Basketball ESPN BPI projects Rutgers Basketball's remaining games

[Richie O]

https://rutgers.rivals.com/news/espn-bpi-projects-rutgers-basketball-s-remaining-games-1

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

If you take the computers at their word (or byte), according to bart there are 9 games where the expected margin is +/- less than 2 points.

There is only 1 B1G home game we favored by more than 1.8 that is PSU.

Of the 24 major conference games we could have 15 or so games be 2 possession games with less than 3 minutes left.

If things held to form (which they won't) the difference between a 12-20 and 20-12 season could be a matter of what happens in 15-20 possessions.

 

[dark_check]

If you take the computers at their word (or byte), according to bart there are 9 games where the expected margin is +/- less than 2 points.

There is only 1 B1G home game we favored by more than 1.8 that is PSU.

Of the 24 major conference games we could have 15 or so games be 2 possession games with less than 3 minutes left.

If things held to form (which they won't) the difference between a 12-20 and 20-12 season could be a matter of what happens in 15-20 possessions.

Exactly last year when this computer predicted us to cruise into the ncaas with many wins,
Including at minn

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Exactly last year when this computer predicted us to cruise into the ncaas with many wins,
Including at minn

computers still do a lot better than coins.

 

[RUtrumpet92_rivals498139]

Projection odds add up to 15.5 more wins, or 17.5 on the year. Looks like NIT unless we step it up.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Through a grand total of 3 games......

Adjusted offensive efficiency 93.13
Adjusted defensive efficiency 90.33

If you are to slot those scores based on bart's expected numbers

341th on offense
5th in defense

Raw unadjusted numbers
170 points allowed in 201 possessions

We are 31 under par playing some easy holes.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Tempo we are 311th in the nation. 33% of our games was against a team 12th in the nation last year.

As I predicted we aren't playing up tempo.

 

[RUtrumpet92_rivals498139]

Adjusted offensive efficiency 93.13
Adjusted defensive efficiency 90.33

If you are to slot those scores based on bart's expected numbers

341th on offense
5th in defense

Those efficiency numbers look very close together. Are they on a different scale? If not, why would there be 336 spots between the two for a difference of 2.8?

 

[BillyC80]

Through a grand total of 3 games......

Adjusted offensive efficiency 93.13
Adjusted defensive efficiency 90.33

If you are to slot those scores based on bart's expected numbers

341th on offense
5th in defense

Raw unadjusted numbers
170 points allowed in 201 possessions

We are 31 under par playing some easy holes.

In honor of my college days at RU, I reprogrammed this data using Fortran IV with WATFIV, and bart’s calculations are incorrect.

I’m coming up with 16 more wins in the regular season, however that is also raw and unadjusted, so there may be some wiggle room there…

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Those efficiency numbers look very close together. Are they on a different scale? If not, why would there be 336 spots between the two for a difference of 2.8?

.9 points per possession is real low

If it measures defense you are good
If it measured offense you are bad

5 th best offesnive efficiency is close to 1.2

 

[RutgersChow]

Projection odds add up to 15.5 more wins, or 17.5 on the year. Looks like NIT unless we step it up.

So much for improving our speed and shooting ability.

 

[RUtrumpet92_rivals498139]

So much for improving our speed and shooting ability.

Small sample size, let's see what happens over the next month. But you may be right.