Computer Rankings 2021-2022

[fluoxetine]

12/30/2021

Top 25
#1 Baylor (12-0)
#2 Auburn (12-1)
#3 Arizona (11-1)
#4 LSU (12-1)
#5 Michigan St (11-2)
#6 Kansas (10-1)
#7 Colorado St (9-0)
#8 Duke (11-1)
#9 Iowa St (12-0)
#10 Gonzaga (11-2)
#11 Purdue (12-1)
#12 UCLA (8-1)
#13 USC (12-0)
#14 Houston (11-2)
#15 Ohio St (8-2)
#16 Alabama (10-3)
#17 Providence (12-1)
#18 Xavier (11-2)
#19 Connecticut (10-3)
#20 Loyola-Chicago (8-2)
#21 Seton Hall (8-2)
#22 Wisconsin (10-2)
#23 Tennessee (9-3)
#24 Villanova (8-4)
#25 Minnesota (10-1)

Big Ten
1. #5 Michigan St (11-2, 2-0)
2. #11 Purdue (12-1, 1-1)
3. #15 Ohio St (8-2, 2-0)
4. #22 Wisconsin (10-2, 1-1)
5. #25 Minnesota (10-1, 1-1)
6. #31 Illinois (9-3, 2-0)
7. #37 Iowa (10-3, 0-2)
8. #49 Indiana (10-2, 1-1)
9. #51 Michigan (7-5, 1-1)
10. #53 Northwestern (7-2, 1-0)
11. #94 Maryland (8-4, 0-1)
12. #98 Penn St (5-5, 0-2)
13. #145 Rutgers (6-5, 1-1)
14. #199 Nebraska (6-7, 0-2)

Rutgers OOC Opponents
#348 Lehigh (1-10)
#305 Merrimack (5-8)
#304 NJIT (4-5)
#54 DePaul (9-2)
#324 Lafayette (2-8)
#142 Massachusetts (7-5)
#60 Clemson (9-4)
#21 Seton Hall (8-2)
#357 Maine (0-8)
#340 Central Conn (3-10)

Other Rutgers Computer Rankings
Torvik #129
Massey #100
Kenpom #105

Projected Records
Torvik 11-18 (Central Connecticut game is missing, presumably would be 12-18)
Massey 13-17

Probability of Making NCAA Tournament (according to Barttorvik model)
0%

 

[Knight Owl]

12/30/2021

Top 25
#1 Baylor (12-0)
#2 Auburn (12-1)
#3 Arizona (11-1)
#4 LSU (12-1)
#5 Michigan St (11-2)
#6 Kansas (10-1)
#7 Colorado St (9-0)
#8 Duke (11-1)
#9 Iowa St (12-0)
#10 Gonzaga (11-2)
#11 Purdue (12-1)
#12 UCLA (8-1)
#13 USC (12-0)
#14 Houston (11-2)
#15 Ohio St (8-2)
#16 Alabama (10-3)
#17 Providence (12-1)
#18 Xavier (11-2)
#19 Connecticut (10-3)
#20 Loyola-Chicago (8-2)
#21 Seton Hall (8-2)
#22 Wisconsin (10-2)
#23 Tennessee (9-3)
#24 Villanova (8-4)
#25 Minnesota (10-1)

Big Ten
1. #5 Michigan St (11-2, 2-0)
2. #11 Purdue (12-1, 1-1)
3. #15 Ohio St (8-2, 2-0)
4. #22 Wisconsin (10-2, 1-1)
5. #25 Minnesota (10-1, 1-1)
6. #31 Illinois (9-3, 2-0)
7. #37 Iowa (10-3, 0-2)
8. #49 Indiana (10-2, 1-1)
9. #51 Michigan (7-5, 1-1)
10. #53 Northwestern (7-2, 1-0)
11. #94 Maryland (8-4, 0-1)
12. #98 Penn St (5-5, 0-2)
13. #145 Rutgers (6-5, 1-1)
14. #199 Nebraska (6-7, 0-2)

Rutgers OOC Opponents
#348 Lehigh (1-10)
#305 Merrimack (5-8)
#304 NJIT (4-5)
#54 DePaul (9-2)
#324 Lafayette (2-8)
#142 Massachusetts (7-5)
#60 Clemson (9-4)
#21 Seton Hall (8-2)
#357 Maine (0-8)
#340 Central Conn (3-10)

Other Rutgers Computer Rankings
Torvik #129
Massey #100
Kenpom #105

Projected Records
Torvik 11-18 (Central Connecticut game is missing, presumably would be 12-18)
Massey 13-17

Probability of Making NCAA Tournament (according to Barttorvik model)
0%

Bubble team if they hold serve at home and grab a few road games. Going .500 in the conference certainly won’t work this year.

