Tuesday is gonna be a big test

ScooterSports

All-Conference
Jul 5, 2022
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The strengths Penn State has are basically built to beat us. Some statistical analysis I’ve done basically confirms what we all see. We struggle against teams that can shoot. The big 3 stats that correlate to beating us in B1G play so far are three pointers made, free throw percentage, and turnovers committed. Penn St is 16th in the country in free throw percentage at 77.6%. They’re 5th in the country in three pointers made with almost 11 per game. And they are number 1 in the country in turnovers committed, turning it over less than 9 times per game. Let’s see if we can make some adjustments, if not Tuesday won’t be very fun.
 

fluoxetine

Heisman
Nov 11, 2012
23,529
16,898
0
The strengths Penn State has are basically built to beat us. Some statistical analysis I’ve done basically confirms what we all see. We struggle against teams that can shoot. The big 3 stats that correlate to beating us in B1G play so far are three pointers made, free throw percentage, and turnovers committed. Penn St is 16th in the country in free throw percentage at 77.6%. They’re 5th in the country in three pointers made with almost 11 per game. And they are number 1 in the country in turnovers committed, turning it over less than 9 times per game. Let’s see if we can make some adjustments, if not Tuesday won’t be very fun.
You needed to do “statistical analysis” to conclude that teams that have more three pointers made are more likely to beat us?
 

goru7

All-American
Dec 12, 2005
6,479
7,800
113
You guys are crazy giving Penn State all the credit. Caleb will be assigned to Pickett and will disrupt him. Once that happens , then Funk and Lundy are not as effective. How are they going match up with us ? They cannot. It will be a well contested competitive game but we should prevail by more than the point spread. Rutgers after a loss is normally big time money.
 

rob kight

All-American
Oct 22, 2020
5,036
6,419
113
Purdue back to Number 1 in the country and guess who is the only team to have beat them? Put the MSU GAME in rear view mirror and beat PSU Tuesday and get back on track.
 
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Scangg

Heisman
Mar 19, 2016
25,469
49,418
113
Caleb on Pickett should be enough to get us the W. Let them drive. Stay on shooters
 
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RUChoppin

Heisman
Dec 1, 2006
19,270
13,695
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They shoot well from the outside... and their offense is almost entirely predicated on that. They have shot 47% of their shots from the arc (12th in 3PA, 336th in 2PA) and don't really get to the line (362nd in FTA). They are 9-0 in games where they've shot better than .400 from the arc, and 3-6 in games where they've shot under that.

Myles Dread has taken 95% of his shots from the arc in 23 min/g (only five 2PA all year), and Andrew Funk has taken 76% of his shots from the arc in 34 min/g.

They don't really play with a center, either - running with a smaller, guard-centric lineup. I have a feeling we'll see Mag at the 5 for stretches of the game.

35.7 min - Pickett; 6-4, 202
33.8 min - Funk; 6-6, 219
29.6 min - Lundy; 6-5, 188
27.2 min - Wynter; 6-2, 175
22.8 min - Dread; 6-4, 220
14.9 min - Njie; 6-10, 237
12.5 min - Dorsey; 6-7, 230
11.4 min - Mahaffey; 6-6, 200
10.1 min - Johnson; 6-3, 175
 
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Kbee3

Heisman
Aug 23, 2002
43,724
35,255
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They shoot well from the outside... and their offense is almost entirely predicated on that. They have shot 47% of their shots from the arc (12th in 3PA, 336th in 2PA) and don't really get to the line (362nd in FTA). They are 9-0 in games where they've shot better than .400 from the arc, and 3-6 in games where they've shot under that.

Myles Dread has taken 95% of his shots from the arc in 23 min/g (only five 2PA all year), and Andrew Funk has taken 76% of his shots from the arc in 34 min/g.

They don't really play with a center, either - running with a smaller, guard-centric lineup. I have a feeling we'll see Mag at the 5 for stretches of the game.

35.7 min - Pickett; 6-4, 202
33.8 min - Funk; 6-6, 219
29.6 min - Lundy; 6-5, 188
27.2 min - Wynter; 6-2, 175
22.8 min - Dread; 6-4, 220
14.9 min - Njie; 6-10, 237
12.5 min - Dorsey; 6-7, 230
11.4 min - Mahaffey; 6-6, 200
10.1 min - Johnson; 6-3, 175
Feed Cliff.
 
