OT: Kentucky Derby

[MADHAT1]

Which Horse are you picking to win

2023 Kentucky Derby post position, horse, trainer, jockey, odds​

1. Hit Show, Brad Cox, Manny Franco, 30-1

2. Verifying, Brad Cox, Tyler Gaffalione, 15-1

3. Two Phil’s, Larry Rivelli, Jareth Loveberry, 12-1

4. Confidence Game, Keith Desormeaux, James Graham, 20-1

5. Tapit Trice, Todd Pletcher, Luis Saez, 5-1

6. Kingsbarns, Todd Pletcher, Jose Ortiz, 12-1

7. Reincarnate, Tim Yakteen, John Velazquez, 50-1

8. Mage, Gustavo Delgado, Javier Castellano, 15-1

9. Skinner, John Shirreffs, Juan Hernandez, 20-1

10. Practical Move, Tim Yakteen, Ramon Vazquez, 10-1

11. Disarm, Steve Asmussen, Joel Rosario, 30-1

12 Jace’s Road, Brad Cox, Florent Geroux, 50-1

13. Sun Thunder, Kenny McPeek, Brian Hernandez Jr., 50-1

14. Angel of Empire, Brad Cox, Flavien Prat, 8-1

15. Forte, Todd Pletcher, Irad Ortiz Jr., 3-1

16. Raise Cain, Ben Colebrook, Gerardo Corrales, 50-1

17. Derma Sotogake, Hidetaka Otonashi, Christophe Lemaire, 10-1

18. Rocket Can, Bill Mott, Junior Alvarado, 30-1

19. Lord Miles, Saffie Joseph Jr., Paco Lopez, 30-1

20. Continuar, Yoshito Yahagi, Ryusei Sakai, 50-1

 

[RU at the shore]

In support of my fraternity brother at Delta Sig, going with #9 Skinner

 

[T2Kplus20]

Which Horse are you picking to win

2023 Kentucky Derby post position, horse, trainer, jockey, odds​

1. Hit Show, Brad Cox, Manny Franco, 30-1

2. Verifying, Brad Cox, Tyler Gaffalione, 15-1

3. Two Phil’s, Larry Rivelli, Jareth Loveberry, 12-1

4. Confidence Game, Keith Desormeaux, James Graham, 20-1

5. Tapit Trice, Todd Pletcher, Luis Saez, 5-1

6. Kingsbarns, Todd Pletcher, Jose Ortiz, 12-1

7. Reincarnate, Tim Yakteen, John Velazquez, 50-1

8. Mage, Gustavo Delgado, Javier Castellano, 15-1

9. Skinner, John Shirreffs, Juan Hernandez, 20-1

10. Practical Move, Tim Yakteen, Ramon Vazquez, 10-1

11. Disarm, Steve Asmussen, Joel Rosario, 30-1

12 Jace’s Road, Brad Cox, Florent Geroux, 50-1

13. Sun Thunder, Kenny McPeek, Brian Hernandez Jr., 50-1

14. Angel of Empire, Brad Cox, Flavien Prat, 8-1

15. Forte, Todd Pletcher, Irad Ortiz Jr., 3-1

16. Raise Cain, Ben Colebrook, Gerardo Corrales, 50-1

17. Derma Sotogake, Hidetaka Otonashi, Christophe Lemaire, 10-1

18. Rocket Can, Bill Mott, Junior Alvarado, 30-1

19. Lord Miles, Saffie Joseph Jr., Paco Lopez, 30-1

20. Continuar, Yoshito Yahagi, Ryusei Sakai, 50-1

Which one has the best juice?

 

[RU Husky]

2-5-17 Trifecta Box

 

[MADHAT1]

8-14-6 tri box

 

[RU4Real]

Do we know which ones are in the mix?

I found one I wanted to bet on, but it turns out he's got a lower body.

