OT: Bitcoin, Altcoins, NFT's & All Things Crypto
- Thread starter bob-loblaw
- Start date
Definitely interesting levels (and artificially low due to EM). Can't blame people for starting to buy now.
This might not be the big trigger moment, but I think it is another block of the foundation which will get us there.
And it does seem people have been able to sort that out (granted I'm not watching the hearings).
What I hear quite often is "I believe in the technology of block chain". And some of the real crypto heads have just doubled down on BTC, while shunning junk coins. What I haven't been hearing is "crypto is dead".
Oddly I feel the legitimacy of blockchain is being reinforced on the backside of the FTX collapse.
First- I wish I invested early and other hand, glad I never invested...this is from a very "ignorant" crypto follower.
But, I do ask- bitcoin is in the 17k area now- what would be the next 2 year projection?
And after all the SBF crap- is there a real future or does he crash it all down?
Another thought from me and would love to hear opinion- and I ask because over the years, I really wanted to get into it...why does it feel like crypto is just Musk's playground. It seems that he uses it at his will and he is the market changer.
But, I do ask- bitcoin is in the 17k area now- what would be the next 2 year projection?
And after all the SBF crap- is there a real future or does he crash it all down?
Another thought from me and would love to hear opinion- and I ask because over the years, I really wanted to get into it...why does it feel like crypto is just Musk's playground. It seems that he uses it at his will and he is the market changer.
I'd ignore Musk on this front. It's more sideshow then anything.
But there are certainly various opinions on where BTC and crypto is going. It has held at 17K, but I don't think anyone would be surprised if it fell further. Especially if the stock market has a sell off in the first half of 2023, which many predict.
If your interested in getting into the space, I'd suggest doing your research, I figure you have plenty of time to do so before it goes on a run again.
I'm not trying to compare the two exactly (obviously there are huge differences). But, so much of the "if Congress would just regulate" conversation reminds me of the discussion around on-line poker back in the mid 2000s......
...the result -- UIGEA passed in the dead of night - and a decade lost...
So for starters SBF did not crash it all down. In a messed up way, he actually helped Bitcoin in a few ways. First off, the amount of paper bitcoin (Bitcoin that does not really exist) that was on FTX is no longer. Eliminating an exchange that allowed aggressive leverage on paper (or imaginary btc) is a very good thing. It's part why if Binance goes down it could be a net positive. The paper Bitcoin suppressed the btc price. The second major positive off SBF's fraudulent actions is that they have shined a light on ******** tokens and coins who's value was artificially inflated, which is causing crypto investors to think twice before investing in altcoins. It's a big reason why I never pulled the trigger on purchasing Solana. So leverage flush out & altcoin hesitancy will greatly help btc going forward.
Yes I wish I invested early. I had the early software on my computer to mine in the early days. I never did anything with it. There were also sites giving away Bitcoin early on. I was too impatient to figure out the wallets and passwords. And truthfully, had I mined or received btc back then, I would 100% have lost access to them. Moral of the story is it's never too early IMO. I got in during the covid crash and have purchased from 6 or 7k all the way up to 60k. MY cost basis right now is around 18k. I've been taking this time to DCA and average down. Again, there's no such thing as too early.
The reality is that digital payments, crypto currency and Bitcoin are not going anywhere. It's like saying in 1999 that this internet fad is over. And yes, there were major headlines declaring that,
So here we are in this weird holding pattern. The major negative of FTX is that it spooked institutions from getting involved, and truthfully, it's tough for them to do so. They're not going to hold bitcoin in cold storage where only a few people have access to it. It will have to be a third party like Coinbase to hold bitcoin for institutions. There is insolvency fears with every major exchange. This is where regulation will help. And regulation will help in a spot etf being created.
There's no true guidance on this, which makes a lot of tradiotnal investors and institutions hesitant on purchasing btc. When guidance (and hopefully the right guidance, not ******** put forth by a fraud like Sen Warren) happens it will open the door for more people/institutions to enter the space.