 

[fluoxetine]

01/01/2022

Top 25
#1 Baylor (13-0)
#2 Auburn (12-1)
#3 Arizona (11-1)
#4 LSU (12-1)
#5 Colorado St (9-0)
#6 Michigan St (11-2)
#7 Duke (11-1)
#8 Kansas (11-1)
#9 Iowa St (12-1)
#10 Gonzaga (11-2)
#11 Purdue (12-1)
#12 UCLA (8-1)
#13 USC (12-0)
#14 Houston (11-2)
#15 Providence (13-1)
#16 Ohio St (8-2)
#17 Alabama (10-3)
#18 Villanova (9-4)
#19 Xavier (11-2)
#20 Tennessee (9-3)
#21 Texas (11-2)
#22 Wisconsin (10-2)
#23 Connecticut (10-3)
#24 Loyola-Chicago (8-2)
#25 Kentucky (11-2)

Big Ten
1. #6 Michigan St (11-2, 2-0)
2. #11 Purdue (12-1, 1-1)
3. #16 Ohio St (8-2, 2-0)
4. #22 Wisconsin (10-2, 1-1)
5. #28 Minnesota (10-1, 1-1)
6. #38 Illinois (9-3, 2-0)
7. #40 Iowa (10-3, 0-2)
8. #48 Indiana (10-2, 1-1)
9. #51 Northwestern (7-2, 1-0)
10. #52 Michigan (7-5, 1-1)
11. #90 Maryland (8-4, 0-1)
12. #97 Penn St (5-5, 0-2)
13. #140 Rutgers (7-5, 1-1)
14. #201 Nebraska (6-7, 0-2)

Rutgers OOC Opponents
#344 Lehigh (2-10)
#289 Merrimack (6-8)
#288 NJIT (4-5)
#68 DePaul (9-3)
#319 Lafayette (2-8)
#145 Massachusetts (7-5)
#58 Clemson (9-4)
#27 Seton Hall (8-3)
#357 Maine (0-8)
#333 Central Conn (4-11)

Other Rutgers Computer Rankings
Torvik #131
Massey #95
Kenpom #101

Projected Records
Torvik 11-18 (Central Connecticut game is missing, would be 12-18)
Massey 13-17

Probability of Making NCAA Tournament (according to Barttorvik model)
0.1%

 

[fluoxetine]

01/04/2022

Top 25
#1 Baylor (14-0)
#2 Auburn (13-1)
#3 LSU (13-1)
#4 Arizona (12-1)
#5 Kansas (12-1)
#6 Michigan St (12-2)
#7 Iowa St (12-1)
#8 Gonzaga (11-2)
#9 Duke (12-1)
#10 Colorado St (10-0)
#11 UCLA (8-1)
#12 USC (12-0)
#13 Houston (12-2)
#14 Purdue (12-2)
#15 Ohio St (9-2)
#16 Alabama (10-3)
#17 Wisconsin (11-2)
#18 Villanova (9-4)
#19 Texas (12-2)
#20 Xavier (11-2)
#21 Tennessee (9-3)
#22 Connecticut (10-3)
#23 Loyola-Chicago (8-2)
#24 Seton Hall (9-3)
#25 Providence (13-2)

Big Ten
1. #6 Michigan St (12-2, 3-0)
2. #14 Purdue (12-2, 1-2)
3. #15 Ohio St (9-2, 3-0)
4. #17 Wisconsin (11-2, 2-1)
5. #28 Illinois (10-3, 3-0)
6. #32 Iowa (11-3, 1-2)
7. #37 Minnesota (10-2, 1-2)
8. #53 Indiana (10-3, 1-2)
9. #54 Northwestern (7-3, 1-1)
10. #72 Michigan (7-6, 1-2)
11. #81 Penn St (6-5, 1-2)
12. #94 Maryland (8-5, 0-2)
13. #118 Rutgers (8-5, 2-1)
14. #190 Nebraska (6-8, 0-3)

Rutgers OOC Opponents
#334 Lehigh (3-10)
#285 Merrimack (6-8)
#286 NJIT (5-5)
#68 DePaul (9-3)
#319 Lafayette (2-8)
#144 Massachusetts (7-5)
#70 Clemson (9-5)
#24 Seton Hall (9-3)
#357 Maine (0-9)
#333 Central Conn (4-11)

Other Rutgers Computer Rankings
Torvik #103
Massey #78
Kenpom #96

Projected Records
Torvik 14-16 (8-12)
Massey 14-16 (8-12)

Probability of Making NCAA Tournament (according to Barttorvik model)
0.3%

 

[fluoxetine]

01/08/2022

Top 25
#1 Baylor (15-0)
#2 LSU (14-1)
#3 Auburn (14-1)
#4 Arizona (12-1)
#5 Michigan St (13-2)
#6 UCLA (10-1)
#7 USC (13-0)
#8 Gonzaga (12-2)
#9 Kansas (12-2)
#10 Houston (14-2)
#11 Villanova (11-4)
#12 Purdue (13-2)
#13 Iowa St (13-2)
#14 Wisconsin (12-2)
#15 Xavier (12-2)
#16 Duke (12-2)
#17 Loyola-Chicago (10-2)
#18 Alabama (11-4)
#19 Seton Hall (10-3)
#20 Tennessee (10-4)
#21 Providence (14-2)
#22 Connecticut (10-4)
#23 Illinois (11-3)
#24 Ohio St (9-3)
#25 Texas Tech (11-3)

Big Ten
1. #5 Michigan St (13-2, 4-0)
2. #12 Purdue (13-2, 2-2)
3. #14 Wisconsin (12-2, 3-1)
4. #23 Illinois (11-3, 4-0)
5. #24 Ohio St (9-3, 3-1)
6. #36 Minnesota (10-2, 1-2)
7. #38 Iowa (11-4, 1-3)
8. #39 Indiana (11-3, 2-2)
9. #67 Michigan (7-6, 1-2)
10. #69 Penn St (7-6, 2-3)
11. #73 Northwestern (7-4, 1-2)
12. #99 Maryland (8-6, 0-3)
13. #102 Rutgers (9-5, 3-1)
14. #193 Nebraska (6-10, 0-5)

