Illinois - how we match up

[Scangg]

We got embarrassed first game. No debate there. This is a much different team at this point on the season though and the minutes for this matchup will be much different as well.

Most notably Jones - 27 min / Agee - 18 min but Oskar with 12. It was a blowout so that has something to do with it.

The main matchup of concern is Kofi. If Cliff can stay out of foul trouble, that will be huge. No one else on the roster can guard Kofi at all really with the possible exception of Nathan just bc he has the mass to hold up. If Cliff does get in foul trouble, Dean will likely get abused if he is forced to guard Kofi. Agee has no chance.

On the other end.... run the Pick n Roll and attack Kofi. Bring him out away from the rim and make him move his feet. Kofi could get caught fouling trying to keep up with Cliff's athleticism. Also wouldn't mind cliff pick n popping for a few open jumpers. If Dean is stuck guarding Kofi make Kofi come out to the perimeter on the other end. He might give Dean wide open looks from 3

We now need to ask this question each game... who guards Paul? Looks like it may be 6'3 Williams. Another height advantage matchup. Paul needs to continue to be aggressive and score over top in the lane and turn around jumper is looking nice

 

[YoucancallmeRay]

I'm just as concerned with Plummer and Frazier. Illinois has a lot of talent in other positions as well. If we defend the three, we can handle them. I think Cliff will be ok with Kofi.

 

[RUby RED]

Illinois’ got 4 solid defenders, each of whom match up well with our top 4 offensive guys.

Kofi has the size to stifle Cliff, particularly around the rim. Like you said, need to drag Kofi away from the basket as much as possible.

Hawkins’ length gave Harper major issues in the first game — need to get creative to find Harper mismatches, otherwise I think he’ll have to do his damage in pick n’ pop opportunities.

Damonte Williams is a stout defender and while Paul has the height advantage, not sure he’ll be able to easily post/back him down.

Frazier has an elite ability to heat the ball up — I expect he’ll be on Geo to start the game, though he may switch off to guard the “hot-hand” at various points.

If this sounds defeatist, that’s not my goal — but we’ve definitely got a challenge ahead of us. Need to continue sharing the rock and limiting iso-ball. Also think we’ll have to look to exploit periods when their bench unit is on the floor.

Looking forward to the RAC rocking and hoping we turn this one into a grind it out defensive battle. Play the way we have recently and we’ll certainly be in it down the stretch

 

[Scangg]

Another takeaway from the first game that might get overlooked is former Rutgers recruiting target Coleman Hawkins and his defense on Ron. Harper has struggled with longer defenders and Hawkins really locked down Ron who was 1-9

 

[Scangg]

Illinois’ got 4 solid defenders, each of whom match up well with our top 4 offensive guys.

Kofi has the size to stifle Cliff, particularly around the rim. Like you said, need to drag Kofi away from the basket as much as possible.

Hawkins’ length gave Harper major issues in the first game — need to get creative to find Harper mismatches, otherwise I think he’ll have to do his damage in pick n’ pop opportunities.

Damonte Williams is a stout defender and while Paul has the height advantage, not sure he’ll be able to easily post/back him down.

Frazier has an elite ability to heat the ball up — I expect he’ll be on Geo to start the game, though he may switch off to guard the “hot-hand” at various points.

If this sounds defeatist, that’s not my goal — but we’ve definitely got a challenge ahead of us. Need to continue sharing the rock and limiting iso-ball. Also think we’ll have to look to exploit periods when their bench unit is on the floor.

Looking forward to the RAC rocking and hoping we turn this one into a grind it out defensive battle. Play the way we have recently and we’ll certainly be in it down the stretch

Hoping Geo brings his A game and Frazier has an off night. When Frazier heats up Illinois very tough to stop. He was off in a loss against Purdue and a close game against Northwestern in his last 2 games. On the road at the RAC we need his recent struggles to continue

 

[RUChoppin]

Last time out:

With Baker out, Jones got the starting nod and saw the most time with 27 minutes. He put up a team-leading 14 shots, and hit 4 of them, with Mulcahy going 2/11 and Harper going 1/9. Between the three of them, they put up half our attempts and shot just .206. We got to the line just 3 times, and shot 2/4.

