Ken Pom

[GORU2014]

I’m still not sure 12-8 in conference gets us in.

We’re at 103 in NET and lately our games have had around an 8 spot impact either way.

Assuming that holds up (could change with road or big wins), 12 conference wins would only have us in the 90s.

I believe MSU has had the worst NET for a tourney team at 71 (could be wrong though).

To get to that point, we’d probably need to win 13-14+ including the conference tourney with some road wins mixed in.

Hopefully I’m wrong

 

[G- RUnit]

Looking at this season as a whole, we're just wildly inconsistent.

- There are games where our offense went MIA (Merrimack, Lafayette, Illinois, Penn State, Iowa all at 51 pts or less), and others where we lit it up (Nebraska, Michigan, Maine, CCSU)
- There are games where our defense went MIA (UMass, Illinois, Seton Hall) and games where it was stifling (Iowa, CCSU, Merrimack)
- There are games where we looked like world beaters (Purdue, Michigan, Nebraska) and games where we looked hapless (Lafayette, Illinois)
- We were Jekyll/Hyde vs. Maryland with two entirely different teams showing up to play each half

I don't know what team I'm going to get when I tune in. We could blow the doors off Minnesota, or lose 64-46.

Best post of the season!

 

[RUJMM78]

good post, Rutgers is finding ways to win and seem to know how to win which is a big plus going forward. We are getting by but our performances from game to game and half to half are showing inconsistencies. This 4 game stretch is important because its all vs teams that RU is better then but 3 are on the road. To be successful we need to show consistency here.

How this team perforns and the results of games is largely driven by Baker and Harper.In this game they only scored 23 points which meant winning could only result with a very low scoring game,

 

[Mr. Magoo1]

NET	PREV				ROAD	NEUTRAL	HOME	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
7	7	Purdue	Big Ten	15-2	2-1	4-0	9-1	4-1	2-1	2-0	7-0
11	11	Illinois	Big Ten	13-4	3-1	2-1	8-2	1-3	3-1	6-0	3-0
17	17	Wisconsin	Big Ten	15-2	4-1	3-0	8-1	5-1	5-1	1-0	4-0
22	22	Ohio St.	Big Ten	12-4	2-3	1-1	9-0	3-4	1-0	4-0	4-0
24	25	Michigan St.	Big Ten	14-3	3-0	3-2	8-1	2-2	3-0	5-1	4-0
25	21	Iowa	Big Ten	13-5	2-4	1-0	10-1	0-4	4-1	2-0	7-0
33	33	Indiana	Big Ten	13-4	1-4	1-0	11-0	1-2	1-2	4-0	7-0
53	54	Michigan	Big Ten	8-7	1-4	2-1	5-2	0-4	1-2	4-1	3-0
81	80	Northwestern	Big Ten	8-7	2-2	1-1	5-4	1-5	1-0	0-2	6-0
84	82	Minnesota	Big Ten	10-5	3-2	2-0	5-3	2-5	0-0	3-0	5-0
85	85	Penn St.	Big Ten	8-7	1-3	1-1	6-3	0-5	2-1	2-1	4-0
105	113	Rutgers	Big Ten	11-6	1-5	0-0	10-1	2-2	2-2	1-1	6-1
111	114	Maryland	Big Ten	9-9	1-3	2-1	6-5	1-4	2-1	2-4	4-0
200	201	Nebraska	Big Ten	6-13	0-5	0-1	6-7	0-6	0-6	0-0	6-1

Us and Nebraska are the only B1G teams with a Q4 loss and we are the only B1G team with both a Q3 and a Q4 loss. Yikes. Lots of work to do.

 

[mugrat86]

Beating us is worth a lot.

We beat Clemson and they are higher than PSU. I would understand if we were in at least the same stratosphere as Penn St

 

[bac2therac]

I’m still not sure 12-8 in conference gets us in.

We’re at 103 in NET and lately our games have had around an 8 spot impact either way.

Assuming that holds up (could change with road or big wins), 12 conference wins would only have us in the 90s.

I believe MSU has had the worst NET for a tourney team at 71 (could be wrong though).

To get to that point, we’d probably need to win 13-14+ including the conference tourney with some road wins mixed in.

Hopefully I’m wrong

I think 12-8 will include a bunch of Q1 and 2 wins and get us in the 60s. We would also need another Big 10 tourney win to seal the deal. Like it or not the NET overall ranking is going to suck no matter what. Just have to get some of these wins. Of all Wisconsin at home would be huge although I would trade a beatdown by Wisconsin at the rac if we beat them by 1 on the road.

 

[bac2therac]

We beat Clemson and they are higher than PSU. I would understand if we were in at least the same stratosphere as Penn St

Clemson has a Q4 loss

 

[Scangg]

We were Jekyll/Hyde at the beginning of the season (5-5). Since then, Rutgers has won 6 of 7 games by playing their style of tough defense.