Rutgers OOC Opponents
#333 Lehigh (3-11)
#274 Merrimack (7-8)
#254 NJIT (7-5)
#92 DePaul (9-5)
#328 Lafayette (2-9)
#173 Massachusetts (7-7)
#63 Clemson (10-5)
#19 Seton Hall (10-3)
#354 Maine (0-10)
#330 Central Conn (4-12)

Other Rutgers Computer Rankings
Torvik #95
Massey #71
Kenpom #86

Projected Records
Torvik 14-16 (8-12)
Massey 15-15 (9-11)

Probability of Making NCAA Tournament (according to Barttorvik model)
0.3%

 

[RUtrumpet92_rivals498139]

If ifs and buts were candy and nuts, we'd all have a merry Christmas. But I wonder what our ranking would be if we had squeaked out the Lafayette game. That loss just makes me ill.

 

[fluoxetine]

01/11/2022

Top 25
#1 Baylor (15-1)
#2 Auburn (15-1)
#3 LSU (14-1)
#4 Arizona (12-1)
#5 Gonzaga (12-2)
#6 UCLA (10-1)
#7 Kansas (13-2)
#8 Michigan St (13-2)
#9 Houston (14-2)
#10 Villanova (11-4)
#11 Purdue (13-2)
#12 Texas Tech (12-3)
#13 Wisconsin (13-2)
#14 Iowa St (13-3)
#15 Xavier (12-2)
#16 Tennessee (11-4)
#17 USC (13-1)
#18 Duke (12-2)
#19 Seton Hall (10-3)
#20 Providence (14-2)
#21 Alabama (11-5)
#22 Ohio St (10-3)
#23 Kentucky (13-3)
#24 Loyola-Chicago (11-2)
#25 Connecticut (10-4)

Big Ten
1. #8 Michigan St (13-2, 4-0)
2. #11 Purdue (13-2, 2-2)
3. #13 Wisconsin (13-2, 4-1)
4. #22 Ohio St (10-3, 4-1)
5. #27 Illinois (12-3, 5-0)
6. #31 Indiana (12-3, 3-2)
7. #39 Iowa (11-4, 1-3)
8. #46 Minnesota (10-3, 1-3)
9. #61 Penn St (8-6, 3-3)
10. #69 Michigan (7-6, 1-2)
11. #80 Northwestern (7-5, 1-3)
12. #101 Maryland (8-7, 0-4)
13. #115 Rutgers (9-6, 3-2)
14. #193 Nebraska (6-11, 0-6)

Rutgers OOC Opponents
#331 Lehigh (4-11)
#278 Merrimack (7-8)
#255 NJIT (7-5)
#96 DePaul (9-6)
#327 Lafayette (2-10)
#174 Massachusetts (7-8)
#65 Clemson (10-5)
#19 Seton Hall (10-3)
#355 Maine (0-10)
#333 Central Conn (4-12)

Other Rutgers Computer Rankings
Torvik #108
Massey #80
Kenpom #98

Projected Records
Torvik 14-16 (8-12)
Massey 14-16 (8-12)

Probability of Making NCAA Tournament (according to Barttorvik model)
0.2%

 

[bac2therac]

quite honestly that 14-16/8-12 prediction is probably where we are headed....if we take our scarlet colored glasses off, there will be some great wins that give us hope and then crushing losses like last night

the reality is there is LITTLE margin for error given our out of conference performance and then brutal slate to end the year.

I think this team at minimum needs to be 7-4 in league play going into that stretch. Can they do that, games like last night and seeing how Nebby played vs Illinois gives me concern.

 

[fluoxetine]

01/15/2022

Top 25
#1 Auburn (16-1)
#2 Baylor (15-2)
#3 Arizona (14-1)
#4 Gonzaga (14-2)
#5 LSU (15-2)
#6 Kansas (14-2)
#7 Wisconsin (14-2)
#8 Purdue (14-2)
#9 Houston (15-2)
#10 Villanova (12-4)
#11 Duke (14-2)
#12 Iowa St (14-3)
#13 Kentucky (14-3)
#14 Michigan St (14-3)
#15 UCLA (11-2)
#16 Xavier (13-3)
#17 Texas Tech (13-4)
#18 Illinois (13-3)
#19 Providence (14-2)
#20 Colorado St (12-1)
#21 Connecticut (11-4)
#22 Loyola-Chicago (12-2)
#23 Ohio St (10-4)
#24 Alabama (11-6)
#25 Tennessee (11-5)

Big Ten
1. #7 Wisconsin (14-2, 5-1)
2. #8 Purdue (14-2, 3-2)
3. #14 Michigan St (14-3, 5-1)
4. #18 Illinois (13-3, 6-0)
5. #23 Ohio St (10-4, 4-2)
6. #31 Iowa (12-4, 2-3)
7. #43 Indiana (12-4, 3-3)
8. #46 Minnesota (10-4, 1-4)
9. #67 Penn St (8-6, 3-3)
10. #75 Northwestern (8-6, 2-4)
11. #81 Michigan (7-7, 1-3)
12. #98 Maryland (9-8, 1-5)
13. #106 Rutgers (10-6, 4-2)
14. #181 Nebraska (6-12, 0-7)

