3/2 BACATOLOGY: NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS

[BigEastPhil]

10:/ 11 seed with a loss. Ugh. Sparty is a tough tough game the way they’re playing now.

 

[bac2therac]

10:/ 11 seed with a loss. Ugh. Sparty is a tough tough game the way they’re playing now.

yep almost a certainty we are 10/11 with a loss

 

[bac2therac]

also what is uncertain is how the committee will seed St Bonnies (with A10 win) and Loyola..anywhere from 8-10

 

[bac2therac]

chatter that Saint Louis may try to schedule another quality OOC opponent this week to try and make a case for their NCAA at large

 

[Scarlet Blind_rivals]

I was thinking Rutgers would've done the same to get an easy win to stay 2 games over .500, if they had lost to Minnesota yesterday.

 

[bac2therac]

There are games that will eliminate schools right off the bat in conference tourney play

Seton Hall-St Johns in Big East quarters
Syracuse-NC State in ACC first round

Utah State-Colorado State paired to meet up in the MWC semis if they survive their quarterfinal tilts.

 

[BigEastPhil]

chatter that Saint Louis may try to schedule another quality OOC opponent this week to try and make a case for their NCAA at large

Interesting. Whom would the opponent be? P6 conferences have their tournaments going on this week. So opponent would have to be low / mid major who has no tourney going on this week and would be willing to play a game.

 

[bac2therac]

 

[RUfanSinceAnderson]

chatter that Saint Louis may try to schedule another quality OOC opponent this week to try and make a case for their NCAA at large

Who would play them other than another bubble team?

 

[King of S]

Uta

There are games that will eliminate schools right off the bat in conference tourney play

Seton Hall-St Johns in Big East quarters
Syracuse-NC State in ACC first round

Utah State-Colorado State paired to meet up in the MWC semis if they survive their quarterfinal tilts.

Utah St./Colorado St. has the making of a great game.

 

[bac2therac]

Uta

Utah St./Colorado St. has the making of a great game.

Not really, based on the how these teams have played of late

 

[bac2therac]

Critical loss for Maryland. At just 14-12 a loss to Sparty puts them at 14-13. Note they are only 6-12 vs q1 and 2. If they beat Sparty they are in....a loss and they could be headed to first 4

I would put them in the first 4 byes grouping at the moment

Full scrub tomorrow and hopefully new full analysis tomorrow night or early Tuesday

 

[Scarlet Blind_rivals]

I think Md is probably out, but close, if they lose to MSU.
Q1 4-9 Q2 2-4 Q3 5-0
If they win and lose(1-1), they are in (15-13),1 non d1 win
Q1 4-10 Q2 3-3 Q3 5-0
Ws @ Illinois, @Wisc., @ Rutgers, vs Purdue

 

[bac2therac]

the problem is its hard to make a case for another over them....Syracuse? Xavier? Ole Miss?

 

[Erial_Lion_rivals140457]

Sparty, Us and Maryland are 8/9 seeds. Thus at least one squad will be moved to 7/10 line given 2 #1 seeds from our conference.
What seed will Wisconsin be?

Keep in mind that with unbalanced schedules, teams that only met once can meet in the second round...so, Rutgers could be in the same section as Michigan, Michigan St with Illinois, etc.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Who would play them other than another bubble team?

Drake?

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

the problem is its hard to make a case for another over them....Syracuse? Xavier? Ole Miss?

Its hard this year with the high loss teams in top conferences. Tough to say what the committee will do there.

If Xavier beats Butler they are going to get in. Having a good overall record with that Oklahoma win will be enough.

The Maryland vs Syracuse side by side resume is a tougher case, but on the other hand, I’m not sure why the MWC teams are locked ahead of Syracuse with only one less loss?

 

[King of S]

the problem is its hard to make a case for another over them....Syracuse? Xavier? Ole Miss?

Utah St.?

 

[Scarlet Blind_rivals]

MWC could boil down to who of the 3 teams doesn't make the semifinals in the conference tournament on a neutral, if all 4 make it, it will be interesting..

#19 SDSt (In) H BSU 2-0, @ Utah St 0-2, H CSU 1-1 / 4H 2R (3-3)
O-3, 6-1, 7-0, L.H BYU, W H UCLA, W H St Mary's
#43 Boise St @ SDSt 0-2, H Utah St 2-0, @ CSU 1-1 / 2H 4R (3-3)
(8-6 but Q4L)2-4, 2-2, 4-0, 1 Q4L, W @ BYU, L @ Houston by10
#48 Utah St H SDSt 2-0, @ BSU 0-2, H CSU 1-1 / 4H 2R (3-3)
(9-7)2-4, 1-1, 6-2, L N VCU by16, L H BYU, L N 121 SoDakSt, W N 190 N.Iowa
#50 CSU 2H 4R (3-3)
(6-5)2-3, 1-2, 3-0, L @St. Mary's by20, H 144 Santa Clara

Boise St. and CSU have an edge 4 Road 2 Home, but all 4 finished 3-3 against each other. I'm glad I'm not the committee figuring this out, but SD ST is in despite the lack of a Q1 win

 

[G- RUnit]

I think it’s kinda fun but would hate to be the 4th.

