Is that was this is ? I know there have been mentions of that on this board by some prolific posters . It certainly looks like it is a possibility . But we still should have a stud in Harper coming back and if Cliff lives up to the hype we should be fine next year . But it’s a fair question at this point. I hope that’s not the case . It was finally nice to not be lousy after 29 and 30 years and field ncaa tournament caliber teams that we could be proud of.
A Northwestern type rebuild ?
- Thread starter Plum Street
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You meant opinionated and fact ignorant by prolific right?
You realize NW was one and done, don't you? Huge difference from what Pike has accomplished with 2 straight years of tourney level teams (you know we were in in 2020). It's also mind boggling to me how harsh people have been on Pike with regard to the portal. We're nowhere near done - people should wait until transfer season is over before freaking out.
Yes , one year . 1-1 in tournament as well . I am not hard on pike , I acknowledged we may be ok next year . But it’s a game of inches between being relevant (making the tournament) or not in this sport . We needed overtime wins on the last day of the season both of the last two years to be ncaa tournament caliber
Let’s get one thing straight - no matter what happens next season it is nothing like what happened with NW.
In 2017-18, NW returned 4 players that played 30+ mpg along with every single player on their tourney roster except 1 who saw 13+ mpg on the tourney roster. The one kid they lost played 27 mpg and averaged around 6 points. By all counts, that team’s bust demonstrated that the prior team had overachieved and was a “fluke”. Last year - Pike proved just the opposite with a repeated season similar to the previous one.
We’re far from a blue blood that can simply “reload”. If we take a step back though, it’ll be fair to call it a “rebuild” year given we lost JY and MJ. If NW was legit that 2017-18 team should’ve been at least as good as the 2016-17 team. It was fluke success IMO.
In 2017-18, NW returned 4 players that played 30+ mpg along with every single player on their tourney roster except 1 who saw 13+ mpg on the tourney roster. The one kid they lost played 27 mpg and averaged around 6 points. By all counts, that team’s bust demonstrated that the prior team had overachieved and was a “fluke”. Last year - Pike proved just the opposite with a repeated season similar to the previous one.
We’re far from a blue blood that can simply “reload”. If we take a step back though, it’ll be fair to call it a “rebuild” year given we lost JY and MJ. If NW was legit that 2017-18 team should’ve been at least as good as the 2016-17 team. It was fluke success IMO.
It seems you generally have a negative, glass is half empty p.o.v.
We were very solid the last 2 years spending a good chunk of the last season ranked. If you want to focus on having to win games at the end of the season to be successful, that's fine.
I love how you twisted it that I am negative . I am ecstatic at the job pike has done here . I am not negative . I said we should be fine next year, but it’s a fair question how solid is this rebuild
Pike basically had the same roster for those 2 tourney teams...not the case next year and I do to think it’s fair to consider this natural attrition.
I am hopeful we’ll be able to maintain the same level of competitiveness and am taking a wait and see approach - but right now am not optimistic.
The portal will be a blessing and curse and while some point to the fact there are enough players to fill our needs - the sheer volume is overwhelming and I don’t envy the staff trying to ID portal players and basically trying to recruit everyone at the same time.
Filling vacancies is easy based on the number of players in the portal.getting Players that are difference makers is harder to attract because of the competition.
It’s a legit unknown for sure but it’s not comparable to NW. That comparison would’ve been valid if RU bombed this past season with the same players after a successful season. Again, NW returned basically their whole team in 2017-18 and busted. Rutgers didn’t “bust” with its full roster returning.
WVU remains the clearest comparison out there to model off of - given the defensive focus similarities. Note that when they lost their JY-like stars (Jevon Carter and Daxter Miles) they did take a step down the following year and missed the tourney. Then they brought in the McBride kid the following year and bounced back. By the way - Jalen Miller’s profile is awfully similar to McBride’s coming out of high school...
EvanMiya CBB Analytics site has rankings on player's BPR, Bayesian Performance Rating, an ultimate measure of importance when a player is on the floor. It happens to start as of Pikiell's first year in 2016-17.
