B1G Tier Rankings

[whofrewdatmataRU13]

I feel like in the past 5-6 years the teams in the league haven't been closer skill wise. You pretty much have Purdue running away with the league, 12 other teams in the middle of the pack who can beat each other on any given night, then there is Minnesota in the basement. In past years there were always around 4 teams who had no chance beating the top 4 in the league, not the case this year.

 

[Scangg]

2 games separate 11 teams in conference play

 

[bac2therac]

with those 11, i would seperate them a bit

I think there are some schools who done somewhat more than the others

top of that tier.....Rutgers. Michigan State, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio State (because they beat RU and came within 2 of Pur), Illinois
next grouping....Northwestern, Maryland, Penn State, Michigan, Wisconsin. I just feel there ever so slightly behind the others not only in league play but non conference play

 

[rubigtimenow]

with those 11, i would seperate them a bit

I think there are some schools who done somewhat more than the others

top of that tier.....Rutgers. Michigan State, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio State (because they beat RU and came within 2 of Pur), Illinois
next grouping....Northwestern, Maryland, Penn State, Michigan, Wisconsin. I just feel there ever so slightly behind the others not only in league play but non conference play

This breakup exactly.
They Rutgers group in “great” bucket per graphic above.
The Northwestern group in “good”.
Bump Nebraska down to “mediocre” for now.

 

[bac2therac]

And it could change over the next couple of games. Big stretch for everyone to position themselves at the midway point

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Saturday is moving day on the PGA tour. The next 2 weeks is moving time for B1G. In 2 weeks I'd be shocked if things didn't shake out a little.

 

[bac2therac]

lets dive deep...

Purdue: at Michigan, Michigan State. A sweep puts them in a very good spot to be the Big 10 champ.

Rutgers: Penn State, at Iowa. Big 2 game stretch that they almost have to go 1-1, go 2-0 and they are well positioned to be competing for that double bye, go 0-2 and you want to focus on just making the NCAA tourney

Michigan State: Iowa, at Purdue. Again they almost have to beat Iowa at home because I dont see them beating Purdue.

Indiana: at Minnesota, Ohio State. On a roll but cannot slip up now on the road. Should be going 2-0 which really puts them in a nice spot but Indiana seems to do an Indiana all the time

Illinois: Ohio State, at Wisconsin. Again another one needing to go 1-1 to maintain positioning. Probably equal shot to go 0-2, 1-1, 2-0.

Ohio State: at Ilinois, at Indiana. Critical two game road trip where they MUST find one win here or they are burying themselves in league and their NCAA resume as well.

Wisconsin: at Maryland, Illinois. Really cannot afford to go 0-2 so have to pick up a win here. 2-0 would revitalize the season

Iowa: at Michigan State, Rutgers. Need one of these two, 0-2 and they are starting to find themselves in a hole. 2-0 can happen

Penn State: at Rutgers, Michigan. A chance to prove themselves by winning both. Need to find one because 0-2 is going to put them in tough spot

Northwestern: at Nebraska, Minnesota. This is their soft stretch of the schedule. Win both and they are 6-3 likely 2nd place. The schedule is brutal after this. Must at least go 1-1 given whats coming

Maryland: Wisconsin, Nebraska. If they want to be taken seriously, these are the two games they need to win and they are both at home.

Michigan: Purdue, at Penn State. Desperately in need of a big win. Opportunity but can they do it, if not they almost have to beat Penn State or they slip to .500 overall.

Nebraska: Northwestern, at Maryland. Not really a player for the NCAA but if they can sweep it at least gives them a path going forward.

Minnesota: Indiana, at Northwestern. Tough to find wins eh?

 

[RUEd]

lets dive deep...

Purdue: at Michigan, Michigan State. A sweep puts them in a very good spot to be the Big 10 champ.

Rutgers: Penn State, at Iowa. Big 2 game stretch that they almost have to go 1-1, go 2-0 and they are well positioned to be competing for that double bye, go 0-2 and you want to focus on just making the NCAA tourney

Michigan State: Iowa, at Purdue. Again they almost have to beat Iowa at home because I dont see them beating Purdue.

Indiana: at Minnesota, Ohio State. On a roll but cannot slip up now on the road. Should be going 2-0 which really puts them in a nice spot but Indiana seems to do an Indiana all the time

Illinois: Ohio State, at Wisconsin. Again another one needing to go 1-1 to maintain positioning. Probably equal shot to go 0-2, 1-1, 2-0.

