Don’t know how the books go about determining a line with so much unknown about our rotation for tomorrow night, but I go about it by just making a guess: RU -10
RU-Temple Points
- Thread starter zebnatto
- Start date
Way too high. I will say RU -3.
Like I said, I’m guess Im guessing in what our lineup is perceived to be. You could be right, Anderson.
I’d take RU giving three or four. More importantly, get CM and PM healthy and get the W.
Without Paul, it should be a pick'em. I think many underestimate his importance to our team.
They take something similar to a Kenpom spread and might make adjustments to injuries. I would guess somewhere in the RU -3 to -4 range.
You're probably right. And I'm saying if he doesn't play, take Temple with the points.
Why?
Temple lost to Wagner. Villanova isn’t that good. They are #102 in Kenpom. Meanwhile, we’ve moved up from #50 to #40 without Paul or Caleb playing. The 3-4 (which is a 60-70% winning chance) is an appropriate spread without Paul or Caleb. With either of them it should be more.
And KenPom is severely overrating Villanova right now based on pre season expectations which if anything is inflating Temple’s rating - at least on paper. Villanova is no 32nd ranked program.
Worded badly I’ll admit but we did play most of the third game without him. And he has not been putting up insane numbers or anything when he has been playing so far this year so I still don’t think his absence is going to be having more than a point impact on the spread.
Are you trying to say his few minutes impacted the UMass Lowell game in a positive way? I cannot imagine his personal +/- exceeded the final victory margin. He had nearly a blank stat line (just 2 rebounds) in 9 early minutes. The score at the 12:17 mark was 5 to 6.
This is an understatement. He had no impact on the UM Lowell outcome.
And he was also hurt in the Columbia game; why Pikell kept him in so long in that game or even played is beyond me
last year I think there was some nerves or uncertainty playing the first games on the road....
Last year the DePaul and UMass games were close losses, teams that we should have been able to handle.
here, both teams are not at home, so there is that, but sometimes its a matter of which team adapts best, more so if the talent level is anywhere even....not suggesting the talent is even in this case
Last year the DePaul and UMass games were close losses, teams that we should have been able to handle.
here, both teams are not at home, so there is that, but sometimes its a matter of which team adapts best, more so if the talent level is anywhere even....not suggesting the talent is even in this case
Neutral court no points advantage
Ken Pom RU +15.80 Temple +6.45 -9.35
T-Rank RU +13.5 Temple +8.9 -4.6
$plit the difference RU -7
Ken Pom RU +15.80 Temple +6.45 -9.35
T-Rank RU +13.5 Temple +8.9 -4.6
$plit the difference RU -7
I don't see how they could set a line without knowing the status of Paul and Caleb.
There might be something to this, but that was also the stretch where we were losing to Lafayette at home and losing to Illinois by like 40. Hopefully the team is playing better than that now.
Well, you set a line both with and without each of them, estimate the probability of them playing, take a weighted average of your spreads, move spread if and when you find the actual status.
Or, more likely for a rando college bb game like this, your line maker doesn’t know or care that those guys are hurt, you just take the output of your team level model and call it a day
Honestly - the uncertainty around the Battle situation on their end probably offsets this. They don’t have that many scorers on the roster so if that kid isn’t all in they are going to have a tough time. We’ll know early on if the kid comes to play.
Everyone seems to be losing faith in how deep this team is after many were saying this is the deepest team we have had in a while
All against an ok Temple team relying on 2 players that appears to be on the verge of imploding due to one of them
Have some faith!
All against an ok Temple team relying on 2 players that appears to be on the verge of imploding due to one of them
Have some faith!
I get people being nervous about this game because it’s one where we obviously could easily lose the game. I don’t get people actually thinking we will lose or are a toss up. Rutgers is the clear favorite here.
We may be deep but we may be depending on several first year players in there first away from home game
Hopefully fan support is in our favor
That is a plus
I hear you, but we’re possibly going to be without two of our guards/wings/ball handlers, which could mean Simpson starts and Miller has to play 20+ minutes.
I could understand your point more if we were missing one guard and, say, Reiber or Woolfolk. In that scenario, our depth would not be as tested since the missing players were spread out.
But missing two guys who play guard/wing positively depletes the roster of key players.
ESPN Analytics has this as Rutgers -5.4 with a 71% chance to win. Massey has it RU -6 with almost the exact same score 70-64. So I'll go with RU -5 based on the injury uncertainty.
This feels like the Nebraska football game. Everything on paper says we should win, given Temple situation .. but also feels like we could easily lose