Rutgers OOC Opponents
#322 Lehigh (5-11)
#295 Merrimack (7-9)
#291 NJIT (7-7)
#79 DePaul (10-6)
#334 Lafayette (2-11)
#182 Massachusetts (7-9)
#91 Clemson (10-7)
#32 Seton Hall (10-5)
#356 Maine (0-10)
#339 Central Conn (4-13)

Other Rutgers Computer Rankings
Torvik #103
Massey #69
Kenpom #91

Projected Records
Torvik 14-16 (8-12)
Massey 15-15 (9-11)

Probability of Making NCAA Tournament (according to Barttorvik model)
0.2%

 

[bac2therac]

Numbers lagging much like they did with Michigan State last year

Obviously the sos is an issue along the Lafayette loss. But last 9 games will provide opportunities

 

[RUtrumpet92_rivals498139]

I'm not saying we definitely win the rematch but Maryland being ahead of us based on overall results when we are 4-2 in conference and they are 1-5, while we just beat them at their place, just looks wrong.

 

[fluoxetine]

I'm not saying we definitely win the rematch but Maryland being ahead of us based on overall results when we are 4-2 in conference and they are 1-5, while we just beat them at their place, just looks wrong.

If you restrict it to recent results I'm sure we'd be ahead of them. The Lafayette game is like a massive weight tied to our ankles in these things.

 

[RUtrumpet92_rivals498139]

If you restrict it to recent results I'm sure we'd be ahead of them. The Lafayette game is like a massive weight tied to our ankles in these things.

That one stinking game... man... just gotta bring that intensity every night from here out.

 

[jordkap]

That one stinking game... man... just gotta bring that intensity every night from here out.

They are that bad too, they can’t beat anyone.

 

[Mr_Twister]

Maybe like the football team, we luck out on some kind of COVID-basis. Chosen teams are unable to compete and we enter through the back door.

 

[cubuffsdoug_rivals]

If you restrict it to recent results I'm sure we'd be ahead of them. The Lafayette game is like a massive weight tied to our ankles in these things.

But doesn't Purdue act as a counterweight?

 

[Zak57]

If you restrict it to recent results I'm sure we'd be ahead of them. The Lafayette game is like a massive weight tied to our ankles in these things.

More like an anchor.

 

[fluoxetine]

But doesn't Purdue act as a counterweight?

Well it certainly helps. We've been rising:

Preseason / #35
vs Lehigh / W 73-70 OT / #41
vs Merrimack / W 48-35 / #48
vs NJIT / W 75-61 / #54
at DePaul / L 70-73 / #82
vs Lafayette / L 51-53 / #210
at Massachusetts / L 83-85 / #206
vs Clemson / W 74-64 / #151
at Illinois / L 51-86 / #188
vs Purdue / W 70-68 / #141
at Seton Hall / L 63-77 / #143
vs Maine / W 80-64 / #145
vs Central Connecticut / W 79-48 / #140
vs Michigan / W 75-67 / #118
vs Nebraska / W 93-65 / #102
at Penn St. / L 49-66 / #115
at Maryland / W 70-59 / #106

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

82 to 210 sheesh. Talk about your nose dives.

Somehow Lafayette scraped together their 4th win today. Maybe they can go on a streak and climb their way out of the 300s.

 

[Scarlet Blind_rivals]

I was checking on Bracketologists this morning for today's NET update, and noticed, Jan16, 13-4 Villanova 82-42 win over 9-7(2 non D1 wins) Butler, 131 to 146, jumped them from 6 to 3(Line was Nova -15, +25) above 15-2 Houston, 16-1 Auburn, and 15-2 Baylor.

BUT, Jan 12, Villanova's 64-60 win @ 13-3 #18 Xavier, kept them at 6(Line Nova +2, +6). Yes, I know statistically why but why would a 40 pt win at home over a .500 team matters more than 4 pt road, 2nd win over Xavier. Are we living in the before times of college football, running up the scores on cupcakes to score brownie points for the computers instead of voters in a poll?

Is that what Rutgers needs to do is just pound someone by 30-40 home or road to score brownie points in the bubble/NET discussion, which Pike is too nice of a coach to do.

 

[fluoxetine]

I was checking on Bracketologists this morning for today's NET update, and noticed, Jan16, 13-4 Villanova 82-42 win over 9-7(2 non D1 wins) Butler, 131 to 146, jumped them from 6 to 3(Line was Nova -15, +25) above 15-2 Houston, 16-1 Auburn, and 15-2 Baylor.

BUT, Jan 12, Villanova's 64-60 win @ 13-3 #18 Xavier, kept them at 6(Line Nova +2, +6). Yes, I know statistically why but why would a 40 pt win at home over a .500 team matters more than 4 pt road, 2nd win over Xavier. Are we living in the before times of college football, running up the scores on cupcakes to score brownie points for the computers instead of voters in a poll?

Is that what Rutgers needs to do is just pound someone by 30-40 home or road to score brownie points in the bubble/NET discussion, which Pike is too nice of a coach to do.

Sometimes teams will move around because of the teams they played, or the teams around them, etc.

