Prediction time for 2020-2021 (types this last night after getting some of the OOC games
Last year ....I predicted a 20-11 record and a NCAA bid....
A lot of my premise on last year prediction came that the 14-17 record we had a couple of years ago, with maturity, could have just as easily been 17-14 and a NiT bid. The Iowa loss from the corner, the penn state loss at the end of the year, thiam’s arrest, and then blowing the big ten game ...I think how we finished left a sour taste in everyone mouth to make sure we finished strong and we had a great off season leading into last year
So I felt the seeds for a major improvement from 2018-2019 to 2019-2020 were there and we wound make the jump...
When I look at 2019-2020...and what we can be in 2020-2021 there are a couple of considerations I look at for what we really accomplished last year
1.) thought the games decided in the last couple of minutes, we still lacked some maturity and, in the net sum, thought we lost a couple more than we won. It’s not perfect metrics. But looking back at the game...thought a more mature Rutgers team
Last year could have netted out maybe 2 more wins than we had.
2.) I look at the margin of defeat we
Had, (5.7 ppg lowest in the big ten, by far)....and that all nine of our big ten losses were teams that were going to dance...so we were really really competitive...and a tough tough out.
3.) we really went as Myles Johnson went last year. When he was in foul trouble, we were in trouble. Pike did a masterful job of keeping him on the court the last 8-12 minutes of games ...and you saw what he meant to the defense. With cliff, we don’t have that weakness
4.) we came in last year saying ...we lost our top scorer ...how are we going to replace him. Well, we did. As much as yeboah meant to us last year ...his ten points a game will be absorbed
5.) lastly...we danced and missed the real Geo Baker for nearly a month. Let that sink in as a season with covid approaches and what our depth means
So...in final, when I look at last year ...I saw a 20-11 team at the beginning of the year ...
What did I think would have likely happened if covid doesn’t hit
I , that I thought would win a game against Michigan, give a hot Wisconsin fits before losing on Friday in the big ten tournament...and a 8/9 seed where we win a game in the dance...and the give a major scare (if not pull of the upset ) to a 1 seed
With that back drop...felt we would have been a round of 32 team with a 22-13 record...and painfully close to being a sweet 16 team...and a team that left a couple of wins on the floor that would have cost them A higher seed in the tournament ...and a better chance Of making the sweet 16
So....what am I predicting for 2020-2021...built on a lot of assumptions and assumptions of no one getting majorly COVID 29 sick and staying relatively injury free....
We get better individually, as a collective team and maturity makes a difference
a 14-6 big ten record if we get 20
Games in
Predicting a 7-0 out of conference record assuming we add three more non power five games to the OOC (Or even if the hall is added )
21-6....(which if we played four more out of confrence games in a normal year , would have been 24-7...a four game improvement from 2019-2020)
So even with some games likely cancelled...I think we will build on last years successbe a more mature team and win more of those close games to propel us to the REAL prediction
( and yes....I’ll break down the player minutes and ppg prediction in another thread )
And the real prediction ....
What do we do in the NCAA tournament ?
1.) first....We officially break the NCAA drought of 30 years with a bang.....
2.) We do enough in the regular season to earn 3/4/5 seeding line for the NCAA tourney....
3.)And .....we will win playing in the NCAA regionals in the sweet 16/elite 8. And maybe, just maybe, if we get the right seed and the right match up ....”1976” can happen THIS year...
(With the possibility of everyone coming back with a bigger goal for 2021-2022) ...
Enjoy the ride ...it’s going to be fun
Go RU!
Last year ....I predicted a 20-11 record and a NCAA bid....
A lot of my premise on last year prediction came that the 14-17 record we had a couple of years ago, with maturity, could have just as easily been 17-14 and a NiT bid. The Iowa loss from the corner, the penn state loss at the end of the year, thiam’s arrest, and then blowing the big ten game ...I think how we finished left a sour taste in everyone mouth to make sure we finished strong and we had a great off season leading into last year
So I felt the seeds for a major improvement from 2018-2019 to 2019-2020 were there and we wound make the jump...
When I look at 2019-2020...and what we can be in 2020-2021 there are a couple of considerations I look at for what we really accomplished last year
1.) thought the games decided in the last couple of minutes, we still lacked some maturity and, in the net sum, thought we lost a couple more than we won. It’s not perfect metrics. But looking back at the game...thought a more mature Rutgers team
Last year could have netted out maybe 2 more wins than we had.
2.) I look at the margin of defeat we
Had, (5.7 ppg lowest in the big ten, by far)....and that all nine of our big ten losses were teams that were going to dance...so we were really really competitive...and a tough tough out.
3.) we really went as Myles Johnson went last year. When he was in foul trouble, we were in trouble. Pike did a masterful job of keeping him on the court the last 8-12 minutes of games ...and you saw what he meant to the defense. With cliff, we don’t have that weakness
4.) we came in last year saying ...we lost our top scorer ...how are we going to replace him. Well, we did. As much as yeboah meant to us last year ...his ten points a game will be absorbed
5.) lastly...we danced and missed the real Geo Baker for nearly a month. Let that sink in as a season with covid approaches and what our depth means
So...in final, when I look at last year ...I saw a 20-11 team at the beginning of the year ...
What did I think would have likely happened if covid doesn’t hit
I , that I thought would win a game against Michigan, give a hot Wisconsin fits before losing on Friday in the big ten tournament...and a 8/9 seed where we win a game in the dance...and the give a major scare (if not pull of the upset ) to a 1 seed
With that back drop...felt we would have been a round of 32 team with a 22-13 record...and painfully close to being a sweet 16 team...and a team that left a couple of wins on the floor that would have cost them A higher seed in the tournament ...and a better chance Of making the sweet 16
So....what am I predicting for 2020-2021...built on a lot of assumptions and assumptions of no one getting majorly COVID 29 sick and staying relatively injury free....
We get better individually, as a collective team and maturity makes a difference
a 14-6 big ten record if we get 20
Games in
Predicting a 7-0 out of conference record assuming we add three more non power five games to the OOC (Or even if the hall is added )
21-6....(which if we played four more out of confrence games in a normal year , would have been 24-7...a four game improvement from 2019-2020)
So even with some games likely cancelled...I think we will build on last years successbe a more mature team and win more of those close games to propel us to the REAL prediction
( and yes....I’ll break down the player minutes and ppg prediction in another thread )
And the real prediction ....
What do we do in the NCAA tournament ?
1.) first....We officially break the NCAA drought of 30 years with a bang.....
2.) We do enough in the regular season to earn 3/4/5 seeding line for the NCAA tourney....
3.)And .....we will win playing in the NCAA regionals in the sweet 16/elite 8. And maybe, just maybe, if we get the right seed and the right match up ....”1976” can happen THIS year...
(With the possibility of everyone coming back with a bigger goal for 2021-2022) ...
Enjoy the ride ...it’s going to be fun
Go RU!