Players w/ 500+ Possessions
2016-17 OBPR/DBPR= TBPR (+/-) -52 (2163/2215)
1. M. Williams 24.6/21.4= 46.0 (+4) 2. E. Omoruyi -3.8/26.8= 23.0 (+26)
3. C. Sa -5.2/18.2= 13.0 (+13) 4. J. Laurant -8.5/17.4= 9.1 (-20)
5. D. Freeman -0.6/6.6= 6.0 (-83) 6. CJ. Gettys 0.8/2.0= 2.8 (-74)
7. N. Johnson -13.8/7.8= -5.4 (-89) 8. C. Sanders -32.8/6.2= -39.1 (-160)
2017-18 O/D= T(+/-) +12 (2216/2204)
1. D. Freeman -5.6/47.9= 42.3 (+30) 2. E. Omoruyi 8.1/18.2= 26.2 (-13)
3. C. Sa 0.6/24.1= 24.7 (-9) 4. M. Williams 1.4/22.0= 23.4 (+31)
5. G. Baker -7.3/30.3= 23.0 (-53) 6. M. Doucoure -22.1/30.6= 8.5 (-43)
7. C. Sanders -23.4/16.9= -6.5 (-99) 8. S. Doorson -6.5/-0.2= -6.7 (-123)
2018-19 O/D= T (+/-) -27 (2105/2032)
1. M. Johnson 35.2/19.1= 54.3 (+17) 2. E. Omoruyi 16.6/27.7= 44.3 (+0)
3. P. Kiss 7.5/17.1= 24.6 (+26) 4. R. Harper 6.1/14.4= 20.5 (-36)
5. C. McConnell 28.3/-8.0= 20.3 (-18) 6. G. Baker -6.7/20.8= 14.0 (-68)
7. I. Thiam -14.2/19.6= 5.4 (-21) 8. S. Doorson -12.9/17.0= 4.2 (-72)
9. M. Mathis -1.1/-12.8= -13.9 (-101) 10. S. Carter 10.7/36.9= -26.2 (-90)
BoxScore BPR- Myles, RHJ, SD, CM, Geo, EO, IT, MM, SC, PK
2019-20 O/D= T (+/-) +226 (2168/1942)
1. M. Johnson 37.8/50.4= 88.2 (+159) 2. R. Harper 32.4/40.1= 72.5 (+168)
3. M. Mathis 19.9/41.6= 61.5 (+100) 4. C. McConnell 1.8/39.8= 41.7 (+61)
5. A. Yeboah 3.1/35.1= 38.2 (+91) 6. G. Baker 12.9/19.1= 32.0 (+78)
7. J. Young -1.2/5.9= 4.7 (+40) 8. P. Mulcahy -3.4/8.1= 4.7 (+8)
9. S. Carter -15/0.5= -14.5 (-22)
There was some elite defense played in 2019-20 by 5 guys.
BoxScore BPR- Myles, RHJ, PM, AY, MM, CM, Geo, JY, SC
2020-21 O/D= T (+/-) +46 (1939/1893)
1. M. Johnson 34.4/45.7= 80.1 (+56) 2. P. Mulcahy 31.3/23.9= 55.2 (+66)
3. C. McConnell -10.7/57.5= 46.9 (+7) 4. R. Harper 22.1/17.0= 39.1 (+35)
5. G. Baker 19.4/17.2= 36.6 (-6) 6. C. Omoruyi -7.6/31.7= 24.1 (+18)
7. J. Young 15.0/-2.5= 12.5 (-19) 8. M. Mathis -7.8/3.7= 4.1 (-70)
BoxScore BPR- Myles, CM, Geo, PM, RHJ, Cliff, MM, JY
Limited possession players,
Douc(87/89) -44, Reiber(88/89) +5, Mag(79.82) -6, Palm(67/69) -7
Douc -0.5/-5.0, Reiber -23.0/17.0, Mag -3.3/-3.2 -6, Palm -0.9/-11.9
Analytics says Reiber is a decent defender in limited mins/poss.
