3/2 BACATOLOGY: NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS

[bac2therac]

thats pretty good analysis. Its just real tough to have big movement. I think even a Big 10 championship would only get us to 5

 

[Scarlet Shack]

thats pretty good analysis. Its just real tough to have big movement. I think even a Big 10 championship would only get us to 5

I considered that ...I just thought that if we did get to 18-10...that’s 24-11 in a normal season with cupcakes added...and while it might be a 5...having three wins against NCAA 1 seed in scanairo (Illinois Twice and Michigan) might give us a slight bump

 

[Plum Street]

Nova should be a 5. They shouldn’t get out of the first weekend .

 

[bac2therac]

full body of work, they won the Big East and geez it was only their 5th loss today and it was with an injured player

 

[RUDead]

A conference tourney run from an underdog can really help a team's seeding, but traditionally, I don't remember teams getting punished much for tourney losses.

 

[bac2therac]

A conference tourney run from an underdog can really help a team's seeding, but traditionally, I don't remember teams getting punished much for tourney losses.

true, tourney performance is not a big mover for seeds as one would think, its just one or two games on a resume, its more important for teams needing to get into the tourament

 

[bac2therac]

LSU got a big road win over Missouri. LSU is a 8 and stay that way so that wasnt a good results as far as trying to move up in seeds

 

[bac2therac]

Drake survives Missouri St to reach the MVC finals vs Loyola Chicago

 

[bac2therac]

Illinois locks down that one seed IMO by knocking off Ohio State

 

[bac2therac]

Wow USC stuns UCLA with corner 3 with 1.4 left..they had not led all game.

Great result for RU because it keeps UCLA from moving up in seedings. In fact I think UCLA is teetering if they dont win one Pac 12 tourney game

 

[Scarlet Blind_rivals]

If no upsets except for our run
0-1 14-11 Q1 4-8 Q2 5-3 Q3 3-0 Q4 2-0 9-10 seed
I would have to believe our opponent is Indiana or MSU is a Q2 on neutral court
The rest of the next 3 opponents should be Q1s
1-1 15-11 Q1 4-9 Q2 6-2 Q3 3-0 8-9 seed
2-1 16-11 Q1 5-9 Q2 6-2 Q3 3-0 7-8 seed
3-1 17-11 Q1 6-9 Q2 6-2 Q3 3-0 6-7 seed
4-0 18-10 Q1 7-8 Q2 6-2 Q3 3-0 5-6 seed

Would be my best guestimate, and depending on what others do and other RU B1G wins Or losses don't change any.

 

[bac2therac]

Louisville loses at home to Virginia. Its not a great profile and it would be hard for them to miss but they should win a ACC tourney game to be safe

 

[saltpepperketchup]

Ok bac....here is how I see it for RU now ...you tell me if you see it this way

Rutgers loses to Indiana first round ...10 seed

Rutgers loses to Michigan state in first round ..9/10 seed

Rutgers beats Indiana ....9 seed

Rutgers beats Michigan state ...8/9 seed

Rutgers beats either Illinois/Michigan in the quarterfinal ...7 seed ...remain at
Above seed if they lose

Rutgers wins semifinal game against Purdue or Wisconsin ...6 /7 seed border

Rutgers wins big ten tournament ...with win over Ohio state or Iowa (5 seed) or win over Michigan (4 seed)

I don't think our resume is getting enough credit.

Combined Q1/Q2 9-10. Zero Q3/Q4 losses. Best win #1 seed Illinois. Toughest conf in the country. Most other schools mentioned by many analysts around 8/9/10 in other conferences can't compare.

Really we should be very comparable to Wisconsin.

They are also combined Q1/Q2 9-10. Zero Q3/Q4 losses. Their best win? Us or Maryland? Expecting them to lose tomorrow vs Iowa.

Don't get why they're considered like a solid 6 and we could be a 10?

 

[bac2therac]

I don't think our resume is getting enough credit.

