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Greene Rice FIG

Heisman
Dec 30, 2005
40,437
23,613
0
Anything north of a 60% shooter puts the expected defensive points per possession over 1.0 and puts the foul count closer to 10.
 
Z

zappaa

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
75,022
91,821
103
Greene Rice FIG said:
Anything north of a 60% shooter puts the expected defensive points per possession over 1.0 and puts the foul count closer to 10.
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Not sure what that means?
Without using statistics and percentages, would your heart sink if on fouls 7,,8 and 9 with 4 minutes to go in the game down 5, the opposition fouled Myles?
My guess is you’re thinking MJ is an anomaly at this level and even a bad free throw shooter at 60%, using this strategy will work against you in the long run.
Obviously I bring it up because the two dagger 3s by Caleb were after front end misses
 
D

djrc89

All-Conference
Aug 4, 2001
3,588
2,798
92
With everything in sports turning to “the metrics”. It’s surprising that there isn’t a sheet telling coaches exactly whom and when to foul. Certainly there comes a point late in the game when the clock becomes a bigger enemy than your opponent
 
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RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,840
9,239
113
If you're winning, it stops the clock.

And with every foul it puts you that much closer to the double bonus.

And as noted above, unless it's a guy like Myles shooting below 50%, you are putting a player in as easy an oppurtunity to put points on the board as possible.

But I am surprised we don't see more hack a Myles. Maybe coaches look down upon it?
 
Z

zappaa

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
75,022
91,821
103
RU-05 said:
If you're winning, it stops the clock.

And with every foul it puts you that much closer to the double bonus.

And as noted above, unless it's a guy like Myles shooting below 50%, you are putting a player in as easy an oppurtunity to put points on the board as possible.

But I am surprised we don't see more hack a Myles. Maybe coaches look down upon it?
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Perhaps Pike coaches us to keep the ball away from Myles if the opposition is in the 7 or 8 fouls against them late in the game
 
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RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,840
9,239
113
zappaa said:
Perhaps Pike coaches us to keep the ball away from Myles if the opposition is in the 7 or 8 fouls against them late in the game
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I'm sure he does, as @richthedentist notes, he'll take him out on offense, and reinsert him on defensive possessions when he can.

But do opposing coaches tell their players to immediately foul Myles if he grabs a defensive rebound? Even say late in the first half? They probably should from a tactical stand point. But I wonder if, at the college level, there is a gentleman's agreement not put poor foul shooters in the spotlight like that.
 
Z

zappaa

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
75,022
91,821
103
RU-05 said:
I'm sure he does, as @richthedentist notes, he'll take him out on offense, and reinsert him on defensive possessions when he can.

But do opposing coaches tell their players to immediately foul Myles if he grabs a defensive rebound? Even say late in the first half? They probably should from a tactical stand point. But I wonder if, at the college level, there is a gentleman's agreement not put poor foul shooters in the spotlight like that.
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I’m just gonna say no to that.
And add, the poster who mentioned it stops the clock, that’s what you want if your losing
 
R

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,840
9,239
113
zappaa said:
I’m just gonna say no to that.
And add, the poster who mentioned it stops the clock, that’s what you want if your losing
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Yeah if you're losing sure, but we do see teams foul in late game situations. So let's say it's 5 minutes to go, it then goes to my other point that it get's the opposing team that much closer to the double bonus.

So we can see that if you break it down, there are limited situations where it's a clear positive, but from an opposing teams standpoint, should Myles shoot more then 3 ft's in a game? I think yes.
 
Z

zappaa

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
75,022
91,821
103
RU-05 said:
Yeah if you're losing sure, but we do see teams foul in late game situations. So let's say it's 5 minutes to go, it then goes to my other point that it get's the opposing team that much closer to the double bonus.

