Best guess is sometime in April for healthy people under 65, who aren't in high risk occupations and have no significant underlying conditions (that includes me). So I figure 4 more months of this crap. Obviously, big variables are actual delivered supply and actual demand.
OT: COVID Science - Pfizer/Moderna vaccines >90% effective; Regeneron antibody cocktail looks very promising in phase II/III trial and more
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NY Times has an online "app" that provides an estimate of your place "in line" for the vaccine. I have no idea how accurate it is but as a healthy 58 year old with no pre-existing conditions and not working in one of the "essential" or high risk (healthcare) jobs, it says I have 268.7 million people ahead of me.
That's gonna be a long wait unless a lot of people opt out. Probably next summer.
NY Times Vaccine Tool
That's gonna be a long wait unless a lot of people opt out. Probably next summer.
NY Times Vaccine Tool
Now add J&J in January and Sanafi in February which equates to anyone who wants a vaccine in March/April can get it.
Half the state will have or had Covid by January with half not even knowing they had it.
That's a huge assumption. And remember stop looking at US population but world population. Not any vaccines will be US only. They will be spread out over the globe.
Just to add a bit more detail to this, after the 23MM health care workers and LTC residents, who will get the vaccine first, the next groups are going to be the 87MM "essential" workers, the 100MM people with underlying conditions and the 53MM people over 65. That sounds like 263MM people (including the 23MM in the first wave), but there's overlap (many over 65 and/or essential workers also have underlying conditions), so maybe that's 200MM overall (this is a WAG). The link below outlines all of this.
As I said above, I think we'll have doses for 150-200MM people (these are US doses) by the end of March, assuming AZ/J&J come through with approved vaccines by the end of January. The other factor is only 58% of people say they're going to get a vaccine, which I believe is a significant underestimate, as people will want the vaccine more, once they see it's safe and effective and many people are getting it. Even if 70% getting vaccines is the "right" number, that means maybe only 70% of those 200MM prioritized people (considering the overlaps) or 140MM will actually get the vaccine.
That's why I believe vaccines will start becoming available by the end of March for everyone else who wants one, given I think we'll have doses for 150-200MM people by the end of March. Of course, not all of the rest of the 70MM heathy people will be able to get vaccines all at once, but I'm guessing they will be able to by the end of April (upside is by late March if AZ/J&J come through by late Jan; downside May if they don't and/or there are any other major delays).
https://www.cnet.com/how-to/who-get...rst-cdc-priority-and-everything-else-we-know/
Like with everything, the US gets the lion share (and have already paid for it). Pfizer, J&J, Moderna, all US companies. The biggest economy in the world matters. Also, many other countries won't be able to distribute Pfizer and Moderna's vaccines, so more for us.
Yes. Likely sooner (perhaps 4th of July weekend).
I actually read both of your recent posts! Good logical analysis. End of March may be our inflection point with the virus.
And remember, J&J and Sanofi will be one shot vaccines. The supply will go twice as far as compared to Pfizer and Moderna.
Well to be confident in all that you have to assume there will be zero issues going forward, right? Let's say they hit 80-90% of the projections you have to figure out how much is for the U.S. Based on the current cut Pfizer allocated 50% of December allotment to USA. So for every projection of production divide by 4. (50% to the US and 2 doses reduce that by another 50%)
Wrong. Pfizer is a shared company project. The fact is that the US got half of current production. Great Britain already approved it. They have theirs in distribution already.
No, but this letter got a lot of play, also I dont believe that any health care officials specifically put out statements that condemed the protests as spreading event. Also Gov Murphy famously attended a protest in violation of his own gathering restrictions.
Will those first in line have a choice? Some have expressed reservations about the mRNA vaccines, as up until now, no commercially available vaccines have used mRNA.
J&J's vaccine has other advantages such as one shot, and is not based on mRNA.
Right. So, in your view, no health care officials issued statements encouraging the protests. Which is what I responded to in the first place.
Out of respect to numbers and other posters in this thread, I’ll refrain from further discussion on public health measures related to COVID to allow the scientific thread to continue.