 

[bigmatt718]

Not a ton of action today except for low major tourneys. I'm interested to see how the CAA plays out with JMU out. I think Hofstra or Northeastern comes out of the CAA, but Drexel is no pushover either.

 

[toby83]

also what is uncertain is how the committee will seed St Bonnies (with A10 win) and Loyola..anywhere from 8-10

Bonnies are NO JOKE. a top 10 point guard in the country as well as 6'10" freak who can hang with any power five.

 

[RUfan1027]

I think if Xavier and Syracuse bow out in round 1 of their conference tourney...the committee should consider the 4 teams in the MWC. I rather see these guys get a crack at the power 5 schools then teams like Ole Miss, Seton Hall, St Johns, etc that have had numerous cracks at it.

 

[Spare130_rivals]

@bac2therac one more question for you. What does Illinois need to do to secure a 1 seed?

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

I think if Xavier and Syracuse bow out in round 1 of their conference tourney...the committee should consider the 4 teams in the MWC. I rather see these guys get a crack at the power 5 schools then teams like Ole Miss, Seton Hall, St Johns, etc that have had numerous cracks at it.

Outside an auto bid, I don’t see how on selection day any 8 loss MWC team deserves to be in ahead of 9 loss Xavier or Syracuse teams. Miami beat Purdue. The bottom of the ACC isn’t great but it’s nothing like Air Force, SJSU and NM. Fresno is terrible too.

 

[bac2therac]

@bac2therac one more question for you. What does Illinois need to do to secure a 1 seed?

I think its likely theirs. Beat Rutgers in quarters and no doubt. The only one that can challenge is Bama

 

[bac2therac]

Outside an auto bid, I don’t see how on selection day any 8 loss MWC team deserves to be in ahead of 9 loss Xavier or Syracuse teams. Miami beat Purdue. The bottom of the ACC isn’t great but it’s nothing like Air Force, SJSU and NM. Fresno is terrible too.

Agree..MWC is being given way too much credit for feasting on drek in Q3 And 4

 

[bac2therac]

Bonnies are NO JOKE. a top 10 point guard in the country as well as 6'10" freak who can hang with any power five.

They pass the eye test

 

[GimmeSomeMore]

Love our conference tournament layout - while I would have preferred to get Iowa with Weiskamp hurt, we know we match up with Illinois based on last year and this.

I think a run to the conference final is there for the taking, and if that includes wins over Ill and Iowa (though I'd expect we'd see Wisky) our profile starts to look like Tenn, Mizzou (i.e., 5 or a 6) - I think we'd settle to a 6 [beat UM or OSU in the final and we are a 5].

Wishful thinking, but in range.

Lose to IU and we are a 10 which might be better than 8/9 as others have stated many times.

Most likely outcome is beat IU, lose to IL, and settle into the 8 / 9 game, with Gonzaga/Baylor waiting in round of 32. In that case, give me the Zags and hope they have a bad (horrible) shooting day in an unfamiliar gym and we catch fire- in that case, 76-73 could happen.

I don't think we could score enough vs. a motivated Baylor D and could see that being 60-44 type result.

 

[RutgersClassof2004]

Love our conference tournament layout - while I would have preferred to get Iowa with Weiskamp hurt, we know we match up with Illinois based on last year and this.

I think a run to the conference final is there for the taking, and if that includes wins over Ill and Iowa (though I'd expect we'd see Wisky) our profile starts to look like Tenn, Mizzou (i.e., 5 or a 6) - I think we'd settle to a 6 [beat UM or OSU in the final and we are a 5].

Wishful thinking, but in range.

Lose to IU and we are a 10 which might be better than 8/9 as others have stated many times.

Most likely outcome is beat IU, lose to IL, and settle into the 8 / 9 game, with Gonzaga/Baylor waiting in round of 32. In that case, give me the Zags and hope they have a bad (horrible) shooting day in an unfamiliar gym and we catch fire- in that case, 76-73 could happen.

I don't think we could score enough vs. a motivated Baylor D and could see that being 60-44 type result.

nice take. agreed.

 

[Shell21]

would love this seed line. None of those 7s scare me and I think if we played well we could put a scare into any of those 2s as well
.

 

[bac2therac]

the 7s, 8s and 9s are really not all that great..key would be avoiding UConn and Loyola

its the 11 spot is what RU wants to avoid so that means beating Indiana so they do not drop down. The 6s (besides USC) and any 5 of that might drop down pose pretty good challenges.

 

[Shell21]

Yea I wouldn’t want to play uconn. Would be fine with Loyola though . If we r a 10 I’d like to get Clemson then Houston as a 2. That would be be best possible path