So we can see that if you break it down, there are limited situations where it's a clear positive, but from an opposing teams standpoint, should Myles shoot more then 3 ft's in a game? I think yes.
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I listened to a Fran McCafferey pod-cast a day before our game,
He clearly stated sending MJ to the line late in a close game would be a strategy
 
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L

Loyal_2RU

Heisman
Aug 6, 2001
15,236
11,052
113
zappaa said:
I listened to a Fran McCafferey pod-cast a day before our game our game
He clearly stated sending MJ to the line late in a close game would be a strategy
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And the fact of saying that is an act of gamesmanship
 
G

Greene Rice FIG

Heisman
Dec 30, 2005
40,437
23,613
0
zappaa said:
Not sure what that means?
Without using statistics and percentages, would your heart sink if on fouls 7,,8 and 9 with 4 minutes to go in the game down 5, the opposition fouled Myles?
My guess is you’re thinking MJ is an anomaly at this level and even a bad free throw shooter at 60%, using this strategy will work against you in the long run.
Obviously I bring it up because the two dagger 3s by Caleb were after front end misses
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Myles is under 60% so yes. Everyone else I wouldn’t.

how many times was Myles in a position to foul last night in the last 6 minutes?
 
LeapinLou

LeapinLou

All-American
Jul 24, 2001
13,183
6,876
113
Knight Owl said:
They should permit teams to decline free throws and just get an inbound instead. Would keep poor foul shooters from being forced to shoot them, would speed up the game and make coaching strategy even more important.
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Not a crazy idea. But yes it would have a major impact on how to coach the game and overall strategy.
 
K

Knight Owl

All-Conference
Jul 27, 2001
3,536
2,580
0
LeapinLou said:
Not a crazy idea. But yes it would have a major impact on how to coach the game and overall strategy.
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I mean any decent coach can design some fool-proof inbounds plays from half court with a full shot clock. They could even move the inbounds defender back a little more and draw a thin line on the floor to enforce it.
Id much prefer a change like this than that awful ‘no more game clock just get to a point total at the end of the game rule’ they’ve experimented with.
 
R

richthedentist

All-American
Aug 2, 2001
11,033
8,599
113
RU-05 said:
I'm sure he does, as @richthedentist notes, he'll take him out on offense, and reinsert him on defensive possessions when he can.

But do opposing coaches tell their players to immediately foul Myles if he grabs a defensive rebound? Even say late in the first half? They probably should from a tactical stand point. But I wonder if, at the college level, there is a gentleman's agreement not put poor foul shooters in the spotlight like that.
Click to expand...
No gentleman's agreement you don't want to commit unnecessary fouls that can come back to haunt you in the second half
 
A

Anon1751594821

All-Conference
Jul 28, 2001
2,555
2,358
0
We lost the game at the Garden against Wisconsin by NOT fouling Happ.

He was like a 60% foul shooter and we should have fouled him almost every time late in that game and did not. It was a bad job by our coaches on that day.

Best of Luck,
Groz
 
D

Doctor Worm

Heisman
Feb 7, 2002
30,410
22,340
113
Greene Rice FIG said:
Anything north of a 60% shooter puts the expected defensive points per possession over 1.0 and puts the foul count closer to 10.
Click to expand...
Correct. To work out the math, if you foul a 60% shooter in a one-and-one situation, here's the expected values:

Probability of 0 points: 40%
Probability of 1 point: 24%
Probability of 2 points: 36%

Expected value = (1 * .24) + (2*.36) = .96 points for the possession. Although actually it's a bit higher than that, because of the possibility of a putback off an offensive rebound.

If you foul a 70% shooter in a one-and-one, the expected value (ignoring offensive rebounds) is 1.19 points for the possession.

Conversely, if you foul a 50% shooter, it's only .75 points for the possession.
 
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G

Greene Rice FIG

Heisman
Dec 30, 2005
40,437
23,613
0
Knight Owl said:
They should permit teams to decline free throws and just get an inbound instead. Would keep poor foul shooters from being forced to shoot them, would speed up the game and make coaching strategy even more important.
Click to expand...
They should get rid of the 3 point shot too!
 
A

Anon1751594821

All-Conference
Jul 28, 2001
2,555
2,358
0
zappaa said:
They should add the DH
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LOL. Along those lines, in changing sports, I always thought that there should be a "power play" type of situation in college football. Ohio State should only be allowed to have 9 or 10 players on the field at all times against our 11 to make the games more fair.

