Michigan Game Plan - Attack the Rim

[Scangg]

Stole this from Danny Breslauer tweet but fully agree. Attack the rim against a depleted Michigan. Attack the boards. Push the ball and get to the rim.


"Without Diabate, Michigan's rim protection becomes even more suspect. In fact, and this is jarring, when Dickinson is off the floor, nobody will have higher than a 1.8% block percentage (Johns). RU has 7 players at that % or higher. Get downhill (338th D TO%) & finish layups."

Entire thread starts here of 5 keys...

 

[Scangg]

Jones (6'1 200) is likely to draw Paul. He cannot handle Paul inside. Attack the rim. Bully ball. Get Jones in foul trouble. Michigan turnovers galore.

 

[GORU2014]

Their game plan: Attack the coaching staff

 

[Colbert17!]

Their game plan: Attack the coaching staff

Disagree. We don't match up with them well physically.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Since beating Michigan, I’ve had the rematch marked as a game to worry about. Winning it would take a lot of mental toughness from our guys. I doubt RHJ is going 5/6 from 3 along with Caleb going 2/3 at their place. Michigan will probably make more than 3 threes at home.

No Diabate certainly helps on the glass, but as someone pointed out - his back up Johns dropped 20 on us a few years ago and he didn’t play last game - he’ll get Diabate’s minutes. Williams didn’t play last game against us either.

 

[Scangg]

Johns is soft but he can score. Can he defend Ron though?

 

[Joey Bags]

Every single player on UM's rotation can go HAM and ball at a high level. Sometimes losing starters gives guys lower in the rotation a different look that allows them to excel. UM's lower bench is much better offensively than our lower bench.

We win this game through superior defense, if both teams are hot offensively UM wins.

 

[goru7]

Every single player on UM's rotation can go HAM and ball at a high level. Sometimes losing starters gives guys lower in the rotation a different look that allows them to excel. UM's lower bench is much better offensively than our lower bench.

We win this game through superior defense, if both teams are hot offensively UM wins.

No way in this recent stretch is Michigan better offensively than us. Since February 1st ,, we are 7th in the country in offensive efficiency , and we shoot better than Michigan from the field and from 3. They will not be able to handle Paul. Cliff is so much better than 1/4 and should bother Dickinson a lot and Dean will be impactful where he was non existent. As long as we defend reasonably well , we are playing like we will win.

 

[Scangg]

No way in this recent stretch is Michigan better offensively than us. Since February 1st ,, we are 7th in the country in offensive efficiency , and we shoot better than Michigan from the field and from 3. They will not be able to handle Paul. Cliff is so much better than 1/4 and should bother Dickinson a lot and Dean will be impactful where he was non existent. As long as we defend reasonably well , we are playing like we will win.

Jones and Dickinson vs Paul and Cliff in the PnR

Abuse incoming

 

[Eagleton95.99]

No way in this recent stretch is Michigan better offensively than us. Since February 1st ,, we are 7th in the country in offensive efficiency , and we shoot better than Michigan from the field and from 3. They will not be able to handle Paul. Cliff is so much better than 1/4 and should bother Dickinson a lot and Dean will be impactful where he was non existent. As long as we defend reasonably well , we are playing like we will win.

Agree. We are no longer the team that has to make the game ugly to win.

 

[goru7]

Jones and Dickinson vs Paul and Cliff in the PnR

Abuse incoming

Jones is not Xavier Simpson. We totally throttled him on 1/4 and will do that again. Cliff has to come up on high ball screen as Dickinson has been raining uncontested 3 ‘ s but usually likes to get the bal on the block. The more Cliff denies that pass the better.

 

[Scangg]

Jones is not Xavier Simpson. We totally throttled him on 1/4 and will do that again. Cliff has to come up on high ball screen as Dickinson has been raining uncontested 3 ‘ s but usually likes to get the bal on the block. The more Cliff denies that pass the better.

I was referring to us abusing them in the PnR

 

[RUtrumpet92_rivals498139]

In conference play, Michigan has four guys that play 30+ minutes per game. Diabate was 5th in minutes, Williams 7th technically but the guy in 6th (Zeb Jackson) is in the transfer portal and off the roster.