You can see the positive jumps in defense for most players in year 2 in the Pikiell era.
Myles is a huge loss on this team. He led this team for 3 straight years as the most efficient player on the floor, but in the limited possessions on the floor, Dean Reiber was more efficient than Myles 6.0 to 4.4(Teams Efficient Margin, Ken Pom for players, diff in Off Eff vs Def Eff, Ex. 102/98 +4.0), Paul was 2nd 5.1, Cliff was 4th, 3.9, RHJ 5th, 2.2, compared to Mathis -7.5, and JY -1.2, 2 lowest of the 8man rotation. I think RHJ's dip is from playing more minutes at the 4 this year and not having a legit backup like Yeboah, as compared to playing more 3 in 2019-20.
Caleb's change as a player over 3 years is fascinating.
Off 28.0 1.8 -10.7
Def -8.0 39.8 57.5
If he can regain that offensive freshman form, get healthy, and pair it with elite defense he's developed, he will be a force next year. He was 3rd ranked in all of college basketball, next to Jalen Suggs 61.7, Franz Wagner 58.0, Kofi Cockburn 57.0 and Lucas Williamson(Loyola,Ill) 56.7.
I think we have enough talent on the team to be fine next year to avoid a "rebuild".
1st factor, Is Geo and RHJ coming back or not? If they comeback, 2nd through 6th are coming back and healthy. It wouldn't shock me if Geo, Paul, Caleb, RHJ and Cliff are starters game 1 or one change based on a 1st team, 2nd team, Off/Def thing. You don't want all 5 def guys or 5 off guys. 2/3, 3/2 or 2/2/1. If they don't comeback, he has to fill those slots with transfers, position for position.
2nd factor, how quickly last year's freshman(Mag, Palm, Reiber, Jaden) and J. Miller develop their game in the Off-season/OOC schedule before conference schedule. Get those early season jitters out, because we know Pike can develop players when they are receptive to his coaching.
- OBPR: Offensive Bayesian Performance Rating reflects the offensive value a player brings to his team when he is on the court. This rating incoroporates a player's individual efficiency stats, and also accounts for the offensive strength of other teammates on the floor with him, along with the defensive strength of the opponent's players on the floor. A higher rating is better.
- DBPR: Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating reflects the defensive value a player brings to his team when he is on the court. This rating incoroporates a player's individual efficiency stats, and also accounts for the defensive strength of other teammates on the floor with him, along with the offensive strength of the opponent's players on the floor. A higher rating is better.
Players w/ 500+ Possessions
2016-17 OBPR/DBPR= TBPR (+/-) -52 (2163/2215)
1. M. Williams 24.6/21.4= 46.0 (+4) 2. E. Omoruyi -3.8/26.8= 23.0 (+26)
3. C. Sa -5.2/18.2= 13.0 (+13) 4. J. Laurant -8.5/17.4= 9.1 (-20)
5. D. Freeman -0.6/6.6= 6.0 (-83) 6. CJ. Gettys 0.8/2.0= 2.8 (-74)
7. N. Johnson -13.8/7.8= -5.4 (-89) 8. C. Sanders -32.8/6.2= -39.1 (-160)
2017-18 O/D= T(+/-) +12 (2216/2204)
1. D. Freeman -5.6/47.9= 42.3 (+30) 2. E. Omoruyi 8.1/18.2= 26.2 (-13)
3. C. Sa 0.6/24.1= 24.7 (-9) 4. M. Williams 1.4/22.0= 23.4 (+31)