Combined Q1/Q2 9-10. Zero Q3/Q4 losses. Best win #1 seed Illinois. Toughest conf in the country. Most other schools mentioned by many analysts around 8/9/10 in other conferences can't compare.

Really we should be very comparable to Wisconsin.

They are also combined Q1/Q2 9-10. Zero Q3/Q4 losses. Their best win? Us or Maryland? Expecting them to lose tomorrow vs Iowa.

Don't get why they're considered like a solid 6 and we could be a 10?

wisconsin is headed downward, I have seen 7s for them too, if they dont win again which is possibly given a possible matchup with Penn State, they fall to an 8/9 game

 

[kcg88]

Wave goodbye to Duke and Saint Louis

 

[RUPartisan]

I don't think our resume is getting enough credit.

Combined Q1/Q2 9-10. Zero Q3/Q4 losses. Best win #1 seed Illinois. Toughest conf in the country. Most other schools mentioned by many analysts around 8/9/10 in other conferences can't compare.

Really we should be very comparable to Wisconsin.

They are also combined Q1/Q2 9-10. Zero Q3/Q4 losses. Their best win? Us or Maryland? Expecting them to lose tomorrow vs Iowa.

Don't get why they're considered like a solid 6 and we could be a 10?

Exactly. If we had 2-3 more random OOC cupcake wins on our resume we would be looked at a lot differently. It makes no sense.

 

[bac2therac]

Bonnies look like they lock up a spot no matter what happens in A10 tourney

 

[kcg88]

Bonnies look like they lock up a spot no matter what happens in A10 tourney

A10 looks like a two-bid league with Bona and VCU.

 

[kcg88]

Seton Hall on life support, need to make the Big East title game

 

[bac2therac]

Im not sure why bracketologists have been so high on them and so slow to drop them

Their resume is trash. Big deal they beat Uconn and Xavier but filled with losses to mediocrity from the Big East

I think they need to win the Big East tourney to go

St Johns though in the running now

 

[Scarlet Shack]

Illinois locks down that one seed IMO by knocking off Ohio State

Curious ...Since ESPN kept saying the same thing

Suppose Illinois lost to us in the quarterfinal of the big ten tourney

And Iowa wins the big ten tourney

Could scanario (with Iowa getting additional quality wins) get Iowa the 1 seed over Illinois

Don’t think so...but it would be close

 

[bac2therac]

Nope

Conference tourney dont usurp regular season. This is Illinois spot

 

[kcg88]

Im not sure why bracketologists have been so high on them and so slow to drop them

Their resume is trash. Big deal they beat Uconn and Xavier but filled with losses to mediocrity from the Big East

I think they need to win the Big East tourney to go

St Johns though in the running now

Even with a loss to Marquette I'd still have Xavier above St. John's. That Oklahoma win helps a lot. And they didn't lose to Butler and DePaul.

 

[kcg88]

Belmont getting smoked in the OVC championship. If they hadn't lost their last two regular season games they'd be in as an at large.

 

[Night Man]

thats pretty good analysis. Its just real tough to have big movement. I think even a Big 10 championship would only get us to 5

Different world now but thinking back to our BE days:

Syracuse 2006: going into the BET they were 7-9 BE, 19-11 overall, I know NET wasn't a thing then but they were ~3-9 Q1. They won 4 "Q1" games in the BET and got a 5 seed. RU's resume would be unequivocally better than this.
UConn 2011: going into the BET they were 9-9 BE, 21-9 overall, ~8-9 Q1. They won 4 "Q1" games in the BET and got a 3 seed.

 

[bac2therac]

Even with a loss to Marquette I'd still have Xavier above St. John's. That Oklahoma win helps a lot. And they didn't lose to Butler and DePaul.

For now i agree

 

[T2Kplus20]

Illinois locks down that one seed IMO by knocking off Ohio State

Zags, UM, Baylor, and Illinois.