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RUChoppin

Heisman
Dec 1, 2006
19,270
13,695
0
No. Cliff needs to have a dominate game. He is due

He'll also need to defend Funk far large stretches, who puts up 5.6 threes per game. Their starting center is a freshman who only plays 15 min/game on the season, though he's played a bit closer to 20 lately.
 
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Kbee3

Heisman
Aug 23, 2002
43,724
35,255
0
He'll also need to defend Lundy far large stretches, who puts up 5.6 threes per game. Their starting center is a freshman who only plays 15 min/game on the season, though he's played a bit closer to 20 lately.
And we've got a future NBA caliber junior center.
 

RUChoppin

Heisman
Dec 1, 2006
19,270
13,695
0
Looking at the performance of some other big centers:

Edey had 30/13 in 36 min
Crowl had 21/11 in 33 min
Dickinson had 17/6 in 32 min
 

RUChoppin

Heisman
Dec 1, 2006
19,270
13,695
0
And we've got a future NBA caliber junior center.

Yes, but for 20-30 min of the game, Penn State likely won't have a true center in and will be running with 3 guards and 2 small forwards. Omoruyi hasn't always fared well in that setup, as it pulls him away from the basket defensively and limits his rebounds/blocks.
 

Kbee3

Heisman
Aug 23, 2002
43,724
35,255
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Yes, but for 20-30 min of the game, Penn State likely won't have a true center in and will be running with 3 guards and 2 small forwards. Omoruyi hasn't always fared well in that setup, as it pulls him away from the basket defensively and limits his rebounds/blocks.
But it should be great for Cliff's offense.
 
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RUChoppin

Heisman
Dec 1, 2006
19,270
13,695
0
Their starting center is Kjie
But he doesn't get starters minutes. He's only had 20 or more minutes 3 times this year, with his highest being 23. He scored a total of six points over the last five games. There's a good chance that Funk or Dorsey will be the tallest Nit on the floor for about half the game.
 
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RUJMM78

Heisman
Jul 25, 2001
26,352
12,652
113
Yes, fans should be worried playing any opponent that has multiple 3 point shooters.Michigan State and Iowa are recent examples.Any opponent that scores at least 70 points is a real problem for Rutgers because of their long scoring droughts.Rutgers must defend the home court in all remaining games.
 
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FIJI'83

All-Conference
Jul 7, 2008
3,267
3,936
66
I believe we play most effectively when pressing the ball baseline to baseline. We create turnovers when pressing which equates to transition points. The opposition tends to wilt under that pressure especially at home in the cauldron of the Trapezoid.
 
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RU-ROCS

All-American
Feb 5, 2003
12,510
7,770
113
The strengths Penn State has are basically built to beat us. Some statistical analysis I’ve done basically confirms what we all see. We struggle against teams that can shoot. The big 3 stats that correlate to beating us in B1G play so far are three pointers made, free throw percentage, and turnovers committed. Penn St is 16th in the country in free throw percentage at 77.6%. They’re 5th in the country in three pointers made with almost 11 per game. And they are number 1 in the country in turnovers committed, turning it over less than 9 times per game. Let’s see if we can make some adjustments, if not Tuesday won’t be very fun.

Exactly. The MSU game was a clinic on how to exploit RU’s aggressive help defense to generate wide-open three pointers. And MSU is not nearly as efficient from 3 as PSU is.
 
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RU-ROCS

All-American
Feb 5, 2003
12,510
7,770
113
Agree with all those who say RU’s offense must come alive to win this game. If Cam returns to form, Cliff dominates the post and Paul can score more than 10, then I think RU will be fine. But, relying on our offense is not our strong suit, especially if we can’t get TOs and easy buckets against a PSU team that just doesn’t turn it over.
 

RUChoppin

Heisman
Dec 1, 2006
19,270
13,695
0
I'd say we should pressure the ball in the backcourt to shorten their shot clock, blanket Pickett and run them off the line. There's no big to double in this one, so we don't need to dig down off the shooters. They have a lot of assists, so they move the ball well on the perimeter - just need to extend the defense and force them inside to take 2's instead of 3's.