Ohio State: at Ilinois, at Indiana. Critical two game road trip where they MUST find one win here or they are burying themselves in league and their NCAA resume as well.

Wisconsin: at Maryland, Illinois. Really cannot afford to go 0-2 so have to pick up a win here. 2-0 would revitalize the season

Iowa: at Michigan State, Rutgers. Need one of these two, 0-2 and they are starting to find themselves in a hole. 2-0 can happen

Penn State: at Rutgers, Michigan. A chance to prove themselves by winning both. Need to find one because 0-2 is going to put them in tough spot

Northwestern: at Nebraska, Minnesota. This is their soft stretch of the schedule. Win both and they are 6-3 likely 2nd place. The schedule is brutal after this. Must at least go 1-1 given whats coming

Maryland: Wisconsin, Nebraska. If they want to be taken seriously, these are the two games they need to win and they are both at home.

Michigan: Purdue, at Penn State. Desperately in need of a big win. Opportunity but can they do it, if not they almost have to beat Penn State or they slip to .500 overall.

Nebraska: Northwestern, at Maryland. Not really a player for the NCAA but if they can sweep it at least gives them a path going forward.

Minnesota: Indiana, at Northwestern. Tough to find wins eh?

Thanks Bac. I heard yesterday that NW has 6 games in 12 days. I know they young but still….

 

[RUsojo]

Everyone is shifted up at least 1 row if not two rows too high in that graphic probably with one or two exceptions lol

 

[rubigtimenow]

lets dive deep...

Purdue: at Michigan, Michigan State. A sweep puts them in a very good spot to be the Big 10 champ.

Rutgers: Penn State, at Iowa. Big 2 game stretch that they almost have to go 1-1, go 2-0 and they are well positioned to be competing for that double bye, go 0-2 and you want to focus on just making the NCAA tourney

Michigan State: Iowa, at Purdue. Again they almost have to beat Iowa at home because I dont see them beating Purdue.

Indiana: at Minnesota, Ohio State. On a roll but cannot slip up now on the road. Should be going 2-0 which really puts them in a nice spot but Indiana seems to do an Indiana all the time

Illinois: Ohio State, at Wisconsin. Again another one needing to go 1-1 to maintain positioning. Probably equal shot to go 0-2, 1-1, 2-0.

Ohio State: at Ilinois, at Indiana. Critical two game road trip where they MUST find one win here or they are burying themselves in league and their NCAA resume as well.

Wisconsin: at Maryland, Illinois. Really cannot afford to go 0-2 so have to pick up a win here. 2-0 would revitalize the season

Iowa: at Michigan State, Rutgers. Need one of these two, 0-2 and they are starting to find themselves in a hole. 2-0 can happen

Penn State: at Rutgers, Michigan. A chance to prove themselves by winning both. Need to find one because 0-2 is going to put them in tough spot

Northwestern: at Nebraska, Minnesota. This is their soft stretch of the schedule. Win both and they are 6-3 likely 2nd place. The schedule is brutal after this. Must at least go 1-1 given whats coming

Maryland: Wisconsin, Nebraska. If they want to be taken seriously, these are the two games they need to win and they are both at home.

Michigan: Purdue, at Penn State. Desperately in need of a big win. Opportunity but can they do it, if not they almost have to beat Penn State or they slip to .500 overall.

Nebraska: Northwestern, at Maryland. Not really a player for the NCAA but if they can sweep it at least gives them a path going forward.

Minnesota: Indiana, at Northwestern. Tough to find wins eh?

I follow the big ten pretty closely including looking at upcoming schedules etc and I’m in complete agreement with this and your big ten tiers in that post.
I also know you’re tracking things deeper than I am even though I know I’m spending too much time on it myself.

 

[bac2therac]

Everyone is shifted up at least 1 row if not two rows too high in that graphic probably with one or two exceptions lol

that is true...the great teams should be in the good catagory

Nebby is not good, that is a mediocre team

 

[bac2therac]

I follow the big ten pretty closely including looking at upcoming schedules etc and I’m in complete agreement with this and your big ten tiers in that post.
I also know you’re tracking things deeper than I am even though I know I’m spending too much time on it myself.

schools can come back from bad starts but in a year like this where almost every game is a toss up you want to really get ahead of the game in the first half. For Rutgers, the good thing is its relatively "soft" stretch is in the back half. Northwester, Nebraska, Minnesota at home and Minnesota on the road. If you are a tourney team you win all 4 of those games. So if RU can get to at least 6-4 after this week, then you take that 4-0 and already you are at 10 wins and looking to grab more wins in the tougher 6 remaining.