Of available Wolverines for our game, blocks in league play:

Dickinson 17
Jones 3
Houstan 2
Johns 2
Brooks 1
Collins 1
Howard 1

That's crazy low. By contrast, we have Cliff 28; Geo 9; Harper, Reiber, and McConnell 7 each. Mulcahy has 4, four others with one each.

Who do they put on Ron? Houstan is 6' 8", 205 and listed as G/F. Johns is 6'8", 240.

Jones and Brooks are both 6' 1", 200 or less. If they go man, I'm with scangg: Paul will abuse either of these guys going to the paint and shoot over them, or need to find the open man when doubled.

Dickinson shot the 3 well against Purdue and Indiana earlier this season (6-9 against Purdue in two games, 3-4 against Indiana). Against the rest of the conference, he is just 3 for 22 from deep. Cliff does need to step out when he does, he likely had open looks against Purdue from their bigs not getting out on him.

 

[RU-ROCS]

Stole this from Danny Breslauer tweet but fully agree. Attack the rim against a depleted Michigan. Attack the boards. Push the ball and get to the rim.


"Without Diabate, Michigan's rim protection becomes even more suspect. In fact, and this is jarring, when Dickinson is off the floor, nobody will have higher than a 1.8% block percentage (Johns). RU has 7 players at that % or higher. Get downhill (338th D TO%) & finish layups."

Entire thread starts here of 5 keys...

Agreed. And, Geo is so much better when he is attacking the rim. Also, expect Paul to post up their smaller guards.

 

[Scangg]

In conference play, Michigan has four guys that play 30+ minutes per game. Diabate was 5th in minutes, Williams 7th technically but the guy in 6th (Zeb Jackson) is in the transfer portal and off the roster.

Of available Wolverines for our game, blocks in league play:

Dickinson 17
Jones 3
Houstan 2
Johns 2
Brooks 1
Collins 1
Howard 1

That's crazy low. By contrast, we have Cliff 28; Geo 9; Harper, Reiber, and McConnell 7 each. Mulcahy has 4, four others with one each.

Who do they put on Ron? Houstan is 6' 8", 205 and listed as G/F. Johns is 6'8", 240.

Jones and Brooks are both 6' 1", 200 or less. If they go man, I'm with scangg: Paul will abuse either of these guys going to the paint and shoot over them, or need to find the open man when doubled.

Dickinson shot the 3 well against Purdue and Indiana earlier this season (6-9 against Purdue in two games, 3-4 against Indiana). Against the rest of the conference, he is just 3 for 22 from deep. Cliff does need to step out when he does, he likely had open looks against Purdue from their bigs not getting out on him.

Due to the weight you would think it's Johns on Harper and Houstan on Caleb

Any team that starts 2 small guards is in immediate matchup trouble against us. It means either Caleb or Paul has a massive size and strength advantage

Good work finding those in depth 3 point shooting stats.

 

[Scangg]

Agreed. And, Geo is so much better when he is attacking the rim. Also, expect Paul to post up their smaller guards.

Paul will have a field day unless they go with an unorthodox matchup of some sort. I might put one of the smaller guards on Caleb and make him beat you if I was Michigan

That or they will need to double Paul in the post. We might see a lot of that

 

[Shell21]

Has Michigan gone zone much? Wouldn’t shock me to see some of this against us tomorrow.

 

[Scangg]

Has Michigan gone zone much? Wouldn’t shock me to see some of this against us tomorrow.

Hmmm that is an interesting point considering the lack of depth and potential matchup concerns against Paul

 

[RUtrumpet92_rivals498139]

Has Michigan gone zone much? Wouldn’t shock me to see some of this against us tomorrow.

I thought about this in reverse. If they have two 6' 1" guards and one of them is attacking Paul on D, we may use more of the 2-3 zone that Pike's been rolling out there.

 

[Degaz-RU]

UM's three primary ballhandling guards are 6-1, and the fourth is a 6-4 true freshman. Our game plan should absolutely be to post up Paul and Caleb. UM will have to guard us as follows:

Dickinson on Cliff
Johns on Harper
Houstan on Paul or Caleb
Brooks on Paul or Caleb
Jones on Baker

The Houstan decision will be an interesting one. He's 6-8, so if he's a good defender -- I'm not sure about that -- he could make it difficult for Paul to operate, just like Ivey made it difficult with his length. But that leaves a 6-1 guard on Caleb, who is quite good with his back to the basket in the mid-range game. I guess if I'm Michigan, I'm choosing to let Caleb try and beat me rather than Paul (who would be an absolute matchup nightmare for any of the 4 "guards" in UM's rotation).