They average 74.5 ppg.... 33 from 2P, 33 from 3P, 9 from FT. And of their 33 points from 2's, 12 come from Pickett. In conference, they've averaged 70.3.... 31 from 2P, 31 from 3P, 8 from FT; and 14 of their 31 pts from 2P come from Pickett. If we can keep McConnell on him to prevent him from getting the ball and stymie him when he does, then force the others to come inside to score, that could be a recipe to gum up their offense.

As far as our offense, we'll be bigger than them at almost every position and should be forcing the ball inside. They don't get many steals (326th), and they're terrible on the offensive glass (362nd). Mag/Hyatt/McConnell/Mulcahy should be able to operate in the post, and Omoruyi can clean up the glass and get putback dunks. And if they sell out to defend the paint, Spencer should get good looks.
 
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Miggins

All-Conference
Jul 25, 2001
1,725
2,677
112
Penn State really plays a smart strategy given their roster. On offense they are on the extremes, horrible rebounding, a ton of threes, extremely low turnovers and good shooting three. Do not draw fouls and go to the line On defense they play soft, they sit back and give you jump shots, 3's and long 2's (70% of the shots they allow are "far 2's or 3's), they don't get turnovers but they rebound fairly well.

More or less, they want to get into a game of horse with you and win.

Outside of the obvious (their 3-point % vs. ours), really interesting battle is turnovers.
Strength on strength. Penn State offensively is best in the country at not turning it over, we are 14th best at causing turnovers.

Think we have a really interesting choice on defense. Do we double and trap and believe we can get them into turnovers? The risk here is teams that pass well, do not turn it over and can shoot 3s has been our poison. Or do we perhaps go straight man, with little double teams? Cliff is the help if our man gets beat on penetration. Their center does not score, so if he goes outside let him. Think this could stop the easy catch and 3 shots, dare them to try and penetrate.
 
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RUChoppin

Heisman
Dec 1, 2006
19,270
13,695
0
Penn State really plays a smart strategy given their roster. On offense they are on the extremes, horrible rebounding, a ton of threes, extremely low turnovers and good shooting three. Do not draw fouls and go to the line On defense they play soft, they sit back and give you jump shots, 3's and long 2's (70% of the shots they allow are "far 2's or 3's), they don't get turnovers but they rebound fairly well.

More or less, they want to get into a game of horse with you and win.

Outside of the obvious (their 3-point % vs. ours), really interesting battle is turnovers.
Strength on strength. Penn State offensively is best in the country at not turning it over, we are 14th best at causing turnovers.

Think we have a really interesting choice on defense. Do we double and trap and believe we can get them into turnovers? The risk here is teams that pass well, do not turn it over and can shoot 3s has been our poison. Or do we perhaps go straight man, with little double teams? Cliff is the help if our man gets beat on penetration. Their center does not score, so if he goes outside let him. Think this could stop the easy catch and 3 shots, dare them to try and penetrate.

I think we're going to play a lot of switching man 1-5 and/or fighting over screens, and force them back from the line. If we're going to give up threes, let them be 25-footers and not 22-footers. That will mean playing Mag at the 5 for stretches, I think, going Mulcahy/Spencer/McConnell/Hyatt/Mag. Even Hyatt/Mag/McConnell should be able to bully them underneath for offensive boards. My guess is we don't see much of Reiber/Wolf in this game, as they aren't really perimeter defenders.

If they want us in the mid-range shooting game, McConnell/Mag/Hyatt should be able to score in that 5-15 foot range, with Omoruyi cleaning up the glass for dunks and Spencer as an outlet outside.

Let Omoruyi go up against Njie while he's in, and let Mag be our 5th man when Funk is the tallest Nit on the floor.

Harassing them in the backcourt and at the arc will make passes more difficult, and less opportunity for the easy catch and shoot looks. As long as McConnell doesn't need anyone to double Pickett, that will allow us to stay more honest on the shooters.
 
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njrexguy

All-Conference
Aug 27, 2007
2,228
1,653
113
Cold shooting like against MSU means we lose.
Team runs hot and cold. You never know which team will show up.
When we're good, we're good. When When we're bad, we're bad.
Consistency separates the good, the bad and the ugly.
 
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