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How many conference wins does RU get?

S

Scarlet Blind_rivals

All-Conference
Aug 5, 2001
4,726
4,802
62
Looking at Michigan St's schedule after tonight's Northwestern game, they have @ Illinois on Thurs Jan 11th, 9pm and quick turnaround, home vs Rutgers Sat Jan 13 1pm, favors us.

Jan 9 Vs Indiana, Jan 13 @ Michigan St, Jan 17 vs Nebraska could be a three game winning streak, if we play well.
 
S

Scarlet Shack

Heisman
Feb 3, 2004
26,391
16,289
73
bac2therac said:
this seems high ceiling considering we are likely headed for a 1-6 start at best
Click to expand...
We are really really down on things …and a lot of that is totally justified .

But there is going to be some better basketball at some point , and we will think we have turned the corner , then throw out another clunker.

I’ve seen a lot worse teams than us get to 8-12….let it play out.

I might be wrong , but the negative is ruling the day .

Let it play out

Though …I will say Tuesday is a HUGE game …we need a win to get some confidence started ….
 
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B

BillyC80

Heisman
Oct 23, 2006
17,301
15,821
72
We win 7 with the team as it stands now. If Ogbole plays soon and gives us anything positive, we win one other close game. If JWill plays at least 14 games, we win an additional 2, for 10 total.
 
S

Shelby65

All-Conference
Apr 1, 2008
8,758
4,900
66
Scarlet Blind said:
I never had any prediction of us winning vs Maryland in football. I knew we were finishing 6-6 after we got own by Iowa 26-0. I'm not a huge Schiano guy 1.0 or 2.0, he's a ceiling 7-5, 8-4 guy that might have a 10-2 type season once every 4-5 years.
Click to expand...
Aside: Schiano will never see 9 or 10 wins. Never. His one dimensional game plans repel legit QB and receiver recruits, and eliminates any chance of beating any Top 25 team. The high school offense is terribly misguided.
 
B

biazza38

Heisman
Nov 18, 2012
14,663
18,082
81
Scarlet Shack said:
We are really really down on things …and a lot of that is totally justified .

But there is going to be some better basketball at some point , and we will think we have turned the corner , then throw out another clunker.

I’ve seen a lot worse teams than us get to 8-12….let it play out.

I might be wrong , but the negative is ruling the day .

Let it play out

Though …I will say Tuesday is a HUGE game …we need a win to get some confidence started ….
Click to expand...
8-12 requires us to finish 8-9
That’s not happening.
So far we’ve played one good half of basketball in our 3 conference games. I love your optimism. I wish I had it, but I’m praying for 6 at this point.
Our biggest problem is our defense and rebounding is not good. When you fall behind, you have to be able to go on multiple runs to not only get back into it, but to win the game.
Besides the fact that we go on so many scoring droughts, our defense and rebounding do not enable us to go on runs. We’re a team that is built to fall behind early and then trail the whole way while we cut the deficit to somewhere between 6-12 points. We’re simply not good enough
 
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PiscatawayMike

PiscatawayMike

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
17,539
15,637
113
Tuesday night is huge. We need a nice B1G victory. We've lost our last four B1G games at the RAC by 10 points or more. We need that winning feeling in the worst way.

A win Tuesday will get the season on track. If we win, I predict eight wins. A loss and it's likely we finish 5-15, just like last year's Ohio State club.
 
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G

Greene Rice FIG

Heisman
Dec 30, 2005
40,437
23,613
0
We are a bad team right now.....there are a some not good teams out there that will have bad nights and we will have some good ones.

i am going with 5.5 because I am split between 5 and 6
Games to circle
IND
NEB
PSU
at MD
NW
at MIN
MD
MICH
OSU

We will go 1-8 in the 9 games not listed. We will go 5-4 or 4-5 vs. this list.

Tuesday is big if goal is to avoid Wednesday. If goals are NCAAs this is a MUST game.
 
