OT: Major Winter Storm for Philly-NJ-NYC Area (12-24" very likely) for late Sun (1/31) into Tues (2/2)

[WhiteBus]

you guys are like 50/50 for getting in on the big snows...some of the models really deck you with 20 inches plus yet others are half that.
I dont think you will see much rain until the lighter precip moves in...and I think the snow over night will be at a lighter clip, tomorrow morning when it really gets cranking

Watching local news. Snow/rain line just about to hit Cape May. Earlier forecast then this morning

 

[knightfan7]

Now I know it's going to be bad. Just received a text from the town saying that there'll be no garbage pick up tomorrow.

 

[knightfan7]

We're just starting to get a few flakes drifting down here: there might be something to this snow squall.

What time should we all show up for the French Toast feast?

 

[mdk02]

I know a long way to go and tomorrow is the main show but we are at just a 1/2 inch here. Debating staying up till 11ish and doing first shovel or going to bed early and getting up in the early am for round 1. If we do get 12 its a few rounds of shoveling. And will we get rain?

Depends on the wind. If it's windy at 10-10:30 why bother?

 

[DJ Spanky]

I've already gotten out the shovels, we've been inundated! Took this at 6:48 PM:

 

[WhiteBus]

Depends on the wind. If it's windy at 10-10:30 why bother?

If it stays in the 20s I agree with you. But if the rain moves up here than thats a big difference. Heavy wet snow.

 

[tom1944]

I know a long way to go and tomorrow is the main show but we are at just a 1/2 inch here. Debating staying up till 11ish and doing first shovel or going to bed early and getting up in the early am for round 1. If we do get 12 its a few rounds of shoveling. And will we get rain?

I just hired the neighbors kid. He has a quad with a plow. He will start Tuesday morning

 

[RutgersK1d]

Very light snow. Just starting to coat the ground in JC.

JC? Jersey City? You should have more than a coating by now

 

[Rutgers1976]

Just had the dog out. About 2" on the ground here just off 34 in Wall. Dog is very pleased.

 

[Loyal_2RU]

Knew I forgot something. Just put air in my snow thrower tires. Was under 10psi, should be 20...

 

[WhiteBus]

I just hired the neighbors kid. He has a quad with a plow. He will start Tuesday morning

I have 30+ feet of sidewalk to shovel. Mine and my 80 year old neighbor. I'm good. Plus you can't wait until till Tuesday in the city. But I have no driveway ...bonus

 

[Sweet Pea's Corner]

Just got back from getting takeout (Woodstack in Metuchen - really good flatbreads, pastas and specialty dishes). Roads getting pretty bad as we now have 2.25" as of 6 pm (3/4" the last hour), which is definitely beyond what was expected now (<1" on all models). Still 24F and snowing moderately - big fluffy flakes, so I'm guessing our snow/liquid ratio is at least 15:1 (usually about 10:1 here).

What.... no ground meat left?????

 

[Jjnik]

we have about 2.5 inches in Belle Mead...off to a surprising head start

A bit over 3.25” in my part of Belle Mead (Montgomery Township, just south of Township Line Road) - way more than we were supposed to have by now!

 

[Doteman]

About 2” in pway

 

[WhiteBus]

BTW a shoveling tip. Do not bring you shovel indoors. Put it outside and get it to the temps outdoors. Otherwise snow will constantly stick to it.

 

[DJ Spanky]

What.... no ground meat left?????

He stocked up with 40 pounds last week.

 

[goru1869]

Making mac and cheese now so my belly stays warm when out plowing.

Put extra , extra cheese in it .

 

[goru1869]

Haha thanks
Peanut butter cookies with Hershey kisses.
Now making some broccoli and cavatelli.

Chocolate chip is my thing , but I have to say your PB cookies with the kisses sound great !
The dinner thingy also looks good .

 

[Postman_1]

Just went for a walk in Hamilton. About 2” on the ground. Almost feel a little mixing coming in. Mainly snow though Hopefully not too much of a mix. That will suck to shovel.

 

[tom1944]

I have 30+ feet of sidewalk to shovel. Mine and my 80 year old neighbor. I'm good. Plus you can't wait until till Tuesday in the city. But I have no driveway ...bonus

My driveway is over 150 feet long and is very wide at the top. About 30×30.

 

[RU848789]

Just got back from getting takeout (Woodstack in Metuchen - really good flatbreads, pastas and specialty dishes). Roads getting pretty bad as we now have 2.25" as of 6 pm (3/4" the last hour), which is definitely beyond what was expected now (<1" on all models). Still 24F and snowing moderately - big fluffy flakes, so I'm guessing our snow/liquid ratio is at least 15:1 (usually about 10:1 here).

And up to 2.75" OTG in Metuchen at 7 pm at 23F. Time for RU hoops...