We seemed to want to start being a more offensive team. Reality set in that the team wasn't going anywhere if they didn't get back to their defensive identity.

For me that was the most frustrating part of the slow start. Senior leaders who had been in the program but we were consistently lacking defensive intensity and effort and lost our identity of being a Pike team

 

[Salvi's Headband]

What do we need ? 12-8 in league ?

12-8 and a win in the BTT and we have a small chance at the play in game, maybe.

 

[GORU2014]

I think 12-8 will include a bunch of Q1 and 2 wins and get us in the 60s. We would also need another Big 10 tourney win to seal the deal. Like it or not the NET overall ranking is going to suck no matter what. Just have to get some of these wins. Of all Wisconsin at home would be huge although I would trade a beatdown by Wisconsin at the rac if we beat them by 1 on the road.

I think it’s a big difference if 3 of the 7 remaining wins are on the road vs. 1 of the 7. Blowouts would help (especially with the harder upcoming schedule) but even after the Nebraska win we only climbed 9 spots IIRC.

Hopefully, we can win some road games and get 12-15 spots out of each of those and maybe 10-12 spots out of home blowouts.

 

[bac2therac]

I will take 3 road wins: Minnesota, Nebraska, Michigan

4 home wins: Maryland, Michigan State, Ohio State or Wisconsin, Penn State

that would give us 3 Q1 wins, 1 Q2 win and probably 3 Q3 wins if Penn State does not finish in top 75

4 Q1 losses and 2 Q2 losses

that would put RU at 18-12 and 5-6 in Q1 and 3-4 in Q2

 

[bac2therac]

Northwestern and Minnesota are not far from being Q1 games, but will they win enough to move into the top 75

 

[MLBash93]

I’m still not sure 12-8 in conference gets us in.

We’re at 103 in NET and lately our games have had around an 8 spot impact either way.

Assuming that holds up (could change with road or big wins), 12 conference wins would only have us in the 90s.

I believe MSU has had the worst NET for a tourney team at 71 (could be wrong though).

To get to that point, we’d probably need to win 13-14+ including the conference tourney with some road wins mixed in.

Hopefully I’m wrong

12-8 has been good enough for 5th/6th in the B10 the last 4 seasons.

You really think a team that finishes 5th or 6th in the big ten isn't getting in.

I definitely don't

 

[GORU2014]

I will take 3 road wins: Minnesota, Nebraska, Michigan

4 home wins: Maryland, Michigan State, Ohio State or Wisconsin, Penn State

that would give us 3 Q1 wins, 1 Q2 win and probably 3 Q3 wins if Penn State does not finish in top 75

4 Q1 losses and 2 Q2 losses

that would put RU at 18-12 and 5-6 in Q1 and 3-4 in Q2

Probably gets our NET to around 75-80 before conference tournament.

Still think 12 could do it but just saying we shouldn’t be surprised if it leaves us on the wrong side of the bubble especially after last year.

13 including the conference tourney is probably right side of bubble IMO and 14 including tourney is safe

 

[Scarlet Blind_rivals]

Florida St beats 1-14 N. Florida 86-73, the line was -22 1/2
FSU dropped 5 places in Ken Pom, 49 to 54, and probably most metrics.
Why the Rider game would be high risk if you have an off game against a bad team, it only pays off if it is a blowout.

 

[GORU2014]

12-8 has been good enough for 5th/6th in the B10 the last 4 seasons.

You really think a team that finishes 5th or 6th in the big ten isn't getting in.

I definitely don't

We tied for 6th in the conference last year and IIRC we were the second to last at large to make the tourney.

We tied for 5th in 2019-2020 and were a bubble team until the last 1-2 games of the season.

Nebraska was 5th in 2018 and went 13-5 and made the NIT.

There’s enough precedent for there to be concern.

 

[Scangg]

12-8 has been good enough for 5th/6th in the B10 the last 4 seasons.

You really think a team that finishes 5th or 6th in the big ten isn't getting in.

I definitely don't

They don't take teams based on where you finish in your conference final regular season standings. A team lower than you in conference can have a clearly better NCAA resume

 

[RUPartisan]

Why do NET rankings seem to so heavily weigh bad loses (Q4) rather than good wins (Q1)?

Additionally why does Florida who has almost the same resume about 50 spots higher than us and we seem to be stuck in the 100's?

 

[bitnez]

The numbers are likely never going to work in our favor. This is simply about changing the narrative for this team. Right now we are still saddled with the team who has some bad early season losses (with a mention of beating Purdue.) Win 3 out of the next 4 we’ll be 8-3 in league, 14-7 overall, and the national narrative will change to us being one of the hottest teams in the country. And there will be discussion if we can actually win the B1G. That’s our best case scenario heading into Feb/March when somehow we’ll need to figure out a way to go 5-4 the rest of the regular season.