 

[bac2therac]

Tapit Trice....almost always has a terrible break but his last time in the Bluegrass was his best break yet and he wore down Verifying gamely. Has answered everytime he is called upon to run

 

[Tango Two]

4 Horses Dead At Churchill Downs In Days Leading Up To Kentucky Derby​

https://710wor.iheart.com/content/2...owns-4-in-6-days-leading-up-to-kentucky-derby

https://www.wdrb.com/sports/horse-d...cle_ca324f26-e955-11ed-b796-73806868bc29.html

 

[Capiche]

$0.50 Tri 5,14,15/3,5,14,15,17/2,3,6,9,10,17
$5 Exacta Box 3,5,14,15,17

 

[GoodOl'Rutgers]

stats about wining from gate positions

 

[WhiteBus]

Who I think will win? Forte, Todd Pletcher, Irad Ortiz is a pretty good combination!
Who I would love to see win? Rocket Can, Bill Mott and Junior Alvarado. I've met Mott many times in Saratoga and have dinner, through a friend with him. Nicest guy you'd want to meet. I heard a friend of mine from Keenland now has a big part of ownership but he ain't saying. Lol superstition is big in horse racing and baseball industry.

 

[Plum Street]

Who I think will win? Forte, Todd Pletcher, Irad Ortiz is a pretty good combination!
Who I would love to see win? Rocket Can, Bill Mott and Junior Alvarado. I've met Mott many times in Saratoga and have dinner, through a friend with him. Nicest guy you'd want to meet. I heard a friend of mine from Keenland now has a big part of ownership but he ain't saying. Lol superstition is big in horse racing and baseball industry.

Does rocket can have a chance?

 

[WhiteBus]

Does rocket can have a chance?

Any horse has a "chance". At 30-1 he is definitely a long shot but still has a chance. Once morning line offs get past the 50-1 odds the chance are almost slim to none. There is always value in the Derby mainly because 20 horses is way too many and the favorites often can get stuck in traffic.

 

[wicker]

preferring the 14 Angel of Empire with consideration to the 3, 6, 10 and 17. The Japanese are on the cusp after years of hearing the same about Godolphin

 

[runrutgersrun]

Which Horse are you picking to win

2023 Kentucky Derby post position, horse, trainer, jockey, odds​

1. Hit Show, Brad Cox, Manny Franco, 30-1

2. Verifying, Brad Cox, Tyler Gaffalione, 15-1

3. Two Phil’s, Larry Rivelli, Jareth Loveberry, 12-1

4. Confidence Game, Keith Desormeaux, James Graham, 20-1

5. Tapit Trice, Todd Pletcher, Luis Saez, 5-1

6. Kingsbarns, Todd Pletcher, Jose Ortiz, 12-1

7. Reincarnate, Tim Yakteen, John Velazquez, 50-1

8. Mage, Gustavo Delgado, Javier Castellano, 15-1

9. Skinner, John Shirreffs, Juan Hernandez, 20-1

10. Practical Move, Tim Yakteen, Ramon Vazquez, 10-1

11. Disarm, Steve Asmussen, Joel Rosario, 30-1

12 Jace’s Road, Brad Cox, Florent Geroux, 50-1

13. Sun Thunder, Kenny McPeek, Brian Hernandez Jr., 50-1

14. Angel of Empire, Brad Cox, Flavien Prat, 8-1

15. Forte, Todd Pletcher, Irad Ortiz Jr., 3-1

16. Raise Cain, Ben Colebrook, Gerardo Corrales, 50-1

17. Derma Sotogake, Hidetaka Otonashi, Christophe Lemaire, 10-1

18. Rocket Can, Bill Mott, Junior Alvarado, 30-1

19. Lord Miles, Saffie Joseph Jr., Paco Lopez, 30-1

20. Continuar, Yoshito Yahagi, Ryusei Sakai, 50-1

Thank you for the post with all these links in the same place. Now I'll show my expertise...gonna bet on Two Phil's in honor of our favorite waiter at our favorite local Diner lol. GO PHIL! GO RU!