So fast forward to your 2 year price projection. I think Bitcoin will trade in the 15k - 23k range for the next year assuming we hit a full on recession and the macro environment remains. When the dust settles I think we will see rapid move up. Lightning Network adoption will continue to amplify this in the next two years, as retail realizes they can accept digital payments on the network for near-zero fees. Apple Pay and Google pay integration will be a big part of that when that happens. And i'm glad you mentioned Elon. Twitter will become a Venmo like transaction service in the future. It's coming. It was part of his initial plans pre-ebay. What does that mean? You've now taken Xhundred million users on Twitter and gave them an easy onramp to Bitcoin. Tipping Twitter users via lightning is already enabled.
Two years from now is tough to really answer. We could be looking at a perfect storm of events for Bitcoin. Good regulation, bringing in more investors/institutions and a spot ETF. More adoption and advancement of the Lightning Network as a payment network and mechanism to move money globally in seconds.
(Side note on that. Lightning allows for currency exchanges using the Bitcoin network. For example, it has the capability of sending US Dollars to anywhere in the world and have it converted to a native currency in seconds. USD >converted to bitcoin> converted to Lira, Yuen, Peso or whatever currency is desired at the output stage. This happens in realtime, so price volatility is negated. And the cost amounts to maybe a penny on the dollar)
So you're combining those with the halving slated to occur mid-2024 and you now have the incoming btc supply that gets mined every 10 minutes being cut in half. Currently, every 10 minutes 6.25 new bitcoin are mined. That number will be cut down to 3.125. Essentially every four years the numiber gets cut in half. Demand estimates, given a spot etf approval have essentially shown demand accounting for over 50% of new Bitcoin mined after the next halving, so in essence new supply entering the market will be cut in half again.
I really dont know where price will be in two years. Im confident it will be higher than it is currently. The only price prediction I'll make is that we're looking at a $1 million coin this decade.
Take that for what its worth, I continue to put $$ into Bitcoin every chance I get.
ur giving musk WAY too much credit... his world is a bit of Doge
there's a lot of other people manipulating many other MEME coins and stocks......
I'll say (over again)... no one should question the importance of blockchain. no one should question the future market in the virtual space (in which we live in more and more these days) for things like NFTs/blockchain pairing.
but, crypto itself is another matter... if it's a medium of exchange - then it's a proven to be a poor vehicle.
If it's an investment -then it can never really be much of a medium of exchange.
It's hard to call it much more than - a synthetic investment that might one day be a medium of exchange.
supporters of Crypto love to speak of "openness and visibility" into it.. but, that's proven to be largely untrue to all but the most tech savvy.
If you are not super comfortable with wild swings and potential total loss - there are so many better places to invest.
IMO - there remains REAL MAJOR questions of the "great $16k floor" they speak of --- MegaWhales have lots of reasons to be holding and creating scarcity to maintain a floor. I haven't seen anything in the (limited) data released so far that the FTX collapse has wrung the rehypothecation out of the ecosystem.
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A comment about this part..."supporters of Crypto love to speak of "openness and visibility" into it.. but, that's proven to be largely untrue to all but the most tech savvy." If you're just buying and holding you don't really need to know how to use on-chain data. But I've taught myself how to do this as a 43 year old. I can only imagine what teenagers and 20 year olds and the next generation will know about it. Mostly related to NFT's and crypto, I can track a wallet, see if its holding the coin/nft/etc. that I want to buy prior. I liken it to knowing who to buy from on eBay. Don't buy from someone who has a new account, zero stars, or too much negative feedback. Moving forward like Bob said, your crypto wallets will be able to be connected via Twitter, Discord, etc. and you'll be able to see more clearly the person's "rating" for lack of a better term.
As per lightning on Twitter Tips, looks like that's been scrapped.
My post was not really about Musk.
And it very easily can be used as an investment and medium of exchange. You have the asset bitcoin and the network, Bitcoin. Confusing, but the network is where lighning lives, allowing for instant remittance of whatever your preferred currency is; Dollars, Lira, Franks, Bitcoin, etc. The lightning network will allow people to move money in real time, without issue, and its an open network that anything and everything can plug into POS systems, Apple, Google, Starbucks, etc.