On defense, I'm putting Caleb on Brooks to start, to see if he can take their best perimeter scorer out of the game. If we do that, Paul would have to guard either Houstan (tough matchup) or Johns. The other option is putting Caleb on Houstan.

 

[Scangg]

UM's three primary ballhandling guards are 6-1, and the fourth is a 6-4 true freshman. Our game plan should absolutely be to post up Paul and Caleb. UM will have to guard us as follows:

Dickinson on Cliff
Johns on Harper
Houstan on Paul or Caleb
Brooks on Paul or Caleb
Jones on Baker

The Houstan decision will be an interesting one. He's 6-8, so if he's a good defender -- I'm not sure about that -- he could make it difficult for Paul to operate, just like Ivey made it difficult with his length. But that leaves a 6-1 guard on Caleb, who is quite good with his back to the basket in the mid-range game. I guess if I'm Michigan, I'm choosing to let Caleb try and beat me rather than Paul (who would be an absolute matchup nightmare for any of the 4 "guards" in UM's rotation).

On defense, I'm putting Caleb on Brooks to start, to see if he can take their best perimeter scorer out of the game. If we do that, Paul would have to guard either Houstan (tough matchup) or Johns. The other option is putting Caleb on Houstan.

Great take as usual.

You think Jones is on Baker, not Brooks?

6'1 200 Jones vs 6'1 185 Brooks

Based on the added weight I was assuming Jones on Paul but either way its a huge huge size advantage. The only other option is to try to let Caleb beat you with this mismatch instead like you said which is what I also suggested they might. That or double Paul or zone are really the options. I don't think they can guard Paul with either of them for the entire game without getting destroyed and also potential foul trouble

 

[knightfan7]

Disagree. We don't match up with them well physically.

Pike vs Martelli? Gonna go with Pike. Reach makes the difference.

 

[littlenis5]

Great take as usual.

You think Jones is on Baker, not Brooks?

6'1 200 Jones vs 6'1 185 Brooks

Based on the added weight I was assuming Jones on Paul but either way its a huge huge size advantage. The only other option is to try to let Caleb beat you with this mismatch instead like you said which is what I also suggested they might. That or double Paul or zone are really the options. I don't think they can guard Paul with either of them for the entire game without getting destroyed and also potential foul trouble

The next evolution in our offense is targeting this kind of thing in pick and roll…if they put a small guy on Caleb, have him screen for Paul to get a switch.

I saw Danny’s tweet and initially got nervous that this will be the game where Michigan goes off for a block party - these things always happen to Rutgers.

I think we can nitpick matchups and things all day but at the end of it, it will likely come down to the normal factors: control the glass, get transition buckets, defensive intensity without fouling.

 

[RUHouston]

Great thread, OP!

I think the emergence of Pistol Paulie, the Bayonne Brawler is the biggest X factor in the game. It's opened up so many more offensive options and has really benefited everyone.

I like our match up even had the suspended guys played and if there's one thing Pike should drill into the guys is what happened against Minny...never count anyone out in this League!

We need to break their will on the boards, just like we did against the Illini.

 

[goru7]

Just heard Michigan ‘s beat guy from the Detroit Free Press , Michael Cohen on Sirius . He said Michigan has won every game they have hit 8 or more 3 pointers in and lost when they are limited to 4-5. Thinks game comes down to whether they hit from 3. Now Houston , Brooks and now Dickinson are their main weapons.

On the other hand , for the first time all year we had MSU hit 11-24 ( still won by 21) and Ohio State hit 10-18( still won by 2 with a 10-0 close out ). We had not won before that giving up more than 7 per game. But that coincided with our increasing offensive efficiency and shooting close to 50 % or sometimes better , that offset that damage from 3. We can win either way now but I would prefer our defense step up and hold them to 4-5 made threes and walk away with a nice double digit win.

 

[GimmeSomeMore]

Chatted with a buddy last night who is a UM grad and close follower of the basketball program. We talked about defense and he said that they have been primarily a zone defense lately - that is more difficult without the length of the two guys missing (and Diabate's athleticism) but given the size mismatches on the perimeter, he expects they will be forced to go zone almost exclusively (caveat is that Martelli is a man-man guy and prefers that when able). He also follows us closely and thinks that PM will absolutely devastate them if/when they go man.