 

[WhiteBus]

Wind from calm to crazy in minutes. Also snow has stopped for now. Must be a dry slot.

 

[RUScrew85]

Knew I forgot something. Just put air in my snow thrower tires. Was under 10psi, should be 20...

That should do it. Storm jinxed.

 

[RUMcMahon]

~2.5 on pavement in Jackson . Keep that R/S line south!

 

[RU848789]

Very nice. You're only a bit below the NWS but I'd say you're in line with most others with the 12-18" general forecast for essentially N of 276/195 (except right at the coast). Even the NWS has the 18-24" color for most of the same locations as your 12-18", but if you look at the numbers most of those are 18-21", so it's actually pretty close. TWC looks to be the most bullish which is unusual and Channel 7 is the least bullish.

Figured I'd make a post with the snowfall maps from the NWS and some others, including yours. Here they are. I think the NWS-Philly is about to update theirs, so will update when they do. As I've been saying, I think 12" or more is nearly a lock for N of 276/195 and 18-24" is going to be common anywhere that sleet/rain doesn't mix in, which is most likely north of the Raritan/202 (and maybe NW Monmouth) and especially N of 78. And I still think the 12" line is likely to be around Philly to Howell. The very hard part is SE of that line where a fair amount of rain (and some sleet) is much more likely, which could have a huge impact on snowfall amounts.

Edit - NWS-Philly finally updated their map - only minor changes...

7:30 pm Edit - NWS finally added the regional map below, including the updates from Philly and NYC...

And this is our own RUJohnny's forecast...

And the last one here is for our Freeze-o-philes...

Bumping this in case folks didn't see and since the NWS finally updated their regional snowfall map, which is very nicely done visually with NJ and parts of all nearby states. RU up 10-2 early which is cool

 

[RU848789]

Just went for a walk in Hamilton. About 2” on the ground. Almost feel a little mixing coming in. Mainly snow though Hopefully not too much of a mix. That will suck to shovel.

Doubt you mix at all or at least not until 3/4 of the storm is over and you have over a foot. Confluence (cold air source) is nearly perfect.

 

[tom1944]

~2.5 on pavement in Jackson . Keep that R/S line south!

Jackson is so spread out at 100 square miles we have different totals depending on if you are east, west,north or south

 

[RUSK97]

3 inches in Warren. Calm right now before the storm.

 

[zappaa]

Doubt you mix at all or at least not until 3/4 of the storm is over and you have over a foot. Confluence (cold air source) is nearly perfect.

I’m sick of you being right

 

[Postman_1]

Doubt you mix at all or at least not until 3/4 of the storm is over and you have over a foot. Confluence (cold air source) is nearly perfect.

Yeah now all snow. When I was walking was a little mix. Bring on the snow

 

[RU848789]

28-11!!

 

[RU848789]

28-11!!

I'm sorry, make that 31-11. After 67-37 against MSU can we make this one 75-33? :>)

 

[Zak57]

Who wants to tell him?

 

[Rutgers Chris]

Who wants to tell him?

 

[Rutgers Chris]

Think there’s a post on the game thread about a model update?

 

[RUSK97]

They’re on a run. Cut em off at the knees

 

[rurichdog]

A pretty healthy band of snow has been rolling northward just south of Trenton for a bit.

 

[T2Kplus20]

He stocked up with 40 pounds last week.

But, but, but, he has one son and they eat 40lbs of ground beef every week!

 

[RUJohnny]

Very nice. You're only a bit below the NWS but I'd say you're in line with most others with the 12-18" general forecast for essentially N of 276/195 (except right at the coast). Even the NWS has the 18-24" color for most of the same locations as your 12-18", but if you look at the numbers most of those are 18-21", so it's actually pretty close. TWC looks to be the most bullish which is unusual and Channel 7 is the least bullish.

Figured I'd make a post with the snowfall maps from the NWS and some others, including yours. Here they are. I think the NWS-Philly is about to update theirs, so will update when they do. As I've been saying, I think 12" or more is nearly a lock for N of 276/195 and 18-24" is going to be common anywhere that sleet/rain doesn't mix in, which is most likely north of the Raritan/202 (and maybe NW Monmouth) and especially N of 78. And I still think the 12" line is likely to be around Philly to Howell. The very hard part is SE of that line where a fair amount of rain (and some sleet) is much more likely, which could have a huge impact on snowfall amounts.

Edit - NWS-Philly finally updated their map - only minor changes...

7:30 pm Edit - NWS finally added the regional map below, including the updates from Philly and NYC...

And this is our own RUJohnny's forecast...

And the last one here is for our Freeze-o-philes...

6-12 in eastern Bergen and the Bronx? There's only a few million people there that she will likely whiff by a foot for. Yikes.

 

[Postman_1]

A pretty healthy band of snow has been rolling northward just south of Trenton for a bit.

Yeah coming down harder in Hamilton now.