IMO, that’s really the only path

 

[RU MAN]

What do we need ? 12-8 in league ?

Plum that's what I think. I also would love it if we could reschedule Rider and get that win. That would give us an 18-12 record. Ideally if we could go 13-7 (not impossible) plus 1 or 2 wins in the B1G tourney, I believe that would solidify an NCAA tourney bid.

 

[RUChoppin]

Why do NET rankings seem to so heavily weigh bad loses (Q4) rather than good wins (Q1)?

Same reason that getting a 100/100 on a test doesn't impact an 88% semester average as much as getting a 15/100 does.

 

[RUChoppin]

Additionally why does Florida who has almost the same resume about 50 spots higher than us and we seem to be stuck in the 100's?

Florida's Q4 loss is against 198 Texas Southern, while our Q4 loss is against 322 Lafayette. That's a big difference.
Florida's Q3 loss is against 111 Maryland, while our Q3 loss is against 182 UMass.

Florida's other 4 losses are all Q1, while we have 2 Q1 and 2 Q2

 

[RUPartisan]

Florida's Q4 loss is against 198 Texas Southern, while our Q4 loss is against 322 Lafayette. That's a big difference.
Florida's Q3 loss is against 111 Maryland, while our Q3 loss is against 182 UMass.

Florida's other 4 losses are all Q1, while we have 2 Q1 and 2 Q2

Ok I get that but ties into part of my original question. We have an additional Q1 win. I just don't see our resume being now 60 points worse than theirs on NET. Realistically is there really much difference between Texas Southern and Lafayette. The only reason they are 198 is because they beat a higher rated Florida which then artificially inflates Florida's ranking.

 

[bac2therac]

Florida also has a better sos and better non conference sos

the lafayette loss was beyond atrocious to infinity

 

[GORU2014]

Ok I get that but ties into part of my original question. We have an additional Q1 win. I just don't see our resume being now 60 points worse than theirs on NET. Realistically is there really much difference between Texas Southern and Lafayette. The only reason they are 198 is because they beat a higher rated Florida which then artificially inflates Florida's ranking.

There’s honestly a good chance nobody working on the algorithm pictured a loss like that ever happening by a team as (now) solid as ours

 

[RUfromSoCal?]

we are going to break the computers this year!!!

 

[RUChoppin]

There’s honestly a good chance nobody working on the algorithm pictured a loss like that ever happening by a team as (now) solid as ours

Seriously. This is like entering a score of 0 for a kid missing a big exam, and it dropping the grade from 82 to 68 after a semester's worth of B-/C+ work. Ideally this is the sort of thing that the quadrant system can help the committee with, rather than just seeing computer rankings from 1-300+

 

[RUPartisan]

Florida also has a better sos and better non conference sos

the lafayette loss was beyond atrocious to infinity

Yes I get all that but it is one game no matter how bad it is. Why does this one game completely crush our resume? Look at some of the other top 60 teams. Some have no zero Q1 wins.

Please explain the difference between losing to Lafayette and losing to Texas Southern. Both ****** Q4 teams

 

[bac2therac]

Its 150 spots difference...almost the same difference from Texas Southern to Iowa

 

[RU-ROCS]

We tied for 6th in the conference last year and IIRC we were the second to last at large to make the tourney.

We tied for 5th in 2019-2020 and were a bubble team until the last 1-2 games of the season.

Nebraska was 5th in 2018 and went 13-5 and made the NIT.

There’s enough precedent for there to be concern.

The point is valid, but IIRC Nebraska had a very weak in-conference schedule in 2018 where they dodged home and home against most of the Big 10's best teams and swept the bottom-tier teams. they only had 2 wins over ranked opponents. This year, we will finish with a murderer's row of top-rated Big 10 opponents. With a win over Purdue already in the bank, IF we beat a few of them we should be OK.

 

[GORU2014]

The point is valid, but IIRC Nebraska had a very weak in-conference schedule in 2018 where they dodged home and home against most of the Big 10's best teams and swept the bottom-tier teams. they only had 2 wins over ranked opponents. This year, we will finish with a murderer's row of top-rated Big 10 opponents. With a win over Purdue already in the bank, IF we beat a few of them we should be OK.

I hope so. They also had 2 fewer conference games to get those 13 wins but I get what you’re saying. Don’t get me wrong, I think it’s a lot harder to keep a top 5 team in the conference out of the tournament and it helps with the narrative, but I just personally would feel more comfortable with 13 or 14 unless we change our name to Wisconsin or Michigan prior.