 

[WhiteBus]

Thank you for the post with all these links in the same place. Now I'll show my expertise...gonna bet on Two Phil's in honor of our favorite waiter at our favorite local Diner lol. GO PHIL! GO RU!

Great handicapping angle! Horses named after favorite waiters never lose. Thanks for the tip!
Speaking of diners. I've been going to Egg Harbor City diner the fast few years while riding the bike from Lindenwold PATCO station to Atlantic City via Charlie's in Somers Point. Including today. Great diner! Perfect rest stop for the ride! Unfortunately no one that works there has the same name as a horse in the Derby.

 

[wicker]

10 Practical Move is a scratch and 21 Cyclone Mischief draws in. he's not impossible but will be overplayed as people use the angle that worked last year

 

[GSGS]

Can’t believe there’s no promotion associated with this year being the 50th anniversary of the greatest Derby of all time … which was followed by the greatest Preakness of all time, and then the Belmont, the single greatest performance of all time by a thoroughbred.

 

[Capiche]

Kentucky Horse Racing Commission scratches all Saffie Joseph horses following recent fatalities. Lord Miles out and Mandarin Hero in. Interesting horse to include in exotics.

 

[WhiteBus]

Kentucky Horse Racing Commission scratches all Saffie Joseph horses following recent fatalities. Lord Miles out and Mandarin Hero in. Interesting horse to include in exotics.

I can't blame them. Very weird issue went on there.

 

[CollegeSenior]

Kentucky Horse Racing Commission scratches all Saffie Joseph horses following recent fatalities. Lord Miles out and Mandarin Hero in. Interesting horse to include in exotics.

Somebody finally doing something about Joseph.

 

[SkilletHead2]

Gotta go for Two Phil's. I love a horse that is a spelling error.

(Edit: Moms Skillethead points out that maybe two guys named Phil own it, in which case it's OK.)

 

[Tango Two]

Trainer Of 2 Horses That Died Before Kentucky Derby Suspended​

https://710wor.iheart.com/content/2...ses-that-died-before-kentucky-derby-suspended

 

[Randal7]

Which Horse are you picking to win

2023 Kentucky Derby post position, horse, trainer, jockey, odds​

1. Hit Show, Brad Cox, Manny Franco, 30-1

2. Verifying, Brad Cox, Tyler Gaffalione, 15-1

3. Two Phil’s, Larry Rivelli, Jareth Loveberry, 12-1

4. Confidence Game, Keith Desormeaux, James Graham, 20-1

5. Tapit Trice, Todd Pletcher, Luis Saez, 5-1

6. Kingsbarns, Todd Pletcher, Jose Ortiz, 12-1

7. Reincarnate, Tim Yakteen, John Velazquez, 50-1

8. Mage, Gustavo Delgado, Javier Castellano, 15-1

9. Skinner, John Shirreffs, Juan Hernandez, 20-1

10. Practical Move, Tim Yakteen, Ramon Vazquez, 10-1

11. Disarm, Steve Asmussen, Joel Rosario, 30-1

12 Jace’s Road, Brad Cox, Florent Geroux, 50-1

13. Sun Thunder, Kenny McPeek, Brian Hernandez Jr., 50-1

14. Angel of Empire, Brad Cox, Flavien Prat, 8-1

15. Forte, Todd Pletcher, Irad Ortiz Jr., 3-1

16. Raise Cain, Ben Colebrook, Gerardo Corrales, 50-1

17. Derma Sotogake, Hidetaka Otonashi, Christophe Lemaire, 10-1

18. Rocket Can, Bill Mott, Junior Alvarado, 30-1

19. Lord Miles, Saffie Joseph Jr., Paco Lopez, 30-1

20. Continuar, Yoshito Yahagi, Ryusei Sakai, 50-1

I like the 1 and 6… especially the 1. A Brad cox horse with manny Franco jockeying at 30-1?! Sign me up

The 6 is good too you’ve got Jose Ortiz on there and a pletcher horse.

