Three point percentage in big ten games
- Thread starter Shell21
- Start date
How about that! Continue this and we will be very competitive. Let’s get the free throws up as well and that will seal the deal.
How many times here have people said we need to get close to 40% and take more threes and had people argue that it wasn't that important?
It's great.. let's keep it up but like it was last night... that is.. threes with motion offense and screens... looked great.. looked like "basketball"...
It's great.. let's keep it up but like it was last night... that is.. threes with motion offense and screens... looked great.. looked like "basketball"...
That's great but we will need to be able to win shooting (hopefully) 35% or even 33% because 46.3% is not going to continue.
How do you know? These guys are D1 HM players. Go watch a practice, they'll knock em down all day. If you play within the flow of the offense and get open looks, it's just like practice.
I know numbers tend to level off, but if Jaden Jones and Hyatt can knock down a couple, it would offset the red-hot RHJ and Geo Baker....
The key is or remains, pulling Mulcahy back to a wing role and his 3s are going to be the ones teams will give us.....and I know fans will say "Cliff, don't shoot that top of the arc 3".....but an open 3, is better than a contested 3, elsewhere.
The key is or remains, pulling Mulcahy back to a wing role and his 3s are going to be the ones teams will give us.....and I know fans will say "Cliff, don't shoot that top of the arc 3".....but an open 3, is better than a contested 3, elsewhere.
I am happy with the wins against Purdue and Michigan. My outlook for the season has only budged a bit higher because of the actual wins. My expectation of wins in the upcoming games are little changed.
I still need to see a lot of things before I see a 10-10 or better team.
This...what this tells me is that we've won 5 out of 6 basically being lucky. Percentage will revert to the mean so I hope we're ready to defend and rebound.
I would sign up for 10-10 and an NIT bid, because the season was looking like a total disaster.
All 3 games so far have been against center oriented offenses. We will now face teams that are looking to score from all positions. Well coached teams will pick on Mulcahy, Jones and Hyatt. Hyatt is more ready defensively than Jones right now.
You make your own luck. While I agree with your premise 100% we definitely need to credit getting good shots. Baker (mostly) getting us in sets and letting our sets getting good shots put us in position to shoot 46%
also defensively there has been a noticeable improvement in defending the line
So, overall, our full year average is .322 (77/239)
.500 - Palmquist (3/6)
.431 - Harper (28/65)
.396 - Baker (19/48)
.333 - Mag (3/9)
.281 - Mulcahy (9/32)
.217 - McConnell (5/23)
.207 - Jones (6/29)
.182 - Hyatt (4/22)
.000 - Omoruyi (0/3), Miller (0/1), Reiber (0/1)
Over the last 6 games, though (Illinois, Purdue, SHU, Maine, CCSU, Michigan) we've averaged. 398 (43/108)
.600 - Palmquist (3/5)
.538 - Harper (14/26)
.500 - Mag (3/6)
.455 - Baker (10/22)
.364 - McConnell (4/11)
.357 - Mulcahy (5/14)
.231 - Jones (3/13)
.143 - Hyatt (1/7)
.000 - Omoruyi (0/2), Miller (0/1), Reiber (0/1)
Compare that to the first 7 games average of .260 (34/131)
.359 - Harper (14/39)
.346 - Baker (9/26)
.222 - Mulcahy (4/18)
.200 - Hyatt (3/15)
.188 - Jones (3/16)
.083 - McConnell (1/12)
.000 - Mag (0/3), Palmquist (0/1), Omoruyi (0/1)
The last 6 game rate is unsustainable.... but where is our "real" percentage going to land at the end of the year, closer to the first 7 games or closer to the last 6 games?
