OT: Major West Coast winter storm where some will see over 150 inches of snow

[bac2therac]

No, that was posted last night and should be taken down, as it's out of date. Right now the heaviest snows look to be from 95 towards the coast with little to no rain/mixing, as per the 5 am NWS snowfall map I posted. Of course, that can change, but the map you linked to is way out of date.

agree not sure where they are getting the mixing from but definitely the idea that 95 is the battlground for where the cutoffs of the heavier amounts are

 

[RU848789]

the main show is Monday afternoon overnight into Tuesday morning, if this holds you might be going into work

True that most of the snow comes after lunch on Monday, but every model has at least 1-2" on the ground by 7 am Monday with snow falling, so there will be some cancellations on Monday - if the models are correct.

 

[RU848789]

agree not sure where they are getting the mixing from but definitely the idea that 95 is the battlground for where the cutoffs of the heavier amounts are

that's absolutely correct - NWS needs to take that graphic down...

 

[CERU00]

Possibly as early as late Sunday afternoon but some models not until wee early Monday morning. Its a longer duration event that will last into Tuesday

They ALWAYS get the end time wrong. I mean the totals are usually wrong as well but snow storms always end earlier than predicted.

 

[RU848789]

NWS-Philly just issued winter storm watches for the potential of 7"+ for the counties in blue, i.e., along and SE of 95 (they don't cover NE of Middlesex, which is why watches aren't up yet for NENJ/NYC - they likely will be, at least for NYC). This does not mean areas NW of 95 won't get a significant to even major snowstorm, but confidence right now isn't high enough for a watch for those areas, as all models have the 95 corridor and SE to the coast getting 6" (and more) of snow, while only some models have areas 25-50 miles NW of 95 getting 6" of snow. Watches also up for a lot of MD/VA/DC/Balt.

 

[Plum Street]

NWS-Philly just issued winter storm watches for the potential of 7"+ for the counties in blue, i.e., along and SE of 95 (they don't cover NE of Middlesex, which is why watches aren't up yet for NENJ/NYC - they likely will be, at least for NYC). Watches also up for a lot of MD/VA/DC/Balt.

Looks like all of middlesex is blue in that map? Looks like the shore takes the big hit as of now

 

[e5fdny]

Looks like all of middlesex is blue in that map? Looks like the shore takes the big hit as of now

 

[RUPete]

They ALWAYS get the end time wrong. I mean the totals are usually wrong as well but snow storms always end earlier than predicted.

Agree. I think the models tend to overdo "long duration" events

 

[bac2therac]

NAM looks somewhat similar to the Euro...could there be some consensus on the heaviest amounts south and east of 95...with moderate amounts but not heavy for those just to the west of 95 like somerset, morris, hunterdon

 

[Plum Street]

I never understood the south and north of 95 terminology since the road runs north south and

 

[e5fdny]

I never understood the south and north of 95 terminology since the road runs north south

But not straight. With the slant it makes it easy to do the N/S thing.

 

[Plum Street]

But not straight. With the slant it makes it easy to do the N/S thing.

Yes, I know it goes northeast and south west. . So you can only be south and north at the curve ? It makes a hard bend around the raritan. .

 

[Retired711]

But not straight. With the slant it makes it easy to do the N/S thing.

In South Jersey, the turnpike is not I-95; rather, the expressway in Philly is. But I've been advised by NWS that the two can both be treated as I-95 because the difference between the two roads is only about 10-15 miles or so.

 

[goru1869]

In South Jersey, the turnpike is not I-95; rather, the expressway in Philly is. But I've been advised by NWS that the two can both be treated as I-95 because the difference between the two roads is only about 10-15 miles or so.

Incredible how many people don't know this.

 

[Postman_1]

Icon went North. I just saw this on AmericanWX. How can there be this much disagreement between models?

 

[anon_ivydyf0amkzay]

It’s weather shopping time! Pick the model that suits your wish and go with it!

if I still lived in NY that icon model run would have severely depressed me!

 

[e5fdny]

In South Jersey, the turnpike is not I-95; rather, the expressway in Philly is. But I've been advised by NWS that the two can both be treated as I-95 because the difference between the two roads is only about 10-15 miles or so.