 

[Scarlet Blind_rivals]

I just noticed the added another factor to their Ken Pom, BPI, Sagarin and KPI, This year they added Torvik to the NET. That is what's different, saw some weird jumps in 21-22 compared to the capped wins/losses in 2019-20 and non-capped wins/losses in 20-21. Instead of 25% for 4, now 20% for 5.

 

[fluoxetine]

I'm a little confused what you mean here. Do you mean on the team sheet? Those are not included in the NET itself.

 

[bac2therac]

Correct, the NET is not made up of those other metrics. The team sheet does put those individuals rankings from those ranking systems but it is very unclear if they are even looked at much at all in the selection process.

 

[goru7]

The trend is up as you say but huge opportunity tonight. Iowa at 31 and we at 106. Home game so not possible to go up 30 like Arkansas did by beating LSU this weekend on the road and going from 82 to 54 but if we win by 10 or more could jump 10-15 spots.

 

[fluoxetine]

The trend is up as you say but huge opportunity tonight. Iowa at 31 and we at 106. Home game so not possible to go up 30 like Arkansas did by beating LSU this weekend on the road and going from 82 to 54 but if we win by 10 or more could jump 10-15 spots.

Game is tomorrow in case you forgot.

 

[goru7]

Game is tomorrow in case you forgot.

Sorry. Getting too excited.

 

[fluoxetine]

01/19/2022

Top 25
#1 Auburn (17-1)
#2 Baylor (16-2)
#3 Arizona (14-1)
#4 Gonzaga (14-2)
#5 Kansas (15-2)
#6 Purdue (15-2)
#7 LSU (15-3)
#8 Wisconsin (15-2)
#9 Houston (16-2)
#10 Kentucky (15-3)
#11 Villanova (13-5)
#12 Texas Tech (14-4)
#13 UCLA (11-2)
#14 Michigan St (14-3)
#15 Xavier (14-3)
#16 Iowa St (14-4)
#17 Duke (14-3)
#18 Providence (14-2)
#19 Alabama (12-6)
#20 Illinois (13-4)
#21 Connecticut (12-4)
#22 Colorado St (13-1)
#23 Tennessee (12-5)
#24 Ohio St (12-4)
#25 Loyola-Chicago (13-2)

Big Ten
1. #6 Purdue (15-2, 4-2)
2. #8 Wisconsin (15-2, 6-1)
3. #14 Michigan St (14-3, 5-1)
4. #20 Illinois (13-4, 6-1)
5. #24 Ohio St (12-4, 5-2)
6. #37 Iowa (13-5, 3-4)
7. #39 Indiana (13-4, 4-3)
8. #59 Minnesota (10-5, 1-5)
9. #70 Penn St (8-7, 3-4)
10. #71 Michigan (8-7, 2-3)
11. #80 Northwestern (8-7, 2-5)
12. #92 Rutgers (11-6, 5-2)
13. #104 Maryland (9-9, 1-6)
14. #176 Nebraska (6-13, 0-8)

Rutgers OOC Opponents
#312 Lehigh (6-12)
#300 Merrimack (7-10)
#291 NJIT (7-8)
#82 DePaul (10-7)
#321 Lafayette (3-11)
#181 Massachusetts (7-9)
#97 Clemson (10-8)
#30 Seton Hall (10-5)
#356 Maine (0-12)
#340 Central Conn (4-14)

Other Rutgers Computer Rankings
Torvik #97
Massey #62
Kenpom #90

Projected Records
Torvik 15-15 (9-11)
Massey 16-14 (10-10)

Probability of Making NCAA Tournament (according to Barttorvik model)
0.3%

 

[fluoxetine]

01/22/2022

Top 25
#1 Auburn (18-1)
#2 Baylor (17-2)
#3 Arizona (15-1)
#4 Gonzaga (15-2)
#5 Kansas (16-2)
#6 Houston (17-2)
#7 Texas Tech (15-4)
#8 LSU (15-4)
#9 Purdue (15-3)
#10 Michigan St (15-3)
#11 Wisconsin (15-3)
#12 UCLA (13-2)
#13 Villanova (14-5)
#14 Duke (15-3)
#15 Kentucky (15-4)
#16 Xavier (14-3)
#17 Tennessee (13-5)
#18 Connecticut (13-4)
#19 Alabama (13-6)
#20 Colorado St (14-1)
#21 Providence (15-2)
#22 Ohio St (12-4)
#23 Iowa St (14-5)
#24 USC (16-2)
#25 Illinois (13-5)

Big Ten
1. #9 Purdue (15-3, 4-3)
2. #10 Michigan St (15-3, 6-1)
3. #11 Wisconsin (15-3, 6-2)
4. #22 Ohio St (12-4, 5-2)
5. #25 Illinois (13-5, 6-2)
6. #32 Indiana (14-4, 5-3)
7. #33 Iowa (14-5, 4-4)
8. #55 Minnesota (11-5, 2-5)
9. #65 Michigan (8-7, 2-3)
10. #74 Penn St (8-8, 3-5)
11. #76 Northwestern (8-7, 2-5)
12. #90 Maryland (10-9, 2-6)
13. #95 Rutgers (11-7, 5-3)
14. #173 Nebraska (6-13, 0-8)