We will need to make threes and cut to space - do that, and we should continue our high efficiency ways.

Love our chances tomorrow night

 

[RUChoppin]

Going to have to get Mulcahy at the top of the key to work against their zone. With Brooks/Jones at just 6-1 (together averaging 65.3 min/g in conference play), we should be able to make that entry pass and let Mulcahy respond to their zone (either to Cliff if Dickinson steps up, or to Harper/Baker if the defense collapses from the top/side).

My guess is they start Johns in place of Diabate (conf min/g):
6-1 Brooks (35.3 min/g)
6-1 Jones (30.0)
6-8 Houstan (31.6)
6-8 Johns (10.8)
7-0 Dickinson (32.7)

Reserves
6-4 Bufkin (10.8)
6-1 Collins (8.9)

Their next two guys are Howard (6-7/210 G with 61 min played this year) and Faulds (6-10/240 F with 47 minutes played this year)

Really need to force Houstan/Johns/Dickinson to defend and pick up fouls.... or, if the refs are swallowing their whistles, we have to take advantage and harass the hell out of them defensively.

 

[motorb54]

Johns is soft but he can score. Can he defend Ron though?

Don't worry. The zebras will call two quick offensive fouls on RHJ to even things out.

 

[LotusAggressor_rivals]

Their game plan: Attack the coaching staff

Without Howard, they'll have less of a reach advantage. That means going to the body.

 

[Eagleton95.99]

Just heard Michigan ‘s beat guy from the Detroit Free Press , Michael Cohen on Sirius . He said Michigan has won every game they have hit 8 or more 3 pointers in and lost when they are limited to 4-5. Thinks game comes down to whether they hit from 3. Now Houston , Brooks and now Dickinson are their main weapons.

On the other hand , for the first time all year we had MSU hit 11-24 ( still won by 21) and Ohio State hit 10-18( still won by 2 with a 10-0 close out ). We had not won before that giving up more than 7 per game. But that coincided with our increasing offensive efficiency and shooting close to 50 % or sometimes better , that offset that damage from 3. We can win either way now but I would prefer our defense step up and hold them to 4-5 made threes and walk away with a nice double digit win.

Why not both and win by 20?

 

[Eagleton95.99]

Don't worry. The zebras will call two quick offensive fouls on RHJ to even things out.

Yes. Johns will run into Ron and bounce off. Foul on Ron.

 

[RUJMM78]

Agree. We are no longer the team that has to make the game ugly to win.

Multiple scoring droughts and the inability to guard Ivey without fouling were the reasons for the losss to Purdue.In the game against Michigan Rutgers defense must concentrate in stopping the 3 point shot. Dickinson will probably score at least 20 points so limiting scoring from the rest of the starters will be key to winning .Baker and Harper scoring always impacts team success which means at least 30 points on the score board.Getting some easy baskets off turnovers always helps building the margin of victory.This is a must win game with only four remaining and Rutgers needs another road win which would enhance the resume for NCAA selection.

 

[GoodOl'Rutgers]

To me.. the point about forcing Dickinson to go to his right is key.

I couldn't believe how Rutgers bigs played both Dickinson and some other left-hander as if they were righties.

HEY CLIFF.. DO NOT FALL for that feint to the Dick's right. Set up with your right hand high on his back/right shoulder... he will not be putting up little right hand hooks in front of the rim.. he wants to hook you with his right elbow and spin around you for a left-hand layup.

CLIFF, DEAN, RALPH...

REPEAT AFTER ME...

LEFTY
LEFTY
LEFTY
....

 

[RU MAN]

Has Michigan gone zone much? Wouldn’t shock me to see some of this against us tomorrow.

I've thought about this and I don't see this as a problem. We have now seen most zones teams throw at us and Paul at the top of the key does a great job breaking it down and passing down low or to the perimeter.