It's not an equally shared project. Pfizer >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> BioNTech. They already announced where their supply is going over the next 3-4 months. Guess what, it is disproportionately going to us. Can't really argue about this.
Well, you will have a choice, but you will need to wait a few months for that choice.
Most Common Adverse Events
Reported (>2%)
Pfizer:
Fatigue (3.8%)
Headache (2.0%)
Moderna:
Fatigue (9.7%)
Myalgia (8.9%)
Arthralgia (5.2%)
Headache (4.5%)
Pain (4.1%)
This looks like a meaningful difference, but it may be just due to AE reporting protocols. Not sure yet.
Reported (>2%)
Pfizer:
Fatigue (3.8%)
Headache (2.0%)
Moderna:
Fatigue (9.7%)
Myalgia (8.9%)
Arthralgia (5.2%)
Headache (4.5%)
Pain (4.1%)
This looks like a meaningful difference, but it may be just due to AE reporting protocols. Not sure yet.
Stop being foolish. As per your post, you whined about competing with the rest of the world. The US represents 4% of the world population, but is getting about 50% of Pfizer doses. And FYI, even comparing us to the EU + GB, they have about 175 million more people. Once again, we are getting way over our "fair share".
Clueless. You over rate NJ over other states in football, sports. Hate the surrounding states but You are wrong. You are doing the same here. USA will not get the Lions share but an equal share. We found that out this week. Ignore it if must. But you are just being stupid. This isn't a US problem. It's a world problem. To think that all resources go mostly to the US is just a denial of fact.
Once several are available, presumably the market then takes over and people will have a choice. For Dec/Jan, at least, it's Pfizer or Moderna's mRNA vaccines and that's it.
The USA is already getting the lions share. You are already wrong. Case closed.
Do some math. The EU is already approved the vaccine. People will be getting the first shots tomorrow. Keep being a homer idiot.
@T2Kplus10 is right here (what's the world coming to, lol). The US is getting significantly more than its share based on population, which makes sense, since we're bankrolling quite a bit of the development/manufacturing this year, plus we've cultivated and encouraged vaccine/pharma research more than anyone else for decades and a decent chunk of the fundamental science that underlies these vaccines (which would NOT have been developed in under a year without years of R&D on SARS/MERS and countless vaccine technologies) has been supported financially by the US government for decades. That is part of the calculus here.
+1
Facts are facts. The US has already bought and paid for much of the supply we need. Don't understand why he is arguing about something that has already happened.
So generally when they are available pharmacies will be able to carry all of them?
I bet choice will be more theoretical than practical. I assume most hospitals and administration locations will only get 1 type of vaccine at a time. Sure, you can wait and seek out other options, but those will be further away (and there may be restrictions on who can go where).
So why do the numbers not support it. From a 100 million doses from Pfizer turns into less than 25% . Just 20 million max in the US by the end of this year. Yet they will be vaccinating people tomorrow in Europe. This isn't an Olympic event. It a world wide event with worldwide companies controlling distribution.
If both are available to you at the same time, do you have a preference for mRNA or the J&J vaccine, and if so, why?
Need to see the data on efficacy and safety on all of them to compare and we haven't seen all that yet. But if I could get one today, I'd get either mRNA vaccine in a heartbeat. But I'll have to wait 3-4 months and by then we'll have much more data.
Paid for? So why did we lose half of Pfizer first release. You are to stupid to understand that the US doesn't have a monopoly on private companies. Pfizer will fill there commitment on their terms not yours+1
Facts are facts. The US has already bought and paid for much of the supply we need. Don't understand why he is arguing about something that has already happened.
The Pfizer vaccine is safe and very effective. The side effect profile that I posted above is very clean. Assuming that the J&J vaccine has similar data, I would ask for that one just since it is only one shot. However, I'm not going to turn down the Pfizer vaccine just to wait for J&J.
Is the concern about mRNA is that the protection won't last as long as a normal vaccine?
I still believe a lot of this "pandemic" is hype, but it's time to end this crap. Everyone needs to get the vaccine ASAP.
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