.500 - Palmquist (3/6)
.431 - Harper (28/65)
.396 - Baker (19/48)
.333 - Mag (3/9)
.281 - Mulcahy (9/32)
.217 - McConnell (5/23)
.207 - Jones (6/29)
.182 - Hyatt (4/22)
.000 - Omoruyi (0/3), Miller (0/1), Reiber (0/1)
Over the last 6 games, though (Illinois, Purdue, SHU, Maine, CCSU, Michigan) we've averaged. 398 (43/108)
.600 - Palmquist (3/5)
.538 - Harper (14/26)
.500 - Mag (3/6)
.455 - Baker (10/22)
.364 - McConnell (4/11)
.357 - Mulcahy (5/14)
.231 - Jones (3/13)
.143 - Hyatt (1/7)
.000 - Omoruyi (0/2), Miller (0/1), Reiber (0/1)
Compare that to the first 7 games average of .260 (34/131)
.359 - Harper (14/39)
.346 - Baker (9/26)
.222 - Mulcahy (4/18)
.200 - Hyatt (3/15)
.188 - Jones (3/16)
.083 - McConnell (1/12)
.000 - Mag (0/3), Palmquist (0/1), Omoruyi (0/1)
The last 6 game rate is unsustainable.... but where is our "real" percentage going to land at the end of the year, closer to the first 7 games or closer to the last 6 games?
Because 46.3% is 3.6 percentage points higher than the highest three point percentage for a team so far this season?
Also the same way I knew we weren't going to shoot like 15% for the rest of the year after the first few games..
I do think having Baker in the fold makes a big difference in expected %.
Of all Pike's preseason talk the most head scratching was the "Paul is my point guard". Geo is our only PG on the roster. He is best equipped to get us in to offense while heavily guarded. On of the most underrated things about college basketball is the value in putting pressure on opposing guards. The shot clock is only 30 and the 3 point line is so important. Disrupting an offense is extremely important.
When fans say we are playing hero ball or we don't run an offense it is almost always because the opposing team is putting pressure on our lead guard making it difficult or almost impossible to run our sets.
Of all Pike's preseason talk the most head scratching was the "Paul is my point guard". Geo is our only PG on the roster. He is best equipped to get us in to offense while heavily guarded. On of the most underrated things about college basketball is the value in putting pressure on opposing guards. The shot clock is only 30 and the 3 point line is so important. Disrupting an offense is extremely important.
When fans say we are playing hero ball or we don't run an offense it is almost always because the opposing team is putting pressure on our lead guard making it difficult or almost impossible to run our sets.
Baker's the guy who mostly brings up the ball, especially when there's backcourt pressure... but as far as getting us into our offensive sets in the halfcourt, that's been a platoon of Baker, McConnell, and Mulcahy.
Mulcahy isn't our primary ball handler, but he's our primary facilitator, with Baker as a close second. Adjusted for minutes, Mulcahy is making 6.2 assists to 2.2 tov per 40 minutes, at a 2.86 ast/tov rate. Baker's right behind at 5.2 assists to 1.9 tov per 40, at a 2.71 ast/tov rate.
If you didn't watch the games and only looked at the stats, it'd be easy to assume Mulcahy was our PG, Baker a combo SG, Harper our SF, and McConnell our PF.
Just saying that they are starting to figure out their roles. Mulcahy isn't our best ball handler vs. pressure (I'd put Baker, McConnell, and Harper ahead of him), but he's probably the best guy on the floor for getting guys the ball in a position to score. Which is impressive given that he's not drawing attention on scouting reports as a "dangerous scorer" the way Baker is.
Baker's got the the best PG skillset of ball handling under pressure, penetrating off the dribble, and creating his own shot. Mulcahy's more of that "floor general" PG skillset, able to find the gaps in the defense to facilitate scoring and looking for his own shot second.
Mulcahy's not really a "complete" PG or a "true" PG... he's more of a "facilitating SF" type of role. And as long as we have Baker to handle the pressure ball handling role, that's fine.
He's the 4th or 5th scoring option on the floor most times..... our primary 3 scorers are Harper, Baker, and Omoruyi, and as long as they're carrying the scoring load, Mulcahy and McConnell can be more opportunistic.
