Iowa is winnable
- Thread starter knight82
- Start date
I get what you're saying, but the kids are human. They needed a win during their losing streak; they don't "need" this win. I just think they'll have a let down, and Iowa is a very good team. I hope I'm wrong. RU is certainly capable of beating them.
They might not have a great game. But it won't be because they don't want to win.
If the game meant absolutely nothing, they'd still want to win but the effort level might fall off some. But the game obviously means a lot to both teams. All our remaining games mean a lot to RU. The players want to make the tournament and want to get as high a seed as possible.
Winning out is a very tall order just from a probability stand point. Let's make it simple and say we have a (probably inflated on some of these) 70% chance of winning at home vs Northwestern, Indiana, and Maryland; a 80% chance of winning at Nebraska; a 30% chance of winning at Michigan (assume their conditioning and game play is off from the layoff); and a 40% chance of winning at Iowa and at Minnesota. The odds of sweeping them all are: 0.7 * 0.7 * 0.7 * 0.8 * 0.3 * 0.4 * 0.4 = 1.3%.
Let's be far more optimistic and say we are 80% likely to win each home game plus Nebraska and bump Michigan, Iowa and Minnesota to 50% each. The odds are still only 0.8^4 * 0.5^3, or 5.1%.
At this point it is very very optimistic to hope to win out.
Beat Iowa!
Let's be far more optimistic and say we are 80% likely to win each home game plus Nebraska and bump Michigan, Iowa and Minnesota to 50% each. The odds are still only 0.8^4 * 0.5^3, or 5.1%.
At this point it is very very optimistic to hope to win out.
Beat Iowa!
I personally think OSU Is the best team RU has played this year. Iowa will rightfully be favored, but RU definitely can win this.
But let's say we beat both Iowa and UM. Doesn't that increase our odds of beating the rest based on past performance?
Also you're coming up with our odds of winning based on past performance. And past performance does not guarantee future results. If we put everything together starting next Wednesday, why would our odds of victory be less than 50% against any remaining teams? Or higher?
Better odds for you with that expectation than my expectation that Kate Beckinsale will be paying me a visit tonight in her Underworld outfit. But I am feeling optimistic in both cases.
I don't want to see Myles doubling a guard at the 3 point line vs Iowa. I suspect that was a unique twist designed for Marcus Carr. We need a different plan for Luca. Iowa did not get their typical home-cooking from refs hosting Ohio State. I fear there may be a makeup for that.
Probably.
But I'm taking a shower and wearing my best gym shorts and sweatshirt. Just in case.
forget it. She's on her way to my placeProbably.
But I'm taking a shower and wearing my best gym shorts and sweatshirt. Just in case.
People said that after the first loss, then the second, and now the third. Are you sure about that?
Start Doucore.. really confuse them.. bring in Myles/Cliff after 3 minutes for rest of game
Historically, we've seen Iowa get so many calls and FTs against us... scary numbers.. with Garza maybe geting 1 whistle a game. I am fearful... especially if we see Boroski there.
Historically, we've seen Iowa get so many calls and FTs against us... scary numbers.. with Garza maybe geting 1 whistle a game. I am fearful... especially if we see Boroski there.
Lol. Well, jedi mind tricks? Not exactly... However, I actually do believe in the reverse jinx which is why I always predict RU to lose in almost every game unless the talent differential is huge (Fairleigh Dickinson for basketball and Morgan State for football).
With that being said, Iowa wins 84-70.
We have to keep control of the pace of the game. That does not mean play at a consistently slow pace but push only when the opportunity presents itself. We need to shoot it pretty well to preclude transition breakouts by Iowa. Breakeven on the glass and hope Iowa does not shoot lights out and a we get a fair whistle. Ideally the winner only scores in the low seventies.