Thanks for sharing that. The capability is/was there.
so you think with a full on recession BTC stays in 15k-23k range?
This right here is all that is wrong with retail investors
that's because it was full of democrats and democrats are notoriously cheap lol
I actually think it was a stupid concept and saw it failing and especially with the users profile
JMO (really..don't listen to me):
(a) yes, the US is heading to a shallow, but somewhat prolonged recession in 2023. Despite some indications that inflation has peaked, 6% is still very high - and the Labor side of things are going to very hard to crack.
(b) because of (a) rates will remain high in the US for most of 2023 - it's this lack of "free money" that will really put all tech (and synthetic vapor in particular) to the test.
(c) recessions happen - it's not the end of the world. This ain't the financial crisis-- anyone who runs back to crypto because the US w/b in a mild recession is missing the point (you want to run to crypto for other reason - fine that's ur call).
Let's pull this back up in June 2023...... but, I'd say we see 13,000 - 8,000 before anyone sees 30....
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Please expand on this. I'm looking at onchain trends that show long term holders adding to their positions. 77% of btc hasnt moved in 6 mos. 66% hasnt moved in a year. The amount of whole-coiners is growing. Look at what Bitcoin just went through with FTX, or Luna or Celsius or 3AC, or Genesis, BlockFi, Voyager, the list goes on... And guess what's still standing, Bitcoin.
It went from 30k to 20k on the intitial scandals of Luna, 3AC, et al back in May. And went from 20-21k down to 15/16k after the FTX, Alameda, Genesis, BlockFi blowup. The support is there. The "retail investor" would have supspected this go lower given all that happened in November, but it didnt.
So yeah, a recession is going to keep Bitcoin in the range its been trading in since May. With the exception of a full blown Binance implosion (which I dont think is likely) nothing has convinced me otherwise.
Looking forward to pulling this up in June.
Great post. Thanks for taking the time to express your views. Truly valuable insights!
not really sure as I could see significant drops from here still
ETH has tangible merti, btc not so much. hard call but I'm on sidelines
adults leaving the room...
This will be a big deal. My take is that Mazars doesn’t believe the agreed upon procedures depicts the real condition of the companies. And doesn’t want to be on the hook if the **** hits the fan.
It’s because every exchange is playing the same game as FTX with maybe the exception of Coinbase. I don’t believe any exchange (or stablecoin more importantly) has ever posted a legitimate audit, just “attestations”. All funny money, a huge chunk of the actual money used to buy crypto is out of the liquidity pool and is now property of various Lambo dealerships and sellers of million dollar properties.
back in my day, we called them ponzi schemes. But, I don't understand the new economy.
How sure and confident are we of COIN? It is a US publicly traded company, so do we know they are not FTX'ing it? I think so.....
You’ve never been able to leverage trade on coin, they are very slow to approve new coins and they don’t deal with most of the smaller alt coins. And they don’t have their own coin. I’d say they avoid most of the red flags we’ve seen with the other exchanges that have had trouble.
As a publically traded company, I am confident that they are not behaving criminally. That said, being publically traded doesn’t mean they are an efficient business, there is still a decent chance they deal with insolvency at some point, they have been posting some shaky quarterly reports and they are 90% down from their initial valuation.
Fake news, original chart included incorrect token sets. That would have implied that Solana started with 3x more devs than every other chain combined which is clearly incorrect
Came very close to buying my second eth nft this week, didn’t get around to it. Missed opportunitySOL going down! Get on the ETH train.
To me, it's either you believe in the future of Bitcoin or not. I do and continue to DCA through this. While I was once rosy on the future of hte crypto space, the amount of fraud and rugpulls has destroyed any confidence I had in alts. I no longer believe in ETH post-merge, With the exception of my dopey LUNC position, I'm not looking to trade, just buy and hold for the future.
Deep dive article on Binance:
Special Report-Binance's books are a black box, filings show, as crypto giant tries to rally confidence
Special Report-Binance's books are a black box, filings show, as crypto giant tries to rally confidence
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