Best of Luck,
Groz
 
K

Knight Owl

All-Conference
Jul 27, 2001
3,536
2,580
0
Doctor Worm said:
Correct. To work out the math, if you foul a 60% shooter in a one-and-one situation, here's the expected values:

Probability of 0 points: 40%
Probability of 1 point: 24%
Probability of 2 points: 36%

Expected value = (1 * .24) + (2*.36) = .96 points for the possession. Although actually it's a bit higher than that, because of the possibility of a putback off an offensive rebound.

If you foul a 70% shooter in a one-and-one, the expected value (ignoring offensive rebounds) is 1.19 points for the possession.

Conversely, if you foul a 50% shooter, it's only .75 points for the possession.
Click to expand...
Yeah...and a 40% FT shooter (Myles is around this number) is .56 per possession!
‘Elam ending’ is the turn the clock off rule in last four minutes which seems silly to me.
 
N

NickRU714

Heisman
Aug 18, 2009
14,086
12,886
113
Fans and media lost their minds over “Hack A Shaq” and wanted the rules changed.

Should absolutely be a strategy.
Make players learn to be better foul shooters.

It’s actually really funny watching certain players change their style towards the end of games because they don’t want to be fouled.
 
R

rubaseball78_rivals

Heisman
Sep 29, 2005
14,051
16,131
0
Greene Rice FIG said:
They should get rid of the 3 point shot too!
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I'm not a big fan of the 3 pt shot. Started in the ABA as a gimic to attract fans versus the NBA. I do wish they had it though when I played because I could shoot from outside (50%+). Played during a time with no 3 pt shot and weren't allowed to dunk. So I didn't get to do either. The no dunk rule actually helped big men develop in that they had to learn to actually shoot rather than just dunk.
 
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A

Anon1751594821

All-Conference
Jul 28, 2001
2,555
2,358
0
Greene Rice FIG said:
Please no! Please no!

you aren’t for this are you?

the stupid 3 batter rule?

give teams 3 minutes to make a pitching change and be done with it. Love chess with 25 players (hate 26)
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FIG,

You are one of those traditionalists where you enjoy the pitchers batting and making out after out and then occasionally one gets a hit and you say, see "that is how baseball is played". There is no good reason why pitchers should hit.

Chess? 10 and 15 years ago, Torre and even Girardi would play the same position players, game after game. It used to be that the catchers would get a rest. Now almost every player in baseball gets 1 game off a week, plus their off day.

Lebron James can play 38 minutes a game, but let's give baseball players a day off. They are tired........

Best of Luck,
Groz
 
G

GoodOl'Rutgers

Heisman
Sep 11, 2006
123,974
19,586
0
zappaa said:
Not sure what that means?
Without using statistics and percentages, would your heart sink if on fouls 7,,8 and 9 with 4 minutes to go in the game down 5, the opposition fouled Myles?
My guess is you’re thinking MJ is an anomaly at this level and even a bad free throw shooter at 60%, using this strategy will work against you in the long run.
Obviously I bring it up because the two dagger 3s by Caleb were after front end misses
Click to expand...
I think what he is saying is that, team-wide, average shooting percentag is 50%.. in fact, out team FG% is 46%.. but that includes 3point attempts too.. I think. In any case, that means the average offense possession that results in one shot attempt yields 1 point... so if they hit the front end and miss the 2nd or get 2 and make only 1.. that is the expected return for a posession... and is stil better than missing a shot and the defnse rebounds.

You'd really have to dig in on stats for a team to show badly a missed front-end really hurts. Yes.. its like a TO.. but it is also like your average missed shot.
 
G

Greene Rice FIG

Heisman
Dec 30, 2005
40,437
23,613
0
Groz said:
I'm not talking 1998 when they had Chad Curtis and Strawberry, etc. and were platooning. I'm talking the last few years of Torre and when the core were playing for Girardi.

Best of Luck,
Groz
Click to expand...
Is that when the NY$ stop winning?
 
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