Rutgers OOC Opponents
#321 Lehigh (6-13)
#309 Merrimack (7-11)
#307 NJIT (7-9)
#89 DePaul (10-8)
#324 Lafayette (3-11)
#168 Massachusetts (8-9)
#91 Clemson (11-8)
#26 Seton Hall (11-5)
#356 Maine (0-13)
#345 Central Conn (4-15)

Other Rutgers Computer Rankings
Torvik #98
Massey #65
Kenpom #91
Teamrankings #86

Projected Records
Torvik 15-15 (9-11)
Massey 15-15 (9-11)
Teamrankings 16-15 (9-11) [includes Rider]

Probability of Making NCAA Tournament
Torvik 0.3%
Teamrankings 3.3%

 

[fluoxetine]

01/25/2022

Top 25
#1 Baylor (18-2)
#2 Gonzaga (15-2)
#3 Auburn (19-1)
#4 Kansas (17-2)
#5 Arizona (16-2)
#6 UCLA (14-2)
#7 Houston (17-2)
#8 Purdue (16-3)
#9 Villanova (15-5)
#10 Texas Tech (15-5)
#11 Wisconsin (15-3)
#12 LSU (15-4)
#13 Kentucky (16-4)
#14 Michigan St (15-4)
#15 Duke (16-3)
#16 Colorado St (15-1)
#17 Tennessee (13-5)
#18 Connecticut (14-4)
#19 Providence (16-2)
#20 Xavier (14-4)
#21 Iowa St (14-5)
#22 Illinois (14-5)
#23 USC (17-2)
#24 Ohio St (12-4)
#25 Texas (15-5)

Big Ten
1. #8 Purdue (16-3, 5-3)
2. #11 Wisconsin (15-3, 6-2)
3. #14 Michigan St (15-4, 6-2)
4. #22 Illinois (14-5, 7-2)
5. #24 Ohio St (12-4, 5-2)
6. #30 Iowa (14-5, 4-4)
7. #42 Indiana (14-5, 5-4)
8. #56 Minnesota (11-5, 2-5)
9. #58 Michigan (9-7, 3-3)
10. #76 Penn St (8-8, 3-5)
11. #77 Northwestern (8-8, 2-6)
12. #83 Maryland (11-9, 3-6)
13. #102 Rutgers (11-8, 5-4)
14. #175 Nebraska (6-13, 0-8)

Rutgers OOC Opponents
#322 Lehigh (6-13)
#312 Merrimack (7-12)
#306 NJIT (7-9)
#95 DePaul (10-9)
#316 Lafayette (4-11)
#181 Massachusetts (8-10)
#89 Clemson (11-9)
#39 Seton Hall (11-6)
#354 Maine (1-13)
#347 Central Conn (4-16)

Other Rutgers Computer Rankings
Torvik #107
Massey #75
Kenpom #96
Teamrankings #90

Projected Records
Torvik 14-16 (8-12)
Massey 15-15 (9-11)
Teamrankings 15-16 (8-12) [includes Rider]

Probability of Making NCAA Tournament
Torvik 0.2%
Teamrankings 1.4%

 

[fluoxetine]

01/29/2022

Top 25
#1 Auburn (20-1)
#2 Gonzaga (17-2)
#3 Baylor (18-3)
#4 Arizona (17-2)
#5 UCLA (16-2)
#6 Kansas (17-3)
#7 Purdue (17-3)
#8 Houston (18-2)
#9 Kentucky (17-4)
#10 Texas Tech (16-5)
#11 Wisconsin (16-3)
#12 Villanova (16-5)
#13 Michigan St (16-4)
#14 Duke (17-3)
#15 LSU (16-5)
#16 Providence (17-2)
#17 Connecticut (15-4)
#18 Tennessee (14-6)
#19 Xavier (15-5)
#20 Alabama (14-7)
#21 Iowa St (16-5)
#22 Ohio St (13-4)
#23 Illinois (15-5)
#24 Texas (16-5)
#25 Marquette (15-6)

Big Ten
1. #7 Purdue (17-3, 6-3)
2. #11 Wisconsin (16-3, 7-2)
3. #13 Michigan St (16-4, 7-2)
4. #22 Ohio St (13-4, 6-2)
5. #23 Illinois (15-5, 8-2)
6. #29 Indiana (16-5, 7-4)
7. #30 Iowa (14-6, 4-5)
8. #58 Michigan (10-8, 4-4)
9. #61 Minnesota (11-6, 2-6)
10. #83 Penn St (8-9, 3-6)
11. #86 Northwestern (8-10, 2-8)
12. #87 Maryland (11-10, 3-7)
13. #105 Rutgers (12-8, 6-4)
14. #188 Nebraska (6-15, 0-10)

Rutgers OOC Opponents
#317 Lehigh (7-14)
#313 Merrimack (7-13)
#316 NJIT (7-11)
#97 DePaul (10-10)
#327 Lafayette (4-13)
#174 Massachusetts (9-10)
#92 Clemson (11-9)
#39 Seton Hall (11-7)
#355 Maine (1-15)
#343 Central Conn (5-16)

Other Rutgers Computer Rankings
Torvik #109
Massey #80
Kenpom #101
Teamrankings #90

Projected Records
Torvik 14-16 (8-12)
Massey 15-15 (9-11)
Teamrankings 16-15 (9-11) [includes Rider]

