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Absolutely Scary Stuff-Purdue and refs

NewJerseyHawk

NewJerseyHawk

Heisman
Jan 11, 2007
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I know there is an overall discussion that "refs don't matter'......@bac2therac

BUT.....this information collected appears WAY too difficult to ignore. Worth a read, will add the tweets to this thread......all Purdue related, but if anyone wants to actually argue that refs don't impact the outcome of the game, this (to me) is scary stuff on Purdue /Reffed games by Courtney Green

 
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RUBubba

All-Conference
Sep 4, 2002
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Saw something before the NCAA that RU was 1-6 in games with Bo Borowski reffing this year. The one win was against OSU, with losses against Lafayette, Illinois, SHU, Northwestern, Wisconsin and Iowa.

Don't know the true validity of it though.
 
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The RUT

Heisman
Oct 30, 2011
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Making the claim that an official is intentionally impacting the game like this is a VERY strong claim, and it’s not one I’m prepared to make.

For example, the lines are being set based off a seasons worth of data and multiple officiating crews. It’s entirely possible that Green’s style of basketball/officiating works against what Purdue is trying to do specifically.

With that said, I think it’s incredibly naive to not believe SOMETHING is going on somewhere. With all the corruption within the sport, is it really that far fetched?
 
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The RUT

Heisman
Oct 30, 2011
35,716
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RUBubba said:
Saw something before the NCAA that RU was 1-6 in games with Bo Borowski reffing this year. The one win was against OSU, with losses against Lafayette, Illinois, SHU, Northwestern, Wisconsin and Iowa.

Don't know the true validity of it though.
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Correct, 1-6 through those games with our lone W being the game we stole vs OSU.

W/L is irrelevant though, I’d like to see how we did ATE in those games.
 
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RutgersRaRa

Heisman
Mar 21, 2011
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kcg88 said:
Bad analysis because Purdue isn't the only team flipping coins. If 358 people are all flipping coins then it's almost a certainty at least one will have a run of 1 heads, 14 tails. Don't have the energy to do the math now.
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Bingo. The likelihood that a particular ref will be 1-14 ATS is slim, but the likelihood that a ref selected from a large pool of refs will have one such run is high. Not to say it was or wasn't purposeful on Green's behalf, as I have no way of knowing this just from the stats. Do some more digging and there's probably a ref that is 14-1 ATS in a given scenario.
 
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ImBadRU

All-Conference
Apr 3, 2002
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One problem, refs work in teams of three. Not sure an analysis of one ref per game makes sense. The analysis also ignores the opponents played in those games. Has Green gotten more games when PU plays teams with which it does not match up well and struggles to cover? Have no idea what he means by "In statistics, typically anything below 5% is considered to be statistically significant". What anything is he talking about? He claims PU's big men get beat up and don't get calls...lol.
 
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RUtrumpet92_rivals498139

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Feb 5, 2003
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If this is purely coincidental, if/when Green sees this, is it in the back of his mind the next time he calls a Purdue game? Does it affect his judgment at all, as he won't want to be 1-15?
 
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Scarlet Blind_rivals

All-Conference
Aug 5, 2001
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The bigger take is not of that wins and losses or even ATS stuff why is Carstensen and Szelc refereeing 40 games in a 5 year span(8 a year for 5 years) each and Boroski 36 in 5 years(7.2 games a year for 5 years) that is 25% of their games each year. The refereeing inside this conference isn't doing any favors to the 14 teams in this conference when they have to play other teams outside of this conference with referees of other conferences in a tournament setting.
 
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Erial_Lion_rivals140457

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RocktheRac said:
Can we get data on what the record is vs the spread on days of the week? How about sunny vs cloudy days. You can punch in a lot of data to get results that are coincidental.
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Checking quickly, Purdue this season was 1-3 on Thursday's, and 28-4 on the other 6 days of the week.

If we assume that Purdue's record on other days of the week is their true winning %, then according to my binomial distribution calculator, the odds of only winning 1 game out of their 4 Thursday games is .02%.

Forget Courtney Green, forcing Purdue to play on Thursday seems to be an even bigger conspiracy.
 
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GORU2014

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Erial_Lion said:
Checking quickly, Purdue this season was 1-3 on Thursday's, and 28-4 on the other 6 days of the week.

If we assume that Purdue's record on other days of the week is their true winning %, then according to my binomial distribution calculator, the odds of only winning 1 game out of their 4 Thursday games is .02%.

Forget Courtney Green, forcing Purdue to play on Thursday seems to be an even bigger conspiracy.
Click to expand...
How are they on Thursdays with Courtney Green as ref?
 
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RW90

RW90

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Feb 2, 2002
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What I'd love to see is all those data analysts out there track and measure:
  1. the number of fouls called by official /crew
  2. the number of fouls called for/against each team
  3. the number fouls called by official/crew for and against each team
 
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ScarletR30

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kcg88 said:
Bad analysis because Purdue isn't the only team flipping coins. If 358 people are all flipping coins then it's almost a certainty at least one will have a run of 1 heads, 14 tails. Don't have the energy to do the math now.
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From a bayesian statistics this would make sense (I think? it’s been a while).

My objection would be the p-value he got (~0.03) is not “strongly significant”. Also typically you’d want a sample size of 25 or more. So with the small sample size and a “weakly” statistically significant p-value I would not reject the null. There is a very good chance this could happen at random.
 
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kcg88

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Eagleton95.99

All-American
Jul 25, 2001
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I don't have time to give the stats discourse, but you would expect to have outliers like that. So you can't really draw any conclusions.
 
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