This time out:
Pike's been leaning hard on his starters, with Mulcahy, Baker, Harper all averaging 34+ minutes over the last 10 games, and Omoruyi averaging 31. I'd expect to see more of that, barring foul trouble.

Hopefully Illinois will be taking us lightly after the drubbing we received at their place, but coming off of 3 ranked wins and playing at the RAC makes that unlikely. I think we have new wrinkles to our offense that make us harder to guard (Mulcahy's aggressiveness, Omoruyi's post game), and there's less of a dropoff from Omoruyi to Reiber than there was to Agee.

Question is going to be whether we can knock down our shots.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Hawkins could defend Paul

 

[GimmeSomeMore]

Three (hopeful) predictions:

1. Harper is hyper aggressive to the hoop early and gets to the foul line 6+ times in the first half. That would be amazing and will be particularly important when Hawkins comes in to guard him.

2. I think that our perimeter size will cause problems - Ill has 3 starters 6'3 and under to have to contend with Geo, Paul, and Caleb when we are starter v. starter. PM should be able to see over his defender and find passing lanes and cutters - movement off the ball will be key (though I am not sure I know how often Illinois is willing to switch to zone D)

3. Caleb will grab 8+ rebounds this game - with a 4 inch+ height advantage on his guy most of the time, can CM avoid falling into the trap of shooting too early and often and continue to wreck offenses and, this game in particular, crash the glass. I think so.

Bonus: Geo remains red hot and hits 5 triples to lead us to a 70-64 win.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Question is going to be whether we can knock down our shots.

This will be the 2nd most important question. The most important question (by a whisker since they will probably take more) is how will they shoot.

 

[Scangg]

Three (hopeful) predictions:

1. Harper is hyper aggressive to the hoop early and gets to the foul line 6+ times in the first half. That would be amazing and will be particularly important when Hawkins comes in to guard him.

2. I think that our perimeter size will cause problems - Ill has 3 starters 6'3 and under to have to contend with Geo, Paul, and Caleb when we are starter v. starter. PM should be able to see over his defender and find passing lanes and cutters - movement off the ball will be key (though I am not sure I know how often Illinois is willing to switch to zone D)

3. Caleb will grab 8+ rebounds this game - with a 4 inch+ height advantage on his guy most of the time, can CM avoid falling into the trap of shooting too early and often and continue to wreck offenses and, this game in particular, crash the glass. I think so.

Bonus: Geo remains red hot and hits 5 triples to lead us to a 70-64 win.

The 3 short guards is where Rutgers has in theory a matchup to exploit. Caleb and Paul likely have a height advantage most of the game. I'd like to see our guards come up huge in rebounding and attacking inside.

FIG brought up an interesting point about Coleman on Paul. If Paul is cooking, they may want to use his length on Paul, but that would likely leave Harper with a complete mismatch u less Illinois goes to a very big lineup. Coleman was outstanding on Ron last game so have to figure they want to keep that matchup.

Paul had a poor game last time, but I'm not so sure whoever stopped him last time can do it again against new Paul

 

[Booty Maximus]

From the Illini side - Hawkins had a couple of nice games back in December guarding Harper and Murray but has really struggled recently. Just unsure of what he's doing on offense and it carries over to his D. He'll probably be first off the bench again but if he's not dialed in expect to see a lot of freshman RJ Melendez who has been getting more minutes in February. He's a really solid, 6'7" athletic kid that Illinois has lacked.

