Wait until kids can get paid. It’s a farm system for the upper tier teams more than ever before.
Maybe the problem is the transfer portal
- Thread starter RUSCFORMERLYRULOU
- Start date
Not all of them though...mid majors will largely retain their bases...or swap around other mid majors, but think of this as a free mulligan for the p5 who may have missed a star on a sun belt team, or a late bloomer. The most dynamic mid majors I think will be on free rolls to the p5
It cements the fact that we won’t be competing with those schools regularly.
Way of the world now. Roster turnovers are a yearly thing. Makes it all less interesting IMO.
I am for 1 free transfer. An important decision made when you are 16 shouldn’t be permanent. Players shouldn’t be able to make money, but they shouldn’t be stuck at a school. Making them sit out a year is either taking a year of hoops away from them or taking a year away from their professional (not always basketball) career.
I don't have an issue with it. It's just change, and people have to learn to live with change and adapt.
The coaches that can adapt well to selling the value of their program and staff to kids in the portal will succeed, and it won't just be the blue bloods... Though they will have advantage, just as they do now in high school recruiting.
The picture also becomes very different. You're not trying to sell a person transfer on four years at your school, just the next year, and at which time he'll have an opportunity to go somewhere else if what you sold turned out to be a bill of goods.
Bad or abusive coaching staffs will struggle, while the staffs with strong development ability will become a higher priority for players looking at them as a stepping stone from a lower program to a top-tier program.
There will be less risk to going to a smaller program out of high school, because you'll be able to capitalize on success and move somewhere else if you want.
It's going to feel a bit like the Wild West until people get their arms around it, but I have a feeling it'll settle into a new normal in not too long. This year will be an especially wild one because of Covid.
And of course a segment of the fan base will wail and gnash their teeth about it, and there will probably be no small overlap with those who've shakn their fists at the dramatic increase in 3-point shooting.
The coaches that can adapt well to selling the value of their program and staff to kids in the portal will succeed, and it won't just be the blue bloods... Though they will have advantage, just as they do now in high school recruiting.
The picture also becomes very different. You're not trying to sell a person transfer on four years at your school, just the next year, and at which time he'll have an opportunity to go somewhere else if what you sold turned out to be a bill of goods.
Bad or abusive coaching staffs will struggle, while the staffs with strong development ability will become a higher priority for players looking at them as a stepping stone from a lower program to a top-tier program.
There will be less risk to going to a smaller program out of high school, because you'll be able to capitalize on success and move somewhere else if you want.
It's going to feel a bit like the Wild West until people get their arms around it, but I have a feeling it'll settle into a new normal in not too long. This year will be an especially wild one because of Covid.
And of course a segment of the fan base will wail and gnash their teeth about it, and there will probably be no small overlap with those who've shakn their fists at the dramatic increase in 3-point shooting.
The portal is a chance to fix a past recruiting miss or upgrade your roster where it is currently the weakest. I don't see how this is a negative in any way from a RU perspective.
And I am also a realist and understand while a Duke or Kansas may patch a hole with a transfer, the Elite schools, still accumulate way too many players that can impact other programs.
It also forces the teams who scout well and develop to stay in that mode, because you have a better chance at avoiding higher amounts of turnover vs those schools that "over-recruit".
A school like Gonzaga, Baylor, UNC, Kansas or Michigan probably has a 9th, 10th or 11th player that can be a 2nd or 3rd player at a mid-major or rebuilding program.
Since most teams really only play 9 kids at a time in their rotation, there are probably 2 to 3 kids there to develop into a rotational player down the road.
I don't think the portal is anything else other than greedy or star-struck HS, AAU coaches or family members, thinking their kids are good enough to play at a certain level....and then when they realize how difficult it actually is to play well and win, they want to transfer, thinking it will be better at their next stop.
And I am also a realist and understand while a Duke or Kansas may patch a hole with a transfer, the Elite schools, still accumulate way too many players that can impact other programs.
It also forces the teams who scout well and develop to stay in that mode, because you have a better chance at avoiding higher amounts of turnover vs those schools that "over-recruit".
A school like Gonzaga, Baylor, UNC, Kansas or Michigan probably has a 9th, 10th or 11th player that can be a 2nd or 3rd player at a mid-major or rebuilding program.