5. G. Baker -7.3/30.3= 23.0 (-53) 6. M. Doucoure -22.1/30.6= 8.5 (-43)
7. C. Sanders -23.4/16.9= -6.5 (-99) 8. S. Doorson -6.5/-0.2= -6.7 (-123)
2018-19 O/D= T (+/-) -27 (2105/2032)
1. M. Johnson 35.2/19.1= 54.3 (+17) 2. E. Omoruyi 16.6/27.7= 44.3 (+0)
3. P. Kiss 7.5/17.1= 24.6 (+26) 4. R. Harper 6.1/14.4= 20.5 (-36)
5. C. McConnell 28.3/-8.0= 20.3 (-18) 6. G. Baker -6.7/20.8= 14.0 (-68)
7. I. Thiam -14.2/19.6= 5.4 (-21) 8. S. Doorson -12.9/17.0= 4.2 (-72)
9. M. Mathis -1.1/-12.8= -13.9 (-101) 10. S. Carter 10.7/36.9= -26.2 (-90)
BoxScore BPR- Myles, RHJ, SD, CM, Geo, EO, IT, MM, SC, PK
2019-20 O/D= T (+/-) +226 (2168/1942)
1. M. Johnson 37.8/50.4= 88.2 (+159) 2. R. Harper 32.4/40.1= 72.5 (+168)
3. M. Mathis 19.9/41.6= 61.5 (+100) 4. C. McConnell 1.8/39.8= 41.7 (+61)
5. A. Yeboah 3.1/35.1= 38.2 (+91) 6. G. Baker 12.9/19.1= 32.0 (+78)
7. J. Young -1.2/5.9= 4.7 (+40) 8. P. Mulcahy -3.4/8.1= 4.7 (+8)
9. S. Carter -15/0.5= -14.5 (-22)
There was some elite defense played in 2019-20 by 5 guys.
BoxScore BPR- Myles, RHJ, PM, AY, MM, CM, Geo, JY, SC
2020-21 O/D= T (+/-) +46 (1939/1893)
1. M. Johnson 34.4/45.7= 80.1 (+56) 2. P. Mulcahy 31.3/23.9= 55.2 (+66)
3. C. McConnell -10.7/57.5= 46.9 (+7) 4. R. Harper 22.1/17.0= 39.1 (+35)
5. G. Baker 19.4/17.2= 36.6 (-6) 6. C. Omoruyi -7.6/31.7= 24.1 (+18)
7. J. Young 15.0/-2.5= 12.5 (-19) 8. M. Mathis -7.8/3.7= 4.1 (-70)
BoxScore BPR- Myles, CM, Geo, PM, RHJ, Cliff, MM, JY
Limited possession players,
Douc(87/89) -44, Reiber(88/89) +5, Mag(79.82) -6, Palm(67/69) -7
Douc -0.5/-5.0, Reiber -23.0/17.0, Mag -3.3/-3.2 -6, Palm -0.9/-11.9
Analytics says Reiber is a decent defender in limited mins/poss.
You can see the positive jumps in defense for most players in year 2 in the Pikiell era.
Myles is a huge loss on this team. He led this team for 3 straight years as the most efficient player on the floor, but in the limited possessions on the floor, Dean Reiber was more efficient than Myles 6.0 to 4.4(Teams Efficient Margin, Ken Pom for players, diff in Off Eff vs Def Eff, Ex. 102/98 +4.0), Paul was 2nd 5.1, Cliff was 4th, 3.9, RHJ 5th, 2.2, compared to Mathis -7.5, and JY -1.2, 2 lowest of the 8man rotation. I think RHJ's dip is from playing more minutes at the 4 this year and not having a legit backup like Yeboah, as compared to playing more 3 in 2019-20.
Caleb's change as a player over 3 years is fascinating.
Off 28.0 1.8 -10.7
Def -8.0 39.8 57.5
If he can regain that offensive freshman form, get healthy, and pair it with elite defense he's developed, he will be a force next year. He was 3rd ranked in all of college basketball, next to Jalen Suggs 61.7, Franz Wagner 58.0, Kofi Cockburn 57.0 and Lucas Williamson(Loyola,Ill) 56.7.
I think we have enough talent on the team to be fine next year to avoid a "rebuild".
1st factor, Is Geo and RHJ coming back or not? If they comeback, 2nd through 6th are coming back and healthy. It wouldn't shock me if Geo, Paul, Caleb, RHJ and Cliff are starters game 1 or one change based on a 1st team, 2nd team, Off/Def thing. You don't want all 5 def guys or 5 off guys. 2/3, 3/2 or 2/2/1. If they don't comeback, he has to fill those slots with transfers, position for position.