 

[fluoxetine]

Ok I get that but ties into part of my original question. We have an additional Q1 win. I just don't see our resume being now 60 points worse than theirs on NET. Realistically is there really much difference between Texas Southern and Lafayette. The only reason they are 198 is because they beat a higher rated Florida which then artificially inflates Florida's ranking.

That's not how it works unless someone really ****** up when coding the NET.

Its 150 spots difference...almost the same difference from Texas Southern to Iowa

This is not really true. Or, I mean, it's technically true in the "spots" sense but that doesn't really matter. On Kenpom for example

The #10 team (LSU) is rated +24.69
The #110 team (Nevada) is rated +5.96 (difference of 18.73)
The #210 team (Duquesne) is rated -3.04 (difference of 9)
The #310 team (Tennessee St.) is rated -12.48 (difference of 9.44)
The worst team, #358 Delaware St., is rated -28.99 (difference of 16.51 for only 48 spots)

I started at #10 arbitrarily, but the difference between #1 Gonzaga and #10 LSU is 6.95 for only 9 spots, which is almost a third as much as the next 100 spots are worth and 2/3 as much as the jumps between 110-210 and 210-310.

The moral of the story is not all "spots" differences are created equal.

 

[SirPerceval]

Same reason that getting a 100/100 on a test doesn't impact an 88% semester average as much as getting a 15/100 does.

I don’t think that’s what he was getting at. It’s more like you have two tests and get a 100% and a 15% but your final grade is not 57.5% it’s 30% because the lower score was weighted more. People see that we have 4 Q1/Q2 wins and yet 1 Q4 loss is impacting heavily. I.e in comparison to say a Michigan with only 1 Q1/Q2 win but no Q4 losses being 50 spots ahead of us (oh and we beat them)

 

[ru66]

Always premature-- try waiting till at least end of season-- one way or another things shake out

 

[fluoxetine]

I don’t think that’s what he was getting at. It’s more like you have two tests and get a 100% and a 15% but your final grade is not 57.5% it’s 30% because the lower score was weighted more. People see that we have 4 Q1/Q2 wins and yet 1 Q4 loss is impacting heavily. I.e in comparison to say a Michigan with only 1 Q1/Q2 win but no Q4 losses being 50 spots ahead of us (oh and we beat them)

People keep bringing up Michigan, but the reason Michigan is way ahead of us is because they have very good adjusted efficiency. They are #30 in Kenpom. While Kenpom is not directly used in the NET the "adjusted net efficiency" part of the NET is basically exactly what Kenpom is doing.

 

[Scarlet Blind_rivals]

2017-18, Nebraska was 22-9(13-5) and lost 1st round of B1G tourny, 22-10
They were 0-9 vs teams in the RPI top 50, when RPI determined at larges, the other loss was a 20 point loss at RPI 100-200 16-17 St. John's team.
Can't say that about us even in 2021-22 not winning a top 50.

 

[kcg88]

A team that plays one possession games with Lehigh, Lafayette, UMass, and DePaul (all outside the top 100) and has also lost games by 35, 17, and 14 (all on the road, granted) is not going to be ranked very highly by computers. That's almost half of our season right there.

 

[rubaseball78_rivals]

We beat Clemson and they are higher than PSU. I would understand if we were in at least the same stratosphere as Penn St

Turn your sarcasm meter on.

 

[Scarlet Shack]

Northwestern and Minnesota are not far from being Q1 games, but will they win enough to move into the top 75

I was looking at this last night

I don’t think Iowa will stay a quad one win ...im counting them as a quad 2


So right now
1-2 quad 1 (Purdue , at Illinois ,at SHU)
2-2 quad 2 (Michigan, Iowa , At DePaul , at penn state )
2-1 quad 3 (at umass , at Maryland. Clemson)
6-1 quad 4
11-6

With the remaining 13 games ...I think we get this


Quad 3 - penn state , Maryland and at Nebraska ...three are must wins

Quad 2- Michigan state (I am projection a little slip ), at northwestern , at Minnesota (I don’t think the last two will do enough to end up in the top 75)....we need 2 of 3

Quad 1 -Ohio state , Wisconsin , illinois at Wisconsin , at Purdue , at Michigan , at Indiana , ....we MUST get two of these 7

That would make us 12-8/18-12 and I think right on the bubble

Quad 1-3-7
Quad 2 4-3
Quad 3 5-1
Quad 4 6-1

This resume makes me really really nervous

I really think we need 3 of 7 in the remaining quad 1 games to get to 13-7/19-11...and that would give us some league buffer from the 10-10 or 11-9 teams in our league that don’t have a quad 3 or quad 4 loss.....

 

[bac2therac]

Alot depends on what everyone else is doing.

I feel the Big 10 tourney is going to be an opportunity for a few schools including RU. Beating Wisconsin would be huge. Winning at Indiana as well