Probability of Making NCAA Tournament
Torvik 0.1%
Teamrankings 1.5%

 

[fluoxetine]

02/01/2022

Top 25
#1 Auburn (21-1)
#2 Gonzaga (17-2)
#3 Baylor (19-3)
#4 Arizona (17-2)
#5 UCLA (16-2)
#6 Kansas (18-3)
#7 Purdue (18-3)
#8 Kentucky (17-4)
#9 Houston (18-2)
#10 Texas Tech (17-5)
#11 Wisconsin (17-3)
#12 Villanova (16-5)
#13 Duke (18-3)
#14 Michigan St (17-4)
#15 Providence (19-2)
#16 Tennessee (15-6)
#17 LSU (16-6)
#18 Xavier (15-5)
#19 Connecticut (15-5)
#20 Alabama (14-8)
#21 Ohio St (13-5)
#22 Iowa St (16-6)
#23 Illinois (15-5)
#24 Marquette (15-7)
#25 Texas (16-6)

Big Ten
1. #7 Purdue (18-3, 7-3)
2. #11 Wisconsin (17-3, 8-2)
3. #14 Michigan St (17-4, 8-2)
4. #21 Ohio St (13-5, 6-3)
5. #23 Illinois (15-5, 8-2)
6. #29 Indiana (16-5, 7-4)
7. #37 Iowa (14-7, 4-6)
8. #58 Michigan (11-8, 5-4)
9. #62 Minnesota (11-7, 2-7)
10. #75 Penn St (9-9, 4-6)
11. #80 Northwestern (9-10, 3-8)
12. #90 Maryland (11-11, 3-8)
13. #107 Rutgers (12-9, 6-5)
14. #185 Nebraska (6-16, 0-11)

Rutgers OOC Opponents
#318 Lehigh (7-14)
#317 Merrimack (7-13)
#319 NJIT (7-11)
#101 DePaul (10-10)
#331 Lafayette (4-14)
#179 Massachusetts (9-11)
#91 Clemson (11-9)
#38 Seton Hall (12-7)
#355 Maine (1-16)
#344 Central Conn (5-17)

Other Rutgers Computer Rankings
Torvik #111
Massey #78
Kenpom #103
Teamrankings #90

Projected Records
Torvik 14-16 (8-12)
Massey 15-15 (9-11)
Teamrankings 15-16 (8-12) [includes Rider]

Probability of Making NCAA Tournament
Torvik 0.1%
Teamrankings 0.9%

 

[fluoxetine]

02/05/2022

Top 25
#1 Gonzaga (19-2)
#2 Auburn (22-1)
#3 Arizona (19-2)
#4 Kansas (19-3)
#5 Baylor (19-4)
#6 Purdue (20-3)
#7 Kentucky (19-4)
#8 Texas Tech (18-5)
#9 Duke (19-3)
#10 Houston (19-2)
#11 UCLA (16-4)
#12 Villanova (17-6)
#13 Providence (19-2)
#14 Wisconsin (18-4)
#15 Illinois (17-5)
#16 Tennessee (16-6)
#17 Michigan St (17-5)
#18 Texas (17-6)
#19 Marquette (16-7)
#20 Ohio St (13-5)
#21 LSU (16-7)
#22 Xavier (16-6)
#23 Connecticut (15-6)
#24 Alabama (14-9)
#25 St Mary's CA (18-4)

Big Ten
1. #6 Purdue (20-3, 9-3)
2. #14 Wisconsin (18-4, 9-3)
3. #15 Illinois (17-5, 10-2)
4. #17 Michigan St (17-5, 8-3)
5. #20 Ohio St (13-5, 6-3)
6. #33 Indiana (16-6, 7-5)
7. #36 Iowa (14-7, 4-6)
8. #58 Michigan (11-9, 5-5)
9. #66 Minnesota (11-8, 2-8)
10. #75 Northwestern (10-10, 4-8)
11. #77 Penn St (9-10, 4-7)
12. #86 Maryland (11-11, 3-8)
13. #92 Rutgers (13-9, 7-5)
14. #184 Nebraska (6-17, 0-12)

Rutgers OOC Opponents
#315 Lehigh (8-15)
#319 Merrimack (8-14)
#303 NJIT (8-12)
#85 DePaul (11-10)
#321 Lafayette (6-14)
#161 Massachusetts (10-11)
#95 Clemson (12-10)
#32 Seton Hall (13-7)
#355 Maine (1-18)
#346 Central Conn (6-18)

Other Rutgers Computer Rankings
Torvik #98
Massey #68
Kenpom #86
Teamrankings #78
My Predictive Rating #86

Projected Records
Torvik 15-15 (9-11)
Massey 16-14 (10-10)
Teamrankings 16-15 (9-11) [includes Rider]
Me 16-14 (10-10)

Probability of Making NCAA Tournament
Torvik 0.3%
Teamrankings 4.5%

 

[ScarletDave]

02/05/2022

Probability of Making NCAA Tournament
Torvik 0.3%

Wow! Our odds tripled !

 

[fluoxetine]

It is clear to me that Torvik's model is over certain (both on teams that will make it and teams that won't) because it simulates the season as if each team's ability is an exactly known quantity instead of a probability distribution.