2nd factor, how quickly last year's freshman(Mag, Palm, Reiber, Jaden) and J. Miller develop their game in the Off-season/OOC schedule before conference schedule. Get those early season jitters out, because we know Pike can develop players when they are receptive to his coaching.
This doesn’t get mentioned often - regardless of recruiting stars- Pike has a very good track record with assessing the ability of guards to play at the P5 level. Mensah was his only true miss with 6 clear hits and Kiss (who saw meaningful PT in his first year but was then beat out by even better incoming guards the following year).
Why are we not more bullish on Jalen Miller coming in and being able to contribute off the bench as a frosh? 7 out of 8 incoming Pike guards so far played 15+ minutes in their first year at RU.
Why are we not more bullish on Jalen Miller coming in and being able to contribute off the bench as a frosh? 7 out of 8 incoming Pike guards so far played 15+ minutes in their first year at RU.
It's basically an analytics tool for fantasy stats keeping, like Ken Pom or NET(team vs strength of team), but for Player vs strength of opposing player. A player scores 20 and 10 on a 300th ranked player doesn't give you as much credit as if you score 20 and 10 against a top rated defensive player. It shows you ultimately who does more when you play a tougher player than an easier player. Gonzaga and Baylor are 6 of the top 7 players in this analytics, hence the final 2 teams. Analytics are the future in sports.Could you repeat that?
Myles Johnson is 24th in all of college basketball, Cockburn 5th, Garza 11th(Garza's 2nd highest offense 81.8 to Timme 86, defense is 9.0, very average defender), Dickenson 12th. A lot of good centers resides in the B1G to boost the center position the way P6 teams boost each other up in NET and Ken Pom.
I don't think Pikiell can go Geo, Paul, Caleb, RHJ, Cliff as starters in the long run next season, with Miller, Jones, Mag, Palmquist, and Reiber off the bench, it leaves your bench with little to no experience and Cliff is more like a Sophomore than any of the other 5 players. He has to figure which starter is willing to come off the bench.
If Geo or RHJ doesnt come back, I'd like to see them pursue someone like Aundre Hyatt 38.1/-4.6 or back in the transfer portal, Izaiah Brockington 18.8/15.3 for Geo, Tre Mitchell 29.3/11.1 or Kur Kuath, Oklahoma, 15.1/27.7 for RHJ. If neither leave, we have a 10 player rotation but a need for experience off the bench even if we put one of the 5 experienced players to the bench, a need for one more is requirement in the off season who will accept that role.
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I don’t think both PM and Caleb will start. Who starts between them may rotate. I do think they’ll both play around 27-28 min though.
I am astonished at the fact that people thought Steve pikiell’s tenure as head coach would be an exponential rise with no bumps in the road. The guy literally took us from no NCAA tournaments in 30 years to an NCAA tournament in year 4(would have happened) and year 5.
Hey, we all would have signed for this in 2016 . He’s done a great job so far . But he gets paid to keep doing a good job
We’re a few weeks removed from our first tournament win in 30 years with a high probability of returning 5 key players from last years team and add a four star early enrollee. Plus we still have open spots for transfers.
I think it is a possibility.
Quite frankly I wouldn’t be that upset.
Times are changing. We have the portal. I’d rather Pike have multiple spots to get new players then to keep guys that don’t fit in to what he wants.
anyone that thinks Pike or anyone is going to bat 1.000 is crazy. It is possible Pike has some misses here. When you get try and get under the radar guys it happens. Let’s remember this program was built with under the radar guys and future success will be with under the radar guys.
Quite frankly I wouldn’t be that upset.
Times are changing. We have the portal. I’d rather Pike have multiple spots to get new players then to keep guys that don’t fit in to what he wants.
anyone that thinks Pike or anyone is going to bat 1.000 is crazy. It is possible Pike has some misses here. When you get try and get under the radar guys it happens. Let’s remember this program was built with under the radar guys and future success will be with under the radar guys.
do you think Pike's style is one to be aggressive with the portal and willing to hand the keys over to 1 or 2 year guys over guys like Paul and Caleb...good luck with that. Plus with little hope of a ncaa bid for next season, getting an impact guard and foward is a tall task. Pieces are only going to get you mediocrity and bottom 4 in the Big 10. Does Pike have a shark bite in him?