On the ball screens with Kofi, Illinois plays "drop coverage" there. They want to take away the 3 pointers and have Kofi protect the rim. That means going over screens with Kofi sagging in the lane. So there will be plenty of mid/long range 2s available to take. As always the refs can play a part here if they call a couple early on either big man then that can change the calculus.

Data shows Rutgers allows teams to shoot a lot of 3s and Illinois does take more than any other Big Ten team. They've been struggling with consistency there, probably not a good formula on the road but they do have the shooters.

 

[Scarlet Shack]

I'm just as concerned with Plummer and Frazier. Illinois has a lot of talent in other positions as well. If we defend the three, we can handle them. I think Cliff will be ok with Kofi.

Defend the three !!!! Yes, yes. Yes and yes

 

[BigEastPhil]

How you beat Illinois: Run up and down the court and Cockburn burns out. He doesn’t have the stamina / endurance.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Defend the three !!!! Yes, yes. Yes and yes

I'd love to see B1G records when teams have players go off for big scoring nights. Let Cockburn get his points and have Illinois offensive players get out of rhytmn force feeding cockburn. Cockburn can score 30 points in the 1st 35 minutes of the game provided they arent at the FT line.

 

[Knight Owl]

Yesterday, Northwestern turned Illinois over 20 times and somehow stayed close in a game in which Illinois really dominated on the boards.

 

[RU-ROCS]

Hoping Geo brings his A game and Frazier has an off night. When Frazier heats up Illinois very tough to stop. He was off in a loss against Purdue and a close game against Northwestern in his last 2 games. On the road at the RAC we need his recent struggles to continue

Frazier has been slumping shooting the ball. I pray he slumps for one more game.

 

[goru7]

Another takeaway from the first game that might get overlooked is former Rutgers recruiting target Coleman Hawkins and his defense on Ron. Harper has struggled with longer defenders and Hawkins really locked down Ron who was 1-9

Don’t get carried away. That game went south quick when Plummer hit all those threes. Ron had great games against Illinois before that game like 25 and 28 point games and he used to abuse a taller Giorgi all the time. I expect Hawkins or whoever is not going to stop him.

But it probably will not play out that way. Early in the year and without Geo and without Paul and Caleb being their present selves , Ron had to be the main scoring option and the scouting report was to shut him down. Although he is still a part of the scouting report , if you have noticed we are getting almost the starting 5 in double figures ( MSU was 6 with Dean , Ohio State was 4 and Wisconsin was 4 ) . We also scored 84,66 and 73 and only 66 because Ron had 6 . We also won with Ron getting only 6 against Ohio State but I would prefer him not do that again.

Paul’s dynamic and aggressiveness looking to shoot and score not just pass has changed the dynamic . I also think we are starting to see and getting back the Geo we thought we were getting.
I am not as worried about defending Illinois ‘ lineup as Pike with 3 days usually draws up a great game plan but I think Illinois now has to worry about defending us and I do not think their guards can do it .
My biggest concern is rebounding especially on the defensive glass as this is all hands on deck as I want all guards having 4-5 besides Cliff and Ron doing more than fair share. Stop the second chance points and stop the second chance kick outs from 3. Kofi will get his but don’t let the other guys beat you. Pike used the game plan against Purdue and Michigan and I expect it again.

 

[RU-ROCS]

Question is going to be whether we can knock down our shots.

Ironically, in the 30 pt. blowout at Illinois, RU shot 41% from 3 point range (making 7 threes), It was the abysmal shooting (30%) from 2-point land that killed us, along with a lack of defense and getting killed on the boards.

 

[RUHouston]

First, win the tip…IIRC with the win at Wisky we are now 20-5 when we win the tip…and that’s hard against Kofi but I’d bet Cliff has better hops…

Second, just like with Garza, Kofi is gonna score…so let him to a degree…I thought I saw NWstern put two bodies on him with THEIR HANDS UP….we got caught on a lot of ticky tack fouls reaching in off the Wisky cuts…you know Underwood saw that plus the Illini are much faster off the dribble than Wisky…

But yeah, DEFEND THE THREE! Don’t let them get hot….

