Because of the ACC's GoR until 2036 and the lack of markets/value of Big 12 remaining teams, the only near-term expansion possibility is to take 6 to 9 teams from the Pac-12 due to their GoR and tv deal expiring (and coincidentally main broadcast partner being with Fox just like the Big Ten).
The most likely teams are USC, UCLA, UCB, Stanford, Washington, Oregon, Arizona, Colorado, and Utah. The "State" teams all overlap markets and are non-AAU so those 3 would be left out. It's possible as well that Utah also gets left out due to how much smaller its market/brand are than the other 8 (state is half the size and it's new on the Power 5 scene).
I'd envision the first 8 of those Pac-12 teams in the Big Ten bringing roughly $60-80 million per team to the league after the TV deals are revamped; we'd basically match the 16 team SEC in terms of TV money per team with those 8 in a 22 team Big Ten.
The way scheduling would work is basically 2 possibilities: 1) Lock 4-6 permanent games per team and rotate the rest or 2) to mitigate travel make 6 games region locked (i.e. 3 permanent locked games and 3 that rotate among other nearby teams), then at most you may have 1 or 2 far away flights per team.
So like USC would be locked with the other 3 Cali teams and then play 3 more games among the other Pac-8 and then 3 games against current Big Ten. Just tossing out an example.
The reason the Pac-12 teams would consider this is: the Pac-12 Networks have been a total disaster. Still under 20 million subscribers for that network and it gives less than $3 million per team. Even with such a disastrous network situation, the Pac-12 gives $35 million per team in distributions and we all know most of that value is from the top teams USC/UCLA/UCB/Washington/Oregon; those 5 teams are probably worth $80 million per team if combined with the Big Ten.
Also, Fox would only have to give big money to the Big Ten, basically can cancel their Pac-12 deal and Big 12 deal or reduce them down to $10 million per leftover team if those 2 leftovers combine.
The timing lines up perfectly if the decision makers at USC/UCLA see no future for the Pac-12 to be able to maintain its own network and want to consider a big change by dragging 6 others to the Big Ten.
The most likely teams are USC, UCLA, UCB, Stanford, Washington, Oregon, Arizona, Colorado, and Utah. The "State" teams all overlap markets and are non-AAU so those 3 would be left out. It's possible as well that Utah also gets left out due to how much smaller its market/brand are than the other 8 (state is half the size and it's new on the Power 5 scene).
I'd envision the first 8 of those Pac-12 teams in the Big Ten bringing roughly $60-80 million per team to the league after the TV deals are revamped; we'd basically match the 16 team SEC in terms of TV money per team with those 8 in a 22 team Big Ten.
The way scheduling would work is basically 2 possibilities: 1) Lock 4-6 permanent games per team and rotate the rest or 2) to mitigate travel make 6 games region locked (i.e. 3 permanent locked games and 3 that rotate among other nearby teams), then at most you may have 1 or 2 far away flights per team.
So like USC would be locked with the other 3 Cali teams and then play 3 more games among the other Pac-8 and then 3 games against current Big Ten. Just tossing out an example.
The reason the Pac-12 teams would consider this is: the Pac-12 Networks have been a total disaster. Still under 20 million subscribers for that network and it gives less than $3 million per team. Even with such a disastrous network situation, the Pac-12 gives $35 million per team in distributions and we all know most of that value is from the top teams USC/UCLA/UCB/Washington/Oregon; those 5 teams are probably worth $80 million per team if combined with the Big Ten.
Also, Fox would only have to give big money to the Big Ten, basically can cancel their Pac-12 deal and Big 12 deal or reduce them down to $10 million per leftover team if those 2 leftovers combine.
The timing lines up perfectly if the decision makers at USC/UCLA see no future for the Pac-12 to be able to maintain its own network and want to consider a big change by dragging 6 others to the Big Ten.
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