 

[fluoxetine]

Different world now but thinking back to our BE days:

Syracuse 2006: going into the BET they were 7-9 BE, 19-11 overall, I know NET wasn't a thing then but they were ~3-9 Q1. They won 4 "Q1" games in the BET and got a 5 seed. RU's resume would be unequivocally better than this.
UConn 2011: going into the BET they were 9-9 BE, 21-9 overall, ~8-9 Q1. They won 4 "Q1" games in the BET and got a 3 seed.

I think if we won the BTT we'd get a 3 seed. That would likely include wins over Illinois, Iowa, and Michigan, 18-10 overall, 7-8 Q1, 13-10 Q1/Q2.

0-1 => 10 seed
1-1 => 9 seed
2-1 => 7 seed
3-1 => 6 seed
4-0 => 3 seed

IMO

(Assuming opponents are Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan)

 

[Night Man]

One more... Michigan 2017

20-11 (10-8) going into the B1GT. ~5-8 Q1. No Q3 losses. 3 Q1 wins in DC. 7 seed. Tough crowd.

 

[bac2therac]

Its very tough to move up just with a tourney run championship

No way a 3..no way

 

[fluoxetine]

A Rutgers team that runs off 4 wins including two more over #1 seeds and a #2 seed has the resume for a #3 seed.

 

[bac2therac]

You place too much emphasis on tournaments

Its not happening anyway so its pointless to discuss. Its in the if my aunt had balls type discussion

 

[fluoxetine]

Rutgers / Kansas
18-10 / 21-9
Q1 7-8 / 8-9
Q2 6-2 / 3-0
Q3 3-0 / 4-0
Q4 2-0 / 5-0

Wins over Illinois x2, Iowa, Michigan / Win over Baylor


Don't get me wrong I give Kansas the edge there but not by much.

 

[fluoxetine]

You place too much emphasis on tournaments

Its not happening anyway so its pointless to discuss. Its in the if my aunt had balls type discussion

Nothing to do with it being a tournament. If we won those four straight and they were regular season games it would be the same thing. The games don't become LESS important because they're tournament games.

I mean I agree it isn't happening.

 

[bac2therac]

Vcu over Davidson advances to A10 championship vs St Bonnies. Both appear very solid at this point

Marquette ready to defeat Xavier. Honestly because of the weakness of the bubble not sure who gets projected in that last spot now. Xavier? Syracuse? Utah State? Mississippi?

With a loss tomorrow Michigan State WILL remain in the field

 

[bac2therac]

Rutgers / Kansas
18-10 / 21-9
Q1 7-8 / 8-9
Q2 6-2 / 3-0
Q3 3-0 / 4-0
Q4 2-0 / 5-0

Wins over Illinois x2, Iowa, Michigan / Win over Baylor


Don't get me wrong I give Kansas the edge there but not by much.

Remember things are played in a vacuum. Houston winning AAC tourney keeps them a 3. Arkansas has come on strong and may deserve a 3..what if they win SEC. Nova effected by injuries but can they hang onto a 3. FSU in line for a 3 for winning AAC reg season?

 

[fluoxetine]

Michigan State needs to get one of the next two IMO, much like Rutgers before today.

 

[fluoxetine]

Remember things are played in a vacuum. Houston winning AAC tourney keeps them a 3. Arkansas has come on strong and may deserve a 3..what if they win SEC. Nova effected by injuries but can they hang onto a 3. FSU in line for a 3 for winning AAC reg season?

Of course, it's not like I'm saying that if Rutgers were to win the BTT they definitely, 100% get a three seed. I'm just saying that if things played out largely as expected and we did have that miracle stretch we would have a comparable resume to the current projected three seeds.

 

[bac2therac]

Michigan State needs to get one of the next two IMO, much like Rutgers before today.

Who would you replace them with

These bubbles beat no one

Msu beat Illinois and Ohio state

 

[fluoxetine]

MSU definitely has an edge over basically all bubbles in terms of quality wins, but 14-13 (8-12) is just such a mediocre overall record. I would not expect them to get in over all of these schools out there with mediocre resumes but just simply more wins, i.e. even a team like Syracuse or Colorado St.

I mean they basically have all the same problems Rutgers would've had if we lost out except an even worse conference record and worse NET ranking.