Maybe? He didn't want to do it with Geo and RHJ but the situation this year is not the same.
The portal has existed in its current form for literally one offseason, I don't think we should assume that whatever Pike did last year needs to continue forever. He is a human that can evolve and learn from mistakes.
well its because he had Hyatt and Jones coming in...but that also speaks to recruiting failures...does not give me any trust
Pikiell did bring in Jacob Young and Peter Kiss. It's not like he's always/only bringing in Agee types.
I think the presence of Harper and Geo dissuaded both Pikiell and players in the portal from anything happening this offseason. Pikiell badly misjudged the strength of the rest of the team. And any high-usage guys likely weren't interested in playing third banana here. It should be different this offseason with a ton of shots available next year. If it isn't then that's highly concerning.
I guess.. but it's the same guy who recruited the previous 2 teams. I feel like the reaction here is completely unwarranted based on results and is mostly based on everyone panicking about recruiting. And I don't think that's completely unfair, I just wish people would wait for it to pan out before freaking out so much.
Could this team turn into what the womens program is now....a bunch of transfers in and out with no purpose. Its a tough way to build. This staff has whiffed on virtually all their big name recruits except for Cliff and brought in way too many A10/MAAC level players
The losses give people at least the voice to talk about recruiting because when RU was winning you were told to shut up and stop complaining.....even when RU was winning games this year I thought recruiting was an issue, heck last year I was looking at recruiting and saying what the f....Palm, Reiber, Mag...what the heck is going to happen in the future. That sophomore class was NOT the type you bring in if you want to compete in the Big 10. I do not care what kind of potential that Mag or Reiber might have when they are seniors.
where is the 4? RU had Eugene and Pike hasnt landed one in a few years. Did great with Yeboah for one year but then what.
more of the same with Simpson for next year. not highly recruited
could we be like Minnesota, who brought a boatload of new players in and they did very well in their non conference slate (I remember posters running them down). That is an offensive minded team, is the Pike style team attractive to quality portal players
Haven't we been talking about how god awful it was to lose to Minnesota on the road? (I know they were missing players). Minnesota is not the goal.
Eugene wasn't recruited by anybody though. Geo Baker wasn't any more touted of a recruit than Palmquist or Reiber. Myles Johnson wasn't a "good" recruit. Mawot Mag was a better "recruit" than any of them.
I get that we were hoping for improvement but I'm not sure I buy the argument that things have gotten worse.
are you just thinking that underrecruited guys can win in the Big 10 consistently and without JY this wasnt a ncaa team either year despite what Geo, Ron, and Myles gave
do you think that blueprint is good enough, its even less recruiting than what Collins does at Northwestern.
How could you be in NJ ripe with basketball players at the top level and just be shunned by everyone...and I get it we had futility for 30 years but how could you not capitalize off that success.
do you think that blueprint is good enough, its even less recruiting than what Collins does at Northwestern.
How could you be in NJ ripe with basketball players at the top level and just be shunned by everyone...and I get it we had futility for 30 years but how could you not capitalize off that success.
well their team got a new coach and the roster was barren so I would say they did pretty good in a rebuilding year.
No - I think he’s saying that blueprint is basically how we’ve won so far with the exception of JY (I.e. not that it’s necessarily the best plan but it’s what has happened so far).
Yes, what PSAL said. Is it good enough? I don’t know, I’m not nearly enough of a recruiting expert to know the answer to that. I don’t necessarily think it’s obviously impossible to put together 2019-21 like teams fairly consistently with that kind of recruiting.
Is that the end goal or where everyone wants to be? No, everyone wants to eventually compete for championships instead of 10 seeds, and for that the recruiting definitely needs to improve. But if we continue along at the decent to good level for longer it may. I don’t buy that two pretty good teams and a practice facility erased the last 30 years.