It’s going to rain…..

 

[Rutgers56_rivals]

Indiana 67
Rutgers 61

Keep counting down until next season. Tick, tock …

 

[zappaa]

We move the goalposts a lot.
Playing an 0-3 Iowa team on the road hoping the 2nd half of OSU and an excellent performance from Simpson would carry over…it did not
Now we have Indiana at home still unable to get Cliff involved in the offense, this is going to change all of a sudden?
If Cliff gets objectively outplayed by a the 7 foot Indiana center, can we still win?
He’s averaging 13 plus points a game

 

[RUBOB72]

Cliff though we have been told by RU coaches has not improved on any part of his post or outside game.

 

[Degaz-RU]

Indiana has a significant size advantage at all positions, and that's where I think they'll win this game. Cliff will be neutralized on offense, and will have a tough time defending, 7-foot Ke'Lel Ware, who is very active and athletic. Mag has a humongous task trying to stop 6-9 Malik Reneau, who is leading IU in scoring at 16.5 ppg and has a tremendous post game (while also shooting 11-23 on threes). Hyatt will need to defend 6-8 five-star freshman Mackenzie Mbako, who has been coming around of late. And IU's starting guards go 6-3 and 6-5.

IU doesn't shoot a lot of threes, but they're shooting 34% and average about 5 made threes per game. That's good enough if the size advantage works for them up front and on two pointers.

Meanwhile, Rutgers is just really struggling to establish any amount of consistency or rhythm on offense, and this matchup won't help us in that regard because IU's size up front will likely make us a jump shooting team -- not a recipe for success -- or, if we do get into the paint, we all know we have the worst "finishing" ability in the country, plus Ware and Reneau have combined for 33 blocks.

The team that "owned" Indiana is mostly gone now, and I don't see the current guys being able to continue the magic.

Indiana 72
Rutgers 63

 

[LeapinLou]

this is our last gasp for any kind of decent season,

Agree. An 8-12 Big 10 record gives us a .500 record and perhaps an NIT bid. Lose this game and there is NFW we can get to 8 wins. It will still be nip and tuck even if we get this one.

 

[RUBOB72]

Agree. An 8-12 Big 10 record gives us a .500 record and perhaps an NIT bid. Lose this game and there is NFW we can get to 8 wins. It will still be nip and tuck even if we get this one.

A 500 record is what you are predicting? Have you seen this squad lately 13-14 wins tops.

 

[BigEastPhil]

Game will be rained out.

 

[RUBOB72]

Unless it involves the Old Raritan overflowing it’s banks and all surrounding roads leading into the campus we don’t see that scenario occurring.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Agree. An 8-12 Big 10 record gives us a .500 record and perhaps an NIT bid. Lose this game and there is NFW we can get to 8 wins. It will still be nip and tuck even if we get this one.

need more than that

 

[LeapinLou]

A 500 record is what you are predicting? Have you seen this squad lately 13-14 wins tops.

I'm saying any chance for .500 requires a win tomorrow and even then it may not be enough. While I'm not predicting it, I do think it's possible. I guess I'm slightly more optimistic than you.

 

[RUBOB72]

You may have saying that but it didn’t come across like that. The only way to do a 500 record we need to go 8-10 the rest of the way… we’ll see soon.

 

[whofrewdatmataRU13]

IU - A lot
RU - A little

 

[zebnatto]

RU 70
Indy 65

 

[RUBob75]

The line that I saw has RU -3.5

 

[JudgeSmails56]

Indinia 77-61

 

[Mr. Magoo1]

Agree. An 8-12 Big 10 record gives us a .500 record and perhaps an NIT bid. Lose this game and there is NFW we can get to 8 wins. It will still be nip and tuck even if we get this one.

The NIT is garbage. We weren’t even interested enough to show up vs. Hofstra at home when we had better players.

 

[cRURah]

75-62, we lose. team is not good enough this year.

 

[G- RUnit]

RUTGERS 64 Indiana 59 in front of a rain soaked crowd that will not be a full crowd due to rains and potential flooding concerns

How bad in your opinion will weather be? Wind or flood bigger issue?

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

Indy 70
RU 62

 

[RUBob75]

Indy 70
RU 62

I feel much better now! Proud with a negative prediction. We win 73-68

 

[RW90]

Still don't see much reason for any optimism here...

IU 68
RU 60

 

[RUJMM78]

The only advantage Rutgers has is the home court.Sadly, recent games against league rivals at the RAC has resulted in losses.Failing to win this game will make achieving a winning season highly unlikely.This is a must win game.

Rutgers 64-Indiana 61

 

[LeapinLou]

RU is a 3 1/2 point favorite and ESPN (which admittedly is a useless metric) gives us a better than 70-30 chance to win.

If nothing else, hopefully they win to keep the hope for a .500 season alive and maintain dominance over IU.

 

[zappaa]

Game will be rained out.

Flooded out would be more likely., but that’s not happening until early AM Wednesday

 

[Rufans]

Indiana 67
Rutgers 69