For us, the biggest difference, IMHO, isn’t just having Geo back but the emergence of Paul…he’s the X factor that the Illini will need to solve because, damn! He’s got PIVOT! LOL

 

[Degaz-RU]

I’m putting Caleb on Plummer in an effort to prevent him from getting comfy from deep. If Caleb can stay with Plummer in terms of quickness, I don’t see how the 6-1 Plummer will get a good look over the 6-7 McConnell.

- Caleb on Plummer
- Baker on Frazier
- Paul on Damonte Williams
- Ron on Grandison
- Cliff on Kofi

We will need to mix in that 2-3 matchup zone in order to slow down their speed and dribble penetration.

But I don’t know if I would use too much full court press in this game, as their guards are sooo quick, so I don’t know if we can be successful with that. Maybe a very soft 3/4 court type of thing could slow them down.

 

[AreYouNUTS]

Cliff is going to need to play stronger than ever before on boards, loose balls and just having the ball in his hands against Kofi. Hopefully somehow draw 2 early fouls on him as well.

 

[Loyal_2RU]

Hand violence from other than Cliff needs to harass Kofi. And guard the three

 

[Big East Beast]

Cliff vs Kofi is a great matchup.

Harper needs to redeem himself, Geo will be ready to go and then RAC will be hoppin.

Jones was the leading scorer & rebounder last game and Caleb led in assists.

We’re literally a different team at this stage.

 

[RUChoppin]

Ironically, in the 30 pt. blowout at Illinois, RU shot 41% from 3 point range (making 7 threes), It was the abysmal shooting (30%) from 2-point land that killed us, along with a lack of defense and getting killed on the boards.

We shot .309 for the game, and .275 from 2P range. 41 of our 68 shots were put up by starters Jones, Harper, Mulcahy, and McConnell..... and they went 9/41 (.220)

 

[Scangg]

Don’t get carried away. That game went south quick when Plummer hit all those threes. Ron had great games against Illinois before that game like 25 and 28 point games and he used to abuse a taller Giorgi all the time. I expect Hawkins or whoever is not going to stop him.

But it probably will not play out that way. Early in the year and without Geo and without Paul and Caleb being their present selves , Ron had to be the main scoring option and the scouting report was to shut him down. Although he is still a part of the scouting report , if you have noticed we are getting almost the starting 5 in double figures ( MSU was 6 with Dean , Ohio State was 4 and Wisconsin was 4 ) . We also scored 84,66 and 73 and only 66 because Ron had 6 . We also won with Ron getting only 6 against Ohio State but I would prefer him not do that again.

Paul’s dynamic and aggressiveness looking to shoot and score not just pass has changed the dynamic . I also think we are starting to see and getting back the Geo we thought we were getting.
I am not as worried about defending Illinois ‘ lineup as Pike with 3 days usually draws up a great game plan but I think Illinois now has to worry about defending us and I do not think their guards can do it .
My biggest concern is rebounding especially on the defensive glass as this is all hands on deck as I want all guards having 4-5 besides Cliff and Ron doing more than fair share. Stop the second chance points and stop the second chance kick outs from 3. Kofi will get his but don’t let the other guys beat you. Pike used the game plan against Purdue and Michigan and I expect it again.

I agree with most of this, but Harper abusing Giorgi is irrelevant now. Ron wasn't just off shooting. Hawkins really shut him down good if you watched, not just the stat line.

Apparently Hawkins has struggled lately and hasn't played as much. RJ Melendez listed at 6'7 205 freshman is taking some of his minutes. Freshman on Harper is a matchup I like much more than Hawkins.

6'6 210 Grandison will be the starting matchup if they stick with same starters. That is a matchup Ron can get going against.

Don't be surprised to see Hawkins subbed in if Harper gets off to a hot start early in the game