Must start 3-0. @Mich is an automatic L; vs. Wagner is an automatic W. Can’t see us winning at Camp Randall unless our D is tremendous and our running game controls things. It’s then those next two games - vs. MSU and @Ind - that make or break our chances for a Bowl bid. November is a gauntlet - at most we want to need only one more win to get to six, otherwise I don’t think we get there. Hence a 6-2 (3-2) start is has to be (what IMO is) the realistic goal.
6-2 (3-2)
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If the defense is as good as Illinois had last year (nobody saw that coming) there are no automatic losses.
But offense needs to put up at least 21 points per game in B1G play to avoid automatic losses. Illinois averaged just over 23 points per game in B1G games.
Rutgers averaged 17 ppg, including the cupcakes, and under 12 ppg versus B1G opponents, crossing the 20 point threshold only against Michigan State and Indiana. As good as the defense was last year, and as much better as it can be this year, too often we saw the defense get exhausted after too many 3 and outs by the offense. If the offense can perform moderately well, we have a chance.
3 and outs were deadly, particularly as the season wore on.
Very rarely in the history of this program since I have been following it, which is now over 50 years, have we won every game we should in a season. Therefore, although I also think it is not unreasonable at all to expect this team win the first three games of the season, I do believe there will be at least one glitch and that we will go into the Michigan game 2-1.
A nice way of saying "Rutgers gonna Rutgers".
I too am hopeful but expect to be disappointed. Again.
Defense will be good. Offense has to make a major jump this year. Passing for 100 yards against big ten teams won't cut it
But just wait ‘til the four tight-end offense is unveiled. Jump passes, vicious downfield blocking, RPO, will have it all…
In the next two years, I think we knock off one of the big dogs too. Before you get good, you can see it improving (albeit inconsistently).
I rewatched the Spring game yesterday. Yeah, summer doldrums, hot and humid weather, nothing better to do. Anyway, the tight ends looked like good options. We shall see.
You don't think 132 yards rushing and 88 yards passing will win many games?
100 passing yards?? That's an improvement. I'll take it if there are limited turnovers and Sam Brown rushes for 150 yards/game.
150 yards/game?
You know he's never come close to that once in a single game (he had 101 against Indiana in 28 carries - 3.6 yards average).
Fans need to seriously lower expectations for Brown - especially coming off an injury.
His next 2 TD game will be his first (except for Wagner).
talking about setting up a bar, after it's set :make mine a double shot of Jack to help me believe 100 yards passing is something to feel good about.Next time I compete for the high jump, would you please set the bar for me?
It's nothing to celebrate, is it? Give me 250 yards of passing or give me death.talking about setting up a bar, after it's set :make mine a double shot of Jack to help me believe 100 yards passing is something to feel good about.
If you can rush for 150 yds/game for Rutgers...I will not set the bar..I'll actually treat you at the bar.Next time I compete for the high jump, would you please set the bar for me?
You are missing the context here. In lieu of higher passing yards, I would take 150 yards of rushing from Brown and/or any other back combo. Point is, ground control, clock management, limit turnovers. I thought it was a simple statement but glad I could further clarify fo you. Happy 4th of July!!
C'mon man, it was obvious I was referring to 100 yards of passing. Besides, 250 yds of offense is the bar?
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You are missing the point. My mind was wandering back to the days of the passing game with multiple turnovers and passing yards which could be counted on the hands and toes of two people.talking about setting up a bar, after it's set :make mine a double shot of Jack to help me believe 100 yards passing is something to feel good about.
I think it’s literally as simple as being able to playaction. We have the RBs, just need to block and force more defenders into the box. If we can give Wimsatt time and he can be accurate, the WRs should be good enough to get open versus single coverage.
I’m not hoping or expecting for a lot of pass attempts per game, but I would like to be vertical off the playaction and against man coverage. 15/22 for 220 yds passing. 35-40 rushing attempts for 150-175 yds. I think we can win averaging 24 ppg and ~400 yds of total offense.
I’m not hoping or expecting for a lot of pass attempts per game, but I would like to be vertical off the playaction and against man coverage. 15/22 for 220 yds passing. 35-40 rushing attempts for 150-175 yds. I think we can win averaging 24 ppg and ~400 yds of total offense.
Some context for those numbers.
24ppg and 400 yards of total offense are good numbers to shoot for.
But getting there won't happen with the proposed passing numbers.
220 yards on 22 attempts is 10 yards per attempt. That would have been #2 in the entire country last year.
15/22 is also 68.1% completion. That would have been #7 in the entire country.
I don't think the most efficient passing game in the country is a reasonable expectation.
If you want 220 yards per game then it's going to take a lot more than 22 attempts.
Whether people (including HC Schiano) want it or not - Rutgers needs to significantly increase it's pass attempts per game and make those attempts count in order to be successful.
Running the ball, controlling the clock, low points scored, conservative offense isn't going to work - just like it mostly hasn't worked for the last 15 years.
2022:
Minnesota
21.6 pass attempts per game (#126)
13.2 pass completions per game (#120 in overall completions - not per game)
182.2 passing yards per game (#116)
8.2 passing yards per attempt (#18)
61.2% completion (#68)
Minnesota was very effective on passing attempts (#18 overall) it seems.
But because of their low attempts and low completions - they had a very bad passing output.
How does that yards per attempt respond to more attempts?
Rutgers for comparison:
27.7 pass attempts per game (#103)
14 completions per game (#121 in overall completion - not per game. Would have been above Minnesota)
153.9 passing yards per game (#124)
5.6 yards per attempt (#124)
50.6% completion (#125)
http://www.cfbstats.com/2022/leader/national/team/offense/split01/category02/sort04.html
Or 150 yards rushing. What does that equate to, in the end? 14 points?talking about setting up a bar, after it's set :make mine a double shot of Jack to help me believe 100 yards passing is something to feel good about.
or a single shot of Wild Turkey , if 100 yards passing earns a double shot of Jack to ease the pain
The only positive was helping the Rutgers punter get national attention for punting proficiency.
Good post. I think we'll be better this year on D and O (but certainly not punting!), but it might not translate to more than 5 wins, although 6 would be really nice and getting to 6-2 might be the only way to get to 6 wins given the last 4 games.
Don't think a single person in this thread said that. The OP is basically saying Rutgers MUST go 6-2/3-2 to start to become bowl eligible. The first 8 games has our 6 most winnable games on paper. Nobody is taking anything for granted.
Northwestern, Temple, Va Tech, Michigan, Wagner, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Indiana--those 8 games decide Rutgers' bowl fate.
After that: Ohio State, Iowa, Penn State, Maryland.
The optimist in me says RU has a chance against Iowa and Maryland, but it is waaaaaaay to early to tell. In any event, it is fair to say 6 of the 8 first games has more winnable games.
This blog pretty much nails it in a nutshell:
Michigan is not an automatic loss.
We had them on the ropes for the 1st Half last season.
If our D lives up to it’s advertised billing and the O can move the ball somewhat this game will be closer than folks think.
there are no automatic loses look at the MSU game in 2004, that game proved what could be considered a sure loss by RU turned into an upset win.
Sure wins aren't guaranteed as well, the next week Rutgers had a cupcake
in New Hampshire and became, unwanted, proof that upsets happen
Not really. The other teams aren’t going to just lay down. NW and VT are not cupcakes. They can and prob will be battles. !
I’d say MSU at home is our most important game. It’s essentially the game that decides whether we bowl or not imo.
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