 

[fluoxetine]

02/09/2022

Top 25
#1 Gonzaga (19-2)
#2 Arizona (20-2)
#3 Auburn (22-2)
#4 Purdue (21-3)
#5 Kansas (19-4)
#6 Baylor (20-4)
#7 Kentucky (20-4)
#8 UCLA (17-4)
#9 Houston (20-3)
#10 Villanova (18-6)
#11 Texas Tech (18-6)
#12 Providence (20-2)
#13 Wisconsin (19-4)
#14 Duke (19-4)
#15 Tennessee (17-6)
#16 Illinois (17-6)
#17 Texas (18-6)
#18 Connecticut (16-6)
#19 LSU (17-7)
#20 Michigan St (17-6)
#21 Marquette (16-8)
#22 Wyoming (19-3)
#23 Alabama (15-9)
#24 Ohio St (14-6)
#25 Arkansas (19-5)

Big Ten
1. #4 Purdue (21-3, 10-3)
2. #13 Wisconsin (19-4, 10-3)
3. #16 Illinois (17-6, 10-3)
4. #20 Michigan St (17-6, 8-4)
5. #24 Ohio St (14-6, 7-4)
6. #32 Iowa (15-7, 5-6)
7. #41 Indiana (16-7, 7-6)
8. #53 Michigan (12-9, 6-5)
9. #66 Northwestern (11-10, 5-8)
10. #79 Rutgers (14-9, 8-5)
11. #82 Penn St (9-11, 4-8)
12. #87 Minnesota (11-10, 2-10)
13. #91 Maryland (11-12, 3-9)
14. #168 Nebraska (7-17, 1-12)

Rutgers OOC Opponents
#315 Lehigh (8-16)
#318 Merrimack (8-14)
#299 NJIT (9-12)
#85 DePaul (12-10)
#320 Lafayette (6-15)
#178 Massachusetts (10-12)
#97 Clemson (12-11)
#27 Seton Hall (14-7)
#355 Maine (2-18)
#346 Central Conn (6-18)

Other Rutgers Computer Rankings
Torvik #96
Massey #61
Kenpom #84
Teamrankings #75
My Predictive Rating #83

Projected Records
Torvik 16-14 (10-10)
Massey 16-14 (10-10)
Teamrankings 17-14 (10-10) [includes Rider]
Me 16-14 (10-10)

Probability of Making NCAA Tournament
Torvik 0.5%
Teamrankings 10.3%

 

[RUfromNJ]

Continue to play like this and dare them to keep us out

 

[fluoxetine]

02/12/2022

Top 25
#1 Gonzaga (21-2)
#2 Arizona (22-2)
#3 Auburn (23-2)
#4 Baylor (21-4)
#5 Kansas (20-4)
#6 Kentucky (21-4)
#7 Purdue (21-4)
#8 Texas Tech (19-6)
#9 Villanova (19-6)
#10 UCLA (17-5)
#11 Duke (21-4)
#12 Providence (21-2)
#13 Tennessee (18-6)
#14 Houston (20-4)
#15 Illinois (17-6)
#16 Wisconsin (19-5)
#17 Texas (18-7)
#18 Michigan St (18-6)
#19 LSU (18-7)
#20 Alabama (16-9)
#21 Ohio St (15-6)
#22 Wyoming (20-3)
#23 Connecticut (16-7)
#24 Xavier (17-7)
#25 USC (21-4)

Big Ten
1. #7 Purdue (21-4, 10-4)
2. #15 Illinois (17-6, 10-3)
3. #16 Wisconsin (19-5, 10-4)
4. #18 Michigan St (18-6, 9-4)
5. #21 Ohio St (15-6, 8-4)
6. #31 Iowa (16-7, 6-6)
7. #41 Indiana (16-8, 7-7)
8. #42 Michigan (13-10, 7-6)
9. #65 Northwestern (11-10, 5-8)
10. #67 Rutgers (15-9, 9-5)
11. #80 Minnesota (12-10, 3-10)
12. #90 Penn St (9-12, 4-9)
13. #93 Maryland (11-13, 3-10)
14. #161 Nebraska (7-17, 1-12)

Rutgers OOC Opponents
#321 Lehigh (8-17)
#307 Merrimack (9-15)
#309 NJIT (9-13)
#86 DePaul (12-11)
#318 Lafayette (7-15)
#173 Massachusetts (11-12)
#101 Clemson (12-13)
#30 Seton Hall (14-8)
#355 Maine (2-18)
#345 Central Conn (7-19)

Other Rutgers Computer Rankings
Torvik #85
Massey #55
Kenpom #78
Teamrankings #67
My Predictive Rating #68

Projected Records
Torvik 17-13 (11-9)
Massey 17-13 (11-9)
Teamrankings 18-13 (11-9) [includes Rider]
Me 17-13 (11-9)

Probability of Making NCAA Tournament
Torvik 1.3%
Teamrankings 21.1%

 

[Zak57]

Why is Torvik still only at 1.3%?

 

[fluoxetine]

Why is Torvik still only at 1.3%?

(This is speculation but I’m pretty confident in it.)

Torvik doesn’t really run his simulations properly because he doesn’t account for the uncertainty in a team’s rating. So he has us at #85 and assumes that’s correct and if it is we have a very small chance of doing what we need to do to get in. Really he needs to draw the team ratings from a probability distribution before each simulation, which would up the variance. As a result, his projections are too confident regarding both “safe” teams and “out” teams.