 

[RUChoppin]

Looking at Michigan's games in February (last 7), here are the minutes/points for their rotation

35.7 min - Brooks - 15.3 pts (.484 3P), 4.4 rb, 3.3 ast/1.1 tov
32.9 min - Dickinson - 20.6 pts (.350 3P), 7.9 rb, 1.9 blk
32.4 min - Jones - 11.3 pts (.158 3P), 6.4 rb, 5.9 ast/1.9 tov, 1.3 stl
32.4 min - Houstan - 7.7 pts (.286 3P), 3.9 rb
25.9 min - Diabate - 9.4 pts (.630 FG), 4.1 rb
13.7 min - Williams - 2.2 pts, 2.2 rb
9.9 min - Johns - 1.9 pts, 2.1 rb
9.6 min - Bufkin - 2.4 pts, 0.6 rb
5.9 min - Collins - 1.0 pts, 0.7 rb

No one else played in more than 3 of their last 7 games, or tallied more than 15 total minutes.

If Johns starts, they have no reserve bigs that have really seen any action. Both saw their most minutes of the season @Illinois trying to stop Cockburn with Dickinson and Johns not available and Diabate in foul trouble.

 

[Scangg]

Looking at Michigan's games in February (last 7), here are the minutes/points for their rotation

35.7 min - Brooks - 15.3 pts (.484 3P), 4.4 rb, 3.3 ast/1.1 tov
32.9 min - Dickinson - 20.6 pts (.350 3P), 7.9 rb, 1.9 blk
32.4 min - Jones - 11.3 pts (.158 3P), 6.4 rb, 5.9 ast/1.9 tov, 1.3 stl
32.4 min - Houstan - 7.7 pts (.286 3P), 3.9 rb
25.9 min - Diabate - 9.4 pts (.630 FG), 4.1 rb
13.7 min - Williams - 2.2 pts, 2.2 rb
9.9 min - Johns - 1.9 pts, 2.1 rb
9.6 min - Bufkin - 2.4 pts, 0.6 rb
5.9 min - Collins - 1.0 pts, 0.7 rb

No one else played in more than 3 of their last 7 games, or tallied more than 15 total minutes.

If Johns starts, they have no reserve bigs that have really seen any action. Both saw their most minutes of the season @Illinois trying to stop Cockburn with Dickinson and Johns not available and Diabate in foul trouble.

If Johns or Houstan get in foul trouble they either need to go super small or play someone who hasn't been getting any minutes. They have some big true 5 white dude and jace Howard is more like 4 at 6'8

 

[RUChoppin]

If Johns or Houstan get in foul trouble they either need to go super small or play someone who hasn't been getting any minutes. They have some big true 5 white dude and jace Howard is more like 4 at 6'8

Yeah, Faulds. Faulds is 6-10/240 and is a 5th year senior. He has played 83 minutes at Michigan over 3 seasons, and has committed 9.2 fouls per 40 minutes during that time.

This season, he's played 47 minutes. 12 of those were @Illinois backing up Diabate, with Dickinson/Johns out. He had 0 pts, 3 rb, and 2 fouls in that time. 13 more were in blowouts over Nebraska and Maryland, during which he had 6 pts, 1 rb, and 3 fouls.

Howard has played 95 minutes across 2 seasons with Michigan, and has committed 9.2 pf/40 min this season. 15 of those minutes were in that same Illinois game, where he had 2 pts, 2 rb, and 3 pf.

I'd think we'd want these two guys in the game as much as possible.

 

[Scangg]

Yeah, Faulds. Faulds is 6-10/240 and is a 5th year senior. He has played 83 minutes at Michigan over 3 seasons, and has committed 9.2 fouls per 40 minutes during that time.

This season, he's played 47 minutes. 12 of those were @Illinois backing up Diabate, with Dickinson/Johns out. He had 0 pts, 3 rb, and 2 fouls in that time. 13 more were in blowouts over Nebraska and Maryland, during which he had 6 pts, 1 rb, and 3 fouls.

Howard has played 95 minutes across 2 seasons with Michigan, and has committed 9.2 pf/40 min this season. 15 of those minutes were in that same Illinois game, where he had 2 pts, 2 rb, and 3 pf.

I'd think we'd want these two guys in the game as much as possible.

Awesome stats. Just reinforces the attack the rim strategy. Let's force them to go deep into the bench

 

[fatsam98]

Yeah, Faulds. Faulds is 6-10/240 and is a 5th year senior. He has played 83 minutes at Michigan over 3 seasons, and has committed 9.2 fouls per 40 minutes during that time.

Is that bad?

 

[MLBash93]

Well this plan hasn't been working, we are struggling mightily to get open looks, probably because of the PM foul trouble.