Since most teams really only play 9 kids at a time in their rotation, there are probably 2 to 3 kids there to develop into a rotational player down the road.
I don't think the portal is anything else other than greedy or star-struck HS, AAU coaches or family members, thinking their kids are good enough to play at a certain level....and then when they realize how difficult it actually is to play well and win, they want to transfer, thinking it will be better at their next stop.
The next thing that we will see if a group of friends decide to transfer together to create a NBA-like big 3 super team.
I do think it is mission impossible for the coaches to effectively manage their rosters with so many moving parts. Maybe the NCAA should implement some structure and/or time deadlines to help manage the process. For instance, having specific transfer portal recruiting windows and corresponding black out periods.
I do think it is mission impossible for the coaches to effectively manage their rosters with so many moving parts. Maybe the NCAA should implement some structure and/or time deadlines to help manage the process. For instance, having specific transfer portal recruiting windows and corresponding black out periods.
All of these articles seem to be saying "X Player will transfer" or "X Player leaves Y school".... but that's not really what the portal is. Entering the portal means that a player is looking to transfer.... not that they will or that they've yet left a school. The portal allows them to gauge interest of other schools, and it puts their current school in the position of having to make a decision - do they continue to recruit this player, or cut him loose and look elsewhere?
There will be something like 1200 players in the portal this year - and I can't imagine 100% of them will end up at another school or without a scholarship; some non-zero percentage of them will end up continuing on with their current school.
I know a lot of fans are of the mind that entering the transfer portal makes a player dead to them, or that they'd be unwilling to take the player back - but I can't imagine coaches are thinking that way, and if one of their key players is in the portal they'll almost certain be talking seriously with them about whether there's a door open with the player to possibly return.
Johnson and Young are completely different situations.
Johnson has a much much higher focus on academic value than almost any other player - and he's exploring what might be the best fit for him to have a school pay for his graduate studies while he plays basketball. Since he hasn't been able to talk to any programs (namely Stanford, UCLA, and USC), he doesn't know what their expectations are.... it's likely that one or more of them will make every effort to accommodate his academic needs, but there's the chance that no where feels like it'd be a better opportunity than Rutgers. While I feel that there's a 99%+ likelihood that he's gone, there is still a chance he returns (imo).
Young, though, is bound for a professional team next year, but he's looking to see if anything else out there might be more attractive. I see 0% chance that he returns to Rutgers, and a pretty low chance he ends up at another school somewhere - I doubt he's being eyed up by Gonzaga or Baylor or anyone who might have preseason expectations of a Final Four, and he'll likely be paid to play somewhere next year instead.
There will be something like 1200 players in the portal this year - and I can't imagine 100% of them will end up at another school or without a scholarship; some non-zero percentage of them will end up continuing on with their current school.
I know a lot of fans are of the mind that entering the transfer portal makes a player dead to them, or that they'd be unwilling to take the player back - but I can't imagine coaches are thinking that way, and if one of their key players is in the portal they'll almost certain be talking seriously with them about whether there's a door open with the player to possibly return.
Johnson and Young are completely different situations.
Johnson has a much much higher focus on academic value than almost any other player - and he's exploring what might be the best fit for him to have a school pay for his graduate studies while he plays basketball. Since he hasn't been able to talk to any programs (namely Stanford, UCLA, and USC), he doesn't know what their expectations are.... it's likely that one or more of them will make every effort to accommodate his academic needs, but there's the chance that no where feels like it'd be a better opportunity than Rutgers. While I feel that there's a 99%+ likelihood that he's gone, there is still a chance he returns (imo).
Young, though, is bound for a professional team next year, but he's looking to see if anything else out there might be more attractive. I see 0% chance that he returns to Rutgers, and a pretty low chance he ends up at another school somewhere - I doubt he's being eyed up by Gonzaga or Baylor or anyone who might have preseason expectations of a Final Four, and he'll likely be paid to play somewhere next year instead.
The aggressive coaches and programs will have a distinct advantage. It will pay to move quickly.
Isn't that the first thing everyone says when a HS recruit commits?
"Great! Start talking to your friends and recruit them to come to Rutgers!"
Disagree
There aren't that many of them and all coaches are not scumbags
Even the mid major stickouts go to the NBA early.
If a mid major guy is patient by end of May all the Big Schools will be full and they'll be plenty of guys available.
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