Incredible how many people don't know this.

The signage around Trenton for this can confuse people too.

 

[anon_ivydyf0amkzay]

I hope the bullseye is over RU#s house...he’d be like a kin on Christmas morning...

maybe some training thundersnows and 20+

 

[bac2therac]

Icon went North. I just saw this on AmericanWX. How can there be this much disagreement between models?

the ICon model should be banned. Its by far the worst model out there and those weather sites should know better than to allow so many posts on that board.

 

[RUScrew85]

Yes, I know it goes northeast and south west. . So you can only be south and north at the curve ? It makes a hard bend around the raritan. .

So agree. Just rubs me the wrong way for some reason. Doesn't fit in my mental model.

 

[Postman_1]

the ICon model should be banned. Its by far the worst model out there and those weather sites should know better than to allow so many posts on that board.

It’s the CNN of weather models is what your telling me? What model is the best now? I know the Euro was or still may be.

 

[RUScrew85]

Incredible how many people don't know this.

Have you driven the roads around Trenton? 295, 95, one of them North turns into the other Southbound - giant circular bypass around Trenton. It's a disaster. Plus when I was growing up the NJTP had signs that identified it as 95.

 

[RUJohnny]

@RU848789 you asked me to post my forecast, let me know if this works. I'd paste all the text here but I like the pretty pictures
Cifelli Forecast

 

[RUJohnny]

Have you driven the roads around Trenton? 295, 95, one of them North turns into the other Southbound - giant circular bypass around Trenton. It's a disaster. Plus when I was growing up the NJTP had signs that identified it as 95.

Grew up in Ewing. Missed curfew more than once after getting on the highway in the wrong direction more than once.

 

[Retired711]

Have you driven the roads around Trenton? 295, 95, one of them North turns into the other Southbound - giant circular bypass around Trenton. It's a disaster. Plus when I was growing up the NJTP had signs that identified it as 95.

It's not as bad as it used to be. Now the change between 95 and 295 happens around the NJ-PA state line. Formerly the change happened at Route 1.

 

[Tango Two]

NWS

Here's our latest forecast snow totals for the long-duration winter storm forecast to impact the area Sunday through early Tuesday. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the I-95 corridor and points south/east toward the coast. View the latest briefing here:

https://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf

 

[RUJohnny]

NWS

Here's our latest forecast snow totals for the long-duration winter storm forecast to impact the area Sunday through early Tuesday. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the I-95 corridor and points south/east toward the coast. View the latest briefing here:

https://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf

That confidence/impacts graphic is nice.

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

Fierce cold wind all day

 

[Loyal_2RU]

@RU848789 you asked me to post my forecast, let me know if this works. I'd paste all the text here but I like the pretty pictures
Cifelli Forecast

Thank you

 

[Tango Two]

That confidence/impacts graphic is nice.

The whole briefing package graphics are nice

 

[Postman_1]

Wow latest GFS run just crushed central Jersey

 

[RUHotTrumpetMonkeyLove]

NWS

Here's our latest forecast snow totals for the long-duration winter storm forecast to impact the area Sunday through early Tuesday. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the I-95 corridor and points south/east toward the coast. View the latest briefing here:

https://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf

Shouldn't the "X" be one box to the right? Moderate Confidence and Significant Impact

 

[WhiteBus]

6ABC Philly has this over faster by Monday night. 1-3 Cape May. 3-6 up to Philly. 6-9 NW of Philly. Does talk about a shift South but only effects the shore mostly more.

 

[RU848789]

@RU848789 you asked me to post my forecast, let me know if this works. I'd paste all the text here but I like the pretty pictures
Cifelli Forecast

This is great! I probably agree with 99% of what you posted and will take the liberty of pasting your bottom line, as I think it aligns well with what many pros are thinking. Although I didn't post it here, I posted something similar to your sensitivity discussion on 33andrain with regard to the sensitivity of Miller B setups (although yours is better, lol), where things have to happen nearly perfectly to get a big NE city storm. The low approaching from the west should still be strong enough to give much of VA/MD/PA east to about the Delaware River many inches of snow (and maybe more than a foot as the low will be stronger out there), as it doesn't rely on the point/timing of the secondary cyclogenesis off the coast, so that first part is easier to predict.