The most in trouble this week looks to be Ohio State with 2 road games against desperate teams. The most favorable this week looks like Northwestern.

 

[cubuffsdoug_rivals]

with those 11, i would seperate them a bit

I think there are some schools who done somewhat more than the others

top of that tier.....Rutgers. Michigan State, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio State (because they beat RU and came within 2 of Pur), Illinois
next grouping....Northwestern, Maryland, Penn State, Michigan, Wisconsin. I just feel there ever so slightly behind the others not only in league play but non conference play

Ohio State didn't beat Rutgers. The refs (& the B1G officials) beat Rutgers.

 

[fluoxetine]

Northwester, Nebraska, Minnesota at home and Minnesota on the road. If you are a tourney team you win all 4 of those games.

This is the kind of thinking that leads to board freakouts in the future. A true bubble team drops one of those 4 more often than not. Even a top-20 team like we style ourselves as is still almost 50/50 to drop one of those.

Torvik (who has us #15 remember) has
Northwestern 79%
Nebraska 89%
Minnesota 95%
at Minnesota 85%

That is an expected 3.48-0.52, with 57% chance to go 4-0

For a true bubble team that is
Northwestern 68%
Nebraska 81%
Minnesota 91%
at Minnesota 76%

which is an expected 3.16-0.84, with 38% chance to go 4-0

 

[bac2therac]

This is the kind of thinking that leads to board freakouts in the future. A true bubble team drops one of those 4 more often than not. Even a top-20 team like we style ourselves as is still almost 50/50 to drop one of those.

Torvik (who has us #15 remember) has
Northwestern 79%
Nebraska 89%
Minnesota 95%
at Minnesota 85%

That is an expected 3.48-0.52, with 57% chance to go 4-0

For a true bubble team that is
Northwestern 68%
Nebraska 81%
Minnesota 91%
at Minnesota 76%

which is an expected 3.16-0.84, with 38% chance to go 4-0

who wants to be a bubble team. If you a true ncaa team you dont lose those games or else you turn into a bubble team

 

[fluoxetine]

who wants to be a bubble team. If you a true ncaa team you dont lose those games or else you turn into a bubble team

Nobody wants to be a bubble team. Look at the top half of my post. Even as the #15 it’s only like 57% to win all of those.

 

[bac2therac]

good thing Torvik does not suit up

 

[kcg88]

Nobody wants to be a bubble team. Look at the top half of my post. Even as the #15 it’s only like 57% to win all of those.

EDIT I meant to quote bac, not you.

Wisconsin won the Big Ten last year and lost at home to Nebraska. Illinois lost at Maryland.

Michigan State went 28-6 and made the Final Four in 2019. They lost at 11-20 Illinois.

Math is math.

 

[RUJMM78]

Ohio State didn't beat Rutgers. The refs (& the B1G officials) beat Rutgers.

Spot on comment but sadly the truth has been ignored and Rutgers now has a 5-3 B1G Ten record instead of 6-2 .which leaves a very small separation from other teams.

 

[bac2therac]

my point stands, if peeps want to argue fine. Rutgers needs to be going 4-0 in those 4 games

 

[kcg88]

my point stands, if peeps want to argue fine. Rutgers needs to be going 4-0 in those 4 games

"Needs to" for what? To make the tournament? It certainly makes things easier but we overcame a home loss to freaking Lafayette last year to make it. A road loss to Nebraska is nothing compared to that.

Do they need to 4-0 in those games to get a top 4 or 5 seed? Yeah probably but that's a different conversation.

 

[bac2therac]

well then I will say its better for Rutgers to go 0-4 in those games and then just go 6-0 in the other games

 

[RutgHoops]

Northwestern has won @MSU, v. Ill, @Indiana and v. Wisc.

Nebraska has won v Creighton, v Iowa and v OSU.

Are all seven of those “bubble teams”?

 

[ClassOf02v.2]

One thing is for sure — margins are razor thin in the B1G this year, more so than normal years.

 

[AreYouNUTS]

Illinois and Wisconsin probably shouldn't be on the "great" tier IMHO.