I love both those picks. Bet em across

 

[WhiteBus]

Four horses scratched. Field down to 19.

 

[Randal7]

Favorite Forte scratched. Big moves

 

[bac2therac]

Wow

 

[Capiche]

AOE and Tapit Trice currently at 9-2. Derma Sotogake and Two Phil's both at 7-1.

 

[Randal7]

AOE and Tapit Trice currently at 9-2. Derma Sotogake and Two Phil's both at 7-1.

I could wind up looking dumb here, but I’m just gonna come out and say it — the further the horse travels for the derby, generally, the worse they do. I expect those Japanese horses to get absolutely rocked today

 

[Tango Two]

Early Kentucky Derby favorite scratched from race; 18 horses still to run​

https://fox4kc.com/sports/early-kentucky-derby-favorite-scratched-from-race-18-horses-still-to-run

 

[Randal7]

I could wind up looking dumb here, but I’m just gonna come out and say it — the further the horse travels for the derby, generally, the worse they do. I expect those Japanese horses to get absolutely rocked today

There ya go. Another complete dud of a performance

 

[Capiche]

There ya go. Another complete dud of a performance

You can include a lot of American horses in that group.

 

[Randal7]

You can include a lot of American horses in that group.

Yes. But those Japanese horses were DOA (no pun intended). The Japanese owner didn’t even look bothered … he just looked happy to be there.

I thought Japanese culture was based on pride above all else. fly your horse 3k miles to get rocked seems antithetical to that. I guess he must have thought he had a shot? Clearly was wrong there tho

 

[ashokan]

Derby is a crazy race
20+ horses and a lot of them never ran that distance
Race start looks like a fire drill that might turn dangerous.
Secretariat spent most of the race locked-up in the rear
Seems like a lot of K. Derbey races are won by horses coming-on from behind down the stretch

 

[Luvscarletknights]

8-14-6 tri box

Got the winner

 

[Capiche]

Yes. But those Japanese horses were DOA (no pun intended). The Japanese owner didn’t even look bothered … he just looked happy to be there.

I thought Japanese culture was based on pride above all else. fly your horse 3k miles to get rocked seems antithetical to that. I guess he must have thought he had a shot? Clearly was wrong there tho

Derma Sotogake ran 6th, a respectable performance in an 18 horse field. He was making a move at the top of he stretch and hung. Japanese horses have had recent success at Dubai, Saudi Arabia and the Breeders Cup. The only thing I would change is have their horses run in more Kentucky Derby prep races to get better acclimated to American racing. The Japanese are not going away.

 

[Randal7]

Derma Sotogake ran 6th, a respectable performance in an 18 horse field. He was making a move at the top of he stretch and hung. Japanese horses have had recent success at Dubai, Saudi Arabia and the Breeders Cup. The only thing I would change is have their horses run in more Kentucky Derby prep races to get better acclimated to American racing. The Japanese are not going away.

He was near the back of the pack essentially the entire race and never threatened. For an 8-1 that traveled from the island of Japan that’s a disappointment. I have no doubt they’ll keep coming. But until they come close I won’t hold my breath on them winning one

 

[Capiche]

He was near the back of the pack essentially the entire race and never threatened. For an 8-1 that traveled from the island of Japan that’s a disappointment. I have no doubt they’ll keep coming. But until they come close I won’t hold my breath on them winning one

Did you bet the race?

 

[Randal7]

Did you bet the race?

Yes. I had the 1 and 6. I had a couple trifecta combos with the 8 but totally whiffed on the 3

 

[WhiteBus]

He was near the back of the pack essentially the entire race and never threatened. For an 8-1 that traveled from the island of Japan that’s a disappointment. I have no doubt they’ll keep coming. But until they come close I won’t hold my breath on them winning one

Why do you think Japan's horses are worse then the European horses, or from any other county? Most do not do well in the Derby. No European horses have won the Derby. Why is your focus against Japan horses? Could it be there are 20 damn horses in the race? Probably!