But if the coastal doesn't work out right (a higher probability in any Miller B), then the snows shown on the models from about Philly NE through NJ/NYC/LI and New England, along 95 and NW of there are at some risk, while the snows SE of 95 to the coast are more likely (but also not certain yet). So, the floor is higher and the ceiling lower for areas to our SW and W, while the floor is lower, but the ceiling higher (last night's CMC) for the Philly-NJ-NYC-NE folks. And I agree Monmouth looks like the NJ jackpot if I had to guess now. That's where @bac2therac's favorite poster, PB GFI, on 33andrain lives, lol.

Also loved the post-mortem on Jan-15. Will try to dig mine up, since the board only goes back to 2016, but I've been doing emails on storms since the late 90s. Surprised you didn't mention the GFS in that one - it was the one showing the low forming further east with a lot less snow for most of NJ and it was what TWC used primarily, which is why they were one of the few outfits predicting "only" 8-12" for the 95 corridor, iirc (vs. the 18-24" from most forecasters for the 95 corridor from Trenton to NYC - we got 7" in Metuchen).

So, I am cautious for the time being. I don't think this storm comes further north than currently projected and so rain/mixing is not likely away from the coast and far southern NJ. If this forecast needed room for error, it would be to the south/east which would result in less snow north and west, and a bigger event for the coast. There are lots of ways for that to happen- less energy over the Plains enters the Ohio Valley trough, the PV lobe over New England pushes stronger or further south, or the next system off the west coast nudges the Rocky Mountain ridge eastward a little faster. Lots of moving parts.

For now I am comfortable saying that conditions will deteriorate between 3 and 9pm Sunday beginning in southern NJ, and that the axis of heaviest snow will be more than 8 inches. Best bet right now is along and southeast of the Turnpike. I like somewhere in Monmouth County to be the jackpot right now, 48 hours out. Monday morning looks to be the peak of the storm for the moment.

 

[RU848789]

Here's the brand new NWS-Philly map and the one from this morning - they've seen the 12Z models - also, this map is only through 7 pm Monday and more snow falls after that, especially for CNJ/NNJ/NYC. I also included the NWS regional map. I like that this time (as opposed to 12/16) they're starting out conservative instead of very bullish. Always seems better to show a major snow is possible and then go up if it looks huge than to promise huge and have to halve forecast amounts closer to the storm.

 

[RU848789]

In South Jersey, the turnpike is not I-95; rather, the expressway in Philly is. But I've been advised by NWS that the two can both be treated as I-95 because the difference between the two roads is only about 10-15 miles or so.

Yep - the best way to look at it, for me, is to use the Delaware River SW of Trenton and then to split the difference between 1 and the NJTPK up to Edison and then the TPK NE of there to NYC. Or just draw a mental line from Philly to NYC. It's a corridor so it's a good 10-15 miles on either side, although there can sometimes be a big snowfall difference between Marlton and Conshohocken (20 miles) - I know, I spent my first 18 years on the SE side of that corridor in the Turnersville area.

 

[bac2therac]

A good very early call for most of CJ up northeast to nyc is 5-10 with 6-12 down through Monmouth to coast..3-6 northern parts of state away from the coast

We can then adjust up or down as the models come to a consensus

 

[goru1869]

Have you driven the roads around Trenton? 295, 95, one of them North turns into the other Southbound - giant circular bypass around Trenton. It's a disaster. Plus when I was growing up the NJTP had signs that identified it as 95.

Yes I have been on those roads often. My friends and I used 95 to get to Philly to see the Mets and Giants many times when I lived in Green Brook . Rt. 22 west to the Somerville circle to 202 to Rt. 31 I think it was, to CRAP I forget, over the Delaware and straight to the stadium. It took us 1 1/2 hours. As far as 295 I have friends who live in Williamstown so no need to use the turnpike the whole way down. The signs I remember on the turnpike said ALT. 95 . Not only that there is a piece of paper called a map that points these things out.

 

[e5fdny]

I like this one the best...

Pretty please

 

[DJ Spanky]

It’s the CNN of weather models is what your telling me?

Oh, that's cold!