At 9-11 with a first round conf tourney exit, our NET would not be very good at all with a 13-12 record. It’s all relative to what other teams do, but I’m not sure how your thinking we’d be “lock” status regardless of which 3 wins we’d pick up.
Lunardi/Palm
- Thread starter bac2therac
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At 9-11 with a first round conf tourney exit, our NET would not be very good at all with a 13-12 record. It’s all relative to what other teams do, but I’m not sure how your thinking we’d be “lock” status regardless of which 3 wins we’d pick up.
I wish people would not be looking so far ahead. In my opinion we only should be looking at tomorrow night vs Minnesota. Please one game at a time. We don't need our players reading how great we are. They just need to keep working. If they keep working hard and stay healthy good things should happen.
Try to look at Rutgers in a vacuum. The bubble is very weak. It is not easy to find enough teams with a better resume than us, if we go 9-11. 10-10 is a lock.
people should be looking ahead only to the extent of realizing there is still a great deal of work to be done. Every game matters.
It’s funny. I see the bubble the complete opposite way this year. Since there were so few OOC games period, gaudy mid-major records figure to carry more weight than usual because there is less results-based evidence that major conference teams are better if the computer numbers say otherwise. Simply put - this is not the year we want a NET in the 60s.
Syracuse is the one sort of wild card going for us. Huge game for them tonight. No opponent helps us more than they do IMO by winning.
I don’t see why we can’t win at Iowa. We should win most or all of our home games, and at Nebraska.
At Michigan, could be tough, may have to wait to finally break streak at Packed RAC next year.
Minnesota should be a split, wherever the win comes.
I think we win at least 5 going down the stretch, and avoid a dangerous 7-10 matchup with a 6 seed
At Michigan, could be tough, may have to wait to finally break streak at Packed RAC next year.
Minnesota should be a split, wherever the win comes.
I think we win at least 5 going down the stretch, and avoid a dangerous 7-10 matchup with a 6 seed
Remember when we kicked the sh*t out of iowa in 2019? Iowa was no as good then but still ranked. We were also not as good as we are now.
We can beat any team we play on any given night. We could easily lose in the first round of the tournament or i can see a scenario where Ron gets hot like he was early in conference play and make it to the final four.
maybe. I’m thinking the computer numbers may help the middle of the road conferences like the MWC and the A-10 more than usual this year. But who knows.
I don’t think anyone’s getting in with a NET above 60 which is where RU would be without finishing 500 in the league based on the games that remain. Bottom line is we need to keep winning.
you have no idea what RUs net would be at 9-11, I would say its better than 60 easily
Looking at the NET now for the MWC:
Boise State 19
San Diego State 26
Colorado State 44
Utah State 54
Nevada 123
Only four teams are in position to finish in the top 60. The MWC had two teams in the 2019 bracket. Two is a sure thing now, and they have a shot at a 3rd with an outside shot at a 4th strictly based on NET.
Now the A-10:
St. Bonaventure 33
Saint Louis 38
VCU 45
Richmond 52
Davidson 65
I can't see them getting past four, and even that does not look like a sure thing. They landed two bids in 2019, too.
But before we give a 3rd or 4th bid to those leagues, the Big Ten has 11 teams at #48 or better. It is hard to justify a 4th MWC or A-10 team being included above a 10th B1G team if those trends hold.
Syracuse vs Louisville postponed, seems Louisville players tested positive after landing in Syracuse & are now heading home.
9-11 is dangerous because a big ten first round loss puts you at 9-12/13-12...and winning only 4 of last 10. That is the bubble ledge
Let’s win tomorrow so we can stop the bubble ledge concerns for a while
Let’s win tomorrow so we can stop the bubble ledge concerns for a while
13-12 (which would mean a first round BIG tourney exit in an outbracket game) would not result in a top 60 NET. We’d go into the BIG tourney with a must win situation for sure. The remaining schedule just seems too paper soft for the magic number to be 3. What combination are you thinking could do the trick? Any Q3 loss would figure to necessitate a 4th win. But a marquis win vs Iowa or Michigan with only the 2 Q3 wins would mean 3 home losses to fringe tourney teams in Maryland, Indiana and Minnesota. That wouldn’t be good either.
This mindset is a repeat of last year. Rutgers could be undefeated in the B1G, yet fans will call them a bubble team. Once again, people can't look at Rutgers in a bubble. Consider what other teams similar to Rutgers are doing to get a better idea of where Rutgers might land. People overlook that the B1G is the bests conference, and Rutgers is in the top half of it. As long as Rutgers maintains its position, they are in the tourney based on NET, SOS, and record. There is a reason why 6-8 Penn State is ahead of 13-3 UCLA, 11-2 Xavier, or 13-5 Creighton in the NET ranking. It's not by accident. Rutgers is inside of the 30 NET because their body of work and schedule merits it. Btw, those three teams I've mentioned behind Penn State are from other power conferences. That says a lot about the respect the B1G receives.
Yes - there is a reason. Penn State is one of very few teams that played a ridiculous OOC schedule and did well. They went to V-Tech and won. They beat VCU and lost a close game vs. Seton Hall (which is currently their only Q2 loss). That’s what I’m trying to say here. Remember when we lost at Michigan State - the NET tanked. Losing more Q2 games will have a bigger impact on the computer numbers this year for everyone. That includes Penn State but the difference is the schedule. PSU’s BIG slate is just insane. Home and homes vs Michigan, Illinois, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Purdue (only one game against Nebraska and NW - both at home) is just nuts. If anyone deserves to get in with only 9 wins in would be them IMO.
Did I miss something? Did Rutgers play a different set of B1G teams than PSU? Somehow Rutgers is ahead of PSU in all of the metrics used to measure teams' chances to get into the tourney. Rutgers fans have to stop this the world is falling approach (losing mentality).
Rutgers record (Quad):
Quad 1: 4-5 Only 6 teams have more quad 1 wins than Rutgers.
Quad 2: 2-1 with the MSU loss
Quad 3: 2-0
Quad 4: 2-0
We’re not talking about current SOS. At the end of the regular season, Penn State will have played a harder unbalanced BIG schedule than RU. This isn’t remotely debatable. They play Michigan, Illinois, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Purdue twice (teams in the top half of the standings). Of these teams we only play Ohio State and Iowa twice. PSU only gets to play the 3 bottom teams Nebraska, Michigan State and NW once (we play 2 of 3 twice). So yeah - 9-11 would mean more with their schedule than it would with ours. The conference schedules are not even.
You can't pick the parts of the debate to address your agenda and act as if the rest of the facts don't matter. Ok, let's play your game:
Early in the season, NW was ranked, which was considered difficult. Now that the wheels came off, Rutgers doesn't get credit. Therefore it counts against them.
MSU was ranked top 5 at the start of the season, and Rutgers had to play them twice. Later we find out MSU is not as good of a team. Now we get no credit for it, according to you.
Seton Hall ditched us to play PSU, thinking it was an easy win. We got screwed, and PSU was the beneficiary of it.
Last year Rutgers played a more difficult B1G conference schedule and still finished ahead of PSU. This year Rutgers will finish ahead of PSU once again. The bottom line is PSU is not good overall regardless of how you view their schedule's difficulty.
What are you talking about? On Selection Sunday the only thing that ever matters is your resume and computer numbers at that point in time. We have a way better resume that PSU right now. Nobody ever said otherwise. If they were to win 6 more games to close out the season and we only win 3 more games that might not be the case anymore.
Also - I’m sure PSU wishes they didn’t play Seton Hall this year as they lost that game.