Man, I read some of the posts in this thread and I'm not sure if some of you want Rutgers to be bad or you just so desperately want to be right.
I don't know how the three point shooting will go for the rest of the season, but it's clear right now the offense Pikiell wants to run is settling in for this team and they are getting and making open shots. I hope it continues.
I don't know how the three point shooting will go for the rest of the season, but it's clear right now the offense Pikiell wants to run is settling in for this team and they are getting and making open shots. I hope it continues.
I promise you if we lose 61-59 at PSU this week getting good looks and shoot 4-19 from 3 I will be the 1st one to say darn we lost, but we played hard and would have won on the road if we had a normal shooting game.
Good post. Paul is 26th in the entire country in assist to turnover ratio. I'll take that in my point guard, point facilitator, or whatever. Also, as you point out, Paul, Geo, and Caleb are all interchanging at the 1, 2, and 3 spots. They each have their strengths and this versatility creates matchup problems to our benefit.
Mulcahy is an odd case when it comes to threes.
I recall at the beginning of last year people argued with me over PM's ability to shoot the three.. when stats showed the previous season (2019-2020) he was a close 3rd place in 3-point percentage at 33.3%.
And this season when he started so cold.. for so long.. it was based on his leading the team the previous year shooting 39.3%.
So this season, he is now at 28.1% but earlier I recall announcers talking about 18%.
And it seems to me that teams are begging him to shoot the three now.
So here is a plan for next year for any player we want to shoot threes in tight OOC and conference games...
We have them pull a "Mulcahy" and in games against cupcakes we have them miss from three.. as often as the score allows. Then when important games come around scouts will see that low 3-point percentage and beg them to shoot the three... easy peasy!
How about when teams are down by 2 and try to miss a FT on purpose and make it.
Easier solution....make the "mulcahy" be the half court heave guy.
That is my lament for Geo... not these last games where he looks more and more the kind of player you described... but too often it looks like when the team sees him with the ball they know the next thing they will see is a jump-back shot off the dribble. That is not what a point guard should be seen as.
But as I said, he has gotten better with that and players do seem to move for him more lately... which was one of my main concerns early season.. not enough motion of offense, not enough work to create a passing target for whoever had the ball... the worst case of which was the whole team seemingly standing around for whoever had the ball.. Geo, Paul, Caleb, Hyatt.. did not matter.. it was assumed they would shoot.. though Cliff and Paul was an exception.. it seems like when Paul had the ball Cliff lit up like he might get a pass.
But these last games.. no complaints.. not enough solo play to be a concern. Everyone seems to be working out there.. helping eachother.
Yeah.. RHJ is not the guy you want missing those shots... obviously. I always thought you should find what basketball player was also a baseball player or QB to take those long heaves... just throw it into the hoop. But half-court or shorter is close enough for basketball players to "shoot" it. (yes, I am picturing that miracle shot vs Purdue now.. so thanks).
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Anyone watching Purdue-Wisconsin game......Trevion Williams threw a 94 foot missle of a pass that Edey caught under the basket over 2 guys and dunked it. Had to be the best basketball pass I ever saw.
That thread from January last year is a great reminder of how so many wrote last year’s team off as a total disappointment. All they did thereafter was go to the Tournament and get RU’s first win there in decades!
I'd be interested to see a breakdown of Mulcahy's makes and misses. From the naked eye, he has a much better "make" percentage when he has time to set himself and then launch, but when he has to get off a "quick" three, he usually misses.
Which makes the point that he's more effective as a "spot-up" shooter and not a shooter off the dribble or off a curl.