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F

fluoxetine

Heisman
Nov 11, 2012
23,529
16,898
0
bac2therac said:
maybe not 6 but more likely than 8
Click to expand...
You guys really underestimate how bad and unlucky you need to be to literally go 0 for the conference. Even Eddie's last team didn't manage it.

If you use win probabilities from Torvik
0 wins = 0.03%
1 win = 0.4%
2 wins = 2.2%
3 wins = 6.9%
4 wins = 14.5%
5 wins = 21.2%
6 wins = 22.2%
7 wins = 17.1%
8 wins = 9.7%
9 wins = 4.1%
10 wins = 1.3%
11 wins = 0.3%
12 wins = 0.05%
13-15 wins = essentially zero

So the first point at which zero wins is more likely than >=x wins happens where x = THIRTEEN. And Torvik does not think we're good, he has us rated as the third worst team in the conference and barely above the two we are ahead of (RU #102, PSU #110, MD #112).
 
F

fluoxetine

Heisman
Nov 11, 2012
23,529
16,898
0
The last team to go 0-fer in the Big Ten was Northwestern in 1999-2000 (and that was only 16 games). That team was ranked literally last in D1 in points scored per game at 51.5.
 
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R

RU MAN

Heisman
Oct 29, 2001
23,745
10,450
113
I will be optimistic and say we win 8 games. And we still don't make the NIT tourney.
 
S

Scangg

Heisman
Mar 19, 2016
25,465
49,407
113
We aren't winning 0 games. Let's steer the discussion back to reality
 
G

Greene Rice FIG

Heisman
Dec 30, 2005
40,437
23,613
0
fluoxetine said:
You guys really underestimate how bad and unlucky you need to be to literally go 0 for the conference. Even Eddie's last team didn't manage it.

If you use win probabilities from Torvik
0 wins = 0.03%
1 win = 0.4%
2 wins = 2.2%
3 wins = 6.9%
4 wins = 14.5%
5 wins = 21.2%
6 wins = 22.2%
7 wins = 17.1%
8 wins = 9.7%
9 wins = 4.1%
10 wins = 1.3%
11 wins = 0.3%
12 wins = 0.05%
13-15 wins = essentially zero

So the first point at which zero wins is more likely than >=x wins happens where x = THIRTEEN. And Torvik does not think we're good, he has us rated as the third worst team in the conference and barely above the two we are ahead of (RU #102, PSU #110, MD #112).
Click to expand...
Only flaw would be results arent completely independent of each other.

If RU loses by more than the bart spread probabilities go down in the future. If we get an injury to Cliff………we are fvcked
 
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S

Scarlet Blind_rivals

All-Conference
Aug 5, 2001
4,726
4,802
62
billgumpper said:
He is not being stupid at all, I predicted 2 which is closer to 0 than 6. This is the worst team in the Big 10.
Click to expand...
Here are the odds
0-1 50%
0-2 25%
0-3 12.5%
0-4 6.25%
0-5.3.125%
0-6 1.5625%
0-7 0.78125%
0-8 0.390625%
0-9 0.1953125%
0-10 0.09765625%
0-11 0.048828125%
0-12 0.0244140625%
0-13 0.01220703125%
0-14 0.006103515625%
0-15 0.0030517578125%
0-16 0.00152587890625%
0-17 0.000762939453125%

So yes it is pretty impossible to go 0-17 for the rest of the season. You might have better luck winning the lottery.
 
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F

fluoxetine

Heisman
Nov 11, 2012
23,529
16,898
0
Greene Rice FIG said:
Only flaw would be results arent completely independent of each other.

If RU loses by more than the bart spread probabilities go down in the future. If we get an injury to Cliff………we are fvcked
Click to expand...
This is true, but we would have to get a LOT worse for 6 wins to become less likely than 0. Like into the high 200s probably. It’s just really hard to go 0-20.
 
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