In the 3 B1G games, we've been consistent with our 3 pt shooting,
@ Illinois 2pt 14-51 27.5% 3pt 7-17 41.2%
Vs Purdue 2pt 18-34 52.9% 3pt 7-14 50%
Vs Michigan 2pt 16-33 48.5% 3pt 11-23 47.8%
Totals 2pt 48-118 40.8% 3pt 25-54 46.3
Very odd shot selection of 2 pointers @ Illinois, Purdue and Michigan is where we need to keep our shot selections at. Our 5 starters @ Ilinois- Jaden 2-10, RHJ 0-6, Paul 2-9, Caleb 1-4 and Cliff 4-9 were a combined 9-38 23.7% from 2pt.
I think the 40%+ 3 pointers are here to stay with Geo, RHJ, Paul and Caleb taking the majority of them. Clemson was 7-19, Seton Hall game the flu/cold was running through various players and they shot 4-18, CCSU 4-16 we didn't need 3s but Jaden shot 1-6. Those 4 have.been pretty consistent since the Clemson win, excluding the SHU game.
@ Illinois 2pt 14-51 27.5% 3pt 7-17 41.2%
Vs Purdue 2pt 18-34 52.9% 3pt 7-14 50%
Vs Michigan 2pt 16-33 48.5% 3pt 11-23 47.8%
Totals 2pt 48-118 40.8% 3pt 25-54 46.3
Very odd shot selection of 2 pointers @ Illinois, Purdue and Michigan is where we need to keep our shot selections at. Our 5 starters @ Ilinois- Jaden 2-10, RHJ 0-6, Paul 2-9, Caleb 1-4 and Cliff 4-9 were a combined 9-38 23.7% from 2pt.
I think the 40%+ 3 pointers are here to stay with Geo, RHJ, Paul and Caleb taking the majority of them. Clemson was 7-19, Seton Hall game the flu/cold was running through various players and they shot 4-18, CCSU 4-16 we didn't need 3s but Jaden shot 1-6. Those 4 have.been pretty consistent since the Clemson win, excluding the SHU game.
Greene - You are killing it in this thread. Very fundamental stuff that the average fan doesn’t see. Kudos. Have one on me.
Guys.. please. The career 3 point percentage of those guys are:
RHJ 33.1%
Geo 33.6%
Paul 33.6%
Caleb 27.7%
I will give you like 20-1 odds if you want to bet we shoot >40% from three the rest of the season.
In the first 9 games last year, when we were ranked #11 and people thought RHJ was the next Steph Curry we shot.. 39.3% from three.
The percentage stuff is at times probably 1 more made 3 per game over 20 B1G games.
And the more RU 3s taken is more important than the percentage.....as long as the 3s are in the flow of the offense, you take them....
I am not concerned about 4 off games from 3 point range out of 22 to 24 "legitimate opponents......& I am not going overboard about the 3 or 4 games where RU shoots lights out from 3.
The point of the matter (for me) is that RU has better looking shooters now than 3 years ago, 2 years ago and last year....
I am completely ignoring whatever numbers Jaden Jones shoots or has done so far....they are in line with the off shooting numbers of Harper, Mathis and others as frosh at RU.....same for Hyatt....both have solid shots and releases and I think both will hit shots as we move forward.
And the more RU 3s taken is more important than the percentage.....as long as the 3s are in the flow of the offense, you take them....
I am not concerned about 4 off games from 3 point range out of 22 to 24 "legitimate opponents......& I am not going overboard about the 3 or 4 games where RU shoots lights out from 3.
The point of the matter (for me) is that RU has better looking shooters now than 3 years ago, 2 years ago and last year....
I am completely ignoring whatever numbers Jaden Jones shoots or has done so far....they are in line with the off shooting numbers of Harper, Mathis and others as frosh at RU.....same for Hyatt....both have solid shots and releases and I think both will hit shots as we move forward.
There’s a better chance of us making the Sweet 16 than there is of us shooting 40% the rest of the way. Maybe even the Elite 8. It’s really hard to shoot 40% night in and out as a team.
mystic mango kombucha, funny name for an IPA. Lol!
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